DFS & Betting Game Previews - July 14th
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
Table of Contents
It is the second half! Welcome back to MLB Data Warehouse and our first game previews post of the rest of the season.
If you’re new here, most days of the week I put out these game-by-game previews that are generated automatically with full projections, top DFS plays, and best bets for each game.
On days with full night slates where I have the extra time (usually Mondays, Tuesdays, and Fridays), I put out some extra stuff including a full DFS slate breakdown and a list of my favorite bets for the day.
During the break, I did some checking on my walk and strikeout props and found that they have both been profitable this year when taking all of the bets with a bet value above 0.1, but the walk props have been extremely good. They have profited +12.6 units in just about 3 weeks of tracking (39 total bets). You can see the tracker here.
So we’re going to focus closely on walk props in the second half. If the success keeps up, it’ll be a no-brainer to become a paid sub here because the membership will pay for itself!
I typically give 2-3 games for free before the paywall, and then at the bottom of the post I get to the full DFS preview and I’ll give today’s best bets. Let’s get to going on that!
Game by Game Previews 7/14/2023
SD @ PHI
Projected Game Score:
SD 5.3 - PHI 4.96
SD 51.6% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.5
Projected Total: 10.26
2023 Pitcher Stats
Yu Darvish: 15 GS, 1415 Pitches, 25.1 K%, 7.6 BB%, 12.1 SwStr%, 47.6 Strike%, 35.9 Ball%, 44.4 GB%, 7 Brl%
Cristopher Sanchez: 5 GS, 371 Pitches, 22.2 K%, 4.0 BB%, 11.9 SwStr%, 48.2 Strike%, 32.1 Ball%, 56.2 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Yu Darvish (SD): 100 Pitches 6.15 IP, 6.0 H, 3.0 ER, 6.7 K, 1.8 BB, 17.17 FPts
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 78 Pitches 5.01 IP, 4.7 H, 2.5 ER, 4.4 K, 2.4 BB, 11.47 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Yu Darvish - 5.5 strikeouts
Cristopher Sanchez - 4.5 strikeouts
SD Hitter Projections
1. Ha-Seong Kim: 4.48 PA, 0.98 H, 1.52 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.17 SB, 8.47 FPts
2. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 4.44 PA, 1.06 H, 2.07 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.24 SB, 10.76 FPts
3. Juan Soto: 4.3 PA, 0.87 H, 1.54 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.06 SB, 9.26 FPts
4. Manny Machado: 4.16 PA, 0.98 H, 1.7 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.07 SB, 8.36 FPts
5. Xander Bogaerts: 4.08 PA, 0.98 H, 1.56 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.98 FPts
6. Gary Sanchez: 3.98 PA, 0.78 H, 1.5 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.04 FPts
7. Jake Cronenworth: 3.91 PA, 0.81 H, 1.29 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.49 FPts
8. Brandon Dixon: 3.55 PA, 0.7 H, 1.25 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.98 FPts
9. Trent Grisham: 3.48 PA, 0.65 H, 1.18 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.43 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.56 PA, 0.89 H, 2.0 TB, 0.3 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.36 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.39 PA, 1.05 H, 1.69 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.2 SB, 8.46 FPts
3. Nick Castellanos: 4.29 PA, 1.03 H, 1.74 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.76 FPts
4. Bryce Harper: 4.18 PA, 1.02 H, 1.81 TB, 0.17 HR, 0.1 SB, 9.1 FPts
