NFL Weekly Notes - Week Three
A weekly statistical summary of the most recent NFL week, brought to you every Monday and updated on Tuesday with the MNF game data.
I was driving all afternoon yesterday and then was glued to the fantasy baseball championship when I got home, so I need to read these notes more than anybody - I have no idea what happened yesterday!
Once we get to the game-by-game part, I’m going to add in some notes for each game based on my observations. Let’s have at it!
Quick Links
Week 3 Summary
These posts are free, and I’ve been having a lot of fun writing them, however they do take away from other things I do, and I am not above asking for tips. So if you’re so inclined, you can send a tip through Venmo here:
The story of the week was clearly this 70-burger the Dolphins posted. On the main dashboard you’ll find “EPA/Play” which is estimated points added per play. How that works is it takes each play run and see how that play changed the team’s expected point total, and then sums it up all at the end (and in this case, then divides it by total plays run).
To show you crazy that Dolphins game was, here’s the top 10 offenses in EPA yesterday.
MIA .458
ARI .197
HOU .184
KC .173
SEA .157
BUF .153
CLE .140
SF .135
DAL .050
LAC .047
The bottom 5 were WAS (-.416), ATL (-.271), CHI (-.263), NYJ (-.224), and TEN (-.202).
Team Pass Rate Over Expectation
The Chargers clearly just give up on the run without Austin Ekeler in the lineup. They chucked it 79% of the time yesterday on an expected 61% rate. These last two games without Ekeler they have gone 74% pass with a league-high 12% pass rate over expectation.
The five most run-heavy teams in the league after 3 (or 2) games by Pass Rate OE:
ATL -11.6
TEN -10.4%
ARI -9.5%
NYJ -7.8%
DAL -7.4%
DET -7.4%
Now back to just week three stuff:
Top 5 Teams
LAC: 63 Plays, 77.8% Pass%, 62.9% xPass%, 14.9% Pass% OE
WAS: 51 Plays, 74.5% Pass%, 70.5% xPass%, 4.0% Pass% OE
NYG: 47 Plays, 76.6% Pass%, 75.6% xPass%, 1.0% Pass% OE
SEA: 68 Plays, 57.4% Pass%, 57.6% xPass%, -0.2% Pass% OE
NOR: 60 Plays, 63.3% Pass%, 65.3% xPass%, -2.0% Pass% OE
Bottom 5 Teams
NWE: 69 Plays, 42.0% Pass%, 64.7% xPass%, -22.7% Pass% OE
DAL: 75 Plays, 56.0% Pass%, 77.5% xPass%, -21.5% Pass% OE
CHI: 51 Plays, 49.0% Pass%, 68.1% xPass%, -19.1% Pass% OE
TEN: 45 Plays, 66.7% Pass%, 85.5% xPass%, -18.8% Pass% OE
ARI: 53 Plays, 45.3% Pass%, 63.7% xPass%, -18.4% Pass% OE
Target Share Leaders
Davante Adams (LVR), 20 Targets, 44.4% Tgt Share
Keenan Allen (LAC), 20 Targets, 41.7% Tgt Share
Tyreek Hill (MIA), 11 Targets, 39.3% Tgt Share
Stefon Diggs (BUF), 12 Targets, 38.7% Tgt Share
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), 12 Targets, 38.7% Tgt Share
Marquise Brown (ARI), 8 Targets, 36.4% Tgt Share
Sam LaPorta (DET), 11 Targets, 35.5% Tgt Share
Deebo Samuel (SFO), 12 Targets, 35.3% Tgt Share
Zay Flowers (BAL), 10 Targets, 33.3% Tgt Share
Chris Olave (NOR), 11 Targets, 32.4% Tgt Share
Some pretty familiar names at the top here. Adams, Allen, Hill, and Diggs have been doing this for a long time, and they all got open a bunch this weekend. Davante Adams has 37 target this year to lead the team, second place there is Jakobi Meyers with 22, and then no other wide receiver even has four targets.
The Chargers wide receiver room is going to be an interesting one to monitor with Mike Williams hurt now. Keenan Allen now has a team-high 39, but Williams isn’t too far behind at 26. Joshua Palmer has been the WR3 so far, but there’s this rookie Quentin Johnston behind him - so maybe they’ll elevate him over the veteran (and less talented, I presume?) as we move forward.
