What is Bat Speed Useful For?
A look at the bat speed data that was made available to us in 2024, with an eye on how we can best use it for future evaluation in fantasy baseball.
This is a simple one and less interesting than other things I’ve written. But I want to cover it. In 2024, we, the public, got access to bat speed data through Baseball Savant. We can use that data for the purposes of fantasy draft preparation for the first time. Let me quickly give you an idea of what the data looks like and then give you my thoughts on how we can use it to our advantage.
The Data
We have to be smart with this data. Check swings and other non-competitive swings throw off the data. The way I do it is to just take away all swings under 60mph, and that will get rid of those swings we don’t want to measure, and then we can take the average from there. It’s all on the Bat Tracking tab of the main dashboard.
Your highest marks of 2024 in average bat speed:
Giancarlo Stanton 80.6
Oneil Cruz 77.9
Kyle Schwarber 79.9
Jhonkensy Noel 80.5
Matt Walnler 79.9
Your lowest:
Luis Arraez 66.6
Whit Merrifield 66.8
Xavier Edwards 67.7
Nicky Lopez 67.8
Luis Guillorme 68.1
The distribution:
25th Percentile: 68mph
Average: 71mph
75th Percentile: 75mph
Max: 88mph
So now you know generally what numbers are good and bad. Here’s how average bat speed correlates with stats we actually care about when evaluating fantasy hitters.
Correlations With Bat Speed
AVG EV: .768
Brl%: .684
HR/BIP: .596
K%: .367
I hope you’re not surprised that the harder you swing the bat, the harder the ball comes off the bat!
I could get into a bunch of details about swing speed efficiency, but I don’t think that’s really worth the time right now - so I’ll quickly summarize. Some guys are better at turning slower swings into higher exit velocities and vice versa.
The five “most efficient” hitters in the league, as measured by the difference between their average exit velocity and average bat speed:
Jonathan Aranda
Josh Rojas
Luis Arraez
Justin Turner
Tyler Nevin
This is accomplished by “squaring up” the ball at a high rate. These guys are hitting balls “on the screws” at a high rate, and that usually means a lot of line drives. The “least efficient”:
Jhonkensy Noel
Garrett Mitchell
Junior Caminero
Giancarlo Stanton
Christopher Morel
These are guys that swing very hard but mishit balls at a higher rate.
But none of this is useful for us drafting players next year. So, let’s get to that.
How To Use It
My answer is simple. If you have a big sample (200+ balls in play, to put a number on it), just ignore it. The other stats we use to describe ball in play profiles tell you everything bat speed tells you and way more.
The way to use it, then, is to get an idea of power potential with low-sample players. If a hitter has just 50 plate appearances in the Majors, there’s very little we can learn from their barrel rate, ground ball rate, etc. But we will know how hard they’re swinging the bat by then. So, let’s look at small-sample players with high and low bat speeds.
Targets
The players to upgrade in your 2025 fantasy drafts while others may be sleeping on them:
Jhonkensy Noel (deep leagues): I doubt he’s an everyday player for Cleveland out of the gate. They were platooning him against lefties only in the postseason, but we’ll see how their roster shakes out. But you should know this guy’s raw power is among the game’s elite. He’ll hit homers, it’s just a question of if he can get the strikeout rate down below 30%.
Matt Wallner (deep leagues): We have seen a good amount of Wallner, so people are keen on him. He’s another platoon guy, but he’s on the strong side of that as a guy who gets a lot of starts against righties. Huge bat speed and a high home run rate.
Junior Caminero: I think Caminero should be given a shot in all in leagues next year. His K% was very strong at 22%, and the bat speed is way up there. He just needs to lift the ball more next year. If he does that, he’ll have a huge year.
Garrett Mitchell (deep leagues): Mitchell has a shot to avoid a platoon, and he also has some steals upside. So you can take a shot on him in standard leagues early on next year just to see what happens. The K% was high (32%), but the power and speed combination is enticing.
Jasson Dominguez: I’m still not sure if this is a real person. It feels like I’ve been told he’d break into the league soon for the last 17 years. He’ll be 22 at the beginning of next season, so it would seem to be time to give him a job. He hit .314/.376/.504 in 250 minor league PAs last year with 11 homers (a 23 PA/HR) and a 20% K%. The swing speed was very high in his short MLB sample, so there’s a large power ceiling for this kid, provided that he is actually a real person.
Joey Bart (deep leagues): He’s not going to be a top-12 catcher for me, so we should ignore him in those one-catcher leagues. But in two-catcher leagues, the power potential is very much enough to justify him as a top-20 option.
Fades
This is just to say you shouldn’t believe their power potential next year, not that you should outright fade them in all circumstances.
Jacob Wilson: Maybe he can hit for a high batting average, but this guy isn’t going to hit homers.
Trevor Story: He came back late in the year and slashed .255/.340/.394 with two homers in his 106 PAs. Maybe the lack of bat speed was because he wasn’t quite healthy yet or holding back just to play it safe - but the number is low. I think it’s pretty fair to temper power expectations for the 32-year-old.
Brooks Lee: He was awesome in his first couple of weeks but struggled thereafter. The bat speed comes in at 69.1, so there’s not much chance of a 15+ homer season.
Kris Bryant: We don’t have numbers from prior to 2024, but I’m guessing Bryant was formerly much better than the 69.2mph swing speed he posted last year. He’s washed.
Jonathan Aranda: I don’t think many leagues are going to consider this guy, but just in case. He generated a 16.5% Brl%, which is not at all supported by his 69.8mph average bat speed.
Miguel Vargas: Another name who won’t get drafted in most leagues, but another bad mark here at 69.8.
Parker Meadows: I will not be fading Meadows as a young lead-off man with a history of steals and enough power to matter. Just take note that his swing speed came in at 70mph, so there’s probably not any 30-homer upside in him.
There are plenty more names to pick out in the data linked above if you want to get into it. But that wasn’t the original purpose of this post. I just wanted to lay out the strategy for using bat speed data. So, to recap:
Once a hitter has 200+ batted balls, ignore it
Until then, you can check their bat speed to get an idea of what kind of power potential they have. If they’re very low in bat speed, do not project/expect many homers. If they have high bat speed, they have larger power potential (but it’s not a guarantee because they have to manage their strikeout and ground ball rates at the same time).
That’s it for this one!