Wild Card Slate Preview - October 1st
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
It’s playoff time! The first day of the playoffs always feels a little bit like Opening Day. With the expanded playoffs, we get two rounds where there are eight teams playing, which gives us a handful of days where have 3-4 games. Today and tomorrow are guaranteed to have four games, so we can even get into the DFS waters a bit. So, I’m running a Wild Card DraftKings contest for $5 here:
Join the DraftKings Contest Here
Series Thoughts
Tigers vs. Astros
The Tigers are probably the worst team to make the playoffs, and they get the unplesant task of being the first team to try to stop the Astros from making their eighth straight ALCS. That Astros core has slowly been degrading, but they have enough of it in tact to make a run at it again this year. They have two elite bats in Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, a strong bullpen, and four SPs you don’t hate in Valdez, Kikuchi, Arrighetti, and Brown.
On the Tigers side, it is somewhat a one-man show. Tarik Skubal might be the game’s best starting pitcher. After that though, yikes! They did enough to make that incredible run into the playoff picture, but even during that - the offense slashed just .240/.307/.389 in the final two months. I like Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter more than most people, but this is a very beatable lineup at the end of the day.
The hope for the Tigers here is pretty simple.
Skubal does Skubal things and they get a timely hit or two today
They luck into winning one of the next two
If they do win today, they’re the clear series favorite. It’s not super easy to beat anybody twice in a row. It’s a much tougher thing for the Tigers to beat the Astros twice in a row without having Skubal. So today’s game is absolutely huge for Detroit.
My pick: Astros In Three.
Royals vs. Orioles
This is the game to watch today, in my opinion. We get Cole Ragans vs. Corbin Burnes. A beautiful matchup. The Orioles were looking like a World Series front-runner in the first few months, but it’s been a pretty mediocre second half. They do not have Grayson Rodriguez for the playoffs, so after Burnes they are looking at Eflin/Povich/Kremer. They have two big-time bats in Henderson and Santander, but again - it’s just not that intimidating after the top tier. And the bullpen kind of stinks.
The Royals aren’t the greatest team on paper either, but you would have to take Ragans + Lugo over plenty of these other top twos. Ragans posted a 3.19 ERA on a 20.5 K-BB% this year while Lugo bested him at a 3.05 ERA on a 15.9% mark. The SP3 is Michael Wacha (3.35 ERA, 14.6% K-BB%). It’s a strong 1-2 punch. They are very reliant on Bobby Witt Jr. to do big things offensively. Nobody else had an OPS above .800 on this team. They got another nice season from Salvador Perez, who homered 27 times and slugged .458. They could also maybe get Vinnie Pasquantino back for this series - we don’t have the answer on that yet. Those are their top three bats, and after that - it’s pretty ugly.
I don’t think either team is a real World Series threat.
My Pick: Royals in Two
Mets vs. Brewers
The Mets squeaked into the playoffs with a game one win yesterday. They enter with a very solid lineup featuring Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Mark Vientos and their 93 combined homers. Home runs will help you win games, there’s no doubt about it - and the Brewers can allow the homer. So the Mets have a shot. However, they might have the worst rotation in the postseason. They’re rolling with Luis Severino in game one, and then I’d imagine it’s Sean Manaea in game two with Jose Quintana or David Peterson at least beginning game three if necessary. That’s all pretty ugly.
The Brewers rotation isn’t much better, if at all - but at least they have a very skilled arm in Freddy Peralta to open things up for them.
Neither team is overly impressive, but the playoffs are weird and anything can happen.
My pick: Brewers in Three
Braves vs. Padres
The Braves roll with a hall of fame IL. Acuna, Sale, Strider, and Riley are all out of the picture now. Brutal stuff. To make things worse, they burned Schwellenbach yesterday and had to use that bullpen a bunch. They’re in brutal shape while the Padres are peaking.
San Diego will be a big favorite in each game of the series, so I think they cruise through this one and go onto take on the Dodgers, and that would be a very exciting series.
