2024 Team Previews: Washington Nationals
Going through all 30 teams, looking back at 2023 and ahead to the 2024 season through a fantasy baseball lens.
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Introduction & Links to All Teams Here
Nationals Intro
The Nationals have fallen a long way from their 2019 World Series heights. Just a fun reminder about that squad:
C: Yan Gomes
1B: Matt Adams
2B: Brian Dozier
SS: Trea Turner
3B: Anthony Rendon
LF: Juan Soto
CF: Victor Robles
RF: Adam Eaton
UT: Howie KendrickSP: Stephen Strasburg
SP: Patrick Corbin
SP: Max Scherzer
SP: Anibal Sanchez
SP: Erick Fedde
CL: Sean Doolittle
Only Patrick Corbin remains, and I’m guessing the Nationals wish he didn’t.
My mom went to some Pirate games when she was a kid, and that was when they were good, so she’s kind of always been a baseball fan in some capacity. She always complains about how the players on the teams change every year. And I get that - it wasn’t like that until the last 20 or 30 years or something, and especially in recent years for the Pirates you really haven’t seen many guys stick around for more than a few years.
But I can’t imagine the boomer moms in D.C. watching the roster go from that 2019 World Series to what it has looked like the last two seasons. Although, there probably aren’t any boomer moms in D.C. because no normal people live in that swamp. Do the Nationals even have like a real fan base? I have plenty of followers around these parts and I’ve never once heard anyone saying they like the Nationals. I suppose that’s a natural occurrence of them still being a pretty new franchise and given that not many people actually live around there - and those that do live in that area have other options. So I can’t say I feel bad for anybody. Remember when Fauci threw out that first pitch in 2020?
The new thing for 2024 is that they do have an exciting fantasy player in C.J. Abrams, but after that things are pretty ugly. They haven’t been silent in free agency, but it’s not really a team is in a position to be overly aggressive this year. If they get some young breakout arms in the rotation this year, I think you could see them spending some money and becoming decent again. They’re certainly not a franchise afraid to give out some big contracts, but the young core just isn’t really there right now, and paying out those huge contracts to guys like Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin takes a toll, even for bigger markets.
Let’s take a gander!
Hitters
CJ Abrams
Age: 23
Pos: SS
Abrams was one of the big breakouts of the 2023 season. After struggling to do much of anything in 2022 with the Padres and Nationals, Abrams went out and did this last season:
614 PA, 83 R, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 47 SB, .245/.298/.412, 19% K%, 5% BB%
That’s a fantastic fantasy season, and he was a top 30 hitter at the end of the year (mostly driven by the steals).
It’s hard enough to find a 40+ steals guy, even after the new rules, but it’s much tougher to find one of those guys that can also contribute in power. His 18 home runs obviously aren’t a game-changer for your fantasy team, but that was a big development given that he hit just three homers in 302 PAs in 2022.
Some more on that power breakout:
Stat: 2022 → 2023
Brl%: 2.1% → 6.9%
SLG: .324 → .412
Hard%: 31% → 36%
xwOBA: .266 → .306
GB%: 53% → 45%
I was a little bit caught off guard by it, but that’s a mistake I won’t make any more. I think it’s okay to reduce the impact of the “prospect hype” thing - those prospect ranker guys get stuff wrong all the time (as anybody would, it’s a nearly impossible task), but what we should never overlook at the ages of these players. Abrams just turned 23 in October, meaning he was 21 for that entire 2022 season. It’s really not fair to judge a guy’s future on what he did in age-21 season, that’s so young that the guy’s body may still be developing. There’s a much higher chance for huge improvement in one season for a guy at that age, so we want to project these super young guys a little bit more aggressively.
So the barrel rate still came up shy of league average (although it was 8.1% in the second half, and that is exactly the league average), which does mean we should temper the power expectations for 2024, I don’t think a 25-30 HR projection would be fair (although that’s certainly possible). It came with a nice contact rate though, which is a good thing to see:
Here are the percentiles:
Abrams is going to come up short of a first-rounder, but I think he’s a pretty easy top 25 hitter, so he’s going in the rankings at SS right behind Bobby Witt Jr. for now (lots of very good shortstops left to cover, of course).
