Week 5 MNF Showdown Analysis
A statistics and projection-powered breakdown of the Week 5 Showdown Matchup on DraftKings - Packers vs. Raiders
Tip Jar!
Game Environment
Line: LV -2.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Injuries:
Davante Adams Q (not really, he’s going to play)
Aaron Jones Q (looking more doubtful now)
Packers
Quarterback Play
Jordan Love hasn’t been great this year with a 55% completion percentage and a pretty low 6.7 YPA.
Even with that, he’s been a pretty good fantasy point scorer (17.6, 24.3, 20.3, 23.0 in DraftKings points this year).
The Raiders have given up this to QBs this year:
Russell Wilson: 177 yards, 2 TD, 15.2 DraftKings points
Josh Allen: 274 yards, 3 TD, 23.7 DraftKings points
Kenny Pickett: 235 yards, 2 TD, 18.5 DraftKings points
Justin Herbert: 167 yards, 1 TD, 23.4 DraftKings points (2 rush TD)
They’re about right in the middle of the pack overall defensively, so this isn’t necessarily a smash play for the Love - but it’s not a restrictive matchup either. He projects for 17.5 points tonight at an affordable price of $9,800.
Running Backs
It has been rough on the ground for the Packers without Aaron Jones in the lineup. He missed weeks 2-3 and then AJ Dillon did this:
26 carries, 88 yards (3.4 YPC), 0 TD, 1 target, 1 catch, 8 yards, 0 TD
Not good, but two games isn’t super fair to judge him on (and they weren’t good game environments for him either against Atlanta and New Orleans), but for the year his 2.68 yards per carry is really, really disappointing. He will most likely need huge volume or multiple scores to become a player you need to have, HOW-FREAKIN-EVER, he’s priced at $4,600 which is ridiculously low for a guy projecting for 12+ touches and goal line work.
Patrick Taylor ($200) is the other RB to consider. He played 40 snaps in weeks 2-3 without Jones, running four times for seven yards, but he did see five targets on a very high 36% Tgt/Route. He did not see the field last week, but he should see some snaps tonight, and with Dillon struggling I would think there’s a good chance he can clear his week three season-high of 29. He could be in the mix for 5-10 carries and a couple of targets - which is more than what you need at the $200 price point. He’s very much significant on this slate.
Pass Catchers
Christian Watson ($7,800) returned last week but played a limited snap count (24 snaps out of a possible 53). He should play a much higher snap rate than that tonight, and it’s possible he’s all the way back to his normal role - which would make him a really nice option at the cheaper price.
Targets / ADOTs for Green Bay this:
Doubs $8,200….….. 33 / 11.3
Reed $6,200……..… 26 / 13.1
Musgrave $5,200… 16 / 7.8
Wicks $200…………. 13 / 11.8
The projections like Watson the most at 11.86, followed by Doubs at 11.49, and then Reed at 9.35 and Musgrave at 8.01.
Red zone targets:
Reed 10
Doubs 7
Musgrave 3
Wicks 3
So that red zone role keeps Reed in the conversation, although it might go away with Watson back.
I think the Packers will just come out slinging the ball tonight. They’ve been so unable to run the ball and Love clearly likes to get the ball down field, and the Raiders can beaten that way.
Priority Plays
Jordan Love $9,400
Christian Watson $7,800
Secondary Plays
AJ Dillon $4,600
Romeo Doubs $8,200
Patrick Taylor $200
Other Plays
Luke Musgrave $5,200
Jayden Reed $6,200
Anders Carlson $4,000
Raiders
Quarterback Play
The Raiders get Jimmy Garoppolo $9,400 back. In his three games with the Raiders he scored 15.1, 7.5, and 20.7 DraftKings points, going over 300 yards against the Steelers in that 20.7 point performance, but being held to 26 and 24 attempts in the other two games. Garoppolo has never been a guy to throw the ball a ton, and I doubt the Raiders really want to ask too much of him in this offense either. He has a solid enough 7.5 yards per attempt, but he’s thrown six picks already this year. The five touchdowns and 67% completion percentage are fine, but he is clearly one of these QBs in the league we’re fine with fading in showdowns.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs $10,600 touch counts:
Week 1: 21
Week 2: 14
Week 3: 20
Week 4: 25
He’s a tough fade in a single-game situation with that workload. He had 11 targets last week, although that was with the rookie QB. In weeks 1-3, he had just 14 targets - that’s not nothing, but it’s far form a “pass catching RB role”.
Efficiency has been a disaster with a 2.7 yards per carry on the year, and he’s scored only one touchdown so far. Both of those numbers should regress upward - but a YPC under three is scary. The Packers have given up a 4.4 YPC, above the league average.
He’s an interesting fade in tournaments, since he’ll be pretty popular and could certainly fail if he doesn’t score. A 15 carry, 45 yard, 3 reception, 15 yard, no touchdown game is in the range of outcomes, and that’s a pretty awful fantasy game for the expensive price tag.
Pass Catchers
This offense is really compact.
Targets/ADoT:
Davante Adams $11,200: 50 / 11.4
Jakobi Meyers $7,000: 26 / 10.1
Josh Jacobs $10,600: 25 / 1.5
Ameer Abdulla $1,000: 9 / 3.4
Hunter Renfrow $2,200: 7 / 10.1
So there is basically nothing behind those three names. That sets up incredibly well for Adams and Meyers, and obviously Adams is the top fantasy player in the game by a good margin - especially with the revenge narrative here.
WR1’s vs. GB this year:
St. Brown: 5-56-1
Olave: 8-104-0
DJ Moore: 2-25-0
London: 6-67-1
No eruption games there, but solid production for three of the four.
Priority Plays
Davante Adams $11,200
Josh Jacobs $10,600
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Garoppolo $9,400
Jakobi Meyers $7,000
Other Plays
Daniel Carlson $4,200
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