Finding the Cliffs: Second and Third Base
I look into early draft ADP to find the "cliffs" at each position
Welcome back to our journey to find the cliffs at each position. I’m trying to identify the points in the draft where the production dries up. The perfect draft would be to get a player or two at each position before all of the cliffs hit. I don’t think it is possible, but it’s something to aspire to.
The links:
I’m going to maintain a summary here where I put the ADP values where each cliff is located. I will use the term “Main Cliff” for the point in the draft where I’m saying that I have to have a guy at this position before we get to this point.
Catcher
Main Cliff: 155
Final Cliff: 335
First Base
First Cliff: 122
Main Cliff: 290
Final Cliff: 408
To reiterate, we’re going by ADP, not my projections or rankings. And I’m not analyzing or giving insight into players, only chunks. These are large tiers, but once we get to the position preview series, I will rank all of these guys in the way I think is right and create my own tiers, and there will be a lot more of them than what you see here.
Let’s start with second base:
Notes
I felt that 2B deserved an earlier cliff than other positions just to highlight how fast it gets ugly. I have just seven names before the first cliff. That means five teams in a 12-teamer will fail to get there. There are viable names in that second grouping, but they all have at least one pretty large issue. They aren’t guys you think will be a true benefit to your fantasy team.
The true cliff is the second line. There are still some playing time options available after that point (Brendan Donovan, Colt Keith, Willi Castro, Jonathan India), but you’re really hurting for rotisserie production at that point. The upside guys (Jackson Holliday, Zack Gelof, Brandon Lowe) all have playing time concerns. Holliday and Gelof will have to hit to stay in the lineup, and Lowe has that brutal injury history.
After the final cliff, You still a mixture of upside guys (Kristian Campbell) and some guys with safe playing time (IKF, Horwitz, Lux), but nobody here is someone you want starting anywhere on your fantasy team on Opening Day.
I have drafted six teams so far and done it differently at 2B every time. I have started with Albies, Semien, McLain, Garcia, and one time, I missed the boat and had to start with Bogaerts. On that team, I quickly went back to it and took Gleyber Torres, I think.
My favorite pick is Ozzie Albies. I really like buying in on the Braves’ bounce-back season, and he’s much cheaper than in years past. I also think McLain and Garcia are fine starts. Both guys have risk, but both have HR + SB + AVG ability, and it would take a lot for them to lose playing time.
My favorite later-round targets are Gelof (projecting for 20-20 again), Brandon Lowe, and Willi Castro. The “disaster relief” options would be Horwitz and Kiner-Falefa. Neither of them is good, but the Pirates will be forced to play them every day.
Now we look at third base:
Note:
J-Ram is quite a bit ahead of everybody else, but I would say the top four there are the “studs” at the position. After those names, we have seven more names with job security and a good bit of multi-category ability. The two riskier names there are Mark Vientos and Junior Caminero, but they both sit here with 40+ HR and 100+ RBI upside. I’m fine with either of them as my starter.
The main cliff is going to be at pick 250 after Paredes, so this is a pretty deep position in that regard. There’s some injury risk with guys like Josh Jung and Max Muncy, but all of those guys are solid contributors in roto leagues (for different reasons, to be sure). Obviously, we prefer the guys in the first grouping, but third base is one of the positions I’m willing to sacrifice.
In the third grouping, we still have guys who will play everyday, at least at the beginning of the year. But none of them are very good fantasy bats, and a lot of them are at risk of losing the job.
My price-considered favorites are Jake Burger, Matt Chapman, Josh Jung, Willi Castro, and Isaac Paredes. The guys after the main cliff I like the most are Ryan McMahon, Joey Ortiz, Matt Shaw, and Jose Miranda.
Let’s update the tracker:
Catcher
Main Cliff: 155
Final Cliff: 335
First Base
First Cliff: 122
Main Cliff: 290
Final Cliff: 408
Second Base
First Cliff: 125
Main Cliff: 211
Final Cliff: 290
Third Base
First Cliff: 141
Main Cliff: 251
Final Cliff: 300
I will be back soon with shortstop and outfield.