5. J.T. Realmuto: 4.08 PA, 0.97 H, 1.73 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.13 SB, 8.27 FPts
6. Bryson Stott: 3.95 PA, 0.99 H, 1.52 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.1 SB, 7.05 FPts
7. Alec Bohm: 3.88 PA, 0.94 H, 1.42 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.17 FPts
8. Darick Hall: 3.71 PA, 0.84 H, 1.66 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.11 FPts
9. Brandon Marsh: 3.41 PA, 0.73 H, 1.18 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.7 FPts
Best Bets
Cristopher Sanchez PHI - Walks Over 1.5 (-135.0) - 0.111 value
Yu Darvish SD - Strikeouts Over 5.5 (-130.0) - 0.092 value
Brandon Dixon SD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-195.0) - 0.088 value
Gary Sanchez SD - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-165.0) - 0.057 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Game not on slate
SF @ PIT
Projected Game Score:
SF 4.62 - PIT 4.24
SF 52.1% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9.0
Projected Total: 8.86
2023 Pitcher Stats
Rich Hill: 18 GS, 1696 Pitches, 21.1 K%, 9.0 BB%, 8.7 SwStr%, 46.5 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%, 37.0 GB%, 11 Brl%
Ross Stripling: 7 GS, 720 Pitches, 18.9 K%, 6.1 BB%, 10.6 SwStr%, 45.6 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%, 46.3 GB%, 12 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Rich Hill (PIT): 97 Pitches 6.17 IP, 5.9 H, 3.0 ER, 5.4 K, 2.4 BB, 13.98 FPts
Ross Stripling (SF): 70 Pitches 4.3 IP, 4.0 H, 2.0 ER, 4.3 K, 1.3 BB, 11.91 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Rich Hill - 4.5 strikeouts
Ross Stripling - 3.5 strikeouts
SF Hitter Projections
1. Austin Slater: 4.18 PA, 0.98 H, 1.68 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.19 SB, 8.86 FPts
2. Wilmer Flores: 4.41 PA, 1.01 H, 1.71 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.0 SB, 7.81 FPts
3. LaMonte Wade Jr.: 4.06 PA, 0.86 H, 1.5 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.58 FPts
4. J.D. Davis: 4.1 PA, 0.92 H, 1.54 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.43 FPts
5. Patrick Bailey: 4.01 PA, 0.88 H, 1.6 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.34 FPts
6. Michael Conforto: 3.91 PA, 0.83 H, 1.42 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.82 FPts
7. Luis Matos: 3.86 PA, 1.0 H, 1.6 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.07 SB, 7.39 FPts
8. Casey Schmitt: 3.67 PA, 0.83 H, 1.33 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 5.7 FPts
9. Brandon Crawford: 3.39 PA, 0.71 H, 1.12 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.04 SB, 5.42 FPts
PIT Hitter Projections
1. Jack Suwinski: 4.37 PA, 0.95 H, 2.01 TB, 0.28 HR, 0.06 SB, 9.02 FPts
2. Bryan Reynolds: 4.3 PA, 1.1 H, 1.94 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.06 SB, 8.65 FPts
3. Henry Davis: 4.26 PA, 0.95 H, 1.68 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.06 SB, 7.89 FPts
4. Carlos Santana: 4.16 PA, 0.9 H, 1.54 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.21 FPts
5. Ji-Man Choi: 3.91 PA, 0.86 H, 1.47 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.78 FPts
6. Jared Triolo: 3.95 PA, 0.8 H, 1.17 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.09 SB, 5.9 FPts
7. Tucupita Marcano: 3.72 PA, 0.85 H, 1.34 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.94 FPts
8. Nick Gonzales: 3.7 PA, 0.77 H, 1.36 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.0 FPts
9. Austin Hedges: 3.24 PA, 0.61 H, 0.87 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.01 SB, 3.83 FPts
