Week 1 NFL DFS Slate Breakdown
A breakdown of the upcoming Sunday NFL DFS slate, with an emphasis on putting together a single high-floor lineup on DraftKings.
If you read this article on a web browser rather than from your inbox, you’ll have quick links at the top to navigate between games quickly.
Friday Update
Massive value has opened up in Cincinnati. Tee Higgins is now listed as doubtful, and that brings Andrei Iosivas $3,000 firmly into play. Ja’Marr Chase is also not a sure-fire bet to play, as his contract situation is still up in the air. They had said that if he does play, he will be limited. So, Iosivas is going to be out there a ton, and that’s a great thing to have at the minimum price tag. He’s close to a lock into the lineup.
Game Links
Intro
I am not a football bro. But I am an aspiring football bro. It’s probably just the buzz of a new season starting, and I am worried that the buzz will wear off. But while I have it, I want to indulge it.
So, I’m going to write a week one DFS slate analysis piece and see how it goes. Feedback will be greatly appreciated. If this is something that is easily gotten elsewhere, and I’m not adding anything to the world, then I will stop doing it. But if people find it valuable (and, namely, will be willing to subscribe or continue their subscription through the baseball offseason because of it) - that will motivate me to do more and more NFL stuff this year.
This will be long. It will also be free for this week. The Substack app has a nice feature where it can read you the piece, so you can take advantage of that on a commute or a run or whatever. Let’s go.
Disclaimers
I am starting with limited knowledge. I do not pay a ton of attention through the offseason, and I pay basically no attention to college football. That leaves a pretty big gap in my knowledge until we get a few weeks into the season, and we can start using the NFL data available to us.
But I am good with numbers, I know how to think through an NFL slate, and I think I can be moderately entertaining while writing. I hope those three things will carry me through.
The Goal
If you read my baseball DFS stuff, you know I’m a #monogamist. I’m a one-lineup man. We are going through these games with the intent of creating a single DFS (DraftKings) lineup that puts up a 25th-percentile score or better. If the lineup cashes in double-ups, we call that a win.
I’ve reserved these entries ahead of week one:
$10 Hundo
$5 contest with friends
$5 Massive Single Entry Double Up
A bunch of $1 or $2 head-to-heads
And that’s all I’m doing. Most of my play will be head-to-head. So that tells you the story there - my picks will not be to maximize the ceiling of the lineup; they will be to maximize the floor without giving up a ton of that ceiling.
We are playing the best plays. Not trying to get cute, not trying to hit the home run, just trying to beat most of the people who are competing against us. Let’s get this going.
DFS Pillars
Despite my lack of NFL expertise (compared to my MLB stuff, at least), experience is the best teacher - and I have played NFL DFS and listened to people smarter than me for many years. And you learn some lessons in that time. So, I will summarize them.
#1 Play the Best Plays
Football is more projectable than baseball, meaning that projections will be more accurate at the weekly level. In baseball, you can have a guy in the best spot imaginable and can still fail due to the randomness of the game. That happens a lot less frequently in football. We will come across guys who are wildly mispriced due to a change in their opportunity (an injury to a teammate, namely). We will not be fading those spots because we are afraid of the high ownership. We are going to play the best plays and not worry about what other people are doing.
#2 Always Consider Upside
Point one is the most important, but this is an important secondary thing to consider. We might find a $4,500 running back who steps into the lead-back role and projects very well because of it. However, an important consideration is how much upside he has. If he’s a 250-pound bruiser with no role in the passing game on a team that doesn’t project to score many points, you might want to take a pass on that in favor of other options (who might project worse per dollar) that have a lot more upside. We want to give ourselves as many chances as possible to get that guy who goes off for 35 points in our lineup. Those types of play can get you to the cash line all by themselves.
#3 Correlations are Key
If you think a quarterback will throw for 325 yards and three touchdowns, then it often makes sense to draft one of his pass catchers along with him. Further, if you think a game is going to be a shootout and go over 60 total points, you will want to consider grabbing multiple guys from the game - guys from both offenses.
A long touchdown pass is good for the guy who threw it and the guy who caught it, but it’s also good for the opposing offense. They get back on the field in a hurry to score more points.
This is less important for us, given the way we’re playing this. I want to beat 70% of people; I don’t care much about going for first place. If you’re trying to win a million dollars - then you want to stack games almost every time. But we’ll still do our share of game stacking as the season goes on, I’m sure.
Game by Game Previews
The game lines are key. There’s so much information baked into the spreads and over/unders. We can use those spreads and O/U values to calculate how many points each team is projected to score.
Team Implied Points = ((OverUnder)/2 - (Spread/2))
We will cite these marks for each game and use that as a launching point. Here are the week one numbers.
Panthers @ Saints
Total: 40.5
Line: Saints -4
Game Environment
The nice thing about NFL DFS is that the game environment is king. In baseball, we don’t care if the Yankees game has an over/under of 7.5; we still have to consider a guy like Aaron Judge, as he can put up a huge score without the rest of his team doing anything. That’s less true in football; it’s hard for an individual to have a big game without other big games happening around him - and vice versa.
The point is that the over/under of the game is extremely important in NFL DFS. We can use the O/U as a filter. That isn’t to say we want to immediately write off a game like this, with a low O/U and two bad offenses - but it is to say we can save some time and delve less deeply into it.
But it’s week one, and I’m still figuring stuff out. So, I will try to teach myself some things as we go through this. But I will save us all some words when I can; I’m not here to write something that takes you 90 minutes to get through.
Quarterbacks
We are looking for one or both of two things when drafting a QB
High floor on a low price tag
Huge ceiling
If we can get both, fantastic. But Derek Carr is the Saints’ QB. He checks neither of those boxes. We can quickly move on.
Bryce Young is on the other side. He had a terrible rookie season after being a first-rounder out of Alabama (I didn’t even have to look that up - shout out to me).
