Week 6 TNF Showdown Analysis
A statistics and projection-powered breakdown of the Week 6 Showdown Matchup on DraftKings - Broncos vs. Chiefs
Tip Jar:
Game Environment
Line: KC -10.5
O/U: 47
It’s setting up to be an ugly one. One of the best teams in the league at home against one of the worst with some less than ideal weather going on as well. There’s nothing notable on the injury front now with Travis Kelce effectively being probable with the high ankle stuff.
Plots
The Broncos have been the worst defense int he league, although a lot of that has to do with that outlier shellacking by the Dolphins. But even if you normalize that, their dot is still way up and to the left.
The Chiefs have been better than average. They’re giving up 4.3 yards per carry, that’s about at the league average, and they’ve been great at limiting yards through the air at just 6.0 yards per pass attempt.
Pass Rates:
Chiefs: 66% (+6.4% OE)
Broncos: 67% (-3.3 OE)
The Chiefs have played with leads, and the Broncos have not. The Chiefs like to throw it, and the Broncos don’t seem to. Let’s get into the team breakdowns.
Broncos
Quarterback Play
Russell Wilson $9,600 has been pretty good this year with a 68% completion percentage with a 7.52 YPA and a nice 11:2 TD:INT ratio. He has gone for 16, 29, 17, 22, and 19 DraftKings points - so that’s slightly above the average quarterback, and he’s had two games with relevant yardage on the ground (56 yards in week two, 49 in week five). The Chiefs inflate pass attempts a bit, having 37 attempts against them per game this year, which is 8th-most in the league.
So with some good play and some luck, Russ could definitely be a guy you want in your lineups since 300+ yards and a couple touchdowns is definitely in the range of outcomes here.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams $7,200 will return this week after missing most of their week four game and all of last week due to injury. His usage in the three games he’s been healthy for:
28 snaps, 12 routes, 13-52-0 rushing, 4-5-0 receiving
28 snaps, 11 routes, 12-44-0 rushing, 2-14-0 receiving
25 snaps, 12 routes, 11-42-0 rushing, 2-23-0 receiving
He has yet to score double-digit fantasy points.
The guy who has gotten the most work in this backfield is Samaje Perine $5,000
26 snaps, 16 routes, 8-41-0 rushing, 4-37-0 receiving
31 snaps, 25 routes, 1-4-0, rushing, 4-37-0 receiving
19 snaps, 12 routes, 3-9-0 rushing, 3-20-0 receiving
22 snaps, 11 routes, 6-12-0 rushing, 2-23-0 receiving
35 snaps, 28 routes, 6-22-0 rushing, 4-73-0 receiving
He hasn’t had a useful fantasy game yet either despite averaging a handful fo carries and four targets per game.
Jaleel McLaughlin $7,000 had a couple of nice fantasy games the last two weeks, scoring 19.4 and 17.9 fantasy points, but that was because of the injury to Williams. He saw 0, 1, and 5 carries in weeks 1-3 with just a single target and a max of 12 snaps played. Maybe his performance earned him a larger role than that, but he’s completely unplayable at $7,000 with Williams back.
The red zone carries from weeks 1-3:
Williams 4
Perine 3
McLaughlin 3
Nothing clear here, but it is interesting that McLaughlin got those three red zone carries (and a touchdown) while hardly playing any snaps - they may view him as a preferred short-yardage back.
All of that leaves us without a running back we want to play here. But this is a one-game slate, so there’s still a decent chance one of these guys pops into the optimal lineup so we might want to get some exposure to them in multi-entry.
Pass Catchers
Data since week 2 (leaving off week one since Jerry Jeudy missed):
Player...Snaps…Routes…Targets…ADoT
Sutton……….201…….130…27…..9.9
Trautman….196……116…...9…….5.2
Jeudy…………168……135…..24…..13.2
Johnson..……64…….84…….8…….9.9
Mims…………50…….12…..…10…..24.3
So it’s mostly Courtland Sutton $7,800 and Jerry Jeudy $9,000. They have totaled for a 54% target share since week one. The price difference there probably makes Sutton the better play. You can see how much Wilson hates tight ends, looking their way just 17 times on 200 total routes - so we can fade those guys (Trautman & Johnson).
Marvin Mims $4,600 has some upside with his limited role. You can see he’s only run 12 routes in these last four games, but has been targeted on almost all of them and they’ve mostly been down-field passes. There’s an outside chance he hauls in a long one tonight, and if that turns into a touchdown he could be the key to taking down a tourney tonight.
Priority Plays
Russell Wilson $9,600
Courtland Sutton $7,800
A 10 point underdog with a competent QB under $10K is pretty hard to pass up on in Showdown, and Sutton’s price is just too cheap for a guy averaging 6.4 targets per game and a prominent red zone role (three touchdowns this year already).
