Week 4 MNF Showdown Analysis
A statistics and projection-powered breakdown of the Week 5 Showdown Matchup on DraftKings - Seahawks vs. Giants
Tip jar:
Game Environment
Line: SEA -2
Over/Under: 47
Another tight line and decent total here, this should be a pretty good game (knock on wood!).
Injuries:
Saquon Barkley (doubtful)
Noah Fant (questionable)
Will Dissly (questionable)
Team Defense
Two middling defenses at best here, and we’re probably looking at a pretty bad unit with Seattle.
The Seahawks have been stout against the run so far (2.9 yards per carry, second-best in the league) but have been beaten by the pass (7.8 yards per attempt - that’s sixth-worst in the league). That’s good news for a Giants offense that is without Saquon Barkley tonight, they’ll probably be happy to attack through the air
As for the Giants defense, they’re pretty much in the middle of the pack on both sides, but overall they’ve allowed 5.7 yards per play which is 9th-worst in the league (they have played some tough offenses, however).
Team Offense
Seattle likes to throw it (64% pass rate, +3.2% over expectation), and their 7.1 pass yards per attempt is slightly above average. The Giants have not been good through the air at just 5.6 yards per attempt, but they have had their backs against the wall quite a bit this year (they lost 40-0 against Dallas and 30-12 against the 49ers - two of the league’s best teams).
This would seem to be a get-right spot for the Giants offense, even without Barkley. They had a long break here since that Thursday Night game in week three, and this defense is a much worse unit than two of the three they’ve played so far.
Seahawks
Quarterback Play
It’s Geno Smith ($10,000) at the helm again this year after he did a real nice job taking over for Russell Wilson last season. So far this year:
Week 1 vs. Rams: 112 yards, 1 TD, 1 rush, 6 yards, 9 fantasy points
Week 2 vs. Lions: 328 yards, 2 TD, 3 rushes, 20 yards, 26 fantasy points
Week 3 vs. Panthers: 296 yards, 1 TD, 4 rush, -4 yards, 15.4 fantasy points
He has a 69% completion percentage with a 7.15 yards per attempt, both of those marks are a touch above league average. He’s been well under the league average in average depth of pass attempt at 6.6 yards. Last year, with pretty much the same crew, he had a 7.5 ADoT - so this 6.6 is probably lower than we should expect.
Smith isn’t a huge threat with his legs, but he did go over 40 yards rushing three times last year, running for just one touchdown - so he’s not a zero there. In a cash game build here, we probably want both QBs since this game profiles as a pretty high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.
Running Backs
The data:
Kenneth Walker
106 snaps, 47 attempts, 4.3 ypc, 4 TD, 45 routes, 10 targets, 8 catches, 73 yards, 0 TD, -1.6 ADoTZach Charbonnet
61 snaps, 16 attempts, 4.6 ypc, 0 TD, 26 routes, 4 targets, 3 catches, 13 yards, 0 TD, -0.5 ADoT
So this backfield is pretty well dominated by Walker. Walker took over the job in the middle of last year. Starting in week 7 he was getting the majority of the RB snaps and played well. He put up these scores:
32, 12, 31, 13, 17, 4, 12, 16, 18, 16
So there’s only two real big games there, but only three pretty bad ones. He wasn’t a huge factor in the pass game with just three games over four targets - so that’s where this lack of ceiling comes from. He pretty much needs a huge play or multiple touchdowns to make him a can’t-miss running back, but the role is such that the floor is very high - and he does have home-run hitting upside.
Pass Catchers
Targets / ADoT:
Lockett………….. 22 / 9.6
Metcalf………….. 19 / 12.3
Smith-Njigba…. 14 / 4.1
Walker……………. 10 / 7.3
Fant………………… 9 / 10.8
Parkinson…..…… 9 / 9.7
Dissly………………. 5 / 10.4
Routes Per Week:
Lockett………….23-26-26
Metcalf………….26-27-27
Smith-Njigba…23-19-24
So we haven’t seen JSN getting any more work, he’s been on the field a bunch all year and that makes his 14 targets and 4.1 ADoT pretty tough to take. I don’t think he’s really in play here at $5,000.