He was dead last in the league in yards per attempt and topped out at 41 rush yards all year. There’s no way we’re touching him.
Running Backs
There are two things that can crush a running back.
Split workload
Bad team environment
Both of those points get a big fat checkmark with the Panthers. Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard project to split the workload, so it’s another easy write-off.
Alvin Kamara ($6,700) is the first player to whom we have to pay some attention. He has long been the keystone in the Saints offense, but now he’s an ancient keystone at the ridiculous age of 29. Last year, he averaged just 3.8 yards per carry but did grab 5.8 balls per game in the pass game. The reason we can’t play Kamara is the game environment and the fact that he projects for just a 41% share of their rush attempts. We have guys like Jordan Mims, Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill all projecting to take some carries away. Kamara projects for 14.5 inefficient touches and will have a tough time finding the endzone with all of these other red zone options they have - he’s a pretty quick fade even with all of that said.
Pass Catchers
I was under the impression that Derek Carr showed up in New Orleans halfway through the season last year after being unceremoniously given the boot in Las Vegas, or Oakland, or wherever they were. But it turns out that happened two years ago. Here’s how he dispersed the ball to his wideouts last year:
Chris Olave: 121 targets, 12.3 ADoT
Alvim Kamara: 81 targets, 0.0 ADoT
Rashid Shaheed: 69 targets, 13.7 ADoT
Juwan Johnson: 49 targets, 7.9 ADoT
Taysom Hill: 38 targets, 5.3 ADoT
I cut the list short there, as these are the guys we’re still dealing with in New Orleans in 2024. You can see that Chris Olave $6,600 is a true alpha WR.
It is probably not of much use to talk about defensive metrics from last year since I would assume most of these defensive units have changed substantially. For what it’s worth, Carolina was pretty good against the pass last year, ranking sixth-best in the league at 6.5 yards per pass attempt.
Defensive stuff aside, it’s useful enough to point out that the Saints are implied for just 22.25 points, and that ranks 17th out of 32 teams playing in week one. Not bad, but not good.
Recap/Targets
The Panthers are completely off the board for me.
The one play on the Saints I’d consider is Chris Olave. There are no questions that he’s the guy the Saints want to go to, he had a very nice rookie season, and the price is very affordable. He’s the #7 projecting WR right now, while being just the 12th-priciest.
Steelers @ Falcons
Total: 40.5
Line: Falcons -3
Game Environment
We are starting very slowly. The Falcons might be interesting this year with their new-look offense. We’ll take a look at that just to get familiar.
The Steelers come into this year looking like an ass sandwich as far fantasy point potential goes. They have it all going.
→ Run Heavy Scheme
→ Bad QB Play
→ Good Defense
They are going to run a ton of clock and not allow much defensively. I see no way there’s an optimal DFS play coming from this game, but let’s go through the components.
Quarterbacks
It’s Russell Wilson ($5,400) against Kirk Cousins ($6,100). Russ is probably just bad. He has the lowest projection on the slate. As for Cousins, he’s a little bit more interesting - but still not someone we want to consider given that he’s in a brand new system, coming off of injury, and has never been a high-ceiling fantasy QB. Ideally, we are looking for a QB who can score points with their legs to give us some extra floor, and that is not to be found in this game.
Running Backs
The Steelers will try to run a ton this year, and they’ll split the work between Najee Harris ($5,600) and Jaylen Warren ($5,600). Najee is the starter and the short yardage guy, while Warren is the more explosive back who can also get some work in the passing games (projecting for 3.3 catches). Given the Steelers’ style and their implied total of 18.75 points, it’s easy to cross both of these guys off the list.
We do have a very interesting name on the other side in Bijan Robinson ($7,700). He was choked out last year by Tyler Allgeier ($5,000) and some questionable coaching stuff. Allgeier is still hanging around, but that big-bad-meany Arthur Smith is now gone (and coaching on the other sideline in this game), so there’s hope that Robinson can be let loose. He was probably a top-five pick in your season-long fantasy draft, so we’ll have to give him some consideration every week.
The Steelers’ defense last year allowed 0.366 fantasy points per snap to opposing RBs, which was the 10th-worst in the league. They hardly gave up anything to RBs in the passing game (69 catches, 10th-best in the league), and they were pretty good overall at keeping points off the board.
I would say it’s a slightly below-average matchup for Bijan to get started.
The reason to play him is if you think this is the beginning of his massive breakout season, where he’ll be a total fantasy stud, a CMC-esque player. He’s the second most expensive RB on the slate, but the prices are always pretty low at the beginning of the year. $7,700 is not a hard tag to get to when building a lineup. If he’s truly going to be a guy who goes for 16-20 carries and 4-7 catches per game and gets the goalline work, then this price is too low.
We don’t know if that’s who he is right now, so it’s a bit of a leap of faith. I can’t even really say he has a fantastic floor, the workload stuff is that unclear.
Bijan is making my list, and then we’ll parse through the position at the end.
Pass Catchers
The Steelers are just so easy to ignore, so we’re… just going to… ignore them.
The Falcons have a very good wide receiver in Drake London ($6,000). He went for 905 yards last year but caught only two touchdowns. His 112 targets led the team by a good margin, the 11.3 ADoT was good, and his 23% TPRR (target per route run) is also a positive mark. And all of that was with poor QB play from Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.
From what the smart heads are saying, we could be looking at a big season from London in his third year, finally getting targets from a competent NFL QB.
Do I want to jump in on him in week one? No, not really! There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense with Bijan as well as Kyle Pitts ($4,600) and downfield threat Darnell Mooney ($4,200).
If I’m going anywhere else in this offense, it could be Pitts. He projects nicely for a dozen points. That’s a 2.61 value mark, and that leads the slate for tight ends. Pitts is talented and should benefit from Cousins’ arrival as well. It’s quite possible this is as cheap as he is all year - he’s in play.
