MLB Daily Notes - July 20th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Got a “Recent Pitcher Trends” piece out yesterday, lots of stuff in there that surprised / was interesting to me - so check that out if you’re into this kind of fantasy baseball thing, which I think you probably are!
Also debuted PITCHER OUTS PROPS yesterday. It’s been added to the Player Prop Comparison sheet
Six bets throughout the day showed up at above 0.1, and five of them lost! So that’s a good start! We also went 1-4 in K props and 1-1 in BB props, so if you followed me yesterday you lost a good amount of money - shout out to us!
Prop bet trackers:
Pitchers - Yesterday
A big 17% SwStr% from Justin Verlander yesterday. That was his best mark of the year, so that’s some good news after his very slow start to the year.
Chase Silseth also had a game. This guy at one point was one of the Angels top pitching prospects, I believe. He went for a big 16.5% SwStr% yesterday and a 54.1% Strike%. So that will make us notice him. In the minors this year:
27% K%, 8.5% BB%, 12.7% SwStr%, 45.9% Strike%, 38% Ball%
So that’s not very good! Here’s his pitch mix from the short Major League sample this year:
Claaaassssiccccc young pitcher with a good sl ider but a bad fastball. I don’t think there’s much reason to consider him for fantasy right now.
Here’s the top five in SwStr% yesterday from the “Yesterdays SP Data” Google Sheet that updates every morning for paid subs.
You can see that Bello had a good SwStr% there despite his very bad outing against the Athletics. The 3:2 K:BB is obviously bad, and he got barreled up a ton. Not great, and maybe I’ve been too high on him - but I’m holding still.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Justin Verlander (vs. CWS): 31.6 Points
2. Chase Silseth (vs. NYY): 31.16 Points
3. Eduardo Rodriguez (vs. KC): 27.35 Points
4. Yu Darvish (vs. TOR): 27.3 Points
5. Kenta Maeda (vs. SEA): 26.44 Points
6. Luis Castillo (vs. MIN): 24.7 Points
7. Ryne Nelson (vs. ATL): 23.35 Points
8. Jose Berrios (vs. SD): 22.7 Points
9. Brandon Bielak (vs. COL): 22.36 Points
10. Kyle Hendricks (vs. WSH): 18.5 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo (SEA): 22 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
2. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 17 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. Justin Verlander (NYM): 17 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
4. Yu Darvish (SD): 16 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
5. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 15 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
6. Kenta Maeda (MIN): 14 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
7. Chase Silseth (LAA): 14 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
8. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 14 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
9. Aaron Civale (CLE): 13 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
10. Jon Gray (TEX): 13 Whiffs (63 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Justin Verlander (NYM): 56.0 Strike%, 24.0 Ball%
2. Kenta Maeda (MIN): 55.0 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
3. Luis Castillo (SEA): 54.8 Strike%, 32.7 Ball%
4. Chase Silseth (LAA): 54.1 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
5. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 52.8 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%
6. Zack Littell (TB): 51.0 Strike%, 27.5 Ball%
7. Jon Gray (TEX): 50.8 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%
8. Jose Berrios (TOR): 50.0 Strike%, 37.7 Ball%
9. Aaron Civale (CLE): 50.0 Strike%, 29.5 Ball%
10. Sandy Alcantara (MIA): 49.5 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
11. Yu Darvish (SD): 49.0 Strike%, 36.0 Ball%
12. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI): 48.8 Strike%, 30.2 Ball%
13. Colin Rea (MIL): 48.6 Strike%, 27.0 Ball%
14. Dakota Hudson (STL): 48.5 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
15. Julio Urias (LAD): 48.4 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jose Berrios's CH velo (24 pitches) UP 2.5mph to 86.0
Eduardo Rodriguez's FC velo (11 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 91.0
Rich Hill's SI velo (11 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 87.2
Rich Hill's FC velo (20 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 84.9
Ross Stripling's SI velo (10 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 92.0
Ken Waldichuk's ST velo (29 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 82.7
Kenta Maeda's FF velo (15 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 91.8
Yu Darvish's SL velo (18 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 86.9
Luis Castillo's SI velo (17 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 97.3
Ryne Nelson's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 82.9
Kenta Maeda's FS velo (31 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.1
Ryan Yarbrough's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 85.3
Aaron Civale's FC velo (40 pitches) DOWN -2.7mph to 85.3
Eduardo Rodriguez's CH velo (15 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 83.5
