WEEK 1 NFL MAIN SLATE BREAKDOWN
WEEK 1 NFL DFS
Hope everyone enjoyed Thursday night’s game and showdown slate! The Bills are for real! Now it’s on to the main event in the Sunday main slate. If you haven’t yet, go back and check out my article on DFS strategy breakdown for the main slates. Here I will go over a brief overview of the slate, and go game by game. I will discuss who the obvious plays are (for your cash teams), and then some of my favorite game stacks, the best value options, some contrarian options to reduce our lineup’s total ownership, and of course, my “Flagplants”.
Before reading, head to the Draftkings lobby and join Jon’s contest he has set up for the main slate.
RAVENS (-7) @ JETS. O/U 44.5
Lamar Jackson is always in play, especially at a price tag of $7,300. And with other sites projecting Lamar at only 10% ownership, he is a great tournament play.
Now I know I said in my last article that we want to be double stacking our QB with 2 of his pass catchers to build an optimal lineup. However, with QBs like Lamar who provide so much rushing upside, we can single stack Lamar with one of his pass catchers, and still unlock his ceiling through the ground. In a game where we expect the Ravens to be in a favorable game script, I definitely don’t want to go all out on the Raven’s passing game.
Game stack idea:
Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews or Rashod Bateman, and bring it back with Elijah Moore.
Joe Flacco may honestly be better for the Jet’s pass catchers than Wilson, and Elijah Moore is extremely talented, and could easily pay off his $5,100 price tag.
No one else in this game gives me any interest.
EAGLES (-4) @ LIONS. O/U 48.5
One of my favorite game stacks on the slate, if not my favorite. This Eagles offense is going to be a lot of fun with the addition of AJ Brown, and all signs point to the Eagles being much more pass-happy this year. Jalen Hurts at his $6,800 price tag is one of Jon’s best values on the slate at QB, and is my favorite QB play of the day. Just like with Lamar, we can single stack Hurts with one of his pass catchers, and still feel confident due to his rushing upside. On the other side, this Lions team has a sneaky good offense with plenty of playmakers, that make for some great bring backs.
Game Stack Ideas:
Jalen Hurts + Dallas Goedert (preferred) or through Devonta Smith.
Bring back w/ Amon-Ra St. Brown or D’Andre Swift
Other players I would have in my pool are:
Miles Sanders, AJ Brown, T.J. Hockenson
COLTS (-7) @ TEXANS. O/U 45.5
Matt Ryan’s debut should be fun to watch, but not much interests me in this game from a fantasy perspective. The Colt’s as 7 point road favorites should project to be in favorable game script most of this game, making Jonathan Taylor a great option at RB. There are a lot of other RB’s I like more just due to their pass catching upside, but would never argue against rostering JT, however his price tag is steep. Dameon Pierce is going to be one of the best value options on the slate at a mistaken price of $4,800 as the clear RB1 in Houston, making him a great play for salary relief.
My Player Pool from this game would be:
Michal Pittman Jr., JT, Brandin Cooks, Dameon Pierce.
NINERS (-7) @ BEARS. O/U 40
The Trey Lance Era begins in SF. One of the most polarizing figures in the NFL during this off-season, and I think we all can agree we are excited to see what he can bring. In a game featuring a 40 point total, and with the Niners run heavy scheme, this game is not fantasy friendly with so many other better options. However, Lance at $6,000 is a solid option, due to again his rushing upside. With reports that George Kittle is doubtful for Sunday, this could open up more passing volume for the likes of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. If we get word that Kittle is officially out, I think a cheap game stack of:
Trey Lance + Brandon Aiyuk w/ a Cole Kmet bring back is a solid start to your roster.
Besides the above players, no one else from this game is making my player pool.
STEELERS @ BENGALS (-6.5). O/U 44
I don’t know about you guys but I was hoping we would get Kenny Pickett right out of the gate. Instead, we will get a Mitchell Trubisky led offense headed to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. A lot of fun options in this game that we can target as “one off’s” to our game stacks, or even build some mini game stacks within our lineups.
