2025 Position Previews: Outfield, Part 1
We kick off the hitting position previews with a look at the first few tiers of the outfield.
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Stat Distribution
I took the projections (averaging my own with ATC) inside the top 350 ADP for hitters and then averaged each of the standard five categories. Here’s what it looks like:
What we find:
The speed is mostly in the middle infield and outfield
There is no speed and little average at catcher
Outfield and shortstop are the places to go for elite fantasy bats
We can bring back the “position distribution by chunk” table from this post. I divided the 50 picks in ADP into chunks. Chunk one includes picks 1-50, chunk two includes picks 51-100, and so on.
What we see is a ton of outfielders and shortstops in the first 50 picks. The studs are at those two positions.
Knowing this, it’s a good idea to get into the outfield early. This is much more true in a five-outfielder league. If you’re in a 15-teamer where you have to start five outfielders, do not wait around to get some outfielders. I would be prioritizing getting one or two of the top 20 guys that we’ll show below.
In a 10 or 12-team league where you’re only starting three outfielders, it’s not nearly as urgent. The replacement level will be quite high in those leagues. And given that each team starts three outfielders, there will be more of them on waivers to start with. You need to keep all of that in mind when drafting.
Risk is relative.
Drafting Mike Trout in an eight-team league with your buddies is an entirely different (and better) idea than doing it in a 15-team draft-and-hold. Replacement level and league settings are key. How many IL spots do you have? How open is your league to trading? Think of all of these things when deciding how much risk to take on.
Tier One
Here’s how it looks. For each tier, I give you the projections from both my model and ATC for the standard five categories plus OBP. I also show the auction values generated from those projections (not including OBP). For each tier, I will re-rank the players for points leagues.
Here are your elite contributors. There are many more outfielders with the skills to put up top-25 production in 2025, but these are the safest bets.
#1 Aaron Judge: Just remember that he was not worth this cost in 2023 (.267 average, 37 HR, 3 SB). It’s no guarantee that he’ll return another 50+ homer season with a .300+ batting average like he did in 2022 and 2024. But nobody is truly safe, and he and Ohtani are in their own tier in power production.
#2 Kyle Tucker: The move to Wrigley might hurt him. He will have to deal with colder weather than ever before and this lineup might not be as good as the Houston lineups he’s benefited from for most of his career. But there are not many guys with 30-30 and .280 upside, so I like locking in that across-the-board production.
#3 Fernando Tatis: He continued to hit the ball extremely hard last year, but he missed time to injury (again) and stole just 11 bags on a middling 13% attempt rate. Both of those things push his floor down a bit, but the ceiling is the #1 player in fantasy.
#4 Corbin Carroll: Maybe it’s a personal preference that shouldn’t invade my rankings, but I like locking in a bunch of steals early on in the draft. That helps me avoid feeling like I have to draft a steals-only player in the middle of the draft who hurts my team’s power production. Carroll is among the league’s best for steals and runs, and he doesn’t hurt you in any of the other categories.
#5 Mookie Betts: He’s probably the least skilled player in this tier. That might sound crazy since the guy seemingly could be a professional athlete in nine different sports, but as far as hitting the ball hard and running go - he’s a bit behind a lot of the other elite names. I could see a season for Betts where he’s under 25 homers and under 15 steals, which you wouldn’t love to have in the first round. That said, he’s just one year removed from a 39-homer campaign, and the runs and RBI are sure to be plentiful in LA this year. He also has a bunch of positional eligibility. He’s a fine first-rounder in my book.
#6 Juan Soto: He is much better for points leagues. I have some doubts about the batting average (he hit just .242 in 2022) and steals (he’s been in single digits in three of the last four years). He moves well up the board in OBP and points leagues, and he’s still a very safe pick in any kind of league type, but there’s enough that I don’t like for him to end up at #6.
#7 Julio Rodriguez: It’s a trendy thing these days to bash the Mariners park and lineup. And fair enough, I suppose. But what I see is a 32-37 season from J-Rod just two years ago. I think he’ll cruise past 50 HR+SB with a .270+ average. The R+RBI trade-off, which comes with the team context, is one I’m willing to make.
#8 Jackson Chourio: We’re all being very aggressive in making Chourio a second-round pick after his rookie season. Don’t forget that the guy slashed just .239/.291/.380 in the first half of last year. But the second half (.313/.366/.556, 12 HR, 12 SB), the skills, and the previous prospect hype on him have the field buying in. And I guess I’m no different!
#9 Yordan Alvarez: There are no steals, a lot of injuries in the past, and it will probably be the worst lineup the Astros have put around him in his career. But there are few pure hitters better than Yordan. He did his best work last year (635 PA, .308/.392/.567, 35 HR), and that has me thinking that the 40-homer, 110 RBI season is going to come.
Points League Ranks
Judge
Tucker
Soto ⬆️
Betts ⬆️
Tatis
Alvarez ⬆️
Carroll
Chourio
Rodriguez
A player would be better in a points league primarily because of walks and, secondly, the team context. League settings can differ, but steals tend not to be nearly as important there, either. Soto will rack up a ton of points with walks (something you can 100% count on, by the way), and guys like J-Rod go down the list because of the poor offenses around them and their dependence on steals for their roto value.
Tier Recap
You should not be thinking about the position of the players you’re drafting early on. I recommend just taking what the draft gives you there. My price-considered favorites here are Tucker, Tatis, and Carroll.