Three road underdogs took game one, and then the Padres took care of the Braves with relative ease.
We should tweak pitch count expectations slightly for the teams that are down a game. These are elimination games for the Astros, Orioles, Brewers, and Braves. That would mean they’re less likely to let the SP pitch himself out of trouble early on. I’ve built that into the pitch count projections, but we should still have that in mind when making our selections.
Jon’s DFS Preview
Pitchers
What a difference a day makes! It turns out that none of these teams have a truly dominant SP2. This is not the pitching slate you would expect from just the second day of the postseason.
Sean Manaea ($8,200) vs. Brewers
Manaea gets the benefit of being up a game in the series, and he’s the top projected arm on the board. That doesn’t mean I’m confident in him, because I’m not. I’m never confident with Manaea. The Brewers have struggled against lefties (.234/.308/.378 since August began), but this is Sean Manaea we’re talking about. He is one of the most volatile pitchers in the league. This year, at least, that came with plenty of peaks along with the valleys.
Sean Manaea 2024 DraftKings Scoring Log
I am building one lineup for this slate, and putting one of my two chips on this guy is terrifying. Given the lack of other options, though, it might be the proper play.
Hunter Brown ($8,300) vs. Tigers
The Astros are willing to use Kikuchi out of the bullpen this game. If they don’t, he will start game three - but clearly he’s in their mind as a guy who could handle a few innings here. That makes me think this could be a really short outing for Brown if he gets himself into trouble, or if the Tigers have a guy or two on base with their two big lefties (Carpenter and Green) coming to bat. The Tigers have also been decent against righties during this stretch they’re on, posting a .408 SLG and a .717 OPS since August 1st. The model has Brown as the #2 SP, but I think the risk of an early hook is too great for me to play him.
Joe Musgrove ($8,000) vs. Braves
Musgrove has the advantage the series leads gives. He’s also been healthy and making regular starts since August 12th, so the injury stuff is behind him. He’s also posted an elite 29% K% and 4% BB% since returning. All four of his most used pitches have strike rates over 50% - he’s been great. And we saw last night how flat this Braves lineup can come out. The one thing that could hurt him is how rested that elite Padres bullpen is. They only had to use Jason Adam (15 pitches) and Robert Suarez (8 pitches) last night, so they have everybody ready to go again. If Musgrove pitches anywhere near as well as King did last night, they’ll let him get deep in the game, but if there’s any lack in his performances, you could see them opting for the bullpen after four or five innings. I still feel pretty good about Musgrove given how fantastic he’s looked since getting healthy.
Max Fried ($8,700) vs. Padres
It hasn’t been the best season for Fried. He made 29 starts, threw 174.1 innings, and posted another strong 3.25 ERA. However, the K% was mediocre at 23% and the walk rate was at a level we haven’t seen from Fried in a long time (8%). He is never the most reliable guy for DFS purposes with the lower strikeout rate, and this is a pretty tough matchup in a must-win spot. I think it’s risky, but at least we know Fried is a very good pitcher with plenty of big-game experience.
He has gone very fastball heavy, and it’s worked very well. The velocity on these fastballs has also risen. He’s added a mile per hour to each one since putting on the new uniform.
It’s still really hard to trust a guy with a 13% K-BB% and 46.8% Strike% on the season. The reason to play him would be that you think he’s truly a high strikeout guy now, and also to take advantage of the cheaper price tag. I’m not completely opposed to it, it’s like we have two options here we would consider safe.
This is a tough one. I think I’m locked into Musgrove ($8,200), but I am not going to feel good about whoever I pick for the second slot. The model tells us to go with Manaea and Musgrove, with Montas pretty much even with them when considering price.
I think I’ll put Musgrove in, and then see where the hitter selections take me.
Team Offense
Implied run totals:
Astros 4.8
Orioles 4.7
Mets 4.0
Brewers 3.9
Padres 3.7
Royals 3.1
Braves 3.1
Tigers 3.0
The Astros are up against a bullpen game for the Tigers, and it’s not a very good bullpen either. It does give Detroit a slight advantage of being able to pick and choose matchups, but that doesn’t hold the Astros back from being the top projected team on this slate.
Priority Bats
Francisco Lindor ($5,700) vs. Montas: Lindor has a huge 15.3% Brl%, 78% Contact%, and a .402 xwOBA against right-handed fastballs, and he’ll see a ton of those against Montas today. I’m locking him in
William Contreras ($4,900) vs. Manaea: He posted a .313/.392/.486 line against lefties this year. He sees the ball extremely well against them, and hits the ball hard quite a bit. He mostly gets there with singles and doubles (57% GB% against lefties), but the floor is very nice here with Contreras - he’s again the top catcher player.
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,200) vs. Eflin: I prefer the $500 savings to Lindor given how tough it is to homer against Eflin in Baltimore, but the ceiling on Witt is nearly unmatched in any matchup.