Recap/Targets
I don’t imagine a Steelers player gets into my single lineup anytime soon, but I will be watching the game and rooting for them.
I think Kyle Pitts is in play for me, and Bijan Robinson is a secondary option if we have some cash to spend at RB and want some big play upside.
Cardinals @ Bills
Total: 48
Line: Bills -6
Game Environment
This is one of the main slate’s big games. There are three games here with a big over/under:
JAX/MIA: 49.5
IND/HOU: 48.5
ARI/BUF: 48
So we will focus a lot on these three games.
The Cardinals played fast last year, ranking fourth in pace by plays per second while possessing the ball. Buffalo played pretty slow. They were in the bottom five there, and their pass rate came down from years prior to 61%. There’s a chance they get even more run-heavy and slower in pace because of the lack of wide receivers they have, but we can’t say that for sure yet.
The game total of 48 tells us most of the story; this is a very good game to target, provided we can find some players here with predictable roles.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,000) is the best fantasy quarterback in the game, and he gets to start his season in a very nice game environment. He threw for more than 4,300 yards last season and ran for more than 500 yards with 29 touchdowns through the air and 15 on the ground. The floor is great, the ceiling is great; he checks all of the boxes.
The trouble is the price tag. Paying $8,000 for our QB makes the rest of the lineup tough to fill out if we don’t have some obvious values, so we can’t say he’s a lock or anything like that.
We also don’t know how well the Bills offense will work. They were not all that good down the stretch last year, and Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis have both departed. There is a fair reason to wonder if Allen’s passing work could be capped a bit. The flip side of that is that he could end up running more.
Arizona’s defense gave up the fourth-most yards per play last year, and the Bills have the highest implied total on the slate - so I think we’re going to be considering Allen at the end of this.
Kyle Murray ($6,400) is much more affordable. He got a late start to his season last year and averaged 18 fantasy points per game in his eight starts. He didn’t run as much as he had in the past, but it’s likely that had something to do with the injuries. He rushed at least five times in seven of his eight games but topped out at 51 yards. His best passing yardage game was just 262 yards, so he was far from a fantasy stud last season.
The Cardinals’ offense is certainly in a better place this year. Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,200) joins the team. They get a full year with last year’s breakout tight end Trey McBride ($6,100) as the starter, and Kyler should be in a better place health-wise.
So, this will be a potentially very exciting offense. The game line implies just 21 points for them, which is in the bottom quadrant of the slate. That’s because the Bills defense is good. They allowed the seventh-least fantasy points against last year (CLE/NYJ/KAN/DAL/BAL/CAR) and were a top-ten unit against the pass.
I think the story on the Arizona side will be that there’s a lot of upside in this spot but not much security, given the Bills’ tough defense and the lack of data we have on this current offensive unit.
Running Backs
We like to draft running backs from teams that are big favorites. The Bills aren’t a huge favorite in this spot, but they have a clear edge according to the betting lines. James Cook took almost half of their rushing attempts last season and has even less competition in the backfield this year (it would appear to me, at least).
The problem with him is how many touchdowns Josh Allen vultures from him. Cook found the endzone just six times all year, which makes him a tough sell for DFS.
If he does become a useful DFS asset, it will be because his target share goes up to compensate for the missing WRs. He was at a decent 10% target share last year, and that could make its way up toward 15% or so. But we’re not going to be playing him in this spot.
On the other side, it’s the extremely old James Conner ($6,200). We can’t pay that price for him and his eleven-point projection, as the Cardinals don’t figure to lead much in this game. That’s an easy backfield to fade.
Pass Catchers
The Bills are in an interesting situation with Diggs and Davis gone. It’s unclear how the target shares will hash out. The projection is:
Kincaid 19%
Coleman 17%
Samuel 16%
Shakir 13%
Cook 11%
Knox 9%
MVS 4%
Davis 4%
Johnon 3%
Hollins 2%
That makes the Bills one of the very few teams with a tight end projecting for the top target share. Dalton Kincaid ($5,800) is a tight end we will consider. He went for a 21% target share in the second half of last season. That was aided by Dawson Knox missing quite a bit of time, but Kincaid was always going to be someone who saw more and more work in the passing game with experience. So he’s firmly in play.
The only guy that you could maybe throw a dart at would be Keon Coleman ($5,000), but this will be his first real NFL game, so I don’t think it’s wise of us to go there until we have some more information about how the Bills will attack.
The same is true of Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,200). We have never seen him in a regular-season NFL game, so he’s hard to project. The price tag reflects the expectations, but it’s not a bet I’m willing to make since I’m going after the floor, and the Bills don’t present the greatest matchup.
Trey McBride ($6,100) led all tight ends except for David Njoku in fantasy points scored after week seven last year. He earned a team-leading 85 targets and 27% target share in that time last year. That could drop down with Harrison on the team, but McBride is certainly in the game’s top three fantasy tight ends. So we’ll consider both guys in our final build, but right now, I think I prefer the Pitts play for the cheaper price.
Recap/Targets
This is a game to target, it’s just not super clear what spots are best. Both offenses look different than last year, so we can’t be overly confident about where the ball will go and how efficient each unit will be.
Josh Allen ($8,000) is the top QB on the slate by raw points, so he’s in the conversation, and I’m also adding both tight ends (Dalton Kincaid $5,800 and Trey McBride $6,100) to our final player pool for choosing from.
Titans @ Bears
Total: 45
Line: Bears -4.5
Game Environment
We have a middling game total, but again, we’re in a situation with two offenses that look completely different than last year. There will be some bros out there who speak confidently about how these teams will attack. And those guys know football better than me, and they probably even watch the preseason - so maybe they’d be onto something. But I can only play with what I have (the data from last year) - and that’s a whole lot of nothing as far as projecting these two teams this week goes. I’d call it a neutral game environment.