The 5x5 roto projection gives him a dollar value of $13.58, which is good for #26 overall on the hitters side. So he’s a top-five round pick to be sure, and unlike some of the other guys near the top - he still has the upside to really crush his projection.
JA Projection: 623 PA, 87 R, 18 HR, 63 RBI, 39 SB, .257/.313/.415, .729 OPS
Lane Thomas
Age: 28
Pos: OF
One of the other big breakouts of the 2023 season was Lane Thomas, who went from being pretty much a nothing in fantasy to being one of the more valuable outfielders in the game. He finished the season #17 on the player rater, which is pretty insane.
682 PA, 101 R, 28 HR, 86 RBI, 20 SB, .268/.315/.468, 26% K%, 5% BB%
A lot of that is volume-based, he played 157 games at the top of the order, so that helps you get across 100 runs and join the 20-20 club, but man what a season regardless of that.
More numbers:
77% Contact%, 9.6% Brl%, 43% GB%, .305 xwOBA
Solid dot placement here:
He’s also in perfectly fine position in this one:
So for Thomas in 2023, he wasn’t elite at anything, but he was very solid across the board:
The problem here is that this guy isn’t new, he’s been around and like we said before has never been all that great for fantasy purposes.
He out-performed his expected numbers a bit with a .307 xwOBA compared to the .324 actual wOBA, and the xSLG was .395, well below the .431 he posted.
So there is some regression due here, and I suspect everybody will realize that and this guy will go easily outside of the top 50 despite the easy top 50 finish in 2023. Let’s just look at this 5x5 line the last three years for context:
2021: 264 PA, .235/.341/.412, 7 HR, 35 R, 28 RBI, 6 SB
2022: 548 PA, .241/.301/.404, 17 HR, 62 R, 52 RBI, 8 SB
2023: 682 PA, .268/.315/.468, 28 HR, 101 R, 86 RBI, 20 SB
Massive increases there in 2023, but you can see that he’s never not been at least a decent HR+SB guy.
He’s a big splits guy, which I’m hesitant to care about, but it came to mind so here you go:
2022-2023
vs. RHP: .239/.295/.408, .704 OPS, 29.9 PA/HR, 8.6% Brl%
vs. LHP: .291/.338/.505, .843 OPS, 23.2 PA/HR, 7.5% Brl%
The projection comes out pretty solid on him, and puts him at #50 for hitters as far as 5x5 roto value goes. You will have to use him with a pick inside the top 80 or so, and while I can’t say that’s an exciting thing to do - it also doesn’t feel like a horrifying idea.
JA Projection: 660 PA, 88 R, 27 HR, 77 RBI, 16 SB, .256/.309/.451, .760 OPS
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Keibert Ruiz
Age: 25
Pos: C
Ruiz played a full season for the Nationals and stayed in a prominent spot in the lineup, but the production for fantasy purposes wasn’t there for a league that starts 10-12 catchers:
562 PA, .262/.310/.411, .721 OPS, 18 HR, 1 SB, 55 R, 68 RBI
An 18 homer, 123 R+RBI season isn’t the worst thing in the world from the catcher position, but those who drafted him were hoping for more of a breakout given his age and prior status as a top prospect.
The strikeout rate with him was incredible at just 10.3%, that’s one of the best marks in the league - and the contact rate of 86% mostly backs that up.
He was popping up in the notes all year because of this K% and Brl% combination. For awhile there he was had a double-digit barrel rate for long stretches, but it finished the year at 5.8%.
Let’s look at his last two seasons.
2022: .672 OPS, 7 HR, 3.7% Brl%, 11.5% K%, 7% BB%, .327 xwOBA
2023: .716 OPS, 18 HR, 5.8% Brl%, 10.0% K%, 5% BB%, .322 xwOBA
So that’s two straight years with a K% under 12%, he has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the league over the last two seasons (Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, Jeff McNeil, Alejandro Kirk).
