2024 Team Previews: Boston Red Sox
Going through all 30 teams, looking back at 2023 and ahead to the 2024 season through a fantasy baseball lens.
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Red Sox Intro
I am not sure how people are liking the intros, if at all! Probably most people are just skipping right down to the players and picking and choosing which ones to read based on who they’re interested in.
But regardless, I don’t have much about the Red Sox to introduce. I have no particular stories about my life involving them, and there are no controversies or overly interesting things happening with them this offseason. I did have a couple of friends who claimed to be big Red Sox fans growing up, and that always kind of pissed me off. When you grow up in Pittsburgh, by the age of like 13 most boys give up on the Pirates and move on to a more emotionally profitable situation. I used to think that was lame and horrible, “nothing worse than a bandwagoner!”. Nowadays, I think that’s incredibly keen and smart, why root for a bad team when you can root for a good one? This is sports, not some Renaissance duel where your honor must be protected at all costs. But still, screw those fair-weather Boston fans, I know they were faking it in 2004.
Hitters
Rafael Devers
Age: 27
Pos: 3B
Another very good season at the dish for Devers:
656 PA, 90 R, 33 HR, 100 RBI, 5 SB, .269/.349/.498, 19% K%, 9.5% BB%
The counting stats have always been the calling card for Devers. He’s never stolen many bases or hit .300 or flirted with 50 homers, but it’s just been steady production.
2021: 664 PA, 101 R, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 5 SB, .279
2022: 614 PA, 84 R, 27 HR, 88 RBI, 3 SB, .295
2023: 656 PA, 90 R, 33 HR, 100 RBI, 5 SB, .269
He majorly boosts your fantasy team in R+HR+RBI, which is 60% of the standard roto game, and he’s a positive in batting average as well even in his worst years.
It’s all good for Devers besides the steals. He’s a second or third-round pick as well, which is probably about right - but you can’t find much more security and solidity at third base than by going with Devers, who is still quite young.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert
JA Projection: 105 R, 30 HR, 99 RBI, 6 SB, .278/.359/.508, .868 OPS
Triston Casas
Age: 24
Pos: 1B
The breakout happened in 2023, and the fantasy world is abuzz with Casas hype for 2024. I think some of that has to do with the Boston market - there seem to be a lot of Red Sox fans in the fantasy world - but maybe I’m wrong about that.
The season he had:
502 PA, 66 R, 24 HR, 65 RBI, .263/.367/.490, 25% K%, 14% BB%, 13% Brl%
He started doing damage after the season’s first couple of months, so if we take out April and May (which I don’t like doing, but fine):
330 PA, 18 HR, .299/.397/.556, 23% K%, 14% BB%, 12.7% Brl%
There are no steals here, so don’t worry about that.
The contact rate was fine and the barrel rate was quite good:
The launch profile is very good, Casas got the ball in the air a ton and hit it very hard:
His 90th percentile EV on fly balls was in the top 10% of the league, so it’s easy to believe that this is a truly great power bat moving forward.
The downside, I suppose, is that he’s struggled with left-handed pitching in his career with a .752 OPS against them (.850 vs. RHP), but I don’t see that taking playing time away from him - it’s pretty clear that he’s an everyday player for the Red Sox and should be drafted as a top-ten first baseman for 2024.
He’s a patient hitter with a high walk rate, so that’s a big boost for OBP and points leagues, but again - this is a sure-fire top-150 draft pick in any league.
But you won’t get any steals, which limits the roto upside significantly - so we have to bake that in.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Spencer Torkelson, Paul Goldschmidt
JA Projection: 78 R, 26 HR, 83 RBI, 0 SB, .242/.351/.452, .803 OPS
Masataka Yoshida
Age: 30
Pos: OF
Yoshida started the year extremely well but ended up not doing a ton for roto purposes.
580 PA, 71 R, 15 HR, 72 RBI, 8 SB, .289/.338/.445, 14% K%, 6% BB%
He’s a Major League hitter, there aren’t questions about that. He is very talented, as you can see above with that high batting average and impressive strikeout rate.
However, the 15 homers and eight steals just aren’t doing it for us in the fantasy game.
He is closer to a Luis Arraez type than we want from him, especially since he’s going pretty high in drafts this year. It helps that he’s at the top of a lineup that will be at least league-average, so the runs and some RBI should be there.
There is some upside to stretch the homers toward 20 if he can lift the ball a bit more, but pulling balls in Fenway as a lefty doesn’t result in too many homers with how deep left-center gets there. I suspect we’ll continue to see his homer totals in the teens.
Solid enough outfield option if you need some runs and batting average after pick 150, but he’s not a guy I’m going to draft. I want to focus heavily on accumulating homers and steals with my hitter picks, and Yoshida doesn’t fit that mold.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Taylor Ward, Ian Happ
JA Projection: 557 PA, 72 R, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 8 SB, .281/.332/.438, .770 OPS
Trevor Story
Age: 31
Pos: SS
Story has not had a good time in Boston so far after signing the big contract. Between 2022 and 2023:
619 PA, .236/.300/.429, 24 HR, 24 SB, 31% K%, 76 R, 92 RBI
So that’s about one full season’s worth of games, and the HR+SB pace is great but I’m guessing Boston wanted more than a .730 OPS.
We only saw 216 PA from him in 2023, and the numbers basically match what we see above. High strikeout rate, but still a solid pace of seven homers and 11 steals, good for a 20-20 pace. I suppose we should project him for around a 20-20 season again, but he is past the prime ages so the trajectory is probably downward.
He’s not going to be a guy that has a massive season in 2024 and ends up a first-rounder again in 2025, but the discount is real - he’s going after pick 150 early on here and it’s pretty great to find a 20-20 guy that late - but he’s a pick you’ll want to make only after having a few batting average guys early on.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Oneil Cruz, Jordan Walker
JA Projection: 623 PA, 77 R, 20 HR, 82 RBI, 24 SB, .232/.305/.402, .708 OPS
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