Week 5 TNF Showdown Analysis
A statistics and projection-powered breakdown of the Week 5 Showdown Matchup on DraftKings - Bears vs. Commanders
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Game Environment
Line: WSH -6
Over/Under: 44.5
Injuries:
No significant injuries here, which is nice. Chase Claypool isn’t with the team, but that doesn’t really matter.
Team Defenses
The Bears haven’t given up many pass attempts (just 32 per game which is 10th-lowest in the league), but they have been hurt badly when their opponents do go to the air, giving up 8.6 yards per pass attempt. Overall they have given up 6.2 yards per play, which is second-worst in the league behind Denver. So this is a good spot for the Commander offense.
Washington’s defense has given up 5.6 yards per play, which 11th-worst in the league, and they are right in that 10th-15th worst range both through the air on the ground.
Both of these offenses can be extremely incompetent, which I guess is what is holding that total down under 45, but I think both of these offenses have some upside as well - making a 50+ shootout not all that hard to picture, but it’s quite possible I’ll end up looking really stupid with that claim.
Bears
Quarterback Play
It has been a rollercoaster ride for Fields. Since last season, he has gone over 30 DraftKings points three times in 19 games and has gotten to double-digit every time but twice. This year:
Week 1: 216 pass yards, 1 TD, 59 rush yards, 14.5 DraftKings points
Week 2: 211 pass yards, 1 TD, 3 rush yards, 1 TD, 14.7 DraftKings points
Week 3: 99 pass yards, 1 TD, 47 rush yards, 0 TD, 10.7 DraftKings points
Week 4: 335 pass yards, 4 TD, 25 rush yrds, 0 TD, 30.9 DraftKings points
His rush attempts have gone 9, 4, 11, and 4. He went for double-digit rush attempts eight times last year, so he’s been running much less this year, and that’s a huge deal. We certainly can’t write him off as a runner, and it’s possibly he just starts running a ton now as the Bears search for answers. Fields floor is higher than most people give him credit for, but it’s really low for a guy with this much rushing ability. What we do know is that the ceiling is outrageous - 40+ points can happen with this guy, so he’s probably a cash play and definitely a guy to mix in on a bunch of GPP teams.
Jalen Hurts ran the ball nine times against the Commanders in week 4, and Josh Allen only took off three times in week three - those were the two rushing QBs they’ve faced so far and neither guy did a ton of damage on the ground. It’s really not a fair comparison with those two names and Fields though, so we don’t really know what’s going to happen here - but we have to embrace Fields’ ceiling here when building lineups.
Running Backs
Carries/Targets by week
Herbert: 10/5, 7/3, 7/2, 18/5
Johnson: 5/7, 4/2, 8/2, 5/1
Herbert has 41% of the team’s rushing attempts (Fields at 27%, Johnson at 21%), but he’s not much of a factor in the passing game and he gets touchdowns taken away from him by Fields (and even Johnson has stolen one from him this year). They don’t have a clear-cut red zone running back either:
Red Zone Carries
Fields 6
Herbert 5
Johnson 4
Herbert is a pretty iffy play in this spot at $8,600 and he projects for just 12.9 points.
Roschon Johnson $4,800 projects for just 6.1 points, which is much worse per-dollar than Herbert - so I think we can leave him off the player pool here, but Herbert is in the conversation at least.
Pass Catchers
It has been a long time since the Bears have had a reliable wide receiver, but we might be getting closer to that this year with the talented DJ Moore $10,000. But, of course, Fields holds his floor way, way down.
Targets - Catches - Air Yards this year:
Moore……,…25 - 19 - 326
Kmet…………24 - 18 - 164
Claypool….…14 - 4 - 159
Mooney……..12 - 8 - 115
Moore is the target guy and the long-pass guy, but Mooney gets a few deep shots here and there as well.
