2024 Team Review - Chicago Cubs
A look at the biggest standout players from the 2024 Chicago Cubs, and some speculation about what they'll be looking to do this offseason.
I’ll get a quick links page up soon, but so far:
The Cubs had the highest payroll for any team that missed the playoffs, around $230 million. They finished 83-79, tying for second in this weak NL Central division.
The funny thing is that there wasn’t a glaring weakness. They finished 13th in the league in runs and eighth in the league in ERA. Their bullpen wasn’t very good, and they didn’t have a true standout performance on offense, but this was a very competitive Major League team.
Free Agents
Kyle Hendricks
Breakouts
The Cubs’ best player was Shota Imanaga. They signed the 30-year-old to a five-year deal, and they surely got their money’s worth in 2024.
29 GS, 173.1 IP, 2.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 25.1% K%, 4.0% BB%
He started the year with a bang, posting an 0.84 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his first nine starts. He had a 58:9 K:BB in that time, allowing just five earned runs. It was a ridiculous start. There was some good fortune in there, as only two of his many fly balls flew over a fence. That corrected quickly after that stretch, giving up seven homes in his next five starts in a stretch of games where he posted a 7.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In his 15 starts following that, he was very good again with a 2.86 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP on a 20.8% K-BB%
The pitch mix was 82% four-seamers and splitters. His splitter was insane with a 27% SwStr%, and he was able to locate the four-seamer well enough to set it up well all year long.
He threw five other pitch types with the remaining 18%, so there are a lot of ways for him to potentially transform his arsenal as he gets deeper into his thirties.
The Achilles heel is the homer. He gave up a 32.9% FB%, the fifth-highest rate among starters with at least 20 starts. That led to 27 homers, the 12th-most in baseball. The numbers against righties were strong but short of elite. He went for a 24% K% and a 1.78 WHIP+. He was much stronger against lefties, with a 28% K% and a 1.40 WHIP+.
Imanaga is an unquestioned SP1 on this team and is likely a top-15 pick at SP in fantasy next year. It is an interesting situation with a rookie being 31 years old for his second season. He’s not the greatest dynasty or keeper option for that reason, and I could see him having a season or two when the ERA bloats because he gives up 30+ homers.
The bottom line is that the Cubs found themselves a steal with Imanaga, and he’ll be a very good pitcher for them in the next few years.
It’s a little tougher to call Michael Busch a breakout, but he did prove himself to be a useful Major League player, and that was not so clear heading into the year.
.248/.334/.440, .773 OPS, 21 HR, 11.2% Brl%, 29% K%, 11% BB%, .320 xwOBA
He was one of those guys who had his best stretch of performance right at the beginning of the year, so he fooled a lot of us into thinking he was breaking out as a stud hitter in the league.
That didn’t turn out to be true. The strikeouts eventually caught up with him, and he was unable to do much against left-handed pitching (.292 xwOBA, one homer).
He has the tools to stick in the Majors. The 90th-percentile EV is at 105.3 (105 is the lower bound of where we want to be), his GB% was solid at 39%, and the strikeout rate did come down as the year went on (27% in July, 2% in August, 21% in September). He will be 27 next year, so there are a few years left in his prime years - and he could certainly be a guy who takes another step forward next year after a valuable full year in the Majors.
I have to give some credit to Ian Happ. He hit 25 homers and drove in 86 runs while scoring 89 times and posting a 122 wRC+.
It was news to me that this wasn’t much different from what he’s done in the last two seasons, so it wasn’t a breakout at all for Happ; it was just business as usual.
2022: .271/.342/.440, .781 OPS, 122 wRC+
2023: .248/.360/.4321, .791 OPS, 120 wRC+
2024: .243/.341/.441, .782 OPS, 122 wRC+
Happ is simply a very good Major League hitter.
A guy that broke out at the very end of the season was Pete Crow-Armstrong. There is not a ton of youth on this squad, so there’s a lot of hope that PCA can replicate his late-season success.
From August on, he hit .290/.342/.472 with seven homers and seven steals. Simple math tells us that’s a 21-21 pace. The key for him was cutting down the strikeouts. His 22% K% in this sample was a three-point improvement from the 25% mark he had prior.
The problem I have with the guy is that he just doesn’t hit the ball hard. His max EV was 107.2, and his 90th percentile mark was 101.7. The 30% FB% rate helped him to a 7.4% Brl%, which isn’t awful, and in those final two months, he did hit the ball harder (102.1 90th, 10.1% Brl%). He’s also just 22, so there’s potential power growth.
There is a lot of Brenton Doyle in the PCA profile. He got to the Majors by being an elite center fielder and a fantastic base runner.
The defense alone gets him a long leash at the plate. If he can just hit a little bit, he’ll keep the job. This is exactly the stuff I was saying about Doyle coming into last year, and he ended up taking a massive stride forward in hitting.
Can PCA do that as well? I’m not convinced. But those last two months were eye-popping, and I think it’s a pretty good bet that he can be a 150+ game guy next year. At the very least, that will give you 25+ steals and double-digit homers to go along with his very high ceiling.
