Check out the week five lineup reviewfor the full breakdown, but it was another losing week, and we’re getting closer to even on the season. I still think the plays have been in the right area; it’s just been a few weeks in a row of not making the exact right final decisions and seeing a couple of high-priced busts that really brought us down.
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We are starting with one of the big ones. The Ravens have given up 5.4 yards per play, which is around the league average. However, they have been shredded by quarterbacks with an 8.0 YPA that ranks fourth-worst in the league. Baltimore pass yards given up:
That’s a tough list of quarterbacks, so we have to factor that in - but I think it’s fair to say this is a beatable defense through the air.
The Commanders’ defense has been below-average in both facets, but they have mostly been torched on the ground, giving up 5.1 yards carry, which is second-worst in the league. This sets up very well for the Ravens to have success on the ground, which is their preferred method of attack (-10% PROE, fourth-lowest in the league).
Quarterbacks
We have two very good and very expensive quarterbacks in this game. Lamar Jackson ($7,800) leads the league in DraftKings points scored at the position with 130.5. He’s scored 28, 16, 26, 24, and 36 so far. The price is up $300 from where it’s been the last three weeks.
My general rule is to not play guys after price increases unless there’s a change in the environment. There’s no Ravens team change that makes Lamar a better play, but the matchup is pristine. I’m sure some people will go to him; this is certainly a stack-worthy game. I don’t think he’s the proper choice at QB for building a single high-floor lineup.
On the other side is Jayden Daniels, who is second in QB points with 113.4. His price has been climbing all year and jumped a huge $500 for this game with the Ravens.
He’s cleared 225 passing yards in his last four and has thrown four touchdowns while adding two on the ground in his last three games.
Both of these quarterbacks will be near the top of the projections. They’re both fine plays, and they have the floors and ceilings we’d like. That said, I don’t think the optimal move for the way I’m playing this is to pay a huge (and increasing) price tag for a quarterback.
Running Backs
It looks like the Commanders’ backfield is fully healthy after both guys had some injury questions in the last few weeks. That fact, plus the matchup where the Ravens have been tough on running backs, takes them off the page.
Derrick Henry ($8,000) has a nice max in price. He began the year at $6,900 and reached as low as $6,500, so this is a big price to pay for him. I don’t see a much better matchup for the big man, however. The Ravens are a substantial favorite, and the Commanders have a lot of trouble stopping guys on the ground. Everybody has trouble stopping Henry on the ground (he leads the league in rushing and averages 6.0 yards per carry), so the matchup is just the icing on the cake. I have rarely played Henry in my life, but this might be the week to do it.
Pass Catchers
Baltimore is all Jackson and Henry, so we aren’t going to their pass catchers. On the Commanders’ side, it’s been a two-man show through the air.
Ertz has seen at least four targets in every game, and that is typically something we like from a cheap tight end, but the ceiling feels like a dozen points with him, so we can’t go there.
McLaurin is dependent on the long ball to get a big score. His game log shows his downside:
He will get at least a handful of targets, and a couple of them will be way downfield. The ceiling is massive, but if he fails to catch a ball or two downfield, it can be pretty ugly. The red zone targets for the Commanders this year: Ertz (5), Robinson (3), McLaurin (2), McCaffrey (2). I don’t think Ertz has the ceiling we want, and I don’t think McLaurin has the floor we want.
Recap/Targets
It feels shakey to only have one target from this huge game total, but that is where I’ve landed. The only guy I put on the list is Derrick Henry ($8,000).
Cardinals vs. Packers
Game Environment
Over/Under: 49.5 Spread: Packers -5
The Cardinals are third-worst in the league with a 5.8 yards per play allowed. That’s pretty even against the pass and the rush, so there’s no clear method of attack against them. The Packers’ defense is in the middle of the pack at a 5.3 yards per play allowed, and they’re around league average against both the pass and the rush. Both offenses are in the middle of the pack in pace.
The 49.5 total is the third-highest on the slate, and the Packers have the third-highest implied total on the board at 27.25.
Quarterbacks
Since Jordan Love ($6,600)’s return, the Packers have thrown it 67% of the time for a -4% PROE. Love has gone 47/81 with 613 yards and a 6:4 TD:INT in these last two games. The Packers are perfectly fine with letting him rip it, and they go downfield quite a bit as well. Love has one very good fantasy result (31 points in week two) and two mediocre ones (16 points in both weeks one and five). For right now, I don’t see a ton to love in that $5,000-$6,000 range that we’ve been pounding, so that makes these mid-range guys a little bit more appealing. I think that I’d prefer to find the cash for one of the elite guys rather than pay this tag for a guy who doesn’t run, but I’ll throw him on the list.
