2024 Team Previews: Toronto Blue Jays
Going through all 30 teams, looking back at 2023 and ahead to the 2024 season through a fantasy baseball lens.
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Blue Jays Intro
The Ohtani stuff was the highlight of the offseason, and I would feel bad for the Blue Jays fans out there if I knew any of them. In case you somehow missed it, there was a false report that Ohtani was on a plane to Toronto to announce his signing with the Blue Jays, and that made everybody, myself included, assume that the Jays had made the big splash. And then there were some further reports that Ohtani’s team had planted the story just to get the Dodgers to close the deal they wanted. I’m not sure what part of anything was true, but basically, I’ve stopped even caring trying to figure out what’s true with stuff like this. Journalism is in the garbage bin these days. That isn’t even really the fault of individual journalists, it’s more just the fault of the incentives brought upon by the revenue-by-advertising model and some human nature stuff cooked in there.
I wanted to be a sports journalist for a while there when I was in college, and thank God I didn’t. Brutal career. And I’m pretty sure the people in that field would not like me at all.
So anyways, I’m a proud American and aspiring country-boy hilbilly redneck. I’m actually pretty upset that I grew up in a city and lived the city-guy life for as long as I did. I might seriously be looking to trade in my Ford Escape for a pickup truck here pretty soon. I listen to these country music songs and wish I could identify with the singers so badly, it’s weird. I’ve never been heartbroken, I’ve never worked a blue-collar job, I don’t have a truck, and I’ve never worn boots. I’m a total fraud when listening to this stuff. But the music is amazing. Now that I live out here amongst the corn, I think if I just get a truck and wear a ballcap and jeans more often I can pass.
What does any of that have to do with the Blue Jays? Nothing. I’m guessing there are country boys in Canada too, although it doesn’t really feel like there are. The truth is, I don’t know anything at all about Canada! I know they have provinces and a Prime Minister. I also now know that 5% of my Substack audience is in Canada.
I just don’t think I can ever hope the Blue Jays do well, although over the years I have found plenty of reasons to dislike every team in the AL East.
The Jays did not get markedly better this off-season, and that was a bit surprising. This young core was supposed to bring home a World Series, and so far they’ve done very little with it. They need some help on the pitching front, and things could get pretty ugly there in the coming years as their reliable arms are all men of a certain age.
Let’s talk about these Blue Jays, we’re getting so close to being done with the team-by-team previews, and I’m really excited to put a bow on it.
Hitters
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Age: 24
Pos: 1B
I have been mostly citing stats from 2021-2023 during all of this, which I think makes sense, but for Vlad - let’s go the whole way back.
2019: .272/.339/.433, 15 HR, .772 OPS
2021: .311/.401/.602, 48 HR, 1.002 OPS
2022: .274/.339/.480, 32 HR, .818 OPS
2023: .264/.345/.444, 26 HR, .788 OPS
That 2021 season made him an easy first-round pick in 2022, and some of that even carried over to 2023 as he was a top 15 pick in 2023 drafts. But now, with two years looking more “very good” than “elite” for fantasy purposes, he’s down to an ADP around 35.
He’s never had a problem with strikeouts or exit velocity, it just seems to be that he can’t get the ball off of the ground enough to push the production into elite territory. Since he’s not a steals guy, you need a season like that 2021 year with 40+ bombs and a ton of RBIs to get him to fantasy stardom. Let’s take a look at the Brl% and launch angle stuff over the years:
2019: 6.7° | 7.7%
2020: 4.6° | 8.7%
2021: 9.4° | 15.1%
2022: 4.3° | 11.2%
2023: 10.5° | 11.1%
So the 2021 season saw an increase in launch angle that came with a big increase in barrel rate. Interestingly, we saw the launch angle come up in 2023 again but without the corresponding boost in Brl%. “Sweet Spot%” is probably a better stat for this, this is the percent of your batted balls that fall within the optimal launch angle range. Here are those numbers:
2019: 30.9%
2022: 29.5%
2021: 33.7%
2022: 27.9%
2023: 32.4%
So 2023 looks a lot like 2021, but for some reason, the homers didn’t match. In 2021 he hit a homer every 14.5 PAs, in 2023 it was 26.
