2024 Team Previews: Baltimore Orioles
Going through all 30 teams, looking back at 2023 and ahead to the 2024 season through a fantasy baseball lens.
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Orioles Intro
We must start with this picture of me in Camden Yards back in 2009.
It was the summer after graduating high school, so three friends of mine took the trip to DC and Baltimore to see two games. I spent probably half the money I had at that point on that shirt and hat. I don’t remember what happened at the Orioles game. What I do remember from that trip was that Michael Jackson died while we were at the Nationals game and John Smoltz pitched in that game. And I think Jordan Zimmermann pitched as well.
Let’s check to see if I’m right. We will google Michael Jackson’s date of death
And then we’ll see what happened to the Nationals on June 25, 2009.
Look at that - NAILED IT.
I would imagine it was the 26th or 27th we went to the Orioles game. But again, all I remember is that Nick Markakis was the guy for them, because that’s the shersey I bought. Looking at it, I bet it was the 27th. In that game they beat the Nationals (I do remember seeing the Nationals twice…) 6-3 on the back of homers from Gregg Zaun, Nolan Reimold, and everybody’s favorite tweeter - Aubrey Huff himself! Gotta freaking love baseball, don’t you?
I even searched Twitter to see if I had any ill tweets from that trip, but it looks like I took it easy, my only tweets that week were about Ian Snell. Classic teenage Jon.
And now I realize that I couldn’t have possibly tweeted from the games on the trip, because this was before you could even do that! I was probably still rocking one of these bad boys:
You could read a freakin’ text message RIGHT ON THAT FRONT SCREEN. It was unreal. I did eventually upgrade to the cutting edge LG enV touch and ran that thing out until 2011 or something when I finally and forever joined the iPhone crowd. Amazing memories growing up as the cell phone technology basically went through its full life cycle. We’ve peaked now.
I can’t imagine being a kid growing up with a smart phone for your whole life. You missed out on so much, and also - shame on your parents for giving you a smart phone.
Man I love talking about myself. And that’s good, because I don’t really care much about the Baltimore Orioles. I have no idea why, they seem like a team I should like, but I don’t. They won like 119 games last year despite not even being that good. If you’re mad right now (wHat do You MeAn THey WeRen’T ThaT goOOodD!?), save it bro.
Recycling this from the Rockies preview:
They were fifth in baseball in run differential and second in wins (101 wins to be exactly, not 119). So that’s an over-performance, and nobody likes over-performers. Get in line where you should be!
Man I just absolutely kill myself with these intros. I think I’m so funny. I sit here with this grin on my face that you’d see from like a 1997 9 year old boy. It’s been a fun ride. Only two more team previews to go though, so let’s wrap ‘em up!
Hitters
Gunnar Henderson
Age: 22
Pos: 3B/SS
The Orioles have had three straight overall #1 prospects with Rutschman, Henderson, and now Holliday. The first two have officially been HITS, as Henderson had his breakout season last year after struggling a bit in his first run at in late 2022.
622 PA, 100 R, 28 HR, 82 RBI, 10 SB, .255/.325/.489, .814 OPS
Good numbers all around. The K% was under 26% and he posted a good Brl% of 11.4%.
Like a lot of rookies, he came up hitting a lot of balls on the ground.
From 2022 through May 2023, he had a 51% GB%. After June 2023 he went for a 47% mark, so that was an improvement, and some more homers followed.
What we didn’t see a ton of were the steals. He stole 23 bases between the minors and Majors in 2022, but that dropped to just 10 last year. He is fast, so I would expect more steals in the future. But this isn’t a Corbin Carroll-type young base-stealer.
Everything is extremely impressive, and we can’t forget that we’re talking about a 22-year-old. There’s 40-bomb, 20-steal upside for Henderson with great production everywhere else. He profiles for a decent to good batting average as well.
The ADP is around 30, so he’s a third-round choice. That seems perfectly acceptable to me, and I won’t be surprised at all for him to be a first or second-round pick next year.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Rafael Devers, Manny Machado
JA: 625 PA, 86 R, 26 HR, 80 RBI, 12 SB, .261/.339/.470, .808 OPS
BatX: 617 PA, 86 R, 26 HR, 80 RBI, 12 SB, .261/.339/.470, .808 OPS
Steamer: 642 PA, 92 R, 27 HR, 79 RBI, 12 SB, .261/.341/.478, .819 OPS
Adley Rutschman
Age: 26
Pos: C
The top catcher in the fantasy game this year by ADP is Rutschman. He officially had the breakout season at the plate, putting up a very impressive line.
