2023 Second Base Preview
We are on to second base! These previews are helping me and getting me pumped to do another draft! Here’s what we’ve done so far if you’ve missed it:
The next position is second base, which is tough once again this year.
Landscape
What we have:
No first-rounders
Four in the first three rounds
A large group in tiers 3-4
Non-terrible late round fliers
Tier 1
Jose Altuve
Marcus Semien
I almost put the first four all in tier one, but Altuve and Semien are a lot safer than the next two names, so they stand out at the top.
Altuve had a sweet season last year with a 105-29-60-18-.299 line, retro Altuve there. I’m not sure if the 18 steals is going to repeat, but I suppose it’s likely that it does (he stole just 5 in 2021, but with the new rules yadda-yadda). There aren’t signs of age, so he can be drafted as the first second baseman off the board yet again.
As for Semien, he went .248/.304/.429 after hitting just .199/.266./274 in the first two months. That means from June 1st onward, he hit .268/.319/.490 with 80 R, 25 HR, 66 RBI, 19 SB.
I might take him ahead of Altuve because the steals feel safer - but it’s a pretty even race.
Tier 2
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Ozzie Albies
These two have tier-one upside, and I would imagine both put up that kind of production if they just stay healthy.
Jazz can be a 30-30 guy, but he had a hamstring issue AND a back issue last year, which is really worrisome. He missed most of the season, but has had a lot of time to heal so it will be interesting to see how he comes out in spring. The upside is immense.
Albies is just one year removed from a 30-20 season, but he got to just 269 PAs last year between different injuries and hit a poor .247/.294/.409 with eight homers and three steals in that time. We can forgive the bad performance around the injuries, but it is a little bit extra concerning given that he wasn’t even doing well before the injuries. The other concern is that he ends up in the bottom third of the lineup against righties - that would certainly dock him a bunch of runs and RBI. Anyways, he’s a good stride ahead of the next tier - so that’s your clear top four.
Tier 3
Tommy Edman
Andres Gimenez
This is a bit of a “steals tier”,
You can see the projections don’t believe much in Gimenez’s power, but these are two of the safest steals sources in the league, and neither should hit for a bad batting average. They both limit strikeouts well, and in Gimenez’s case, he should hit in the two-hole which should lead to some runs ahead of Ramirez. I much prefer Gimenez here, but there is something to be said for Edman’s security.
Tier 4
Gleyber Torres
Max Muncy
Jorge Polanco
Brandon Lowe
This is where things start thinning out, but these are still easily starters in fantasy leagues.
There are a lot of homers here, assuming these guys stay healthy - and there are even some steals as you can see there with Torres and Polanco. Sixteen steals from Torres seems aggressive, but he did steal 14 in 2021 and 10 more last year, so it’s in the range there with the new rules.
I am the highest of the projection systems on Polanco’s home run output. I just think he’s a good hitter that can do a little bit of everything - so I’m very much into him.
I also like Muncy and Lowe for the power at where they go - but of course, there’s a lot of risk with those two - especially Lowe. Anyways, I’m almost always drafting someone in this tier, and Muncy gives you that sweet, sweet 2B/3B eligibility which will be huge this year.
Tier 5
Vaughn Grissom
Thairo Estrada
Jonathan India
Grissom is destined for the #9 spot in the lineup, but he did hit a nice .291/.348/.440 with five homers, five steals, and a 22% K% in 156 PAs last year. That was some pretty good production - but he doesn’t hit the ball all that hard and it is pretty tough to put up stats from the 9 hole. With an injury or two, he could end up at the top of the lineup, so there’s upside there for sure.
Estrada is a good steals source and a non-awful home runs source, but there might be some playing time concerns there. As for India, who knows? He was good as a rookie but then had a disastrous 2022, so we just don’t know who the guy really is. You would think he’d be a lead-off hitter with steals in Great American Ballpark for most/all of the year - and that should turn into a decent season at worst. I’m fine with him as an emergency option or an upside backup 2B.
Tier 6
Jeff McNeil
Whit Merrifield
Josh Rojas
Ketel Marte
Luis Arraez
We lose most of the power here, but there’s a lot of batting average and some steals in this tier.
Merrifield and Rojas might not be everyday players. McNeil, Marte, and Arraez just really lack the fantasy ability since they don’t hit many homers or steal many bases. My favorite of the bunch is Marte, who seemed to really suffer last year because of a hamstring issue. If that’s fully healthy, he could really blow past this ADP with his ability to hit the ball very hard (a few extra degrees of launch angle and he turns into a 20+ homer guy), and he has been known to steal some bags in the past.
By this time, you definitely want to have a second baseman and probably two.
Tier 7
Nick Gordon
Luis Garcia
Gavin Lux
DJ LeMahieu
Jake Cronenworth
Bryson Stott
Jean Segura
Luis Urias
Kolten Wong
Christopher Morel
Brendan Rodgers
Brendan Donovan
Ramon Urias
Now we have a big clump of guys that do different things. The guys with locked-in playing time:
Garcia
Cronenworth
Urias
Rodgers
The guys that I think have some homer/steal upside:
Gordon
Garcia
Morel
Gordon is one of my favorite picks of the year, but that’s dependent on him being a starter - which he barely is right now. I wrote him up as a breakout hitter this year, so you can read more about that here to see why I’m into it.
Garcia hits the ball hard and limits the strikeouts (although he does that mostly just by swinging at everything). There’s no guarantee of anything for him, but he swings the bat hard and steals some bags - so he’s certainly more interesting than the other names down here.
As for Morel, he did have a high barrel rate last year and has a ton of sprint speed, but he strikes out A TON. I’m projecting him for an 11% Brl% and a 35% K% - which just isn’t going to work. He’ll need to reduce the K% substantially to stay in the lineup.
Tier 8
Nolan Gorman
Chris Taylor
Jon Berti
Trevor Story
Luis Rengifo
Rodolfo Castro
Jonathan Aranda
Taylor, Berti, Rengifo, Castro, and Aranda are starters out of the gate, but none of these guys are holding on tightly to playing time. Story might not play at all, so I’m not touching him unless it’s like a super late-round pick where I can immediately push him to IL.
Aranda is a pretty appealing super-late-round pick as a young guy who can at least make contact and has some upside for where he goes. Gorman and Berti are the extremes here, with Gorman actually being of the game’s better power hitters but doing nothing else - and you know about Berti.
General Strategy
I really would like to take a shot on Chisholm. If he’s healthy, I do think he’s a 30-30 guy, and that’s not usually something you can find in the fourth round or beyond. If it’s the third round and Altuve or Semien are there, I’ll consider it.
I kind of just like to wait on it though and take Gimenez for the steals, or wait even further and take one of that Muncy/Polanco/Torres/Lowe tier. If it’s Muncy or Lowe, however, I want to have another 2B before too long out of concerns about the injuries.
There you have it, back next time with shortstops!