2024 Team Previews: Tampa Bay Rays
Going through all 30 teams, looking back at 2023 and ahead to the 2024 season through a fantasy baseball lens.
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Rays Intro
I was a big Rays fan for a minute there from like 2008-2012. Basically my game back then was to be a Pirate fan until June and then after they were 20 games under .500, find the new team I would become a fake fan of for the rest of the season. And, as talked about in the Yankees intro, I hated the rich teams. So I would gravitate toward whatever surprising small-market team was surging that year, and that ended up being the Rays for most of those years.
B.J. Upton was my favorite player for awhile there. I think the reason for that was that he was the first “top prospect” I heard about and followed a little bit. Back in those days, not a lot of people were talking about prospects, so if you knew some names of minor league players you felt really cool. And then you could be like “the Rays are calling up Upton!!!” to your friends and they’d be like “what? who?” and then you could make fun of them for being stupid. Classic.
The Rays also inspired my first foray into the global jersey sales market. This kid in high school EJ was one of those dudes who had “the hookup” (aka he just knew about a website) on cheap jerseys. So I gave him like $30 or something for an Evan Longoria jersey, and was actually quite shocked when it actually came and looked like it was supposed to. It was a men’s extra large and I was about 5’9’’ 140 pounds, so I couldn’t really wear it, but hey it was a great price. EJ was also the first person I ever knew to have an iPhone. He got it like immediately and brought it into school, that would have been 2007 so I was in 10th or 11th grade, and it really blew my mind. I mean what a freaking invention that was at the time. We don’t really come up with technological advances like that anymore.
The question about if smart phones and high speed Internet have been a net good or bad for the world is an interesting one, but even while I’m pretty loose with where I go on this blog, I can’t say the right place for my thoughts on that are in the introduction to a Rays team preview.
I also think about Mark Hendrickson a lot.
And then you start thinking about those early years in Rays jerseys.
So sick, bro.
And then you remember that they were originally called the Devil Rays. And that’s my first memory of cancel culture. They had to change the team name because it talked about the devil! And as a traditionalist Christian theocrat, I say that’s the good version of cancel culture baby!
SHUT D DOOR AND KEEP OUT D DEVIL, SHUT D DOOR KEEP THE DEVIL IN DENIAL… SAY A PRAYER, AND EVERYTHING IS ALRIGHT. I SAY HEY, HEY, HEY - SHUT D DOOR!!!
That is a deeeeeep 90’s Christian kids music reference there. I would be surprised if even five people reading this have any idea what I’m talking about.
I actually don’t think changing the name had anything to do with being people offended by the word devil, seemed like the team just got new ownership who wanted a re-brand without completely overhauling everything. So for the sensitives reading this, it’s all good.
These days, the Rays do one thing - overperform. They don’t give big contracts, they buy low on pitching and turn guys into aces. It’s an incredibly impressive franchise.
However, 2024 will be their biggest challenge in quite some time. They have lost three aces for most or all of the year due to injury, they traded away a fourth ace to Los Angeles, and their best position player did some heinous stuff that was so bad that even I’m too afraid to make a joke about it!
Seeing if/how the Rays pull off a playoff berth this year will be quite interesting, but my money is on them being sort of bad this yar.
Hitters
Randy Arozarena
Age: 29
Pos: OF
He is the lone Rays player that goes in the top 50 in drafts, and he’s barely earning that designation with an ADP of 47. He’s been solid these last three seasons since becoming a full-time player for them:
2021: 94 R, 20 HR, 69 RBI, 20 SB, .274/.356/.459
2022: 72 R, 20 HR, 89 RBI, 32 SB, .263/.327/.445
2023: 95 R, 23 HR, 84 RBI, 22 SB, .255/.365/.426
Three straight 20-20 seasons, so he’s a very nice player to have for that combination. Notably, his stolen base attempt rate fell in 2023 from 30% to 16.5%. That’s still a good rate, but he came down while most of the rest of the league came up, and he was much, much less of an impact in steals last year.
If we think Randy is more of a 20 steals guy than a 30, that certainly justifies a significant plunge in ADP because he’s just not a guy that’s going to hit you 30 bombs and drive in a bunch of runs, and the strikeouts keep his batting average to more of the “that’s fine” range.
Mediocre contact rate, but he did bring the barrel rate up to compensate. He was at 8.2% Brl% in 2021, 7.9% in 2022, and then a big jump to 12.2% last season. I’m a little bit hesitant to believe in that number, but he did hit fly balls at a higher rate last year (25%, up from 20% the previous two years).
I think there is real risk here with Randy. He could fall shy of 20 homers and 20 steals, and that makes him a pretty suspect fantasy asset for a guy going in the top 50. The flip side is true as well though. Maybe he maintains the barrels and raises the steals back to 25, and all of the sudden you have a 25-25 guy in the 4th or 5th round, and that’s pretty great.