Quarterbacks
It’s Caleb Williams ($5,900) and Will Levis ($5,300). Williams was the first overall pick, and Levis was in a porn or something, so I’m not very fond of either guy.
There’s no way one of these two will end up being my quarterback this week, so we can save some time with this game.
Running Backs
I am pretty certain the Titans’ defense is bad. That is meaningful, obviously, but an offense can only go as far as the QB takes them - and it’s impossible to be confident that Williams can lead an NFL offense to points right now.
D’Andre Swift ($6,000) is on the Bears now, another big name that changed teams this offseason. He projects to share carries with Khalil Herbert ($5,200) and Roschon Johnson ($4,400). It is reasonable to think that there will be a lot of check-downs from Williams to running backs (or is that reasonable? I don’t know; we’ll have to wait and see!), but I can’t get behind paying $6,000 for Swift with this much uncertainty swirling.
The Titans have Tony Pollard ($5,900) projecting for around 13 carries and two catches, with Tyjae Spears ($5,100) playing a good bit as well. Pollard was inefficient last year, which was a surprise, and now he’s on an offense that figures to struggle to move the ball. Not a backfield to target.
Pass Catchers
I’m writing a lot of words to say there’s nobody to play from this game. DJ Moore ($6,500) is the Bears’ main guy, but Keenan Allen ($6,900) joins the party now - and he’s long been a bit of a target vacuum. We can’t expect great things from the Bears passing game, and even if we could, we wouldn’t know exactly where the ball will go.
I should be more focused. My purpose is to get through all the games and find the best plays. Once it’s clear that none of the best plays are in a given game, it’s probably not worth the extra words to fully explain why. We will learn a lot about the Bears from this game, but for now, there are no plays to be spoken of. Let’s move on.
Recap/Targets
Full fade.
Patriots @ Bengals
Total: 41
Line: Bengals -8.5
Game Environment
The Bengals are back to full health after a disappointing 9-8 season last year in which Joe Burrow missed a lot of time. There are some still question marks floating around Ja’Marr Chase regarding his contract situation, but for now, it seems like he’ll suit up for week one.
Cincinnati has one of the highest implied totals on the board at 24.5, so we might find some plays on that side of the ball. The Patriots played very slowly last year and did not play in many great games for DFS purposes. The Bengals have the advantage of having a concentrated pass attack, with most of the work going to their top two wideouts, so that will keep them in consideration for roster spots most weeks.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow ($6,500) is the fifth most expensive QB on the slate, and he does not give us that rushing floor we’re looking for. The time to play Burrow would be as a stack with a wide receiver or two in a game you could see developing into a back-and-forth shootout. This is not that type of game.
On the other side is Jacoby Brissett, who is not someone we’ll consider, given his mediocrity and the Patriots being in a tough spot here. Brissett started two games last year, scoring 14 and nine fantasy points. No thanks!
Running Backs
We like to take a look at running backs in games where their team is a big favorite, and we have one of those cases in this spot with Zack Moss ($5,800) and Chase Brown ($5,000). They project to share the carries pretty evenly, so we don’t like that, and they both also project to factor into the passing game. I think you could get a pretty nice score from them collectively, but since we don’t have a clear RB1, this backfield is a fade even in the potentially very nice game script.
On the Patriots’ side, we have a clear-cut workhorse RB in Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,900). He projects for 15 touches, and the ceiling is pretty decent with him, given his role in the passing game. He caught 5+ balls on four occasions last year. Even with that workload, the Patriots offense really kept him down last year. He scored just four touchdowns and exceeded 20 fantasy points only twice. So he’s not going to do it for us either.
Pass Catchers
The Bengals project to send most of the work to two guys - Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800) and Tee Higgins ($6,100). The Patriots defense ended up having good marks against the passing game last year. They were tenth-best in passing yards allowed and seventh-best in yards allowed per attempt.
That doesn’t shut the door on playing Chase or Higgins. I particularly like Higgins with the price tag and some of the questions floating around about Chase. Maybe Higgins will get a few extra looks from Burrow since Chase missed all of the preseason work. Either way, Higgins and his 6.5 target projection with his big-play upside is pretty nice for $6,100.
We don’t have to spend any time on the Patriots. There’s nobody to like; Brissett just isn’t a QB who generates big scores from his pass catchers.
Recap/Targets
Tee Higgins and potentially Ja’Marr Chase are going on the list due to the solid game environment and the Bengals super concentrated pass game.
Texans @ Colts
Total: 48.5
Line: Texans -2.5
Game Environment
This is one of the big games on the slate. We have a high total and a tight spread. We also have several high-upside fantasy players on these two teams.
On the Houston side, we have a decent idea of what they’ll do. Last year, they threw the ball 62% of the time. That was in the top third of the league, but their pass rate over expectation was actually -3%, and that was in the middle of the pack. with C.J. Stroud having a full season under his belt and the addition of Stefon Diggs, the smart money is on them throwing the ball significantly more this year. So that’s what we should expect right out of the gate. Last year, the Texans ranked in the top ten in pace.
The Colts are less clear since they played almost the full season last year without their quarterback, Anthony Richardson. In the first five weeks when he was in there, they were run-heavy with a -8.4% Pass% OE. It’s a strong bet that they’ll prefer to run the ball a lot this year as well. That’s clear just from the personnel with a stud running back in Jonathan Taylor and a running QB in Richardson. Even while they were running a bunch last year, their pace was still quite fast. In those first five weeks, I have them as the fourth-quickest pace at 26.1 seconds per play.
So we have two capable offenses that like to play fast.
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud ($7,500) is a devout Christian who always says Christian stuff. I like that a lot. I’m a big fan of Christians. Will I let that influence my DFS lineup? Yeah, maybe. But probably not. He is good, but he doesn’t fit the DFS model for me for two reasons.
