2025 Team Previews - Arizona Diamondbacks
As part of my 2025 team previews series, I go through all fantasy-relevant players on the Arizona Diamondbacks ahead of the 2025 season.
Check out the intro and team links page here.
Roster
I am in “full speed ahead” mode, so I’m not going to be getting cute and writing intro paragraphs much more! I doubt any of you will miss them. Let’s get right into what the roster is looking like for 2025.
This is the team that led baseball in runs last year. You would not think that to be true when you see the lineup they’re currently projected for.
I am not trying to say they’re a bad offense, but it doesn’t look like a lineup that could have led the league in runs just one year ago. Christian Walker and Joc Pederson departed, but they did a decent job replacing them with the addition of Josh Naylor, and they have some depth in the system. I don’t hate the offense, but I do see plenty of ways things could go south for them.
The rotation is deep. Not all depth is good depth, but some depth is better than no depth! From the reports, Corbin Burnes basically came to them and asked them to sign him as he wanted to return to his home. That’s a nice story, and a pretty lucky thing for Arizona. That was a huge addition to the rotation, and they have a few nice names behind him as well in Gallen and Pfaadt. If Kelly, E-Rod, and Montgomery can show some veteran life, this could be a nice rotation.
Now, let’s get into the fantasy stuff!
Hitters
Corbin Carroll
Age: 24
Pos: OF
Carroll did not prove to be the best first-round pick last year. He went top three in most drafts and ended up having the type of season you could have found later in the draft.
684 PA, .231/.322/.428, 121 R, 22 HR, 74 RBI, 35 SB
That is an elite supply of runs and steals without hurting you in HR/RBI, but the .231 batting average hurt coming from the first player you drafted.
It was particularly striking because he had hit .283 in his first two seasons, and it didn’t come with a higher strikeout rate. In fact, his 19% K% was the lowest of his young career.
The .254 BABIP didn’t help, but that doesn’t tell the full story. His expected batting average was right on track at .232.
The explanation seems to have to do with the launch angle. His 21% line drive rate was two points below 2023. He was hitting a lot of balls either on the ground or in the air where a fielder could get to it.
Corbin Carroll Sweet Spot% by Year
2022: 34.2%
2023: 32.7%
2024: 27.8%
There’s a huge drop-off there, and that explains a ton of this lack of batting average. The good news is that he’s very likely to rebound back over 30%. I make that full case here.
We know that Carroll is an elite source of runs and steals, and we know he can clear 20 homers. I would expect a batting average above .250 and a round-one worthy season in 2025.
Rank
Projection
682 PA, 99 R, 24 HR, 96 RBI, 38 SB, .255/.343/.453, $17.28 roto value
Ketel Marte
Age: 31
Pos: 2B
Marte had a huge season last year and cruised to being the #1 second baseman for fantasy. The Diamondbacks led the league in run-scoring, and that certainly helped their switch-hitting infielder.
583 PA, .294/.374/.562, 36 HR, 93 R, 95 RBI, 7 SB
We have long known that Marte can hit for a very high batting average. He makes a ton of contact and hits the ball hard. That’s a recipe for batting average. What we didn’t expect was the 30-homer explosion. He hit just 25 in 70 more PAs in 2023:
Marte saw a four-point increase in barrel rate while maintaining the same strong contact rate. He hit the ball much harder than ever before and got it in the air enough to put up an elite power season.
It’s a little bit suspicious to me, and Ketel is one of the biggest “buy high” players by ADP this year. You now have to use a top-35 pick to get him, and he’s been nowhere near that valuable in three of his last four seasons.
I should be fair to him and note that he did have a a similar season in 2019, when he blasted 32 homers on a .329 batting average. But that was a long time ago now, and we have these three pretty mediocre (for fantasy, at least) seasons from 2021 to 2023 to deal with.
It’s a tough call on Marte. He is clearly the #1 second baseman on the board, and that’s clearly the most shallow position we have. I don’t think it’s completely crazy to buy in on him for your 3rd or 4th round pick, but it’s not something I can see myself doing. I just think it’s too likely that he has another 2021-2023 season to justify the price.
I really don’t think that Arizona is going to lead the league in runs again, so there should be some counting stats regression across the board.
Rank
Projection
669 PA, 97 R, 28 HR, 94 RBI, 9 SB, .275/.361/.492, $14.53 roto value
Josh Naylor
Age: 27
Pos: 1B
The big man had himself a career year in 2024, and now he finds himself on a new team after a trade.
632 PA, .243/.320/.456, 31 HR, 84 R, 108 RBI, 6 SB
This cleared his previous max in homers by 11.
A very general rule is that I don’t want to draft older players after a career year. By “older” here, I mean 25 or greater since that usually makes them a guy who has been in the league for a bit. There is plenty of randomness in baseball, and we see guys mostly bouncing up and down in their year-to-year production. To expect a repeat of a career-best season is foolish.
Nothing in his profile would make you think he would have hit 14 homers more than the previous year.
The K% and BB% both came up, and his barrel rate stayed basically the same. The biggest difference there is playing time. He saw almost 150 more PAs last year. That will certainly help, but his home run rate grew by 1.5 points along with it.
He doesn’t strike out much at all, he doesn’t have a big issue with GB% (47%), and he hits the ball hard:
I can buy into Naylor as a 25-homer guy, but I think it’s pretty unlikely we get another 30+ season from him. That, along with the lack of steals, makes me neutral at best on this situation.
My projection on him puts him pretty close to guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Burger, and Vinnie Pasquantino. While he’s a safer bet than those names, he costs significantly more.
Rank
Projection
622 PA, 83 R, 21 HR, 81 RBI, 9 SB, .264/.340/.446, $8.72 roto value
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