Secondary Plays
Jerry Jeudy $9,000
Other Plays
Javonte Williams $7,200
Samaje Perine $5,000
Marvin Mims $4,600
Chiefs
Quarterback Play
Patrick Mahomes $12,800 hasn’t blown the doors off anybody yet with a season-high 26 fantasy points. he’s been above 19 points in every game but one and the volume is there as always. He’s chucked it 39, 41, 33, 30, and 40 times this year while adding 45, 29, 28, 51, and 0 rush yards along the way.
This isn’t a ceiling spot for Mahomes facing a team we don’t think can keep pace, and Mahomes’ weapons are probably at a career-worst for him right now (and maybe a career-worst specifically tonight with Kelce’s ankle thing going on).
In a vacuum, that price is probably too high - but we’re not in a vacuum. The Chiefs have few reliable fantasy point scorers, and the Broncos don’t figure to score a ton of points as a unit - so you pretty much have to pay the price to lock in the 20 floor points.
Running Backs
Player…Snaps…Carries…Routes…Targets this year:
Pacheco…...173…71…84…13
McKinnon…96….7.…71…..12
CEH…….….. 62…28…32….5
Isiah Pacheco $9,400 has had a solid start to the season with a 71-325-3 line on the ground an 11-99-0 through the air. It’s never been a great offense to be a fantasy running back in, but he has taken advantage of the opportunity so far.
When Jerick McKinnon $5,200 is on the field, he’s running routes and earning a good number of targets. He also has two receiving touchdowns already, so he’s a guy they really like to get involved in high-value spots. That keeps him firmly in the mix for tournaments.
Pass Catchers
The Chiefs have always spread it around, but it’s gone to a new level this year.
Chiefs 2023 Targets:
Kelce 37
Rice 24
Toney 19
Moore 17
Watson 16
Gray 15
Pacheco 13
McKinnon 12
MVS 11
Ross 6
CEH 5
James 3
Bell 3
Smith 1
Travis Kelce $11,000 is the second-most expensive player on the slate. He’s been solid enough this year with a 27-222-3 line in just four games, but it’s a low ADoT this year at 5.2 and there’s a definite decline in the explosiveness for him - and that could be even more accentuated tonight with the ankle and the wet conditions. He’s a fine fade tonight in cash I think with the ceiling just not being where it usually has been with him - but he’s probably the league’s most likely player to catch multiple touchdowns on any given week, so the fade is risky.
The #2 guy appears to be Rashee Rice $6,400 whose 24 targets are second on the team. He leads the league with a 2.26 yards per route run and his 47% target per route run leads the freaking league, although that’s on just 51 routes run. But that really does show you that this is a skilled player, he’s getting open and Mahomes like getting him the ball - so he’s a fantastic upside play for just the $6,400 - although the floor is quite low. He’s scored 11.6, 4, 10.9, 6.2, and 13.3 fantasy points so far this year - so no scores that you couldn’t go without in this spot.
You could actually say pretty much the same stuff about Kadarius Toney $4,000, who is also in the league’s top five in targets per route run, but just hasn’t been on the field very much. I prefer Rice, even for the cost, but Toney is a tournament play for sure.
Skyy Moore $5,400 and Marquez Valdes-Scantling $3,400 get on the field more than those last two guys we talked about, but they don’t appear to be very good with 0.97 and 0.82 yards/route respectively (Kelce is at 2.07, Rice at 3.39, Toney at 1.43).
The last guy to mention is Justin Watson $2,200. He’s played 143 snaps (more than Rice and Toney) and has seen 16 targets with a high 22.6 ADoT (that leads the league). The catch rate is low and the floor is legitimately zero (he’s scored 6.5, 7.2, 7.1, 1.5, and 7.6 points this year), but a long touchdown catch is something that can certainly happen for him and that would be a slate-changing occurrence for that price.
Priority Play
Patrick Mahomes $12,800
Isiah Pacheco $9,400
Secondary Plays
Travis Kelce $11,000
Harrison Butker $4,800
Rashee Rice $6,400
Other Plays
Jerick McKinnon $5,200
Kadarius Toney $4,000
Chiefs DST $5,600
Justin Watson $4,200
It’s a somewhat easy slate to play cash/small contests on. We know who the safe plays are on both sides of the ball, it’s not hard to build a safe-floor lineup, but tournaments are wild here.
If you’re mass entering, you probably want to pick a few of these secondary/other plays and stick to them. I don’t think you go in there trying to get exposure to every little option - because there are just too many of them. Do a full MVS/Moore/McKinnon fade and then if those guys beat you, just be okay with it. Or something like that. Get a smaller, more concentrated player pool - and then attack all the different variations with that group of players. That’s what I’m going to try to do.
Full Projections and optimal lineup below the paywall.