Air Yards - Totals
Davante Adams (LVR), 240 Air Yards, 12.0 ADoT
D.J. Chark (CAR), 188 Air Yards, 17.1 ADoT
Justin Jefferson (MIN), 162 Air Yards, 12.5 ADoT
Alec Pierce (IND), 161 Air Yards, 23.0 ADoT
Romeo Doubs (GNB), 157 Air Yards, 13.1 ADoT
Jakobi Meyers (LVR), 154 Air Yards, 12.8 ADoT
Amari Cooper (CLE), 145 Air Yards, 18.1 ADoT
Adam Thielen (CAR), 138 Air Yards, 9.9 ADoT
Nathaniel Dell (HOU), 136 Air Yards, 19.4 ADoT
DJ Moore (CHI), 134 Air Yards, 22.3 ADoT
ADoT Leaders - 5 Target Minimum
Marvin Mims (DEN), 5 Tgt, 127 Air Yards, 25.4 ADoT
Alec Pierce (IND), 7 Tgt, 161 Air Yards, 23.0 ADoT
DJ Moore (CHI), 6 Tgt, 134 Air Yards, 22.3 ADoT
Treylon Burks (TEN), 6 Tgt, 126 Air Yards, 21.0 ADoT
Nathaniel Dell (HOU), 7 Tgt, 136 Air Yards, 19.4 ADoT
Amari Cooper (CLE), 8 Tgt, 145 Air Yards, 18.1 ADoT
Jerry Jeudy (DEN), 7 Tgt, 122 Air Yards, 17.4 ADoT
D.J. Chark (CAR), 11 Tgt, 188 Air Yards, 17.1 ADoT
Kalif Raymond (DET), 6 Tgt, 96 Air Yards, 16.0 ADoT
Calvin Austin (PIT), 6 Tgt, 95 Air Yards, 15.8 ADoT
Touch Leaders
Zack Moss (IND), 30 Rushes, 2 Rec, 32 Touches
Tony Pollard (DAL), 23 Rushes, 3 Rec, 26 Touches
Alexander Mattison (MIN), 20 Rushes, 5 Rec, 25 Touches
Travis Etienne (JAX), 19 Rushes, 4 Rec, 23 Touches
Christian McCaffrey (SFO), 18 Rushes, 5 Rec, 23 Touches
Devon Achane (MIA), 18 Rushes, 4 Rec, 22 Touches
Kenneth Walker (SEA), 18 Rushes, 3 Rec, 21 Touches
Josh Jacobs (LVR), 17 Rushes, 3 Rec, 20 Touches
Rhamondre Stevenson (NWE), 19 Rushes, 1 Rec, 20 Touches
Raheem Mostert (MIA), 13 Rushes, 7 Rec, 20 Touches
Game-by-Game Breakdowns
NYG vs. SFO
First game we have was Thursday Night, so it’s already been digested. I don’t really have much to say here other than Mitchell got the elevated work he was rumored to get, and that yes - Deebo & Kittle just dominate the offense with Aiyuk on the shelf. That’ll probably be true if you mix it up as well, meaning that I would think Aiyuk + Kittle would get a ton of work if Deebo was ever out, and then you can do that with the other combinations as well.
Tough game for the Giants there without Barkley, so it’s kinda hard to judge them on that. Any time you see an offense without their best player against a tough defense you’re probably not really going to be able to get a ton of insight out of the game - so let’s just move past this one.
NYG: 47 Plays, 76.6% Pass%, 75.6% xPass%, 1.0% Pass% OE
SFO: 75 Plays, 52.0% Pass%, 58.3% xPass%, -6.3% Pass% OE
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
Christian McCaffrey (SFO), 18 Rushes, 5 Rec, 23 Touches, 35.9% Touch Shr
Elijah Mitchell (SFO), 11 Rushes, 3 Rec, 14 Touches, 21.9% Touch Shr
Matt Breida (NYG), 4 Rushes, 3 Rec, 7 Touches, 21.2% Touch Shr
Parris Campbell (NYG), 0 Rushes, 6 Rec, 6 Touches, 18.2% Touch Shr
Gary Brightwell (NYG), 4 Rushes, 2 Rec, 6 Touches, 18.2% Touch Shr
Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG), 0 Rushes, 4 Rec, 4 Touches, 12.1% Touch Shr
Target Share Leaders
Deebo Samuel (SFO), 12 Tgts, 35.3 Tgt%
George Kittle (SFO), 9 Tgts, 26.5 Tgt%
Darren Waller (NYG), 7 Tgts, 21.9 Tgt%
Parris Campbell (NYG), 6 Tgts, 18.8 Tgt%
Darius Slayton (NYG), 6 Tgts, 18.8 Tgt%
Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG), 5 Tgts, 15.6 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
Deebo Samuel (SFO), 70 Air Yds, 38.5 Air Yd%
George Kittle (SFO), 68 Air Yds, 37.4 Air Yd%
Darius Slayton (NYG), 72 Air Yds, 35.8 Air Yd%
Darren Waller (NYG), 68 Air Yds, 33.8 Air Yd%
Ronnie Bell (SFO), 23 Air Yds, 12.6 Air Yd%
Jauan Jennings (SFO), 21 Air Yds, 11.5 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
Christian McCaffrey (SFO), 18 Rushes, 46.2 Rush%
