Week 3 MNF Showdown Analysis
I break down Rams vs. Bengals, the primary Week 3 Monday Night Football matchup - and provide the projection-powered optimal cash lineup.
The showdown previews are free, but you can Venmo me a tip if you’re so inclined!
We have another Monday Night double header, and this time both games are pretty compelling for fantasy purposes. I only have time to break down one game, so we’re going with the one in the main time slow - it’s Rams at Bengals.
Game Environment
The total is about average at 45 with the Bengals being a three point favorite at home. Should be an entertaining game to watch, these are definitely some interesting teams with a lot going on. There’s not much else to say about the game environment other than that! This definitely isn’t a spot where we can lean into one team dominating and the other playing catch up or anything like that.
Rams
QB
Matthew Stafford is healthy and has ripped off two straight 300+ yard pass games (against Seattle and San Fran). He does not run, and he’s been limited to just one touchdown so far - so the fantasy points haven’t been there. He’s always been a lower-upside QB, and that’s especially true now. The floor is solid, it would be hard to imagine him being under 15 fantasy points in this spot, but he doesn’t really have that 30+ point upside that you just can’t miss, even in a showdown.
RBs
In week one, Cam Akers led the team with 22 carries. But then he was inactive for week two and traded last week. In that week two game, Kyren ran the ball 14 times, and no other RB even got an attempt.
So he’s clearly the lead back, and has seen 12 targets in two games as well, so this is a great role in an offense that can move the ball. He’s a great play at $9,000.
WRs/TEs
It’s Puka’s world now! He has 35 targets, 25 catches, and 266 yards in two games. Behind him is Tutu Atwell with 17 targets, 13 catches, and 196 yards. The next highest target count is Higbee & Williams down at six, and Van Jefferson has added five - and that pretty much wraps up the pass catchers.
Nacua has a lower ADoT at 7.8, but that doesn’t really matter when you’re being fed that many targets. He does have a questionable tag here but is expected to play, he had the same injury last week and it clearly didn’t hurt him with those 20 targets. So Nacua has played like a $13,000 showdown player but is priced at $10,000. He’s a fantastic play by the projections.
Nacua has made Atwell’s very strong 13-196-0 line in two games play second fiddle, but that’s a quite good couple of games as well.
You can pretty much get this whole Rams offense through Nacua + Atwell + Williams, and that’s a pretty enticing thing to do in a showdown cash lineup.
Priority Plays
Nacua $10,000
Williams $9,000
Secondary Plays
Atwell $7,000
Stafford $10,200
Other Plays
Maher $4,000
Higbee $6,200
Rams DST $3,400
Jefferson $4,400
Bengals
QBs
Rough start to the year for Joe Burrow. He has just a 57% completion percentage with yards with two touchdowns and an interception in two games. He’s questionable but expected to play tonight, but clearly he hasn’t been himself and there’s a pretty decent chance that has to do with injury.
In two games so far, QBs haven’t done great against the Rams defense
Purdy 17/25, 206 yards, 0 TD
Smith 16/26, 112 yards, 1 TD
A healthy Burrow is a much better passer than those two, but there’s considerable downside here tonight - we could even possibly see him try to play but not quite be able to do it and then end up exiting the game early on - that’s a real possibility and it might be reason enough to fade him even in a cash lineup.
RBs
The Bengals have run the ball 35 times this year and Joe Mixon has 26 of those carries. They essentially don’t have a second running back. He’s added 10 targets in two games, so he’s a tough guy to fade with this role. This kind of rare running back role is really valuable in fantasy, and so far the Rams have allowed a big 5.3 yards per carry.
WRs
Bengals targets:
Higgins 20
Chase 17
Boyd 11
Mixon 10
Smith Jr. 9
Burrow’s slow start has turned into Chase’s slow start, and he has just a 10-70-0 line through two games. But we know what he can do. Tee Higgins has basically matched Chase in targets in games they’ve played together, and he’s had a better season so far even with the goose egg in week one (he went for 89 yard and two scores last week).
One game is super random, of course, but any time Higgins is significantly cheaper than Chase, he’s the better play - because really these two are a lot closer in fantasy scoring than most people think. Tonight, Chase is $11,000 and Higgins is at $8,600 - so it would seem like Higgins is the play there if you’re picking one for a cash lineup.
Irv Smith is doubtful, which gives a bunch of extra snaps and probably some extra routes to Drew Sample, who costs just $200 - so there’s your mega-punt for the night.
Priority Plays
Joe Mixon $8,400
Secondary plays
Tee Higgins $8,600
Ja’Marr Chase $11,000
Evan McPherson $4,200
Drew Sample $200
Optimal Cash Lineup
CPT Joe Mixon
Puka Nacua
Tutu Atwell
Ja’Marr Chase
Kyren Williams
Drew Sample
I ran the optimal lineup for the other game (Bucs/Eagles) too, so here’s that:
CPT Jalen Hurts
Baker Mayfield
Mike Evans
Chris Godwin
Dallas Goedert
Trey Palmer