Kyler Murray ($6,800) is still priced higher than I’d like, but he did show the rushing upside last week as he ripped off a long touchdown. That was just his second game of the year, clearing 20 DraftKings points, and he’s been under 200 passing yards in three of his five games. The Packers are an offense that can push you into catch-up mode, so I don’t hate Murray - I just doubt I'll land on him with this price tag (same story I just told with Love, if I’m paying up for a QB - I want to go the whole way up).
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs ($6,700) saw 43 snaps and 19 rush attempts last week. That sent Emanuel Wilson (15 snaps, six rushes) to the backseat again. We can’t say for sure that will be the case again this week, so that’s probably enough to not pay the $6,700 for Jacobs in this spot.
James Conner ($6,800) has averaged 17 rushes and 1.6 catches per game this year. He’s added three touchdowns on the ground, so it’s a fine role. The ceiling isn’t where we’d like it for $7,000. His season max is four targets and 33 receiving yards, so I’m off of him in this spot.
Pass Catchers
The Packers will be missing Christian Watson again here, but they’ll get Romeo Doubs and Luke Musgrave back. That opens things back up quite a bit, and it makes it tougher to play Jayden Reed ($7,000) with his $500 price increase. Jordan Love’s target distribution: Wicks (23), Reed (20), Kraft (18), Doubs (14), Jacobs (10), Watson (6). He does not lock on to Reed. And while Reed is the best of the bunch (355 yards, 23.7 yards per catch this year), the floor is too low for $7,000. Tucker Kraft ($4,800) saw a huge price increase, and Musgrave will factor in more this week - so he’s pretty easy to fade as well.
Dontayvion Wicks ($5,200) is dinged by the return of Doubs, so I think the Packers are a pretty easy passing game to avoid even while they are implied to score points here. The prices are up with injured guys returning, that’s not a good mix.
I don’t think I’ve played a Cardinals player all year. Trey McBride ($5,700) is the guy who makes my list almost every week with his big role in this offense (22% target share, 27% Tgt/Route). He still hasn’t had a game you had to have for the price, and it makes a lot more sense to me to opt for the cheaper tight ends, so I’m just going to leave him off the list this time.
Recap/Targets
I like the game environment, but I cannot isolate any players that I don’t see problems with, so we’ll go without anybody from this game.
Texans vs. Patriots
Game Environment
Over/Under: 37.5 Spread: Texans -7
The Patriots really drag down fantasy production. Their games have gone for 26, 33, 27, 43, and 25 points. The Patriots offense has been the second-worst in the league (to Cleveland), and that has pushed them finally to the move at quarterback as Drake Maye will make his first start. We also have a big injury on the other side with Nico Collins out for at least four weeks. There will be some value plays here.
Quarterbacks
The interesting play here is Drake Maye ($5,000). The price alone puts him in play, and we don’t often get a starting quarterback this cheap. Maye has played just 16 snaps this year, taking a drive at the end of week three. He went 4/8 for 22 yards and ran twice for 12 yards. In his last season in college, he ran for 449 yards in 12 games (about 40 yards per game), and he averaged 50 rushing yards per game the previous year. If we can get a 3-5 point floor with his legs, we’re really in business for the $5,000.
The play is not without risk. If we get like eight points from him, we’re way behind the competition who gets the 20-25 points from their quarterback, but he’s certainly in contention for my lineup this week because of the price and lack of other great options.
Running Backs
We might have another week without Joe Mixon here. That would make Dare Ogunbowale ($4,800) an interesting play to consider. He saw an elevated role last week, playing 45 snaps and running 26 routes to lead the running back room with 15 rushes and six catches. We can’t say for sure that he’s the main guy now ahead of Akers, but if he is - this $4,800 price tag is a steal. That’s especially true with Collins out; there are a bunch of targets to go around, and Ogunbowale is clearly the more capable pass-catching back.
Pass Catchers
We don’t have a full game sample with Collins out, but he did miss a good chunk of week five, so we can look at the numbers from that game.
Everybody was expecting a lot more from Tank Dell ($6,200) this year. He is the logical fill-in for Collins, but it’s a tough price tag on him here as the algorithm jacked him up $800 because of that injury. I think he could have a huge game. He made a number of huge plays last year, but $6,200 for a guy with a poor 15% Tgt/Route and 13-137-0 line on the season is tough to click on.
Stefon Diggs ($7,400) has also seen his price increase $500. So we are essentially looking at a situation where the prices have been adjusted to offset the opportunity that Collins left behind.
The one guy who hasn’t moved in price is Dalton Schultz ($4,100). He’s an interesting play at tight end. He has 22 targets in five games for a 13% Tgt/Route and 7.4 ADoT. I think we can get 5-8 targets here, and that works for $4,100.