If you were to game stack this game, I would definitely go the Cincinnati route, hoping that now that Joe Burrow is 100%, and they have sured up the O-line, maybe we see more of a pass happy scheme immediately.
Joe Burrow + Tee Higgins + Jamarr Chase, provides a huge ceiling. The Bengals offense is very condensed, we know exactly who is getting the ball, whether it’s Joe Mixon on the ground, or Higgins, Chase, Boyd through the air. This team does not have many ancillary pieces, making this offense a great stacking opportunity.
Other players in my Pool would be:
Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris
SAINTS (-5.5) @ FALCONS. O/U 43
“Famous Jameis” vs Marcus Mariota.. what a barn burner this should be. This game is not a game I would target as a game stack in any capacity. Really the only options here that I would add to my pool would be:
Alvin Kamara and Kyle Pitts
PATRIOTS @ DOLPHINS (-3.5). O/U 46.5
This Dolphins team is going to be a lot of fun this year. The addition of Tyreek Hill adds a new wrinkle to this offense, alongside rookie sensation Jaylen Waddle. Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert as the 1-2 punch out of the backfield is a very underrated backfield. The weight is all on Tua’s shoulders, and I have confidence in him this year in newly installed Mike Mcdaniel’s system. On the other side, the run heavy Patriots tend to not provide fantasy friendly environments. There are definitely some pieces in this game I want to target, but I would not recommend a game stack due to the game environment, and so many better options.
Player Pool suggestions:
Damien Harris, Tyreek Hill, Jakobi Myers, Chase Edmonds
BROWNS @ PANTHERS (PK). O/U 42
The Baker Mayfield Revenge game! I’ll definitely be tuning into this one… but not for Baker, but for the best player on the slate, CMC. We will not see CMC priced at $8,500 again this year, and in my opinion he is a “free square” when it comes to building our lineups. Would not game stack here, but if you are feeling “dangerous” as Baker would say, a Baker + CMC + DJ Moore could be fun. However, with a 42 point implied total, and Jacoby Brisket on the other side, this one could get ugly.
Players I would consider in my player pool:
Nick Chubb, DJ Moore, CMC (lock), David Njoku
JAGUARS @ COMMANDERS (-2.5). O/U 44
I was so excited for the Travis Etienne show this year in Jacksonville, but with news our of Jaguars camp that James Robinson has “no setbacks” post torn achilles surgery (shouts out modern medicine), this does worry me on his upside potential. I do expect the Jags and Trevor Lawrence to take a leap, post Urban Meyer, with the additions they made this offseason, and Doug Pederson now in charge. Christian Kirk is a very interesting option out of this game, and I will be mixing him in as a one off in my lineups. On the other side, after the unfortunate news of Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson is now a great value at the RB position. One of the best values on the slate is first round WR Jahan Dotson out of Penn State. All the news out of Commanders camp is that Dotson has been Wentz’s favorite target thus far. At a price tag of $3400, he is a borderline cash game lock, which should garner a lot of ownership in tournaments. Do think we can get different elsewhere, and play Dotson in our tournament lineups for salary relief + a safe floor.
Player Pool:
Antonio Gibson, Christian Kirk, Jahan Dotson
GIANTS @ TITANS (-5.5). O/U 44
The Brian Daboll Era begins in New York. This off-season I was very optimistic on this Giants offense. They have a lot of pieces, in Saquon Barkley, Kadarius Toney, Wan’dale Robinson, and Kenny Golladay. Now heading into week 1, this WR core is completely up in the air. Kenny Golladay is reportedly running routes with “the stiffness of a mannequin”, Toney can’t seem to stay on the field, leaving Wan’Dale as the safest option. At $3,000 he is a cash game lock, and can be used in tournaments as well, but be aware of the high ownership he will bring along. For Barkley and his role, he is extremely underpriced, and is a great tournament play. On the other side, I am not personally a fan of Derrick Henry as I like my RB’s to be able to catch passes, but Henry at home as a 5.5 point favorite, is not a bad play at all. The WR room is a question mark, as rookie Treylon Burks can’t seem to get on the field, and Robert Woods is coming off a torn ACL.