Predicting the future is hard, and it’s not different with Vlad. But we know the floor is very solid. The Contact% vs. Brl% is good.
He puts balls in play at a high rate and hits them hard at a high rate as well. There is no risk of this guy only hitting 20 homers in a full season or something like that, the power floor is solid - it’s just a question about the ceiling.
The projections will give us the median expectation, and they like Vlad just fine. The price is almost two rounds cheaper than before, so I’m in on Vlad after two years of calling him a full fade in the first or second round.
The floor is just so solid here, and while I want ceiling players in the first and second rounds, I like building some floor in rounds 3-6 or so.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Pete Alonso, Christian Walker
JA: 662 PA, 93 R, 30 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB .276/.356/.488, .844 OPS
BatX: 663 PA, 96 R, 34 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .292/.369/.525, .894 OPS
Steamer: 663 PA, 97 R, 36 HR, 107 RBI, 7 SB, .286/.366/.528, .894 OPS
ATC: 662 PA, 87 R, 31 HR, 98 RBI, 6 SB, .280/.358/.494, .852 OPS
Bo Bichette
Age: 26
Pos: SS
Bichette is a lot like Vlad in that he had a massive 2021 season but then has fallen short of elite fantasy production in the two years since.
2021: .298/.343/.484, 29 HR, 25 SB, 121 R, 102 RBI
2022: .290/.333/.468, 24 HR, 13 SB, 91 R, 93 RBI
2023: .309/.341/.481, 21 HR, 5 SB, 71 R, 76 RBI
After that 2021 season we thought he could turn into a 30-30 guy with some experience, but it looks like that 2021 season might have been an outlier power-wise. The homers have come down into the mid or low twenties since then, and more concerning is that the steals have gone away. He attempted a steal at just a 5.2% rate last year, two points below the league average.
There would seem to be a solid counting stat floor even though we did see that drop under 150 R+RBI last year.
He makes a good amount of contact and has above-average power. We could see the homer output jump up a bit if he can get more balls into the air:
His GB% actually improved a little bit in 2023
2021: 49.3%
2022: 49.1%
2023: 46.4%
But through that his barrel rate has stayed between 9% and 10%, so that’s about what we should expect moving forward.
The problem with Bichette is the lack of steals. All of these shortstops around him are 30+ steals guys, so if we really think he’s like an 8-12 guy, that hurts - and it doesn’t come with 35+ homer upside either. Solid, safe option at shortstop - I’ll take him when he falls a bunch, but he’s not a priority for me.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: C.J. Abrams
JA: 649 PA, 99 R, 26 HR, 87 RBI, 8 SB, .289/.330/.479, .809 OPS
BATX: 639 PA, 84 R, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 14 SB, .286/.330/.447, .776 OPS
George Springer
Age: 34
Pos: OF
He’s old now and the performance is slowing down. The OPS has gone from .883 (2021) to .814 (2022) to .729 (2023), here are the rest of those 2023 marks:
2023: 681 PA, .256/.326/.403, .729 OPS, 21 HR, 20 SB, 87 R, 72 RBI
He took the SB attempt rate up four points to a strong 14.3% last year, so he followed the league trend there and that kept his fantasy value afloat even with the declining power.
Brl% and K% by year:
2021: 15.4% | 23.2%
2022: 8.4% | 17.2%
2023: 7.7% | 18.3%
The swing seems to be slowing down. Maybe that’s just his decision, or maybe it’s physical degradation - but the K% has dropped along with it, so that saves him a little bit.
I think we’re seeing Springer change his approach as he accepts the consequences of aging, so I say good for him!
If we can get another 20-20 season from him, he’ll be a steal at his ADP (125), but he’s headed towards being 35, so there are real questions now.
The projections have him as a $13.75 outfielder, similar to Teoscar Hernandez and Nick Castellanos. That makes him the #22 outfielder by projection, but he’s drafted as the #27 outfielder on average, so there’s a bit of value here.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Spencer Steer
JA: 622 PA, 89 R, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 15 SB, .258/.331/.423, .754 OPS
BATX: 598 PA, 79 R, 22 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB, .258/.333/.438, .771 OPS
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