2024 Team Previews: Detroit Tigers
Going through all 30 teams, looking back at 2023 and ahead to the 2024 season through a fantasy baseball lens.
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Tigers Intro
I live really close to Michigan now, which means that a lot of the people that live here choose Detroit as their “hometown” sports teams. It’s a pretty interesting place to live because we’re pretty much equidistant to Indianapolis, Chicago, and Detroit - so there are plenty of options and a lot of different possible games to go to that you can pull off in a one-day trip. But anyways, a few of friends I have from church are big Tigers fans.
When I say “big”, I mean they’re normally functioning humans who just like check the scores and keep tabs on the team throughout the summer rather than watching every game and knowing every player in the entire organization like some of us more psychotic people do here. So we had some people over last night for a church group thing and I’m talking to my guy Jeremy (same age as me also having multiple kids, it’s a match made in heaven) last night and we get talking about the Tigers (okay I started it), and since I recently wrote this post I’m like rattling off all these names to him and talking about the upside of the young core of Tigers.
He at least acted like he had heard of Colt Keith and Jackson Jobe, and I suppose I believe him - but it’s also a distinct possibility he was just trying to humor me. The guy owns a business and works like 50-60 hours a week while having two boys, so right now he’s probably like actually doing something while I’m here in the basement looking at baseball stats and talking about the Detroit Tigers AA team.
It’s a really tough life I live, you know? Most guys want to talk about sports, but I’m just not on the same plane as people when talking about their favorite MLB teams. This isn’t to say I’m on a higher or better plane, there’s no wrong way to like a sports team - none of this stuff means anything, so don’t think I’m being pompous here, please. These guys are talking about batting average and how many wins pitchers had last year, and I have to restrain myself from going off on a tirade. My tongue bleeds from the biting. One guy even talked to me about how he wished the Tigers would bunt more one time. Can you believe that? Bunting! These guys are still talking about Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, which I guess is what you do when you’ve lived through the last 10 years as a Tigers fan, but I’m like come on do you even know how hard Riley Greene hit his fly balls last year?
I digress! The Tigers are actually looking pretty interesting this year. I really like all of Torkelson/Greene/Carpenter, and that’s not to mention the other exciting young guys set to debut this season. The rotation is also improved with Skubal healthy and the additions of Flaherty and Maeda, although it’s probably still a below-average pitching staff. Let’s get further into it now.
Hitters
Comerica Park moved the walls in a bit before the 2023 season, and that helped hitters a good bit. The HR/Brl went from 35% to 45%, almost getting to the league average mark, but the slugging percentage on fly balls there was second-worst in the league at .748 - so we’re still probably looking at a park that at least slightly favors pitchers.
Spencer Torkelson
Age: 24
Pos: 1B
The breakout happened in 2023 for Torkelson, as he finished the year with 31 homers and was very, very good in the second half. For the year:
684 PA, .234/.314/.447, 88 R, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 3 SB, 25% K%, 9.8% BB%
You aren’t going to get many steals from the big man, but the power is established now which is impressive for a guy that just recently turned 24.
Everything in the power profile backs up the 31 homer season, and he’ll probably even one-up that in 2024 if he stays healthy.
The question marks would be about the counting stats with Detroit and the batting average. He still did strike out at a worse-than-average rate, and he hits a lot of fly balls in a bad park for fly balls, which turns into a lot of fly-outs when the ball doesn’t fly over the fence.
Typically with a former #1 overall pick that finally had the big breakout season, we would think the sky is the limit for him in the future. With Torkelson, I don’t know if that’s the case for fantasy purposes. He is not going to steal bags and I doubt he can really hit above .260 unless he really, really drops the strikeouts.
The ceiling is a Pete Alonso-type season for him, which certainly makes him a fantastic Major League player, but he’s not a top-30 pick in fantasy and may never be.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Vinnie Pasquantino, Paul Goldschmidt
My projection is really low on Torkelson, for some reason. Probably because my model is using 2021 and 2022 data here, and maybe with the Torkelson case we should really use mostly 2023 since he’s young and developing. I fully expect a 30 homer season from him, but you’ll see my projection way down at 25. I’ve given the Steamer projection as well for comparison.
JA Projection: 652 PA, 79 R, 25 HR, 86 RBI, 4 SB, .238/.320/.428, .747 OPS
Steamer: 652 PA, 82 R, 30 HR, 90 RBI, 3 SB, .242/.332/.457, .788 OPS
Riley Greene
Age: 23
Pos: OF
There are three exciting young hitters on the Tigers, and Greene is the second one. He had a good year in 2023 between some time missed due to injury.
416 PA, .288/.349/.447, 27% K%, 8% BB%, 11 HR, 51 R, 37 RBI, 7 SB
So there’s not much here in terms of homers and steals, but we’re looking at a 23 year old so we have to go a little bit deeper to see how he might improve in 2024.
This is another guy where there’s no glaring holes in the game. The contact rate is fine, and the barrel rate was pretty good:
The strikeout and walk stuff was fine, it was basically just fine across the board for him - besides the numbers on contact, which were very good.
So he hits the ball with authority and manages strikeouts, so that’s all good. He has had an issue with the ground balls, a common thing for young guys - and it’s not a great sign. You usually don’t see a super high xwOBACON with that high of a GB%, and he had one of the lowest average launch angles in the Majors:
One thing we should note about Greene is that he was among the league leaders in terms of hitting his fly balls with authority. His 90th percentile exit velocity on fly balls was 107.6, and that put him in the 94th percentile in that metric (I’m citing a percentile of a percentile, which is weird, but I hope that makes sense - he’s in the top 10% in the league when talking about hitting fly balls hard). Because of that, I see a lot of power upside for the guy if he can raise the launch angle. He swings the bat really hard, so he could turn in a very high HR/FB because of that, so we potentially have 30+ homers here, which the projection probably won’t suggest. But there’s downside, as we discussed, with the strikeouts and ground balls.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Lars Nootbaar, Eloy Jimenez
JA Projection: 85 R, 16 HR, 73 RBI, 11 SB, .267/.335/.422, .757 OPS
Steamer: 84 R, 18 HR, 71 RBI, 8 SB, .273/.343/.439, .783 OPS
Kerry Carpenter
Age: 26
Pos: OF
He also hit the IL during the season which cost him a shot at his first full MLB season, here are the numbers:
459 PA, 57 R, 20 HR, 64 RBI, 6 SB, .278/.340/.471, 25% K%, 7% BB%
He dropped the strikeout rate down from 28% in 2022 to that 25% mark last season, and the barrel rate stayed in double-digits. The OPS was good at .814, but it’s short of elite stuff - and we didn’t see a ton of steals.
He swings a lot, so he doesn’t walk much - but he also doesn’t have a horrible strikeout rate - and the power is there.
He is a little older than we might have thought, so there’s a little bit less upside there in terms of how much he could possibly improve. I’ll probably take Riley Greene ahead of him, but I think Carpenter is going to be a really nice power option later in drafts when you need some power, especially in a five-outfielder league.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Riley Greene, Taylor Ward, Eloy Jimenez
JA Projection: 522 PA, 68 R, 22 HR, 79 RBI, 6 SB, .268/.329/.466, .795 OPS
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