But that probably doesn’t give you much of an idea on whether or not to draft him or not, does it? Arozarena is a tough one to rank this year, and he’s also a tough one to type. I can only never type his name correctly on the first try.
He’s a pretty easy comparison to guys like Christian Yelich and Bryan Reynolds. Chances are he’ll be fine, and the ADP is justified, but I’d probably rather go with a little bit more upside than with my fourth pick (most often I’m drafting a pitcher around this range, by the way).
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Bryan Reynolds, Christian Yelich
The aggregate projection value makes him a $15.49 player, right there with Chisholm/Yelich/Jones/Reynolds. If I’m picking from that group though, I’m probably going Chisholm for upside or Reynolds for the safety. So that to me makes Randy a guy I won’t be drafting this year.
JA: 644 PA, 82 R, 23 HR, 87 RBI, 16 SB, .246/.342/.433, .775 OPS
ATC: 637 PA, 85 R, 24 HR, 82 RBI, 25 SB, .259/.350/.453, .803 OPS
Steam: 659 PA, 85 R, 23 HR, 86 RBI, 24 SB, .259/.346/.445, .791 OPS
Josh Lowe
Age: 26
Pos: OF
Lowe was one of the biggest breakouts of the 2023 season, earning himself 501 PAs and racking up an .833 OPS.
501 PA, 71 R, 20 HR, 83 RBI, 32 SB, .292/.335/.498
He lowered the K% massively from the 33% he posted in 2022 down to a 25% mark, and he was super valuable for fantasy with those 32 steals while not hurting any fantasy teams anywhere else.
The steals were believable from the beginning, as he had swiped 27 and 28 bags in the two years prior (minor leagues included, obviously). The big difference maker was the lower K% and the power production in the Majors.
The barrel rate was strong at 11%, and he really got the ball in the air at a good rate with just a 39% GB%.
One thing he may have benefited from was a .357 BABIP. I’d expect some regression there, but he was hitting a lot of line drives and he is fast - and both of those things raise BABIP.
He’s pretty aggressive at the plate, but not so much so that he never took a walk:
It all looks pretty good for Lowe, and he’s earned himself another shot at 600+ PAs near the top of a decent lineup. The projection systems aren’t going to forget about the struggles prior to 2023, however, so he doesn’t project super high here, landing at the #26 OF in the aggregate projection ($12.40). He’s around Lane Thomas and Ian Happ on that front.
Picking Lowe is really about how many steals and homers you have in your first few picks. If you need steals, he’s a great pick to catch up, but if you’re looking for more power and run production - he’s not your guy.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: George Springer, Christian Yelich
JA: 536 PA, 70 R, 19 HR, 76 RBI, 27 SB, .253/.307/.439, .745 OPS
ATC: 535 PA, 67 R, 18 HR, 73 RBI, 27 SB, .266/.326/.446, .772 OPS
Steam: 537 PA, 66 R, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 22 SB, .258/.324/.440, .764 OPS
Yandy Diaz
Age: 32
Pos: 1B
It seemed that the massive Yandy bust-out season was underway early on. He had raised the launch angle early in the year and was popping dingers.
Yandy HRs by Month:
April: 7
May: 5
June: 0
July: 2
Aug: 3
Sep: 5
All said and done:
600 PA, 95 R, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 0 SB, .330/.410/.522
A very, very good real-life season, but so-so for fantasy purposes. He was an OBP/points league borderline stud with the 16% K% and 11% BB%, but for roto leagues he finished as just the #50 overall hitter.
The no steals thing really hurts him, and it’s not at all a safe bet on him to hit 20 bombs again. That makes him a guy you’re drafting for runs and batting average, and that’s not really something I want to do at his ADP of 130.
But that aside, Diaz is a safe-ish asset. He will lead off a bunch and get on base, so the runs and hits will come. My personal strategy is to accumulate as many homers and steals as possible with my first 10 or so hitter picks, and Diaz just doesn’t fit that build in the standard league type.
Again, points leagues are a different story. Here’s where Yandy ranks in each format according to the aggregate projections:
5x5 Roto: #106
5x5 OBP Roto: #97
Points: #46
Big difference there with the points leagues.
My ranking is based on 5x5 roto with batting average, so it’s not super pretty.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Alec Bohm
JA: 623 PA, 93 R, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, .294/.383/.468, .851 OPS
ATC: 598 PA, 87 R, 17 HR, 67 RBI, 2 SB, .298/.389/.455, .845 OPS
Steam: 672 PA, 100 R, 21 HR, 72 RBI, 4 SB, .295/.388/.469, .857 OPS
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