My Pick: Padres in Two.
Now, let’s talk about the DFS slate!
Jon’s DFS Preview
I’m going full out for this slate. All day long of crucial baseball games, let’s hope we can put together a winning DFS lineup to make it even more fun.
Pitchers
Framber Valdez $8,500 vs. Tigers
Valdez has the highest implied odds of recording a win here at +220. He is the top projected arm in my model with 17.39 projected points on his 92 pitches. The Tigers have posted a .298 xwOBA against left-handed pitching this year with a higher than average 25% K%. This is by far the best matchup on the slate here. Pricing is always pretty tight on these four-game slates, so we don’t have to worry too much about it.
Michael King $8,100 vs. Braves
King is at +210 for a win, so he’s right there with Skubal. He’s had a great season with a big-time 28% K% and a manageable 8.4% BB%. The Braves had to fly cross-country 24 hours ahead of this game, and they played two games yesterday with full urgency. That stuff is all marginal; I can’t say the Braves are a fantastic matchup - they just aren’t an overly imposing one this year while lacking Acuna and Riley.
The model likes King as the #2 SP, and he and Valdez cost just $16,600 together.
Tarik Skubal $9,600 vs. Astros
I imagine a lot of people will go here. Skubal is the best pitcher on the board today, I don’t see much argument about that. My model does not like this matchup for him, projecting him a good step behind the first two guys we talked about. With the price being way up there at $9,600 - the projections are telling us to stay away.
Strikeouts are king on DraftKings, and the Astros lineup is full of contact hitters. Some of the strikeout rates vs. LHP here:
Yordan Alvarez 18.8%
Alex Breagman 8.9%
Yainer Diaz 16.6%
Jose Altuve 16.6%
Kyle Tucker 16.1%
Jeremy Pena 12.0%
I’m not saying that Skubal doesn’t have 10+ strikeout upside, but the expected outcome does not justify the price tag here.
Cole Ragans $8,800 vs. Orioles
Ragans might be the second-best pitcher on the slate in terms of raw ability, and the Orioles do strikeout a bit against lefties:
Henderson 25%
Santander 24%
Cowser 35%
Mountcastle 28%
Westburg 29%
Rutschman 13%
Ragans strikeout rate for the year ended at 29.3%, but it’s been a point or two lower than that more recently, depending on where you drop the split. He began the year averaging around 96mph on the fastball, but since July it’s down to 95mph. It is possible he gasses it up for the playoffs - that wouldn’t be surprising to see. This is also a very friendly ballpark to left-handed pitchers. So it’s a fine spot for Ragans, but he’s a small step behind King and Framber in the projection model.
The model really, really hates Corbin Burnes $8,300. He has not been a high strikeout guy this year, and the Royals make a bunch of contact.
If I’m building just one lineup, I’m going to go with Valdez and King. I think Ragans is in the mix, and Freddy Peralta isn’t the worst play either at $7,900. The projections have treated us well this year, so I’m going to ride with them today.
Verdict: Valdez $8,500 + King $8,100
Team Offense
Vegas implied run totals:
Padres 4.5
Brewers 4.4
Orioles 4.0
Astros 3.6
Mets 3.4
Braves 2.9
Royals 2.8
Tigers 2.6
We are still waiting for a starter to be announced for the Braves. The best guess right now is Bryce Elder. That probably means the Braves bullpen will be heavily involved here. Elder is bad. He allowed a .864 OPS against with a 2.50 WHIP+; he gave up a .323 xwOBA to righties and a .368 mark to lefties. The Padres are the top unit to go to.
The Brewers are the second team to prioritize at home against Luis Severino. Sev had given up a 2.20 WHIP+ with a .769 OPS allowed on a 24% K% and a low 41% GB%. Lefties have really crushed him with a .373 xwOBA - so we can focus on some of those cheaper Brewers’ left-handed fly ballers.
