2025 Team Previews - Toronto Blue Jays
As part of my 2025 team previews series, I go through all fantasy-relevant players on the Toronto Blue Jays ahead of the 2025 season.
Check out the intro and team links page here.
Intro
I think last year, in this intro, I made fun of Canada a lot. Upon actual review, it wasn’t too bad. I made fun of the Blue Jays fans for thinking they had Ohtani with that false rumor about him flying there to announce the deal, and then I went on about how bad sports journalists can be and reminisced about how that’s the job I wanted when I was a kid.
At one point, I was talking about how I moved from the city to the country, and now cities just disgust me, and in there, I said this:
I might seriously be looking to trade in my Ford Escape for a pickup truck here pretty soon.
And that happened! But man, there’s a lot of stuff I can write that you guys don’t care about - and surely, my 2016 Chevy Colorado isn’t one of them.
The Blue Jays had a really bad season in 2024. It was their first time under .500 since 2019. Their offense was mostly a one-man show, and the pitching didn’t do much to support that.
Things were looking pretty sweet for the Jays after that 2021 season. It looked like they had two of the best hitters in the league with Vladdy and Bichette, and then a strong supporting cast with Semien, Springer, and an emerging Alejandro Kirk. And all of that went with a decent rotation with Robbie Ray and Alek Manoah looking like studs. But, things fall apart.
They still have the main cornerstone piece in Vladdy, and he has a ton of elite years to go. But for now, he is their only real superstar player. I’m not sure what’s going up there. I’d say it’s time for them to piss or get off the pot with Vlad. There’s been trade rumors for a couple of years with him. I don’t think anything has gotten close to happening, but they’re wasting a lot of these prime years with him by not doing something big. In my opinion, they should either send him off for the huge return or spend some of those Canadian dollars to get him some help.
This is the lamest intro so far, but the Blue Jays play in the lamest country so far, so it fits. Let’s get into it.
Roster
It’s a really bad lineup after the top three. And there’s only one definitely good bat in that top three. I still think there’s hope for Bichette, as we’ll see, and Springer likely has some juice left. This is a team that could make a big free-agent splash, and I’d be surprised if they don’t do a few things coming up here in December/January.
There are worse rotations in the league than the one we find in Toronto. But it’s a rotation largely on the decline.
The same three old heads are back. We have seen a ton of Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt over the years, but they ain’t done yet!
I do think I’ll have to come back to update this as free agency progresses, but here’s the rundown of what we currently have.
Hitters
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Age:
Pos: 1B
Just when you finally give up on drafting Vlad as a top-25 pick, he goes and performs like a top-25 pick. It was a great season for the big man:
98 R, 30 HR, 103 RBI, 2 SB, .323/.396/.544, .940 OPS
That is a big-time line, and it came without the help of many of his teammates. We now have a very confusing four-year stretch from Vlad.
Vlad dropped his K% to a career-best mark of 13.8%. He also posted his best walk rate (10.3%), barrel rate (13.7%), and xwOBA (.408) since that huge 2021 season.
Striking out less and hitting the ball harder is a good way to have a “breakout” season. For Vlad, it was more of a “break back” season, as he got back to the guy we thought he was in that 2021 season.
The problem is that we cannot forget about those underwhelming 2022 and 2023 seasons. He is really dependent on the long ball and the RBI to get to a level of elite fantasy production. Batting average can be quite finicky. It’s tough to rely on, and we see that with Vlad and his near 60-point gap between his last two seasons.
The first base position is an aging one. We have had the same names near the top of the list seemingly for the last 3-4 years. Vlad is still in his prime years, and there could be even bigger seasons to come.
Vlad might re-enter the top tier at the first base position this year, but it’s important to pair him up with a high steals player early on in roto drafts.
Rank
New #1!
Projection
663 PA, 96 R, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 5 SB, .292/.374/.523, $14.06 roto value
George Springer
Age: 35
Pos: OF
The man is old! He has avoided injury for two consecutive seasons now, but his performance bottomed out in 2024:
613 PA, .220/.303/.374, 19 HR, 19% K%, 10% BB%, 16 SB
It’s not surprising to see a guy dropping off in his mid-thirties. Springer does not seem to have a ton of fantasy value left over.
But still, a 19-homer, 16-steal season isn’t the worst thing in the world. His .245 BABIP was very low, and his .241 xBA beat his actual batting average by 20 points.
The barrel rate did improve to 9.3% from 7.7% in 2023, but his launch velocity profile became ugly.
Avg/Max EV by Year
2022: 88.7 average, 113.6 max
2023: 88.3 average, 115.9 max
2024: 87.5 average, 110.6 max
It would seem that time has taken a toll on Springer, and he just is not swinging the bat like he used to. He can still get to a 15-15 season, and he’ll play a bunch, so you can take him in very deep leagues, but I think he’s out of the standard league picture.
Rank
Projection
660 PA, 84 R, 18 HR, 61 RBI, 15 SB, .239/.317/.378, $8.06 roto value
Daulton Varsho
Age: 28
Pos: OF
I wish I knew where that 2022 season that Varsho had came from. Do you remember that?
Varsho in 2022:
591 PA, .235/.301/.443, 27 HR, 16 SB
He put up those numbers as a catcher. In 2023, he was heading toward a full-time outfield job, and it looked like that 2022 season was a potential floor for the guy. But since joining the Blue Jays, he has not been much of a hitter.
2023: .222/.286/.391, 20 HR, 16 SB, 23% K%, 8% BB%, .295 xwOBA
2024: .214/.292/.407, 18 HR, 10 SB, 27% K%, 9.4% BB%, .266 xwOBA
The strikeout rate ballooned in 2024, but his contact rate stayed decent at 73%. The quality of contact fell significantly, and a lot of that was due to a bunch of pop-ups.
His average launch angle was 24.2°, the highest mark in the league among hitters with at least 200 balls in play.
That is way too many balls above 40°.
Most BBE’s above 40°
Jose Ramirez 128
Anthony Santander 127
Alex Bregman 109
Marcus Semien 109
Isaac Paredes 109
Willy Adames 104
Nolan Arenado 103
Cal Raleigh 98
Bobby Witt Jr. 97
Corbin Carroll 97
Daulton Varsho 97
It is good news for 2025 because that launch angle is very likely to drop down, which should turn into a few extra barrels. Maybe he can hit 25 homers and steal 15 bags, but it’s pretty clear that the batting average is going to be a disaster.
Varsho xBA by Year
2021: .248
2022: .213
2023: .232
2024: .186
We do have a real question about his health. He missed the last couple of weeks with a shoulder thing and had to have surgery to repair his rotator cuff. Now there are reports coming out that he’s not a sure thing to be ready for the beginning of 2025. That makes him a tough pick in any type of league. What we do know is that once he’s healthy, he’ll be in the lineup. His outfield defense keeps him in the lineup, and he has enough power/speed for me to consider as a bench stash in very deep leagues.
Rank
Projection
560 PA, 75 R, 16 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .206/.283/.354, $7.96 roto value
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