Routes Run by Week:
Moore: 46/46/46/38
Mooney: 41/0/21/36
Kmet: 40/21/21/26
Claypool: 35/36/36/0
St.Brown: 0/0/0/21
So Equanimeous St. Brown $1,800 gets a bump with Claypool out, and I suppose so would Darnell Mooney $5,000. Last week, without Claypool, those two went:
Mooney: 4 targets, 4 rec, 51 yards, 0 TD, 8.0 ADoT
St. Brown: 1 target, 1 rec, 2 1 yards, 0 TD, 19.0 ADoT
Not great usage for St. Brown there with the elevated role. The pass game was dominated by Moore and Kmet who saw nine targets each. Those two are the clear guys to go to if you’re stacking up the Bears passing game.
Priority Plays
Justin Fields $11,000
Secondary Plays
DJ Moore $10,000
Cole Kmet $6,400
Khalil Herbert $8,600
Other Plays
Darnell Mooney $5,000
Cairo Santos $4,600
Punts
E St. Brown $1,800
Commanders
Quarterback Play
It’s an interesting matchup here as Sam Howell has been sacked more than any other QB in the league (24 times), but the Bears are dead last in the league in sacks (2).
Howell on the season:
94/140 (67% Comp%), 961 yards, 4 TD, 5 INT, 7.6 ADoT
He has faced the Bills and Eagles the last two weeks, and those are two very good defenses - so it’s a pretty impressive record considering the schedule and the fact that he’s a rookie. He’s gone for 15, 21, 1, and 20 DraftKings points in his four games, and has gone above 290 yards passing twice already. He’s not much of a runner, but he did run for 40 yards last on six carries last week, so he’s not a total zere there either.
His first two matchups were against bad defenses in Arizona and Denver, and he played fine there. I think something like 250 yards, 1.5 TD, 1 INT, 20 yards rushing is a fair median expectation here. He projects for 18.3 fantasy points, so it’s a solid play here for $9,400 - a cheap tag for a QB.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson $9,200 has dominated this backfield with 62 carries (second most is Antonio Gibson $3,200 at just 13), and he’s run for 261 yards (4.2 YPC) while adding three touchdowns, five catches, 55 receiving yards, and another touchdown through the air. He dominates red zone work as well with 13 carries in there, Gibson has just three (so does Curtis Samuel, which is interesting).
Robinson is a workhorse running back and projects for a solid 15.4 points here, but there is definite multi-touchdown possibilities here if the Commanders can move the ball against this bad defense. You have to like the play here for cash games / security.
Pass Catchers
Targets:
McLaurin 26
Dotson 25
Samuel 20
L Thomas 14
TUrner 11
Gibson 10
Bates 8
Brown/Robinson 7
So Howell has mostly been going to his three wide receivers through the air. Jahan Dotson $7,000 has been the shorter-route guy with a 7.6 ADoT, but it’s been really inefficient when going to him so far with just a 56% completion percentage on his targets. Terry McLaurin $10,200 has the slightly better role with the 10.3 ADoT and a really impressive 81% catch rate, but there’s no way that Dotson is $3,200 worse than McLaurin here - Dotson is the clear value play through the air.
Curtis Samuel $5,600 is the third guy here with a significant target share, but he has a much lower ADoT at 6.3. He does get a carry or two in most games, and it’s especially interesting to have seen him getting all three of his carries this year in the red zone (he took one for a touchdown). Maybe that’s just a fluke - but we can expect 5+ targets for him with a definite red zone role here, so that’s someone to include in the player pool.
Logan Thomas $5,200 actually missed week two, which have kept his overall numbers down. But last week he played 78% of snaps and ran 40 routes - a big role. He notched just a 3-41-0 line on that, and his season target/route is low at 16%, so he’s not really a great DFS play in this spot - but he could certainly end up in an optimal lineup even with a 5-60-1 line for $5,200. It’s hard to write anybody with a role off in these showdowns.
Priority Plays
Sam Howell $9,400
Brian Robinson $9,200
Jahan Dotson $7,000
Secondary Plays
Terry McLaurin $10,000
Curtis Samuel $5,600
Commanders DST $5,400
Other Plays
Logan Thomas $5,200
Joey Slye $4,200
Punts
Antonio Gibson $3,200
Full Projections
Optimal Lineup
CPT Justin Fields
Sam Howell
Brian Robinson
Jahan Dotson
Joey Slye
Antonio Gibson