Aaron Civale's CU velo (22 pitches) DOWN -3.5mph to 74.8
Chase Silseth's SL velo (39 pitches) DOWN -3.7mph to 80.6
Aaron Civale's SI velo (20 pitches) DOWN -3.9mph to 88.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Brandon Bielak's FF usage (53.3%) up 26.9 points
Brayan Bello's CH usage (41.8%) up 19.2 points
Chase Silseth's SL usage (45.9%) up 27.3 points
Chase Silseth's SI usage (32.9%) up 24.0 points
Dakota Hudson's FF usage (27.3%) up 14.0 points
Dakota Hudson's CU usage (18.2%) up 12.9 points
Eduardo Rodriguez's SL usage (18.0%) up 12.1 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (49.2%) up 19.9 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Bobby Miller Sinker: -26.7%
Luis Medina Sinker: +26.6%
Luis Medina 4-Seam Fastball: -21.1%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +20.7%
Brandon Bielak 4-Seam Fastball: +16.5%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +16.3%
Michael Grove Slider: -15.1%
Zac Gallen 4-Seam Fastball: +14.8%
Austin Gomber 4-Seam Fastball: +14.4%
Matt Manning 4-Seam Fastball: -14.3%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +14.3%
Yusei Kikuchi 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Lance Lynn Slider: +13.1%
Sonny Gray Sweeper: +13.1%
Jake Irvin Sinker: +12.7%
Bryan Woo Slider: -12.7%
Blake Snell Curveball: +12.6%
Edward Cabrera 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Patrick Corbin Sinker: -12.4%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +12.4%
Taijuan Walker Cutter: +12.1%
Yu Darvish Curveball: +12.0%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 36.5% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 74 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Logan Webb - 84 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Pablo Lopez - 81 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 81 TBF, 33.4% CSW%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 75 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Zac Gallen - 74 TBF, 31.7% CSW%
Lance Lynn - 74 TBF, 31.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 39.0% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
Logan Webb - 84 TBF, 33.3% K%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Lance Lynn - 74 TBF, 31.1% K%
Max Scherzer - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Pablo Lopez - 81 TBF, 30.9% K%
Jesus Luzardo - 91 TBF, 30.8% K%
Zac Gallen - 74 TBF, 29.7% K%
Jose Berrios - 92 TBF, 29.3% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 36.4% K-BB%
Logan Webb - 84 TBF, 31.0% K-BB%
Joe Musgrove - 94 TBF, 29.8% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Aaron Nola - 81 TBF, 27.2% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 74 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 74 TBF, 24.3% K-BB%
Jose Berrios - 92 TBF, 23.9% K-BB%
Pablo Lopez - 81 TBF, 23.5% K-BB%
Chris Bassitt - 94 TBF, 23.4% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Patrick Sandoval - 74 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 87 TBF, 58.8% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 103 TBF, 58.1% GB%
Logan Webb - 84 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Kyle Gibson - 78 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Touki Toussaint - 88 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Graham Ashcraft - 98 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Sonny Gray - 76 TBF, 53.2% GB%
Charlie Morton - 93 TBF, 52.2% GB%
Brady Singer - 86 TBF, 51.4% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Aaron Nola - 81 TBF, 28.4 K%, 1.2 BB%, 49.1% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 94 TBF, 27.7 K%, 4.3 BB%, 46.8% GB%
Gerrit Cole - 76 TBF, 27.6 K%, 5.3 BB%, 44.9% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 91 TBF, 30.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Jose Berrios - 92 TBF, 29.3 K%, 5.4 BB%, 44.1% GB%
Kodai Senga - 51 TBF, 39.2 K%, 5.9 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 84 TBF, 33.3 K%, 2.4 BB%, 57.4% GB%
Spencer Strider - 77 TBF, 39.0 K%, 2.6 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 74 TBF, 35.1 K%, 5.4 BB%, 46.5% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 73 TBF, 27.4 K%, 0.0 BB%, 52.8% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Logan Webb - +3.8% CSW%, -3.3 BB%
Spencer Strider - +2.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Dylan Cease - +2.3% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Zac Gallen - +2.5% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Joe Musgrove - +3.5% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Matt Manning - +2.6% CSW%, -3.4 BB%
Eduardo Rodriguez - +2.9% CSW%, -4.0 BB%
Kodai Senga - +4.0% CSW%, -6.2 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough - +4.9% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Clarke Schmidt - +6.9% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Hitters
It appears that Edouard Julien has figured something out, or maybe he’s just benefiting from an absurd amount of good fortune. Since July 1st:
36 PA, .531/.583/1.094, 1.677 OPS, 5 HR, 32% Brl%, 19% K%, .561 xwOBA
It’s a small sample, but he hasn’t missed many pitches lately.