The reason to draft Ruiz is for some safety. He should be in that lineup a ton thanks to his defensive prowess and lack of other offensive options on this team, and he has good batting average prospects with how infrequently he strikes out. A 20+ homer season will probably come at some point given the age and the already decent barrel rates. I’m perfectly fine drafting Ruiz in deep leagues to lock in some production at a tough position, and he could even be one of these good options to punt the position with in standard leagues. I’m not going to be surprised at all if he ends up near the the top five at the position.
The projection makes him my #11 catcher, so that’s a starter in most leagues even without the impressive HR+SB numbers.
JA Projection: 534 PA, 61 R, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 2 SB, .268/.324/.427, .751 OPS
Luis Garcia
Age: 23
Pos: 2B
Garcia was one of the guys I hyped up as a possible late-round breakout pick, but it didn’t materialize for him.
482 PA, .266/.304/.385, .688 OPS, 9 HR, 61 R, 50 RBI, 9 SB, 12% K%
He even got sent back to the minors for a spell, putting up a .696 OPS in 108 PAs there.
He’s still a very interesting profile. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates and highest contact rates in the league, but that has something to do with him being very swing-heavy, which leads to a very low walk rate and a bad contact profile.
It’s hard to imagine a guy putting so many balls in play would go for just nine homers a mediocre batting average.
His batted ball profile has something to tell us there. His average exit velo is under 88 miles per hour, the average launch angle is just five degrees, and the GB% is up at 53%, and he very rarely pulls the ball. So he’s mostly just spraying ground balls and line drives around, which is not going to result in much power.
I fell for the low strikeout rate and high hard-hit rate last year, but this year I’m not going to do that. If he busts out, then fine - but I’ve been duped by the hard-hit ground ball too many time. Garcia is not going to be a “short list” guy for me again this year. I will leave him on the “long list” because he’ll be drafted at the point where I think it would be fine to take a shot on him given that he’s still very young with some power and speed ability (remember what we talked about with Abrams at the beginning of this).
JA Projection: 472 PA, 53 R, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 9 SB, .276/.316/.420, .736 OPS
Nick Senzel
Age: 28
Pos: 3B/OF
The former top prospect has a new home after several frustrating years with the Reds. Let’s look at his last three seasons:
Total PAs (all levels)
2021: 162
2022: 424
2023: 399
And let’s look at the Major League stats:
2021: 124 PA, .252/.323/.315, 1 HR, 2 SB, 13% K%, 10% BB%
2022: 411 PA, .231/.296/.306, 5 HR, 7 SB, 18.5% K%, 7.3% BB%
2023: 330 PA, .239/.300/.402, 13 HR, 6 SB, 22.4% K%, 7.9% BB%
So it’s not exactly good production when healthy with an overall .645 OPS in the Majors the last three years (865 total PA).
But now he’s in Washington and they have reportedly already given him the everyday third base job, for as long as he can keep it.
More 2022-2023 numbers (Majors):
4.0% Brl%, 78% Contact%, 34% Hard-Hit%, .287 xwOBA, 45% GB%
Not very good stuff there, it wouldn’t seem this is a guy to rely on for any kind of decent power production. Washington is a fine hitters park, but unless you leave Cincinnati for Colorado - your home hitting environment is getting worse.
If I still thought that a healthy Senzel could be a good Major League hitter, I would have some flier interest, but I don’t think this guy has any real path to a great fantasy year - so I’m out.
Comps/Rank-Arounds: Anthony Rendon
JA Projection: 413 PA, 42 R, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 10 SB, .247/.309/.370, .679 OPS
Stone Garrett
Age: 28
Pos: OF
Real quick here, I doubt Garrett is much of a factor on the 2024 Nationals team given these young prospects they have. So he’s a pretty easy fade in drafts, but the profile is still somewhat interesting if he were to find his way into a starting role somewhere.
