2024 Team Previews: Minnesota Twins
Going through all 30 teams, looking back at 2023 and ahead to the 2024 season through a fantasy baseball lens.
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Twins Intro
I have used this section of the team previews to talk about myself, and what we start we must finish! The first thing that comes to mind when I think of the Twins:
Of course.
Secondly, I remember Andrew McCutchen hitting his first Major League home run in the Metrodome.
The interesting thing is that my brain seems to remember baseball stuff way better than it remembers anything else. I often recall my life milestones and calculate what year they happened in because of what I remember happening with the Pirates around that same time.
“Interesting” probably isn’t the word my wife would use for that phenomena. When I pull a mental herculean feat such as recalling the exact trade return for Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez in July 2009, she does not applaud me or stagger into a chair forced by the incredible power of my brain. She uses it against me! If I can remember such things, why can’t I remember stuff from our wedding, or the birthdays of our children, or even more petty things such as her middle name!
Women… am I right?
Hitters
Royce Lewis
Age: 24
Pos: 3B
We have not seen a ton of Royce Lewis in the Majors, but drafters have seen enough to make him a pretty high draft pick for 2024.
There was some aggression on him in the very early drafts, but now his ADP is settling into the 50-70 range, which is still pretty wild for a guy with less than 300 career PAs in the Majors.
Those PAs, though:
284 PA, .310/.366/.548, 17 HR, 6 SB
That’s a tidy 16.7 PA/HR and an above-average 9% SB Attempt%. The Brl% was strong in 2023 but short of the elite range at 11.7%, but he managed strikeouts well at 23%.
The main thing with Lewis is that he’s had lots of trouble staying healthy. He missed all of 2021 and lasted only 203 PAs in 2022, but all-in-all over the last two years at all levels he has a .959 OPS with a homer every 17.8 PAs. That’s great stuff, and he finished last year healthy, so he should come into the 2024 season as the Twins #3 hitter, and probably their best bat.
Great results on contact, good strikeouts and walks, and some steals. It’s a good profile, I just feel like it’s a bit risky to use your 5th or 6th roster spot on him given the health track record and the lack of experience at the highest level.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado
JA Projection: 566 PA, 80 R, 24 HR, 88 RBI, 16 SB, .264./330/.465, .795 OPS
ATC……………: 547 PA, 78 R, 27 HR, 83 RBI, 13 SB, .275/.343/.499, .841 OPS
Steamer……..: 603 PA, 80 R, 28 HR, 89 RBI, 13 SB, .270/.337/.482, .819 OPS
Edouard Julien
Age: 24
Pos: 2B
The other young infielder the Twins are depending on in 2024 is Julien, who had a mixed bag of results in his first go at the Majors in 2023.
408 PA, .260/.378/.456, .834 OPS, 31% K%, 16% BB%, 16 HR, 3 SB
First, let’s get to the percentiles:
Julien has quite a unique approach. He hates to swing the bat, but when he gets something to swing at - he lets it rip. He did not make contact at a high rate, but when he did connect - it was loud.
He rarely swung the bat in AAA either at just a 35% Swing%, but down there he was making contact at an 80% clip with a 14% Brl% - elite stuff. The Brl% translated fine to the Majors, but the Contact% fell nearly 10 points down to 71%. That’s what Major League pitchers will do to you.
But to me, the Contact% and Brl% combination in the minors gives him oodles of upside for the future if he can raise that contact rate even a handful of points.
One more thing he might need to work out is the launch angle.
He went for a 48% GB% in AAA and a 50% mark in the Majors, so it was a consistent issue for him.
I think there’s much more upside than his ADP suggests, but he’s not a potential fantasy stud like Royce Lewis. But the projection likes him well enough, and he’s someone I think I’ll have plenty of interest in. And for points leagues and OBP leagues, he goes way up the chart with his super high walk rate.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Luis Rengifo, Jonathan India
JA Projection: 522 PA, 70 R, 20 HR, 49 RBI, 7 SB, .233/.351/.420, .772 OPS
ATC……………: 511 PA, 71 R, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 8 SB, .247/.365/.419, .783 OPS
Steamer……..: 543 PA, 74 R, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 6 SB, .239/.357/.399, .755 OPS
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