Busts
I’m calling Cody Bellinger a bust just because he did not come near what he did in 2023. His 2024 line was an improvement from what we saw in 2021-2022, so he’s only a bust in the one sense.
He maintained his low strikeout rate and took a few more walks, but the raw power has never come back from those heights in 2018-2019. His bat speed is in the 13th percentile; the power upside is extremely limited with him. He managed the 26 homers in 2023 with a very high HR/FB. The true expectation for him is 15-20, and the xBA of .238 is very disappointing. Long gone are the days when we view Bellinger as an upside hitter. He is what he is - and that’s a pretty poor fantasy baseball option.
Dansby Swanson finished extremely strong with a .495 SLG in September, but that could only do so much to his season line, and he finished with a .701 OPS with 16 homers and 19 steals. He will be 31 next year and hasn’t made a big impact on the fantasy game since leaving Atlanta.
Things were pretty rough for Christopher Morel. He hit .199/.302/.373 as a Cub and then got traded for Isaac Paredes, who didn’t do much better, slashing .223/.325/.307 with just three homers in 212 PAs. The Cubs clearly had defense in mind when making the trade, but Paredes really doesn’t make for much of a hitter in Wrigley. He does not hit the ball hard at all and relies so heavily on pulling fly balls down the line for homers - and it’s way harder to do that in Wrigley than in Tropicana. Paredes homered 16 times as a Ray and then just three times as a Cub, not hitting a single homer in September.
Paredes will be an easy fade in 2025 drafts.
Others
Justin Steele was banged up a few times and ended up with just 24 starts and 134.2 innings. He was still pretty good with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP on a 24.3% K% and a 6.7% BB%. The strikeouts and homers numbers have been very consistent with Steele in his three Major League seasons:
Steele is one of these guys who gets it done with command (103 Location+) and deception. He generated just a 12.2% SwStr% this year but posted a very strong 50.1% Strike%. He’s long been very successful at limiting hard contact, and that happened again this year with a low .303 xwOBA allowed. Steele is good, and he’ll continue to be good.
Minor Leagues
Cade Horton was the pitching prospect to watch, but he dealt with a bunch of injury stuff and made just nine starts. He was good in that time with a 28% K% and a 9.1% BB%, and he did reach the AAA level. I think we’ll see Horton in the Major League rotation next year, and he’s someone to target in dynasty leagues, in my opinion. He has good stuff and very strong command, so let’s hope he can stay healthy and get to the Majors early on next year.
The #1 hitting prospect in the organization right now is Matt Shaw. He slashed .284/.379/.488 with 21 homers and 31 steals in 522 PAs. He began the year in AA and reached AAA in August. He posted a sub-8% barrel rate in AAA and comes in at just 5’9’’ and 185 pounds - so I doubt there’s going to be much power in the Majors, but he’s someone we’ll likely see next year.
Owen Caissie is their #2 prospect. He slashed .274/.372/.462 with 18 homers and 11 steals in 545 PAs. He was in AAA all year long. He did have a strikeout issue with a 28% K%, but there is a good amount of raw power here. His max EV was 115.5, which is really high - and he was able to lift the ball often with a low 40% GB%.
Kevin Alcantara slashed .278/.353/.428 in the minors with 14 homers. He got a quick cup of coffee in the Majors at the very end of the year, and he’ll be in play for a job in the outfield next year. He struck out too much in the minors (26% K%) and didn’t exactly mash the ball with that .428 SLG. But he’s just 22, so there’s room for growth.
One guy who isn’t on the top prospects list but is worthy of a shoutout is Alexander Canario. He slugged .523 with 18 homers and a 17.5% Brl% in AAA. The 30% K% is a problem, but he was clearly the top power guy in the minors at a per-game basis.
One last guy to mention is Moises Ballesteros. He’s a catcher and first baseman who slashed a strong .286/.352/.469 between AA and AAA. The 9% Brl% was decent, and he made a good amount of contact with the 21% K% and 76% Contact% after reaching AAA. He’s not a big guy either (5’8’’, 195), so that could limit his power potential.
I’m not a prospect guy, but it seems like the Cubs will have a swarm of top prospects debut next year on the hitting side. Their top seven prospects all reached at least AA last year and at the ages where they’d be ready to get the call-up if they’re performing well enough.
Offseason Preview
The Cubs strike me as a team that could decide to go for it in 2025. The NL Central is not shaping up to be a very good division once again, and the roster has some good bones. The 1-2 punch with Imanaga and Steele is great, and they don’t have a glaring weakness in the lineup. Given that the core of the offense is up there in age (Suzuki, Happ, and Swanson are all 30, Bellinger at 29) but still has at least a few good years left, it would make sense for the Cubs to make a couple of big splashes and go after a division crown next year.
They have a very good reputation in the Japanese market with Suzuki and Imanaga already being success stories for them - so we could see them with another addition or two there. I’d say they could also go after a starting pitcher since they’re pretty weak after their top two. And they could certainly benefit from another power bat. The names I’m speculating on are Pete Alonso, Teoscar Hernandez, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, and Yusei Kikuchi. I’m sure these predictions will turn out hugely wrong in total, but it’s fun to speculate.
In summary, I think they’ll be busy this offseason and put together a competitive roster for 2025.