2024 Team Previews: Los Angeles Dodgers
Going through all 30 teams, looking back at 2023 and ahead to the 2024 season through a fantasy baseball lens.
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I am speeding this up a bit to finish it out. Let’s blast these last three teams out by the end of the week!
Dodgers Intro
The new evil empire! The Dodgers have been ripping off 100-win seasons for four years now, and they have eclipsed the century mark in five of the last six (not counting 2020 of course). They have made the playoffs every year since 2013, but all they have to show for it is one asterisk-marked World Series from that ridiculous 2020 season.
So what did they do to get over the hump? They went out and gave Shohei Ohtani 700 million dollars. Or did they? I don’t know, they don’t have to worry about $680 million of that until 2033, and the world might just be completely gone by then anyways. Either we’ll all warm or freeze or whatever the soup of the day is to death, or maybe God will just call game. I know people who are ready for either option!
My mom often told me when I was a kid that the rapture was going to happen and the world as we know it would come to an end by the time I was even in college. For some reason that didn’t scare me to death, but thinking back I’m not sure why it didn’t! That’s a pretty brutal thing to tell a kid, I suppose I just never really believed her. Fool me once… you know? I do remember being like wait how are you gonna tell me this and then later tonight tell me I’d better study for my tests so I can get good grades? If I’m not going to make it out of grade school, why does this matter? Let me just C+ it up and play more Madden 02 bro.
I had and have a fantastic mom, do not get me wrong here!
The other thing with the Dodgers is that they’ve had all of these problems in the rotation over the years. Clayton Kershaw is basically dust at this point, Julio Urias is history, Walker Buehler has had injuries and performance problems, but they just keep on going. They have plenty of electric young arms coming into the rotation seemingly yearly. But that wasn’t enough for them either so they went out and acquired Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto this off-season, giving them both long-term contracts. So the lineup and the rotation are elite once again coming into 2024. The one criticism you could maybe make is that they haven’t had devastatingly good bullpens and still don’t, but yeah it doesn’t really freaking matter when your lineup and rotation look like an all-star team. Good bullpens are almost a luxury item at this point.
It is hard to imagine a world in which the Dodgers don’t win the 2024 NL West, but crazier things have happened. Let’s break down this roster.
Hitters
Mookie Betts
Age: 31
Pos: 2B/OF
The top of the Dodgers lineup had a massive year, and Betts was about half the reason for that.
126 R, 39 HR, 107 RBI, 14 SB, .307/.408/.579, .987 OPS
Just a ridiculous year. There were so many of these insane lines last year that a few guys get lost in it.
The steals aren’t elite, and they could continue to dissipate. He has stolen 10, 12, and 14 the last three seasons, so it seems that 20+ is likely out of the question.
But he has always been elite at making contact and not giving up power when he’s doing it. That continued, and the lead-off spot in this Dodgers lineup is just so, so valuable.
I am very close to finishing this massive project of writing up all 30 teams, so I want to spend less and less time on the players that don’t need much detail. Betts is the #6 player in my ranks. He has that second base eligibility, which is amazing - and that could push him up in a few league types as well.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Corbin Carroll, Kyle Tucker
JA: 673 PA, 119 R, 34 HR, 85 RBI, 12 SB, .281/.375/.529, .903 OPS
BatX: 661 PA, 105 R, 32 HR, 100 RBI, 12 SB, .287/.380/.531, .912 OPS
Freddie Freeman
Age: 34
Pos: 1B
He and Betts really helped each other last year. They used each other to each reach 130+ R+RBI. Freeman’s line:
730 PA, 131 R, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 23 SB, .333/.411/.568, .979 OPS
That was his highest OPS of the last three years (.896 in 2021, .912 in 2022). Everything went right for Betts, Freeman, and the Dodgers lineup more generally.
The steals spiked, and I’m not sure we should expect that again.
He’s also never been a true 40-homer threat, so if you’re looking for raw power, you’re better off with Matt Olson. But very few players do counting stats plus batting average like Freeman, and he has 20 steals in the range of outcomes as well. He’s elite, what more can we can say?
The downside is that the age catches up with a little bit. His raw power and approach does make him a guy that is susceptible to a HR+SB season that comes in under 40. Most of the guys in the first round don’t have that risk. But the safety with Freeman makes up for it, I think, and we saw the upside he still has in roto just last season. He’s not my favorite first round pick, but it’s perfectly fine.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Matt Olson
JA: 675 PA, 102 R, 25 HR, 101 RBI, 16 SB, .292/.383/.496, .878 OPS
BatX: 678 PA, 102 R, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 15 SB, .303/.386/.511, .897 OPS
Shohei Ohtani
Age: 29
Pos: DH
He’s a little bit tougher to rank this year after the elbow surgery and with the fact that he won’t pitch. When he’s healthy, he’s right there with Aaron Judge for the best raw power in the game, and he is more than willing to steal bases as well.
With him not pitching in 2024, it’s possible he’s even more aggressive at stealing bases. That could make him a 40-30 threat. The power stuff:
Completely elite, and he has lowered the strikeout rate the lats two seasons to 25%.
The question is about that elbow. It wasn’t Tommy John surgery, and Ohtani himself has said he’s already close to 100% and will be ready for Opening Day. That’s good news, but there’s still a fair question about if he can get back to those previous power heights after the procedure.
The upside is ridiculous though, so he’ll be drafted in the early second round at the latest. Batting third for the Dodgers could turn into 100 runs, 50 homers, 130 RBI, 25 steals, and a .280 batting average or something like that. Given the injury thing and the DH-only eligibility, he’s not my favorite pick but I’m happy to take him. He’s my #11 overall hitter right now.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Yordan Alvarez, Fernando Tatis Jr.
JA: 630 PA, 119 R, 43 HR, 104 RBI, 17 SB, .273/.368/.586, .955 OPS
BatX: 607 PA, 108 R, 39 HR, 105 RBI, 24 SB, .293/.392/.590, .981 OPS
Will Smith
Age: 29
Pos: C
If he avoids injuries, Smith will hit clean-up behind Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani more than 125 times. Even if he was a bad hitter, that would still be incredibly interesting at the catcher position.
And Smith is a pretty good hitter!
“Pretty good” is about how I would have to describe it if we’re talking about being outside of the catcher position. He doesn’t have huge raw power and doesn’t steal many bases, but he’s very solid with the bat.
The projections put him in tier two at the catcher position. Check out the catcher preview here for more on that. He won’t play as much as Rutschman, and we know he doesn’t have huge upside - so he’s down a bit because of that, but the RBIs should be elite and he doesn’t hurt you anywhere.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: J.T. Realmuto, Adley Rutschman
JA: 519 PA, 68 R, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 5 SB, .259/.360/.444, .803 OPS
BatX: 517 PA, 73 R, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 2 SB, .273/.363/.490, .853 OPS
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