He doesn’t run (157 rush yards all season last year)
He’s expensive ($7,500)
We would need a massive passing game from him to pay off this price tag, and it’s just not optimal to count on that. If some bad variance hits and the Texans run for all of their touchdowns, it won’t really matter what else Stroud does - it won’t be a good score.
The other side is a bit more interesting with Anthony Richardson ($6,300). He played two full games last year in weeks one and four and did this:
Week 1: 223 pass yards, 1 TD, 10 rushes, 40 yards, TD, 21 DraftKings points
Week 4: 200 pass yards, 2 TD, 10 rushes, 56 yards, TD, 30 DraftKings points
Grabbing 25 points from him would be a smash at $6,300, so he’s certainly on the list. He has a real 40-point upside if this game turns into a shootout.
Running Backs
If we are right about Houston throwing more, then that would be bad for the running backs. That’s the bad news. The good news is that they have someone we can trust for volume. Joe Mixon ($6,600) projects for 62% of the rush attempts and a decent 9% target share. He’s a solid floor back, and you would think he’s highly likely to grab a touchdown since we expect the Texans to score points. He’ll go on the list as a potential play, but that’s more about his floor than his ceiling.
On the other side is Jonathan Taylor ($7,800). He’s a sure-fire fade for me at that price tag. He is a much better play when Anthony Richardson isn’t in there since Richardson will presumedly run a bunch when they’re close to the goal line.
Pass Catchers
We like the Texans’ pass attack, but they have a bit of a three-headed monster that makes it tough to parse.
Nico Collins $7,000 (21% projected target share)
Stefon Diggs $6,700 (21% projected target share)
Tank Dell $5,500 (20% projected target share)
They even have a tight end that is decent in the pass game in Dalton Schultz $4,900 (14% projected target share). The optimal situation to play receivers from is a concentrated offense, and this is not one of those. Here’s what the fantasy points looked like last year when both Collins and Dell played together:
Week # | Collins / Dell
1: 14 / 6
2: 31 / 20
3: 5 / 29
4: 39 / 4
5: 7 / 8
8: 7 / 6
9: 14 / 33
11: 14 / 32
12: 26 / 17
Only twice did they both put up scores we’d like and that was when they were the clear one and two. With Diggs there now and everybody healthy, we just can’t rely on anybody in this spot. I think that takes me off them for my single lineup considerations. I would imagine they score well as a group, and any of the three could have a huge game, but it’s too tough to pick which one, so we’ll go elsewhere for our DFS wide receivers this week.
The Colts are not an offense we’ll typically want to play receivers from, given Richardson’s run-heavy ways and his shakiness in the pass game. However, there is more than just that to consider. We have an injury situation with Josh Downs ($4,800) looking questionable. If he’s out, that would send Adonai Mitchell ($3,800) into a role he was not priced for. So we’ll keep him on our list while we wait for more information on Downs.
Recap/Targets
Good chance I play Anthony Richardson $6,300 at QB. This is a great game enviornment and he provides the rushing floor I’m looking for at a reasonable price tag. There could be a potential stack with his teammate Adonai Mitchell if Josh Downs indeed misses the game.
I like Joe Mixon as a floor play, and I like the Texans passing attack - but it’s too spread out to choose from for DFS.
Three potential plays from this game, and I could see playing all three of them in the same lineup.
Jaguars @ Dolphins
Total: 49.5
Line: Dolphins -3
Game Environment
We go right into another very strong environment for DFS points. The Dolphins are the league’s most explosive offense. Even with a decent defense, they are prone to getting themselves into shootouts just because of how quickly they can score. This is the highest total on the slate, and the spread is surprisingly tight.
Jacksonville’s defense was not strong last year, as they gave up 0.278 DraftKings points per snap, the fifth-most in the league. That does not bode well for their ability to stop this Miami offense, and the three-point spread does bode well for the Jags ability to keep pace. This is a very enticing game.
Quarterbacks
Despite the fact that we think the Dolphins can score a ton of points, I have no interest in Tua Tagovailoa at $7,000. That’s just too much money for a guy who maxed out at 15 rushing yards last year. He needs 300 yards and multiple TDs to make this price work, so that’s not the QB for me. He’s a guy you would want some of if you’re building 20 lineups to try to win a million dollars; the Tua → Tyreek stack makes a lot of sense - but that’s not what I’m doing!
Trevor Lawrence ($6,200) is a little bit more interesting. He runs a little bit (three times went over 40 rush yards last year), although I believe that comes more in the form of scrambling rather than designed runs. His ceiling is pretty weak, but he did show a pretty good floor last year, and the price tag is in the range I’m looking for.
I doubt I’ll end up with him. The Dolphins were fine against the pass last year (7.2 yards per attempt). I could see Lawrence going for a 300+ yard passing game if the Dolphins pull ahead early on, but he’s just not quite checking all of the boxes. The main point is that he’s just $100 cheaper than Richardson, and I like Richardson - so I’ll find that extra $100.
Running Backs
We have a volume monster on the Jacksonville side in Travis Etienne ($7,200). That is a heavy price tag, however, and right now, there are a handful of backs projecting better than him for cheaper. But he’s a pretty safe play with a projection for 16 touches (13 rushes and three catches). For what it’s worth, Miami was strong against running backs last year, allowing just 333 points to running backs, the ninth-best mark in the league.
On the other side is De’Von Achane ($6,800) and Raheem Mostert ($6,400). Achane missed a lot of time last year, and that helped Mostert lead the league in touchdowns. When Achane was on the field, he was having some huge games. He put up big totals of 54, 30, 25, 25, and 27 points last year, so those were five massive games in 12 tries. The flip side of that was a low floor where he put up scores of 12, nine, and four points in fully healthy games. Touches will be lower for Achane, but the explosiveness is a reason not to care quite as much about that. I want some more floor for the price tag, but I’m not willing to completely write him off.