Player Pool:
Wan’dale Robinson*, Saquon Barkley, Kadarius Toney
CHIEFS (-6) @ CARDINALS. O/U 54
“The Afternoon Hammer” game. With the highest total on the slate, this game will carry the most overall ownership, and for good reason. The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the best offenses in the NFL, and everyone for some reason seems to be down on them because they lost Tyreek Hill? Sure they lost a great player in Tyreek, but you still have Mahomes and Andy Reid, and added JuJu, MVS, and Skyy Moore to stretch the field alongside Travis Kelce. My favorite (and probably everyone else’s) game stack of the day. So many ways you can go about this game, personally I prefer the Chiefs side of things, but Kyler is a great option as well, and has plenty of pass catchers to stack up with.
Game Stack Ideas:
Mahomes + JuJu or MVS + Kelce. Bring back with Marquise Brown or Zach Ertz
Kyler + Marquise Brown. Bring back with both Kelce + JuJu
Player Pool:
MVS, Marquise Brown, CEH, Mecole Hardman, James Conner, Zach Ertz* (watch for news on his injury, if he is ruled out, rookie Trey McBride is extremely cheap, and could be looking at 80% of snaps at TE)
PACKERS (-1.5) @ VIKINGS. O/U 47
Sneaky good game here. Kevin O’Connell takes over for the Vikings, and word is he plans on implementing a much pass heavier offense moving forward for the Vikings. Justin Jefferson is everyone’s favorite WR this offseason, and for good reason. Kirk Cousin’s is a true pocket passer limiting his upside compared to the other QB’s on the slate, but he does have a chance to get there based on pure volume alone and his relatively low price tag at $6,100. On the other side, the Adam-less Packers are tough to decipher. Aaron Jones appears to be the team’s WR1 by default, and with Allen Lazard questionable, it is a mess predicting who will emerge. Pre-season all American Romeo Doubs is everyone’s choice, but I still think Sammy Watkins, and Randall Cobb will lead this team in receiving week 1.
* Injury Watch* Keep an eye out on Allen Lazard’s status. If he is ultimately ruled out, give a nice bump to both Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins. Very cheap options who will project for solid volume.
Game Stack Potential:
Kirk + Jefferson + Irv Smith. Bring it back with Aaron Jones or Sammy Watkins
Player Pool additions:
Randall Cobb, Dalvin Cook
RAIDERS @ CHARGERS (-3.5). O/U 52.5
Let me be honest here… I am a die-hard Chargers fan and love my team, but will try my best to keep my bias aside here. So many options here in this game. Herbert is a great stacking opportunity at fairly lower ownership for this slate. Just like I mentioned with the Bengals, the Chargers are a great team to stack as there offense is as well very condensed. Not many ancillary pieces here, its gonna be Ekelar, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen as the primary targets here. The addition of Gerald Everett in the offseason is a sneaky good pickup for this offense, and one of my favorite lower end TE’s on the slate. On the other side, its old college roommates Derek Carr and Davante Adams. The Raiders are stacked on offense, with Adams, Waller, and Renfroe, as well as Jacobs out of the backfield. So many options here in this game, and with a 52.5 point team total, we can expect a lot of scoring. A lot of these players will come in at much lower ownership than the Chiefs/Cardinals game, and make for great tournament plays.
Game Stack potential:
Herbert + Mike Williams + Everett. Bring it back with Adams or Renfroe
Carr + Adams + Renfroe. Bring it back with Ekelar or Mike Williams
Player Pool additions:
Keenan Allen
MY FAVORITE STACKS
Before diving into this, a great way to determine the best game stacks is by using Jon’s projections. When in the dashboard, go to “Game Info” and sort by team implied points. This will typically correlate with the preferred games to stack, and teams to target.