Recap/Targets
The fact that DraftKings was proactive on the price adjustments on the Houston side makes this a less interesting game than I thought, but I still have three plays here. Drake Maye, Dalton Schultz, and Dare Ogunbowale are all on the list (but Dare is off the list if Mixon is active).
Bucs vs. Saints
Game Environment
Over/Under: 42.5 Spread: Bucs -2
The Saints are without Derek Carr, so that is likely to slow them down quite a bit. The Bucs are a fairly simple team to get your head around. The throw a lot, split the backfield work, and throw a bunch to two guys.
I doubt we’ll find too much to like in this game since there are no environmental changes with Tampa Bay, and the Saints are going to over-priced since those price tags were influenced by Derek Carr.
Quarterbacks
The Saints can be beaten through the air, but Baker Mayfield is up to $6,500, which is just not all that interesting of a play.
I just wrote about liking Drake Maye at $5,000. In this game, we have Spencer Rattler at $4,000. He hasn’t been announced as the starter, but if he is - that’s very interesting. He’s a rookie who has not seen the field yet, so we don’t know much about him. He did not run much at all in college, so the floor is extremely low. I’d prefer Maye at $5,000, but getting a QB play for $4,000 gives us a lot of options as we build out the rest of the lineup.
Running Backs
I can’t get behind Alvin Kamara ($7,700) with the question marks at quarterback. The other side is a pretty tough split between Rachaad White ($5,700) and Bucky Irving ($5,400). It’s a pass here.
Pass Catchers
Chris Godwin ($6,900) and Mike Evans ($7,300) are both priced right. One of them seems to go off each week, but the prices are too high and it’s too tough to predict who will have the big game to bother with it.
Recap/Targets
I don’t think I’ll end up on anyone from this game, but I could see a world where I play Spencer Rattler for that $4,000 tag.
Browns vs. Eagles
Game Environment
Over/Under: 43.5 Spread: Eagles-8.5
The Browns are a bad football team, but their defense is still pretty good. They’re sixth-best in fantasy points allowed per snap, and you can see a moderately low total here.
The Eagles are likely back at full strength, so that takes away all of the value we’ve been finding for them. So this is a pretty easy game to ignore.
Quarterbacks
I thought we might get a Jameis Winston ($5,100) week, which would have been awesome - but apparently not! Jalen Hurts ($7,200) is not in play against the Browns.
Running Backs
The one play you can make a case for is Saquon Barkley ($8,200). The Browns have given up 4.6 yards per rush to opposing running backs but still haven’t given up a single game over 20 points. Only Devin Singletary went above 15 points, but Barkley is the best back the Browns will have seen all year by a good margin.
Barkley is right there in price with Derrick Henry, and I’d prefer Henry for right now. But we can put Barkley on the list just for checking purposes later.
Pass Catchers
We can’t play any Browns receiver until they move on from Watson. The Eagles plays are fine, but the prices just aren’t right with everybody back on the field.
Recap/Targets
Only Barkley makes the list.
Colts vs. Titans
Game Environment
Over/Under: 43 Spread: Colts -1
The Colts defense has been bad. They rank second-worst in the league with 5.8 yards per pass attempt allowed, and they’re just average against the run.
The Titans’ defense has allowed the third-best yards per play in the league at 4.2.
It’s a tight spread, so the game could be competitive - but the shootout chances feel pretty low here, with both offenses preferring the run and not being all that great offensively.
Quarterbacks
Anthony Richardson ($6,000) is likely back here, which takes pretty much the whole Colts offense off the board.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor ($7,500) is questionable here, and he seems more on the doubtful side of that. Without him last week, Trey Sermon ($6,000) saw 10 carries and six catches. He was held under 70 total yards and was saved by a touchdown. With Richardson back in, there’s no way we can go there.
On the Titans side, Tony Pollard ($6,000) has had a decent season so far, with four yards per carry, two touchdowns, and 13 catches in four games. The ceiling isn’t where you want it to be, and Tyjae Spears ($5,100) has seen his role slowly increase. There’s nothing great about the Pollard play, but it’s not the worst thing in the world either.
Pass Catchers
Joe Flacco is good for the Colts offense. They’ve piled up 527 pass yards in his two games, and that has gotten 21 targets to Josh Downa and 17 to Michael Pittman. But with Richardson back, their projections get much worse.
Calvin Ridley ($5,700) will have a big game at some point with his league-leading 19.5 ADoT. But we can’t play him with how bad the quarterback play has been in Tennessee.
Recap/Targets
I put Tony Pollard on the list, but I’m pretty confident I won’t have any real interest in this game.
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