The projections like Lockett $8,000 the best with a 15.3 point projection, and Metcalf $8,800 not far behind at 14.7 points - but the $800 price difference is there. There’s no real way to know which of these guys will have the bigger game, so you’re pretty much picking one and hoping for the best. Last year, per gam data:
Lockett 15.5 fantasy points, 7.3 targets, 65 yards, 0.6 TD
Metcalf 13.7 fantasy points, 8.4 targets, 62 yards, 0.4 TD
So Lockett ran hotter with touchdowns last year, and he has a 7-3 red zone target lead over Metcalf so far this year, so I would definitely prefer Lockett if pressed just for the $800 savings.
As for the tight ends, we have some value in the punt play of Colby Parkinson $800. That’s only true if Noah Fant is out, and even then it’s pretty thing. Here’s the game logs on these three tight ends:
So even with Fant out in that first game, Parkinson didn’t get used very much with just eight routes run. However, if Fant AND Dissly are out, then there’s between 20 and 30 routes for him to run, which should result in 4-6 targets, which would be a smash for $800.
So we really need the news on Fant & Dissly to make a solid lineup right now. Searching some tweets from Friday makes it sound like at least one of Fant/Dissly will play - so I think it’s probably best just to skip over this trio entirely for our lineups - although Fant is a fine tourney play if he’s in there.
Priority Plays
Geno Smith $10,000
Secondary Plays
Tyler Lockett $8,000
Kenneth Walker $10,800
DK Metcalf $8,800
Jason Myers $4,600
Noah Fant $3,600 (if playing)
Other Plays
Colby Parkinson $800 (if both other TEs are out - unlikely)
Giants
Quarterback Play
We get to see Daniel Jones in primetime again! And like we said at the beginning, this time should go better than what we’ve seen in his first two primetime games of the year.
He chucked it 28, 37, and 33 times this year and has run it 24 times, having two absolute dud fantasy games and one very, very good one. That’s Daniel Jones for you.
We should be forgiving of the Dallas and San Francisco games, and last year he did this at a per-game basis:
18.6 fantasy points, 29.4 pass attempts, 200 passing yards, 1 pass TD, 7.5 rush attempts, 44 rush yards, 0.44 rush TD
I think we have to play Daniel Jones tonight in a cash game / small contest situation - without Barkley in there he’s going to do a lot, and this is a defense that can be beaten.
Running Backs
Last week without Saquon:
Breida: 37 snaps, 4 rushes, 17 yards, 1 TD, 3 targets, 3 catches, 1 yard
Brightwell: 9 snaps, 4 rushes, 5 yards, 3 targets, 2 catches, 31 yards
It was not a good game to be a running back in, but clearly Breida is the guy here - and that’s valuable in this matchup for just $6,400.
By the projections, he’s one of the best plays on the slate with a projection of 12.8 points.
Pass Catchers
Targets / ADoT:
Waller……….. 20 / 9.2
Slayton……….17 / 6.4
Campbell……16 / 3.8
Hodgins…….. 9 / 9.1
Robinson…… 5 / 4.2
Wan’Dale Robinson didn’t play in the first two weeks, so all five of his targets were last week on limited snaps - so the target/route is pretty good there but the ADoT is really low. He’s priced at just $3,000 so he’s in play here - a 4-40-1 line would be quite good at that price.
But the alpha is clearly Waller. He has 5, 8, and 7 targets in three games, although his yardage totals are low (36, 76, 20) and he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet. But nobody has really done anything through the air on this offense yet, so if we think it’s going to happen tonight - Waller seems to be the best bet.
Outside of Waller, it’s a pretty big mess. Campbell, Slayton, Hodgins, and Hyatt have all run 30+ routes this year, but none of them have earned a high Tgt/Route. Slayton is the best of the bunch in that regard at 17.5% - and his higher ADoT.
Priority Plays
Daniel Jones $9,600
Matt Breida $6,400
Secondary Plays
Darren Waller $7,000
Other Plays
Darius Slayton $5,200
Graham Gano $4,200
Full Projections
Optimal Lineup
CPT Daniel Jones
Geno Smith
Tyler Lockett
Darren Waller
Matt Breida
Graham Gano
Thanks for reading, let’s win some money tonight! I’ll be writing this again Thursday, so subscribe if you’re into it!