Mostert is probably too expensive for a guy who is so touchdown-dependent. The projections have this pretty close to an even split of the work between these two, so if Mostert does not score a touchdown, it’s likely going to be a pretty bad fantasy score. I’m not into it.
Pass Catchers
A general rule that I’ll be following is that I typically want to get one of the stud WRs into my lineup. Tyreek Hill ($8,700) is certainly one of those studs, and he starts the season off in this very friendly matchup.
Some alpha WR’s against the Jags last year:
Michael Pittman Week 1: 23.7 points
Drake London Week 4: 11.8 points
Michael Pittman Week 6: 22.9 points
Chris Olave Week 7: 12.7 points
Stefon Diggs Week 5: 27.1 points
Nico Collins Week 12: 26.4 points
Ja’Marr Chase Week 13: 34.6 points
Mike Evans Wek 16: 27.6 points
I don’t want to get hung up on last year’s defensive stats, but clearly, this was a unit that was susceptible to the big WR game.
So I’m way in on Hill. Right now, he’s my favorite play.
Jaylen Waddle ($6,300) does most of the rest of the work in the passing game. These two last year combined for a 49% target share and 68% air yard share, and that was with Waddle missing a few games. Since I am trying to get to Hill, that takes Waddle off the page for me, and I don’t think I’d want to play Waddle regardless - playing alongside Tyreek brings a low floor.
The Jaguars have quite a few weapons to throw the ball to.
Evan Engram ($5,500): 19% projected target share
Christian Kirk ($5,500): 18%
Brian Thomas ($4,700): 17%
Gabe Davis ($4,500): 15%
Engram led them in targets last year with 144, but he finished with a low ADoT of five yards, which lowers his ceiling quite a bit.
Kirk is the play I’d consider the most. He missed time last year but had very nice numbers in his 12 games.
→ 7 targets per game
→ 9.9-yard ADoT
→ 22% target/route
The Jaguars replaced Calvin Ridley with this rookie, Brian Thomas. It’s unclear to me how much Thomas will play, and Kirk does currently have a questionable tag as he gets back from a calf injury. All things considered, though, I like the idea of playing Kirk.
Thomas is cheap ($4,700), by the way, but he’s too much of an unknown to invest money on this early in the year.
Recap/Targets
This is one of the main games to target. I can’t get justify either QB play, but I will definitely have a pass catcher or two from this game. That will probably be Tyreek Hill, and I might also add Christian Kirk to the lineup as well.
Vikings @ Giants
Total: 41.5
Line: Vikings -1
Game Environment
After two very interesting games, we get another stinker - so that should help me save some time.
It’s a tight spread but a very low total. The implied score of the game is Vikings 21.5 to the Giants 20. The Giants struggled offensively last year, and the Vikings enter this season with Sam Darnold as their starting QB. It’s unlikely we get much fantasy point scoring from this game, but let’s take a look to see if there are any one-off plays.
Quarterbacks
No chance on Darnold. The projections like Daniel Jones ($5,400) quite a bit. He is the #1 value QB on the slate, projecting at 210 pass yards and 37 rushing yards. If he can find a way to throw a couple of touchdowns, you’d be cooking - but the floor is low. He missed most of last year but had just one double-digit fantasy point output in his seven games, so we’re passing here.
Running Backs
We have an ugly situation with the Giants. Devin Singletary ($5,700) is their main guy. He’s projecting for 44% of the carries and 8% of the targets, but that price seems way too much for such a low-floor, low-ceiling back.
On the other side is Aaron Jones ($6,500). I want to stick to high-total game environments, but Jones is the one guy who could put up a useful score in this game. There could be a bunch of check-downs from Darnold, and Jones is good in the passing game. You would have to imagine he’s the goal line back as well, so I think there’s a pretty decent ceiling for the guy, even with the low total. All things considered, though, it’s not near an optimal play - he’s probably $500 too expensive.
Pass Catchers
We have Justin Jefferson ($8,400) in this game. He’s probably somewhat QB-proof, meaning he could have a monster season even with Darnold and/or Mullens throwing him the ball. But do I want to play him over Tyreek Hill? Absolutely not!
On the other side, we’ll get to see what all the Malik Nabers ($5,900) hype was about. That is a pretty interesting price tag for the kid, but I don’t want to spend 12% of my salary on a rookie catching passes from Daniel Jones in a 41.5 O/U game.
Recap/Targets
I think Aaron Jones is considerable, but he’s not going to get there for me. I’m ignoring this game in my hunt to build a winning lineup.
Raiders @ Chargers
Total: 42
Line: Chargers -3
Game Environment
This is another ugly one with a total of 42. The Chargers were exciting for fantasy for a while, but it seems that’s over. All of the skill players you think of when you hear the word “Chargers” are no longer there, and I’m not sure how many ribs Justin Herbert has left. The pace is projected to be slow, and neither offense is one that seems to be able to put up a ton of points. So this should be a quick one for us.
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert ($5,800) is a good quarterback, but he’s suddenly without any proven weapons, and he has plantar fascism or whatever you call it. The price tag is low, but there are just too many problems present. There is a real opportunity cost to making a play like this. If you play Herbert at QB, that means you didn’t play Josh Allen or Anthony Richardson - and if one or both of those guys go off, you’re way behind. On the other side is Gardner Minshew ($5,300). It’s the same story there. The price is low enough to where Mineshew could be okay, but the opportunity cost is too much, and this is just not a game from which to draft your quarterback.