1. CHIEFS
MAHOMES + KELCE + JUJU OR MVS.
BRING BACK WITH MARQUISE BROWN
2. EAGLES
HURTS + GOEDERT OR DEVONTA SMITH.
BRING BACK WITH AMON-RA ST. BROWN OR D’ANDRE SWIFT
3. CHARGERS
HERBERT + MIKE WILLIAMS + EVERETT OR KEENAN ALLEN
BRING BACK WITH ADAMS OR RENFROE
BEST VALUE OPTIONS
QB: Jalen Hurts $6,800, Lamar Jackson $7,300, Trey Lance $6,000, Daniel Jones $5,000
RB: CMC $8,500, Barkley $6,100, Najee Harris $6,400, Gibson $5,800, Pierce $4,800
WR: Dotson $3,400, Wan’Dale $3,000, Pittman $5,500, JuJu $5,200, Cobb, $3,400
TE: Kelce $6,600, Andrews $6,800, Goedert $4,500, Irv Smith $3,400, Kmet $3,700
DST: Commanders $2,500, Bears $2,200, Steelers $2,400, Dolphins $2,600
FLAG PLANTS
No need to read all that gibberish above right? Just scroll on down to my flag plants and let’s make some money. Here I will give my favorite players at each position and the stances I am taking on the slate.
QB: JALEN HURTS $6,800. PROJ: 23.25
You don’t trade a 1st round pick and pay AJ Brown $100 million if you want to continue to be a run heavy team. Jalen Hurts is surrounded with talent, in Brown, Goedert, and Devonta Smith. He has one of the best O-lines in all of football, and a solid run game that will keep the defense on their toes. Hurts’s rushing floor + ceiling combo to go along with his receiver core makes him one of fantasy’s best QB’s for the season, and especially week 1 vs the Detroit Lion’s defense. At $6,800 Hurts is one of the slate’s top values, and is Jon’s best value at QB.
RB: CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY. $8,500. PROJ: 22.34
Like I mentioned above, CMC will never be $8,500 again this entire season. He is a true unicorn in the fantasy football world with his workload. 2021 is a year to forget with CMC due to injuries. In 2019 CMC played in all 16 games, totaling 1387 rushing yards on 287 attempts, and caught 116 balls for 1005 yards, and finished with 19 total TD’s. When CMC is healthy, he is the best player in all of fantasy. Finally with some competent QB play in a healthy Baker Mayfield, CMC will produce at a high rate once again. “Free Square”
WR: JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER. $5,200. PROJ: 13.46
My bet to be the WR1 in Kansas City. Tyreek Hill is gone, leaving 159 targets and 1709 air yards on the table. MVS is a one trick pony, Kelce is getting up there in age, and Hardman has had his opportunities. I fully expect JuJu to step in and possibly lead this team in target share. Mahomes loves throwing over the middle, and with JuJu expected to be in the slot for the majority of his snaps, I like him to quickly become Mahomes favorite target alongside Travis Kelce. At $5,200 he is a screaming value and a must play in my mind.
TE: IRV SMITH JR. $3,400. PROJ: 8.66
Now fully healthy, and in Kevin O’Connell’s pass heavy system, I love Irv Smith as a breakout player. Tyler Conklin is gone, leaving the likes of “Johnny Mundt” and “Ben Ellefson” in the TE room with Smith. Smith should be running almost every single route on Kirk’s drop backs, and in a possible shootout with Green Bay, $3,400 is just too cheap for the volume Irv Smith could see.
Thanks again for giving this a read. I hope this is helpful, and I will look to add on more features as the season goes on. As always, if you have any questions or suggestions for future content, feel free to shoot Jon an email or DM me on Twitter: @JohnnyC1993. Best of luck to all of you! Make sure you check out Jon’s contest as mentioned at the beginning.