Priority Plays
Brice Turang $4,000: You’re rarely going to find an elite hitting matchup in the postseason, but we’re pretty close to having one here with the Brewers left-handed bats against Severino. He’s the top projected second baseman, and he’s one of the cheaper ones to boot.
Francisco Lindor $5,600: Lindor would be your NL MVP if not for that Ohtani guy. He ripped off 32 homers and 29 steals to finish ninth in the league in fantasy point scoring. Peralta is not a guy we love to pick on, but Lindor projects for the second-most fantasy points on the slate at a price we can get to.
Jackson Chourio $4,300: Chourio had a massive second half with a .313/.366/.556 line. He homered a dozen times and added exactly that many steals. The Brewers are at the top of the board for us, so we can lock in Chourio here for some useful savings in the outfield.
William Contreras $4,700: Contreras is far and away the best hitting catcher on the slate. We can say that confidently with Rutschman’s poor second half and his tough matchup with Ragans today. It’s tough to spend this much at catcher, so it’s possible we still end up going down to a punt option like Victor Caratini $2,800 or James McCann $3,000 depending on who is in the lineup - but Contreras is tier one by himself at the position today.
Jackson Merrill $4,300: I can’t say for sure it’s Elder for the Braves. Whoever it is will be a good matchup for Merrill, who had a fantastic rookie season and projects very nicely here at $4,300.
Fernando Tatis Jr. $5,500: Tatis did not earn a $5,500 tag this year with his .828 OPS and 21 homer season. But he has almost earned it of late. He has slashed .267/.290/.578 since August 1st with seven homers (13 PA/HR) and three steals. There are a lot of strikeouts in his game lately (27%), but that’s not much of a concern against Elder or whoever the Braves will open this game with. The ceiling is huge, and I want some exposure to the Padres lineup.
Value Bats
I have started my lineup with Valdez + King + Turang + Lindor + Chourio + Merrill + Tatis. That gives me just $3,233 per slot to spend at C, 1B, and 3B. So let’s find some value bats.
Victor Caratini $2,800: Playing a bad hitter against Tarik Skubal obviously isn’t something we want to do in a perfect world, but we need some savings. Caratini is in the lineup, hitting 7th. For what it’s worth, he has hit well against lefties this year at a .282 xBA and a .331 xwOBA. Again, Skubal is a different story - but $2,800 is a price we need to make this lineup work, and we can use him at either catcher or first base.
Adam Frazier $2,200: Frazier should get a few balls in play here. He has just a 20% K% on the year, while Burnes has a 21% K% against lefties. There’s almost no chance for a homer, and he’s not really a steals guy either - but $2,200 for a third baseman here is huge for our build.
This lineup came together absolutely perfectly. The best values fit perfectly in with the best plays - it was absolutely incredible to watch it come together like that. Wow!
SP: Valdez $8,500
SP: King $8,100
C: Contreras $4,700
1B: Caratini $2,800
2B: Turang $4,000
3B: Frazier $2,200
SS: Lindor $5,600
OF: Tatis $5,500
OF: Chourio $4,300
OF: Merrill $4,300
It’s baseball, and baseball is weird. This lineup could flame out, but I’m feeling really nice about it. I got all the preferred plays and I don’t hate a single play in there.
Prop Bets
Tarik Skubal Under 5.5 Strikeouts +135 (DraftKings)
Corbin Burnes Under 17.5 Outs +120 (Caesars)
Tarik Skubal Over 4.5 Hits Allowed -154 (Caesars)
To throw a couple parlays at the wall for fun.
Parlay #1
DET/HOU Over 6 -118
Royals Moneyline +130
Brewers Moneyline -148
Padres Moneyline -175
Overall: +1018
Parlay #2
Victor Caratini Over 0.5 Hits -135
Michael Massey Over 0.5 Hits -145
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 TB +130
Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 TB +105
Overall: +1286
That’s it, happy postseason Tuesday! On to the normal automated reports.