Running Backs
For Las Vegas, Zamir White ($5,700) is projected to handle a good bit of the work, projecting for 48% of the carries and a 6% target share. He was the Raiders feature back in the final four games of last year and did this:
Week 15: 17-69-1 rushing, 3-16-0 receiveing, 17.5 points
Week 16: 22-145-0 rushing, 0-0-0 receiving, 17.5 points
Week 17: 20-71-0 rushing, 5-35-0 receiving, 15.6 points
Week 18: 25-112-0 rushing, 1-9-0 receiving, 16.1 points
That’s pretty solid production.
It’s a bad game environment, but there are plenty of worse plays than White.
On the Chargers side, it’s some mixture of Gus Edwards ($5,300), J.K. Dobbins ($4,900), and Kimani Vidal ($4,700). I don’t think any of them would be very interesting even if they were here all alone, so we’re certainly not going to this backfield any time soon.
Pass Catchers
We still have Davante Adams ($7,600) in the league. He managed some huge games last year, even with the bad QB play.
But the floor was not what you want from a very expensive WR. I see no reason to play him - but there probably will be a slate at some point when he’s in the conversation.
The projections’ favorite target on the Raiders is tight end Brock Bowers ($4,500). He’s a rookie out of Georgia. The projections seem to think he’ll be a factor in the pass game. But he’s currently questionable, and we’ve never seen him in the NFL, and Kyle Pitts is almost the same price. So that’s an easy fade.
It’s ugly on the Chargers side as well. Hayden Hurst ($3,000) is very cheap for a tight end who can catch some balls, but I don’t see anywhere near the ceiling we’d want there. The wide receivers there are Ladd McConkey ($4,700), Joshua Palmer ($5,200), and Quentin Johnston ($4,100). None project well, and none are anywhere near trustworthy. Easy fade.
Recap/Targets
Zamir White will go to the bottom of my RB list, but I really want nothing to do with this game.
Broncos @ Seahawks
Total: 41.5
Line: Seahawks -6
Game Environment
Another real crappy game. The Broncos will start a rookie QB and enter the year without much expectation, being a six-point dog to a not-great Seahawks team. Seattle played pretty quick last year, but the Broncos played very slow last year and would figure to do that again, at least early on, with their rookie QB (although Bo Nix is like 34 years old or something, right?).
Quarterbacks
Bo Nix ($5,000) is cheap enough to where the projections like him for a punt QB, but it’s the opportunity cost thing again. Rookies will always have to prove it first before I invest any money in them.
Geno Smith ($5,500) is another cheap QB capable of finding his way into a strong DFS lineup. He had four games over 20 DraftKings points last year. We’d be hoping for 17+ in this spot with this price tag, but his floor is much lower than that.
The Seahawks could put up some points. The Broncos do not have a good defense, and we see that implied in the betting line, with the Hawks being a touchdown favorite. The problem with Smith is that he’s unlikely to be pushed by Nix and the Broncos offense, so there is a very narrow path to 20+ points. No thanks!
Running Backs
The Broncos have a split with Javonte Williams ($5,500) and Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,300). Williams is the starter, but McLaughlin is enough of a threat to ignore both guys.
The Seahawks have a bell-cow in Kenneth Walker ($6,100). He projects for 15 rushes and 2.5 targets. An every-down back as a six-point favorite is a good situation for DFS. Walker did not show a big ceiling last year, having just one game above 25 points and three above 20.
The lower perceived ceiling is a bit of an issue, but this feels like a pretty solid play. He’s going on the list!
Pass Catchers
I can’t possibly play anybody catching passes from a rookie QB like Nix. On the Seattle side, the play would be DK Metcalf ($6,200). He’s the clear #1 there, but he did not show much of a ceiling with Smith last year. He had one monster game, and that’s it. There are many better options in that price range.
I think Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,900) could be a breakout type. We might be surprised by how many targets he earns, and that could make him interesting for next week if the price tag stays around this level. But it’s not this week for JSN.
Recap/Targets
I am really liking the Kenneth Walker play, but that’s it.
Cowboys @ Browns
Total: 42
Line: Browns -2.5
Game Environment
The Cowboys are one of the game’s most exciting offenses. They threw a ton last year, especially down the stretch. They were at a +4% pass rate over expectation, and now they enter 2024 with a weak running back room. We would have to think they’ll be involved in some shootouts this year. However, they open the year in Cleveland against one of the league’s best defenses.
The Browns were the second-best defense against the pass last year (5.9 yards/attempt), and that has the Cowboys projecting for just 19.5 points in week one (probably the lowest they’ll see all year).
Another negative point is that the Browns don’t figure to be an explosive offensive team with Deshaun Watson as their QB, and Nick Chubb missing the first month. So this is a pretty poor game environment to choose from.
Quarterbacks
In theory, Deshaun Watson ($6,000) isn’t the worst play at QB. He is priced low and is in a relatively good spot against the Cowboys’ defense. He played six games last year and maxed out at 21.2 points, but he got over 15 fantasy points four of the six times. He runs a little bit, but not as much as he used to (maxed out at six carries for 45 yards last year). But no, this isn’t the play for us. It’s a bad game environment and a pretty low ceiling on Watson.
Dak Prescott ($7,100) might be the worst QB play on the board for week one, so that’s an easy fade-a-rooni.
Running Backs
We need some data on the Cowboys’ backfield. they have Ezekiel Elliott ($5,800) and Rico Dowdle ($4,600) projecting to split carries, and they also recently signed Dalvin Cook. That, plus the brutal matchup, makes it an easy avoid.
On the Cleveland side, we have Jerome Ford ($5,500) who will be the main guy there until Chubb returns.
Even as the feature-back last year, he reached 20 carries just one time and was in single digits five times, so he’s not someone the Browns are dying to get the ball to. He also didn’t do a ton in the pass game, maxing out at 57 yards and averaging much less than that.
We have a general rule of liking cheap running backs in decent/good matchups who project for more than 15 touches, and Ford fits that bill. There’s a real shot at 80+ yards and a touchdown or two, which would be a smash for $5,500 - so we’ll add him to the list.
