2024 Team Previews: Philadelphia Phillies
Going through all 30 teams, looking back at 2023 and ahead to the 2024 season through a fantasy baseball lens.
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Phillies Intro
The one thing Pirate fans don’t get to experience much of is rivalries. You can’t have a rival if you’re never competitive. There is this cross-state negative sentiment between the Steelers and Eagles and Penguins and Flyers, but that has never been a thing with Pirates and Phillies, at least not in my lifetime.
I have been to Philadelphia numerous times. My mom has always had an interest in American history, so we went at least twice when I was a kid to see the Liberty Bell and other things. This is the least interesting intro so far, but one time when I was in Boston (which is not Philadelphia) on some Paul Revere something-or-other tour, I was on the same tour bus as Kenny Mayne. I swear. And that was back when Sportscenter was still decent TV and Kenny was still allowed to be funny!
I was rooting for the Phillies pretty hard last year in the playoffs. Those games in Philly were fun to watch. I’m a big fan of Trea Turner, going so far as to name my third child Trea. Speaking of that one-year-old, he’s currently crawling up the stairs looking at me saying “No no” because he knows he’s not allowed on the stairs by himself.
The success rate of my wife and I at not letting kids fall down the stairs is pretty amazing. We aren’t quite at 100%, which is what you ideally want, but we’re well above 98% and that’s kept all three kids alive for nine combined years now. Baby Lee fell down like six stairs one time when he was one, so I guess only time will tell the damages of that, but for now, he seems fine.
Let’s talk about some Philadelphia Phillies players as we get very close to the end of the team previews series!
Hitters
Trea Turner
Age: 30
Pos: SS
You know the story with Turner. He had the worst half-season of his career to start in 2023 but then was one of the best hitters in the league in the final two months. All of that got him to this line:
691 PA, 102 R, 26 HR, 76 RBI, 30 SB, .266/.320/.459, .778 OPS, 22% K%
That’s still the lowest OPS of his last three years, and the steals didn’t climb like a lot of the other guys in the league. But this guy has returned top-25 fantasy hitter value every year for like seven years now, very few hitters can match his consistency on that front.
The barrel rate actually came up to 8.4% and his GB% dropped to 40%. That’s good for his homers, but not as good for his batting average - and you can see that .266 came in way below his career mark of .296.
There’s no reason to doubt or over-analyze Turner right now. I’m sure a lot of people will break down the splits stuff from last year, but I’m just going to keep it simple here and say that Trea Turner is an easy first-round pick. He’s a 25-25 projection with 30-40 upside, and I would imagine the batting average would come up significantly again next year.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Francisco Lindor
JA: 676 PA, 100 R, 24 HR, 87 RBI, 26 SB, .266/.321/.444, .765 OPS
BatX: 667 PA, 95 R, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 32 SB, .279/.332/.462, .795 OPS
Bryce Harper
Age: 31
Pos: 1B
Harper was recovering from elbow surgery, so the results came in a little bit lower than usual.
546 PA, 84 R, 21 HR, 72 RBI, 11 SB, .293/.401/.499, .900 OPS
Still quite good. His K% was at 22% and the Brl% was at 15%, both very good, but a little bit shy of the heights we’ve seen from him at other points in his career.
The contact rate came in pretty low. He was at 72% in 2022 and then 66% in 2023.
Here are the percentiles:
We still see very good stuff here, and again a lot of this stuff was probably weighed down a bit by him not being fully healthy from the beginning of the season.
He debuted on May 2nd, and through June he did this:
213 PA, .283/.371/.386, .757 OPS, 12.4% Brl%, 64.5% Contact%
After July 1st:
325 PA, .300/.406/.575, .981 OPS, 17.1% Brl%, 68.0% Contact%
The other new thing here is that you cannot use Harper in the outfield, at least not at the beginning of the season. He could add that eligibility during the year, and if you’re in a league where it’s only 10 games to get eligibility, that could happen pretty quickly.
I think he’s in for a huge year. It’s a really good lineup and I could see Harper taking more advantage of the steals-friendly environment and doing something like a 45-20 season with a good batting average.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Pete Alonso, Vlad Guerrero Jr.
JA: 634 PA, 88 R, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 12 SB, .272/.383/.495, .878 OPS
BatX: 630 PA, 93 R, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 13 SB, .281/.387/.505, .892 OPS
ATC: 630 PA, 96 R, 29 HR, 91 RBI, 13 SB, .284/.389/.515, .904 OPS
J.T. Realmuto
Age: 32
Pos: C
Everything got worse for Realmuto in 2023. The declines were due I’d say for a guy that has played this much catcher in the Major Leagues, but yeah you did not get your money’s worth from Realmuto last year. That isn’t to say it was a bad year for him, let’s check the three-year stats:
2021: .263/.343/.439, .782 OPS, 17 HR, 13 SB, 11.6% SB Attempt%
2022: .274/.340/.476, .816 OPS, 22 HR, 21 SB, 15.9% SB Attempt%
2023: .252/.312/.452, .764 OPS, 20 HR, 16 SB, 18.3% SB Attempt%
Interesting to see the attempt rate come on the steals but still have him come in five steals below the previous year. He was caught stealing a lot despite not losing any foot speed, so it’s not crazy to think he could steal 20 bags again next year. If the attempt rate stays at 18% I’d expect 20+ steals for sure, the OBP could bounce up a bit too.
So a lot of people will say Realmuto is descending now, and that’s probably true - but it’s also possible that it was just a down year for him. He could put together another .330 OBP and 20-20 season, I don’t think that’s crazy.
The ADP is cheaper for him this year (#27 last year, #69 this year). He’s still the second catcher off the board on average, and there’s a pretty clear top four here.
This is a pretty ugly plot but it shows you the prices:
So Realmuto is no longer the first catcher off the board, and that could mean he’s worth a shot.
I think Realmuto will be my #2 overall catcher behind Adley, but I am more likely to take him than Adley since he’s more likely to fall a few rounds.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Adley Rutschman, William Contreras, Will Smith
JA: 514 PA, 65 R, 20 HR, 67 RBI, 12 SB, .258/.327/.455, .783 OPS
BatX: 525 PA, 72 R, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 17 SB, .260/.326/.459, .785 OPS
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