2023 stats:
268 PA, .274/.347/.457, 31% K%, 10% BB%, 9.6% Brl%, .330 xwOBA
He spent more of the year injured, but finished the year on the big league team and showed that he can still hit for power when he’s making contact.
But like we said, he doesn’t set up as a starting MLB player, and he’s 28 years old which makes him pretty easy just to skip over - especially if you’re drafting early on when all of these questions are still outstanding.
JA Projection: 400 PA, 47 R, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 6 SB, .259/.327/.444, .771 OPS
Dylan Crews
Age: 22
Pos: OF
He made it to AA pretty quickly after getting drafted with the #2 overall pick, and there’s a pretty good chance we see Crews in the Majors in 2023 barring injury or just really bad performance.
Here’s what he did between A and AA
156 PA, .269/.359/.440, 24.4% K%, 9.0% BB%, 5 HR, 31 PA/HR, 23 R, 29 RBI, 5 SB, 6 CS
I don’t have any Statcast data on him or anything advanced, so we’re dealing with a very small sample size here without even having the data we like the most.
I think given the name value, people will draft Dylan Crews even in redraft leagues next year, and that’s just not something I want to do. The best case scenario, I think, would be that he comes up in May and then is around a league-average fantasy hitter for the rest of the way, so it’s not really worth a pick in my eyes, but I’m a prospect hater - you know that.
Steamer Projection:
217 PA, 22 R, 5 HR, 22 RBI, 4 SB, .231/.290/.365, .655 OPS
James Wood
Age: 21
Pos: OF
This is another one of the Nationals top prospects, and he’s been in the minors a year longer than Crews. That might not put him closer to the Majors than Crews automatically, but we do have more information about him.
His minor league career (2022-2023 between SD and WSH up to the AA level, he was acquired in the Juan Soto trade):
878 PA, .285/.382/.535, .916 OPS, 27% K%, 13% BB%, 38 HR, 23 PA/HR, 37 SB
Very good stuff here despite the higher K%. Last year:
549 PA, .262/.353/.520, .873 OPS, 32% K%, 12% BB%, 26 HR, 21 PA/HR, 18 SB
So it would look like he’s selling out a bit for power with that high strikeout rate, but it’s worked so far with the great overall OPS.
The majority of his time last year was in AA, so you would think he’d start the year in AAA and maybe even have a shot to make the Major League team out of camp. He attempts a lot of steals and clearly has pop. The projections should be and will be a 30%+ K%, but I do think this is a guy who might fly under the radar in drafts - and he’s a guy I’m willing to take a shot on given that he is a 35th round pick or later. In normal leagues, he’s just someone to monitor early on to see if he makes improvements in strikeouts while maintaining the power - and it will be really good if we can get some AAA StatCast data on him.
No projection available
Pitchers
Josiah Gray
Age: 26
Let’s look at the year-over-year numbers here:
2021: 12 GS, 62.2 IP, 23.2% K%, 10.3% BB%, 2.15 HR/9
2022: 28 GS, 148.2 IP, 23.7% K%, 10.2% BB%, 2.30 HR/9
2023: 30 GS, 159.0 IP, 20.5% K%, 11.5% BB%, 1.25 HR/9
So he finally shook his massive home run problem, but it came at the cost of his strikeout rate and walk rate - both of those moving in the wrong direction. At the end of the year, he had a 3.91 ERA though, and the Nationals will certainly take that given the full-season’s worth of innings he provided.
His SwStr% has been at 12.1% the last two seasons, which is right at the league average - just really not what we were hoping for a talented young arm like Gray.