Best Bets
Jared Triolo PIT - Total Bases Under 1.5 (-155.0) - 0.138 value
Rich Hill PIT - Walks Over 1.5 (-155.0) - 0.092 value
Ross Stripling SF - Strikeouts Over 3.5 (-115.0) - 0.084 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Jack Suwinski (PIT) OF $3800: 9.02 Proj, 1.31 Score
Austin Slater (SF) OF $3400: 8.86 Proj, 1.27 Score
Ji-Man Choi (PIT) 1B $2400: 6.78 Proj, 1.15 Score
Henry Davis (PIT) OF $2600: 7.89 Proj, 1.13 Score
Wilmer Flores (SF) 1B/3B $3200: 7.81 Proj, 1.13 Score
MIA @ BAL
Projected Game Score:
BAL 4.34 - MIA 4.2
BAL 50.9% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8.5
Projected Total: 8.54
2023 Pitcher Stats
Sandy Alcantara: 18 GS, 1695 Pitches, 19.7 K%, 6.9 BB%, 13.8 SwStr%, 47.9 Strike%, 31.7 Ball%, 49.9 GB%, 6 Brl%
Dean Kremer: 18 GS, 1648 Pitches, 22.0 K%, 6.0 BB%, 11.7 SwStr%, 45.3 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%, 35.0 GB%, 11 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 95 Pitches 5.58 IP, 5.9 H, 2.8 ER, 4.7 K, 2.0 BB, 12.28 FPts
Dean Kremer (BAL): 94 Pitches 5.49 IP, 6.1 H, 2.7 ER, 4.6 K, 1.4 BB, 12.18 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Sandy Alcantara - 4.5 strikeouts
Dean Kremer - 4.5 strikeouts
MIA Hitter Projections
1. Luis Arraez: 4.4 PA, 1.35 H, 1.88 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.04 SB, 8.19 FPts
2. Jorge Soler: 4.34 PA, 0.95 H, 1.93 TB, 0.25 HR, 0.01 SB, 8.34 FPts
3. Bryan De La Cruz: 4.2 PA, 1.06 H, 1.74 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.46 FPts
4. Jesus Sanchez: 3.99 PA, 0.94 H, 1.71 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.46 FPts
5. Garrett Cooper: 3.98 PA, 0.93 H, 1.56 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.84 FPts
6. Jean Segura: 3.91 PA, 0.96 H, 1.35 TB, 0.07 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.35 FPts
7. Joey Wendle: 3.74 PA, 0.93 H, 1.33 TB, 0.06 HR, 0.1 SB, 6.08 FPts
8. Jacob Stallings: 3.58 PA, 0.78 H, 1.19 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.0 SB, 5.37 FPts
9. Dane Myers: 3.45 PA, 0.77 H, 1.28 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.95 FPts
BAL Hitter Projections
1. Gunnar Henderson: 4.28 PA, 0.92 H, 1.57 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.09 SB, 7.85 FPts
2. Adley Rutschman: 4.24 PA, 0.97 H, 1.56 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.74 FPts
3. Anthony Santander: 4.16 PA, 0.94 H, 1.72 TB, 0.19 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.68 FPts
4. Ryan O'Hearn: 3.83 PA, 0.95 H, 1.52 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.01 SB, 6.55 FPts
5. Austin Hays: 3.89 PA, 0.94 H, 1.51 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.04 SB, 6.63 FPts
6. Cedric Mullins II: 3.85 PA, 0.9 H, 1.4 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.22 SB, 7.55 FPts
7. Colton Cowser: 3.73 PA, 0.86 H, 1.31 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.06 SB, 6.9 FPts
8. Jordan Westburg: 3.6 PA, 0.84 H, 1.41 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.39 FPts
9. Adam Frazier: 3.28 PA, 0.85 H, 1.18 TB, 0.05 HR, 0.07 SB, 5.68 FPts
Best Bets
Dean Kremer BAL - Strikeouts Under 4.5 (+115.0) - 0.054 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) OF $2800: 7.46 Proj, 1.19 Score
Jorge Soler (MIA) OF $4800: 8.34 Proj, 1.09 Score
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) OF $3800: 7.46 Proj, 1.05 Score
Garrett Cooper (MIA) 1B $3200: 6.84 Proj, 1.0 Score
Luis Arraez (MIA) 2B $4900: 8.19 Proj, 0.99 Score
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