Gary Brightwell (NYG), 4 Rushes, 36.4 Rush%
Matt Breida (NYG), 4 Rushes, 36.4 Rush%
Elijah Mitchell (SFO), 11 Rushes, 28.2 Rush%
Daniel Jones (NYG), 2 Rushes, 18.2 Rush%
Brock Purdy (SFO), 4 Rushes, 10.3 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Deebo Samuel (SFO), 3 RZ Tgts, 42.9 RZ Tgt%
Christian McCaffrey (SFO), 1 RZ Tgts, 14.3 RZ Tgt%
Elijah Mitchell (SFO), 1 RZ Tgts, 14.3 RZ Tgt%
George Kittle (SFO), 1 RZ Tgts, 14.3 RZ Tgt%
Ronnie Bell (SFO), 1 RZ Tgts, 14.3 RZ Tgt%
Goal Line (inside the 5) Carries
Christian McCaffrey (SFO), 1 GL Carries, 100.0 GL Carry%
ATL vs. DET
We had the league’s most boring team against one of the most fun-to-watch teams. Without David Montgomgery, it was 17 carries for Jahmyr Gibbs, but only two targets which is not what you want to see from that guy. The other RBs combined for eight carries, so it was pretty much Gibbs backfield. They have a Thursday game this week, making it tougher for Montgomery to get back - so we’ll probably see ~20 touches for Gibbs again coming up.
Bijan Robinson (14 carries) gave up nine carries to Tyler Allgeier, but out-targeted him 6 to 3. It wasn’t a good game for Robinson (60 total scoreless yards), and he could be a disappointing first round pick just because that offense doesn’t rune enough plays or score enough touchdowns. The Falcons target leaders for the year:
Pitts (17), Robinson (17), London (15), Hollins (14), J Smith (14), Allgeier (5)
Always interesting for fantasy when a tight end is the main pass game threat, but in this case I don’t think you’re happy to be starting any of these guys.
ATL: 65 Plays, 69.2% Pass%, 80.5% xPass%, -11.3% Pass% OE
DET: 61 Plays, 54.1% Pass%, 64.2% xPass%, -10.1% Pass% OE
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
Bijan Robinson (ATL), 10 Rushes, 4 Rec, 14 Touches, 34.1% Touch Shr
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), 17 Rushes, 1 Rec, 18 Touches, 34.0% Touch Shr
Tyler Allgeier (ATL), 7 Rushes, 2 Rec, 9 Touches, 22.0% Touch Shr
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), 1 Rushes, 9 Rec, 10 Touches, 18.9% Touch Shr
Sam LaPorta (DET), 0 Rushes, 8 Rec, 8 Touches, 15.1% Touch Shr
Kyle Pitts (ATL), 1 Rushes, 5 Rec, 6 Touches, 14.6% Touch Shr
Target Share Leaders
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), 12 Tgts, 38.7 Tgt%
Sam LaPorta (DET), 11 Tgts, 35.5 Tgt%
Kyle Pitts (ATL), 9 Tgts, 23.7 Tgt%
Jonnu Smith (ATL), 8 Tgts, 21.1 Tgt%
Kalif Raymond (DET), 6 Tgts, 19.4 Tgt%
Drake London (ATL), 6 Tgts, 15.8 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), 101 Air Yds, 37.1 Air Yd%
Kyle Pitts (ATL), 107 Air Yds, 36.8 Air Yd%
Kalif Raymond (DET), 96 Air Yds, 35.3 Air Yd%
Sam LaPorta (DET), 87 Air Yds, 32.0 Air Yd%
Mack Hollins (ATL), 67 Air Yds, 23.0 Air Yd%
Jonnu Smith (ATL), 53 Air Yds, 18.2 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), 17 Rushes, 54.8 Rush%
Bijan Robinson (ATL), 10 Rushes, 50.0 Rush%
Tyler Allgeier (ATL), 7 Rushes, 35.0 Rush%
Jared Goff (DET), 5 Rushes, 16.1 Rush%
Craig Reynolds (DET), 4 Rushes, 12.9 Rush%
Desmond Ridder (ATL), 2 Rushes, 10.0 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET), 2 RZ Tgts, 100.0 RZ Tgt%
Drake London (ATL), 2 RZ Tgts, 66.7 RZ Tgt%
Kyle Pitts (ATL), 1 RZ Tgts, 33.3 RZ Tgt%
Goal Line (inside the 5) Carries
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), 1 GL Carries, 50.0 GL Carry%
Jared Goff (DET), 1 GL Carries, 50.0 GL Carry%
TEN vs. CLE
The Titans are pretty bad, apparently. They scored three points in this one and Ryan Tannehill now has a 59% completion percent on the year with a 1:3 TD:INT ratio. I don’t know much, but I know that’s bad!