He made some pitch mix changes in 2023, throwing more sliders and fewer four seamers. Here’s how that pitch mix changed in full:
Pitch - 2022 Usage - 2023 Usage
SL: 30% → 25%
FF: 39% → 17%
FC: 0% → 18%
CU: 25% → 16%
SI: 4% → 18%
ST: 0% → 6%
CH: 3% → 2%ST = Sweeper
Lots of tinkering around there, and I really like the attempt despite it not really working all that well for what we’re looking for. He threw all three fastball variations almost evenly, which very few guys do. The numbers on those fastballs:
FF: 8.8% SwStr%, 44% Strike%, .349 xwOBA 38% GB%
FC: 10.6% SwStr%, 46% Strike%, .369 xwOBA, 35% GB%
SI: 6.0% SwStr%, 48% Strike%, .417 xwOBA, 38% GB%
So nothing great there, you really would like to see a Strike% above 50% with the fastball, and he’s not even getting ground balls with the sinker while all of these pitches got hit pretty hard.
So these pitches don’t seem good, and that’s been the story with Gray - great breaking stuff, bad fastballs.
I’m more than happy to give him another shot in 2024 though given the age, and that he’s tinkering and has these options, and has a good arm. So while we are 2.5 seasons now of bad numbers, he’s someone I’m going to give one more shot on in 2024 - maybe he’ll finally figure out the right mix.
JA Projection:
31 GS, 176 IP, 6 W, 171 SO, 5.23 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 21.8% K%, 10.5% BB%
MacKenzie Gore
Age: 25
It feels like we’ve seen a lot of MacKenzie for him to only be 25 (he’s actually 24 as I write this). It was a overall mediocre season for him in 2023:
27 GS, 26% K%, 10% BB%, 13.5% SwStr%, 39% GB%, 12.1% Brl%, .344 xwOBA
The ERA landed at 4.42 with a bad 1.40 WHIP.
The positive side is that his SwStr% increased from 11.2% to that 13.5% mark (a pretty strong number), and the 16% K-BB% is far from terrible.
I do like the practice of buying-low on pitchers that have gotten hit really hard in recent past, because we know that stats like Brl% and xwOBA allowed are not sticky year to year. So, even though Gore gave up a 12% Brl% in 2023, we should still project much closer to the league average 8% than the 12%. Probably 9.5% or so is the correct projection, which would certainly help the ERA.
The problem is the walks, as has long been the case for him.
He threw a ton of fastballs last year at 60%, and it earned a decent SwStr% at 10.7% and a decent Strike% at 50%, but it was far from the elite pitch you want to see while being thrown that frequently.
The curveball and slider got whiffs, but didn’t have great Strike% or Ball% numbers, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher no doubt which doesn’t play well in Washington.
Overall, I would say it was a positive season for Gore. He stayed healthy and took a point off of his walk rate while maintaining an above-average strikeout rate, and there’s positive regression expected on the ball in play stuff. So that puts me in on Gore for 2024, I think he’ll be more than cheap enough to justify the pick.
JA Projection:
28 GS, 149 IP, 5 W, 162 SO, 4.47 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 24.8% K%, 10.2% BB%
Cade Cavalli
Age: 25
He is a tough one because he missed the entire 2023 season to injury, having Tommy John surgery in March. That should put him back in the upper levels of the minors pretty early on in 2024, and he could be a full-go by the time Spring Training rolls around. I am probably not going to draft him given all the unknowns, but if he gets and stays healthy, he will be in the Nationals rotation before long, so he deserves a look.
In 2022 in AAA:
AAA: 20 GS, 97 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 25.9% K%, 9.7% BB%, .28 HR/9
He made just one outing in the Majors. So it was a fine season in the minors, but a 17% K-BB% isn’t really what I’m looking for from someone who is about to face the challenge of going from AAA to the Majors. I’ll let someone else draft him - if that’s even something that is done this season. If nothing else, he’s someone to keep an eye on in those first few outings in AAA if he indeed starts there.
JA Projection:
3 GS, 37 IP, 1 W, 37 SO, 4.35 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 22.8% K5, 10.0% BB%
And that will do it for the Nationals! I don’t expect much, but there are certainly some relevant names to draft and some guys to keep an eye on when things get rolling.