Pass Catchers
As mentioned, it’s a bad spot for the Cowboys passing game. However, we do have a tight end in Jake Ferguson ($5,200), who feels a smidge too cheap. He earned himself a bunch of targets last year, especially down the stretch:
You typically don’t find a tight end around $5,000 who projects for more than five targets, and we have that going on here with Ferguson. Last year, the Browns were second-best against wide receivers but ninth-worst against tight ends. I don’t want to take that very seriously. It seems like a stat that would be extremely random, but it’s possible they do filter targets a bit toward the middle of the field. Ferguson is in play, but I’m picking only one tight end, and Kyle Pitts is still cheaper, so that’s who I’d lean toward.
On the Cleveland side, there’s not much to love. Amari Cooper ($6,400) had a massive game to finish the year but was mostly unimpressive, and now he’s 30 years old. David Njoku ($5,600) is another tight end who can score some points. But the price is prohibitive, and the ceiling is low if he doesn’t score a couple of touchdowns - his ADoT with Watson last year was just 1.2 yards.
Recap/Targets
Jerome Ford is the one guy who makes the list, but I imagine I end up without anything from this game.
Commanders @ Bucs
Total: 43
Line: Bucs -3.5
Game Environment
This game falls somewhere in the middle of the pack. There are three high totals on the slate and seven low ones. Both defenses got beat up by the pass pretty good last year (Washington was second-worst in yards per attempt, and Tampa was eighth-worst), and they were both in the bottom half of the league in overall yards per play allowed. It’s also a tight spread, so this one should go down to the wire.
Quarterbacks
It’s Baker Mayfield ($5,600) against Jayden Daniel ($5,700). Mayfield is an easy guy to scratch off for the purpose of building one high-floor lineup. He is fine in a game stack, but he’s not the QB type we’re looking for.
Daniels might be the type we’re looking for. The projection has him running seven times and giving him about a one-third shot at a rushing touchdown. He ran for more than 90 yards per game last season at LSU, so that’s certainly part of his game. There’s a lot of unknown with him in his first-ever NFL game, but the rushing floor and the decent game environment make him interesting nonetheless. I’ll add him to my short list of QBs.
Running Backs
On the Washington side, we have Austin Ekeler ($6,000) in a split with Brian Robinson ($5,200). Robinson figures to be the lead rusher (projected for a dozen attempts), while Ekeler fits more into the passing game (projected for about six carries and four targets). It’s pretty easy to fade this backfield while we wait for more information on the work distribution.
We have a usage back on the Tampa Bay side with Rachaad White ($6,300) setting up nicely. He projects for 14 carries and 3.5 targets, good for a 17-touch projection. He showcased a pretty nice floor last year, especially after that offense got in sync late in the year:
He ranked second in the league in touches last year with 336 (second only to CMC, who had 339). He also took on 39 of the Bucs’ 64 red zone carries last year. So we have ourselves a running back who is
→ Affordable
→ High volume
→ Catches passes
→ Gets goal-line carries
→ Against a bad defense
→ On a favored team
That’s checking most of the boxes! The one he maybe doesn’t check is the ceiling. We didn’t see him exceed 30 points at all last year. But I will say once again - I am more concerned with the floor during this process than the ceiling.
So I’m way in on Rachaad White.
Pass Catchers
It’s easy to ignore the Commanders’ pass catches with an unproven rushing QB as the guy getting them the ball.
On the Bucs side, it’s the same old story. Mike Evans ($7,300) and Chris Godwin ($5,800) dominate the targets. They combined for 49% of the targets and 66% of the air yards last year. Evans had the bigger season (1,255 yards, 13 touchdowns), but Godwin did lead the team in catches. Evans is the down-field guy, and Godwin operates more in the short to mid-range. They project close enough to each other to prefer Godwin for the $1,500 discount, but I doubt either guy makes the finished product. But I will add Godwin to the list because of the sub-$6K price tag.
So there you have it; I was able to cover all of the games. I’ve been populating a player pool as I’ve gone through, and that is below. We do have to draft a team defense. My strategy there is to pick the cheapest viable option. This week, that would seem to be one of these units:
Chargers $2,900
Seahawks $3,400
Bears $3,400
Bengals $3,800
Below is the player pool. I’m not going to build out a lineup with it in this post. There is more stuff I need to read and more to play around with. I will potentially make updates to this post in the next few days, and I’ll tweet out if I’ve done so.
On Monday, I’ll show the lineup I went with and review the results. Adam Levitan always does this with his cash lineup, and I think it’s really fun to see and track. Here’s the list, ordered by the guys I am most inclined to play right now.
Recap/Targets
I’m loving Rachaad White and liking Chris Godwin, and I might even take the cheap price tag on Jayden Daniels.
Target List
QBs
Anthony Richardson $6,300
Jayden Daniel $5,700
Josh Allen $8,000
RBs
Rachaad White $6,300
Bijan Robinson $7,700
Kenneth Walker $6,100
Joe Mixon $6,600
De’Von Achane $6,800
Jerome Ford $5,500
Zamir White $5,700
WRs
Tyreek Hill $8,700
Tee Higgins $6,100
Christian Kirk $5,500
Chris Olave $6,600
Chris Godwin $5,800
Adonai Mitchell $3,800 (if Downs is out)
TEs
Kyle Pitts $4,600
Dalton Kincaid $5,800
Trey McBride $6,100
Jake Ferguson $5,200
DST
Chargers $2,900
Seahawks $3,400
Bears $3,400
Bengals $3,800
Leave a like or a comment if you found this useful. As the season goes on, I will make this more to the point and more data-focused; I didn’t have much data to work with for this first week.
Love all this info Jon - I hope you continue to do this each week as a one lineup build - Your work has helped me in DFS baseball and I’m sure it will with DFS football - great read and thank you!