Any time the Titans are getting crushed, it’s horrible news for Derrick Henry - and that’s what we saw yesterday with his 11-20-0 line with zero targets or catches. Yikes!
As for the Browns, Jerome Ford ran it only 10 times while Pierre Strong Jr. had six carries and Kareem Hunt added five of his own. That’s a big time negative point for Ford owners (I personally drive a Ford Escape!), but he did add a receiving touchdown on his three targets. It would appear that he’s a long, long way from Nick Chubb by talent and by role. And hey, Amari Cooper is good with Deshaun Watson under center. His game log:
Week 1: 3-37-0 (7 targets)
Week 2: 7-90-0 (10 targets)
Week 3: 7-116-1 (8 targets)Maybe that’s not a WR1 in fantasy, but it’s a strong WR2 I would say.
CLE: 67 Plays, 53.7% Pass%, 56.6% xPass%, -2.9% Pass% OE
TEN: 45 Plays, 66.7% Pass%, 85.5% xPass%, -18.8% Pass% OE
Touches & Touch Share Leaders
Derrick Henry (TEN), 11 Rushes, 0 Rec, 11 Touches, 39.3% Touch Shr
Tyjae Spears (TEN), 4 Rushes, 4 Rec, 8 Touches, 28.6% Touch Shr
Elijah Moore (CLE), 3 Rushes, 9 Rec, 12 Touches, 20.7% Touch Shr
Jerome Ford (CLE), 10 Rushes, 2 Rec, 12 Touches, 20.7% Touch Shr
Amari Cooper (CLE), 0 Rushes, 7 Rec, 7 Touches, 12.1% Touch Shr
Kareem Hunt (CLE), 5 Rushes, 2 Rec, 7 Touches, 12.1% Touch Shr
Target Share Leaders
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), 7 Tgts, 29.2 Tgt%
Elijah Moore (CLE), 9 Tgts, 29.0 Tgt%
Amari Cooper (CLE), 8 Tgts, 25.8 Tgt%
Treylon Burks (TEN), 6 Tgts, 25.0 Tgt%
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN), 4 Tgts, 16.7 Tgt%
Tyjae Spears (TEN), 4 Tgts, 16.7 Tgt%
Air Yards Share Leaders
Amari Cooper (CLE), 145 Air Yds, 53.3 Air Yd%
Treylon Burks (TEN), 126 Air Yds, 49.6 Air Yd%
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), 103 Air Yds, 40.6 Air Yd%
Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE), 53 Air Yds, 19.5 Air Yd%
Chris Moore (TEN), 32 Air Yds, 12.6 Air Yd%
Jerome Ford (CLE), 18 Air Yds, 6.6 Air Yd%
Rush Share Leaders
Derrick Henry (TEN), 11 Rushes, 73.3 Rush%
Jerome Ford (CLE), 10 Rushes, 32.3 Rush%
Tyjae Spears (TEN), 4 Rushes, 26.7 Rush%
Pierre Strong Jr. (CLE), 6 Rushes, 19.4 Rush%
Kareem Hunt (CLE), 5 Rushes, 16.1 Rush%
Deshaun Watson (CLE), 4 Rushes, 12.9 Rush%
Red Zone Targets
Jerome Ford (CLE), 1 RZ Tgts, 100.0 RZ Tgt%
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN), 1 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
Tyjae Spears (TEN), 1 RZ Tgts, 50.0 RZ Tgt%
Goal Line (inside the 5) Carries
Jerome Ford (CLE), 1 GL Carries, 100.0 GL Carry%
Become a paid subscriber today to get the rest of this post, as well as everything else offered here for NFL and MLB. That includes, but is not limited to
Weekly NFL Projections
NFL Statistics Tableau Dashboard (2022 version free here)
Read the about page here for more information about the full MLB product.