687 PA, 84 R, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 1 SB, .277/.374/.435, .809 OPS
That’s a huge OBP, and a really impressive 15% K% and 14% BB%.
But to me he’s a much better real-life player than fantasy. The 164 R+RBI is great from a catcher, don’t get me wrong, but just 20 homers and a lone steal? And he played nearly everyday, so we can’t say there’s playing time based upside here either.
We have to keep in mind the position context here. Twenty homers is quite good from your catcher slot, but he was not a game-changer in roto last year, not even a little bit.
He’s a better contact hitter than a power hitter, but he puts enough balls in the air to get there in homers.
It’s all just kind of middling stuff when we’re talking about his power swing. Not to say there isn’t time to add on to that, but to me he’s not a real 30-homer threat this season.
Things are different if you’re in an OBP league. He’s one of the best in the league at any position at getting on base. He’s a points league stud as well, so he should be taken #1 clearly in those leagues, but for standard roto he’s not my #1 catcher.
Since the catcher position is deep this year, you won’t see me drafting Rutschman, but that’s much more because of the scoring of the game rather than anything about him as a player.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: William Contreras, J.T. Realmuto
JA: 613 PA, 86 R, 19 HR, 69 RBI, 2 SB, .269/.369/.443, .813 OPS
BatX: 603 PA, 77 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, .272/.366/.438, .804 OPS
Anthony Santander
Age: 29
Pos: OF
The O’s veteran outfielder has hit 51 homers over the last two years, and still doesn’t get much love in the fantasy game. Maybe it’s the .240-.250 batting average and the very few steals, but this guy is a solid source of pop. The improvements in Baltimore pushed him to 95 RBI and 81 runs scored, so it was a very productive season for Santander once again.
For a guy that’s hit that many homers, he hasn’t crushed the ball by any means. The barrel rate was just over 10% last year and he has a middling .330 xwOBA over the last two years.
He is one of these guys who gets to the good home run count by just putting balls in the air at a very high rate. He doesn’t strike out much (19% and 23% in the last two years) and rarely hits ground balls.
Unlike most of the rest of this roster, Santander will soon to 30, so we’re past the breakout age range.
But if you’re in the mid-rounds of your draft in need of a HR+RBI source and/or a solid outfield contributor, he’s a nice pickup.
There are no holes in the game where you think the wheels could completely fall off this year, just don’t draft him if you’re already in need of batting average or stolen bases.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Nick Castellanos, Teoscar Hernandez
JA: 631 PA, 82 R, 28 HR, 90 RBI, 6 SB, .247/.320/.453, .773 OPS
BatX: 618 PA, 76 R, 30 HR, 86 RBI, 2 ,SB .243/.312/.460, .772 OPS
Cedric Mullins
Age: 29
Pos: OF
So all of the Orioles’ old guys are in the outfield, got it.
Mullins has not been able to repeat that big-time 30-30 season back in 2021, and 2023 was a pretty big disappointment overall.
455 PA, 51 R, 15 HR, 74 RBI, 19 SB, .233/.305/.416, .721 OPS
So that’s two straight years with a pretty mediocre OPS (he was at .721 in 2022 as well), and last year he missed significant time with injuries.
But what he can do is steal bases.
And he’s not one of these 30 steals guy that won’t hit you any homers at all. He has put up a 5.5% Brl% the last two years, that’s not good but it’s not a number that makes him a risk of single-digit homers across a full season.
Lots of fly balls, but not a lot of exit velo. Since he’s left-handed, it plays okay. If he were a righty in Camden things would be really scary, but we’ll get to that more with Mountcastle.
I’m not going to say he’s not locked in as the Orioles centerfielder, but with all of these other young names hanging around, you would have to think there’s a non-zero chance he loses the lead-off job, right? In fact, it looks like he already has!
Maybe this happened last year and I just missed it. Whatever, I’m not going to look it up.
Mullins is cheap now (ADP 150), so it’s fine - but I don’t view him as very useful besides as a steals source, so I’m probably not going after him unless I’m in a real pinch.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Lane Thomas, Ian Happ
JA: 580 PA, 68 R, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 21 SB, .238/.311/.393, .704 OPS
BatX: 571 PA, 79 R, 21 HR, 63 RBI, 30 SB, .242/.310/.424, .733 OPS
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