Jackson Chourio ($4,400) vs. Manaea: Over his last 108 PAs against lefties, Chourio has slashed .320/.352/.447. The .392 BABIP has helped, and he isn’t oozing with raw power - but he’s still too cheap for a guy that can score points in every way at the top of a good lineup.
Michael Harris II ($4,900) vs. Musgrove: I am almost surely playing Musgrove, but on a four-game slate, I’m not afraid to play a hitter against my pitcher. Harris has a huge .392 xwOBA since returning from injury in August, and he’ll be at the top of the Braves lineup tonight against a righty.
Mark Vientos ($4,400) vs. Montas: Vientos has hit right-handed fastballs quite well in his own right (.397 xwOBA, 15.3% Brl%), so I like the price tag on him at third base.
Value Bats
We need to find some cheap bats here. That’s never an easy thing to pull off with just four games on the slate, but here are the available guys that can make our lineup work.
Sal Frelick ($2,800) vs. Manaea: He has almost no ceiling with his lack of power, but he does make a ton of contact (86%) and can steal a base.
Yuli Gurriel ($2,500) vs. Eflin: Gurriel is not a good hitter, but finding a guy in the middle of a lineup for $2,500 is too much to pass up on - especially because I don’t care much for the other options at 1B.
Michael Massey ($3,800) vs. Eflin: Massey led off against the righty yesterday, so I would imagine that would be the case again today, and the model will usually like a sub-$4K lead off man.
Lineup
Yesterday’s lineup cashed in the double ups thanks to the big Michael King game. I don’t feel nearly as confident about this one, but I don’t suspect anybody does. This is a tough slate, but here’s what I’ve come up with:
SP Fried $8,700 SP Musgrove $8,000 C Contreras $4,900 1B Gurriel $2,500 2B Massey $3,800 3B Vientos $4,400 SS Lindor $5,700 OF Nimmo $4,500 OF Chourio $4,400 OF Frelick $2,800
So we have nobody in the first game, so we’ll be playing catch up late, but that will be fun. We have our two value bats in the second game, and then all of our points will come late in the two National League games.
Player Props
All three bets yesterday were close, but an 0-3 is an 0-3. Today the model likes:
Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Hits Allowed
I like that one too. I think Lugo gets pretty deep into this game.
The other angles I’d like to take would be betting against the less capable SPs in elimination games. That would mean the unders on Hunter Brown, Zach Eflin, and Frankie Montas. I’d also like to go back to the over 1.5 total base on Francisco Lindor given how well he’s hit those fastballs from righties. I think Montas is probably overly pumped up in the sports books because of his recent production.
Let’s go - enjoy your second day of playoff baseball!
Slate Preview
Most Team Fantasy Point Projections
NYM (vs. Frankie Montas): 68.49 Projected Points
BAL (vs. Seth Lugo): 67.6 Projected Points
MIL (vs. Sean Manaea): 67.07 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Joe Musgrove): 63.59 Projected Points
HOU (vs. Tyler Holton): 62.28 Projected Points
Least Team Fantasy Point Projections
SD (vs. Max Fried): 57.39 Projected Points
DET (vs. Hunter Brown): 58.01 Projected Points
KC (vs. Zach Eflin): 60.97 Projected Points
HOU (vs. Tyler Holton): 62.28 Projected Points
ATL (vs. Joe Musgrove): 63.59 Projected Points
Team Projections vs. Season Averages
NYM: 68.49 Today, 64.96 Season Average
BAL: 67.6 Today, 65.11 Season Average
MIL: 67.07 Today, 65.28 Season Average
DET: 58.01 Today, 57.76 Season Average
KC: 60.97 Today, 64.75 Season Average
DFS Top Plays by Position
Pitchers - Raw Projections
Sean Manaea $8200 vs. MIL: 17.09 points
Hunter Brown $8300 vs. DET: 15.53 points
Joe Musgrove $8000 vs. ATL: 15.11 points
Max Fried $8700 vs. SD: 13.73 points
Frankie Montas $7200 vs. NYM: 13.62 points
Pitchers - Top Values
Sean Manaea $8200 vs. MIL: 17.09 points, 2.08 value
Joe Musgrove $8000 vs. ATL: 15.11 points, 1.89 value
Frankie Montas $7200 vs. NYM: 13.62 points, 1.89 value
Hunter Brown $8300 vs. DET: 15.53 points, 1.87 value
Zach Eflin $7500 vs. KC: 12.81 points, 1.71 value
Catchers
1. William Contreras ($4900) vs. Sean Manaea: 8.92 points, 1.31 score
2. Salvador Perez ($4200) vs. Zach Eflin: 7.24 points, 1.05 score
3. Gary Sanchez ($3600) vs. Sean Manaea: 6.74 points, 1.0 score