For the year now:
171 PA, .318/.392/.574, 9 HR, 16.3% Brl%, 31% K%, 68% Cont%, .342 xwOBA, 51% GB%
So overall it’s a profile with a lot of power but a lot of whiffs and ground balls. The GB% is still kind of high, but the K% stuff has been improving:
I think he’s an add. He was one of these guys in the minors barreling a ton while maintaining a high contact rate - so the upside is clearly through the roof here, I’d go get him if he’s available.
Anthony Santander has also been crushing lately, and that’s good because he was drafted in most all leagues and did not have a very good first half of the season.
Decent guy to go add if he’s available and you need some power in your lineup.
Elly De La Cruz has fallen on hard times. He is just 1/25 since the All-Star Break and has a .600 OPS in July. For the year:
.280/.319/.447, 4 HR, 17 SB, 31% K%, 6% BB%, 4% Brl%, 57% GB%
It seems that the K% is going to stick right around 30%, at least for this season. That wouldn’t be a huge issue if he were able to elevate the ball when making contact - but that has been a huge issue for him as well. Major League pitchers know how to attack him - so he has some adjusting to do.
I am not saying anything about 2024 and beyond, but for right now - he might not be a fantasy starter.
Multiple Barrels
Franchy Cordero (NYY) 4 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Javier Baez (DET) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Mike Tauchman (CHC) 5 PA, 12 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Yan Gomes, Yesterday: 109.7 Previous High: 109.6
Hardest Hit Balls
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 112.5mph - double
Salvador Perez (KC) - 112.5mph - field_out
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) - 112.4mph - field_out
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 112.3mph - single
Christian Walker (ARI) - 112.0mph - double
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 112.0mph - single
Franchy Cordero (NYY) - 111.9mph - double
Sean Murphy (ATL) - 111.8mph - grounded_into_double_play
Joey Gallo (MIN) - 111.7mph - nan
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 111.6mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Byron Buxton - 67 PA, 0.228 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.112 Diff
D.J. LeMahieu - 75 PA, 0.278 wOBA, 0.347 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Elias Diaz - 60 PA, 0.17 wOBA, 0.234 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Max Muncy - 76 PA, 0.315 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 77 PA, 0.299 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Anthony Rizzo - 75 PA, 0.209 wOBA, 0.271 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Willy Adames - 93 PA, 0.321 wOBA, 0.374 xwOBA, 0.053 Diff
Ty France - 72 PA, 0.171 wOBA, 0.222 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
Luis Matos - 62 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, 0.05 Diff
Teoscar Hernandez - 85 PA, 0.261 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, 0.048 Diff
Bottom 10
Cody Bellinger - 82 PA, 0.504 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, -0.175 Diff
Luke Raley - 65 PA, 0.383 wOBA, 0.243 xwOBA, -0.14 Diff
Chas McCormick - 67 PA, 0.493 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Will Benson - 59 PA, 0.415 wOBA, 0.303 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Masataka Yoshida - 65 PA, 0.444 wOBA, 0.341 xwOBA, -0.103 Diff
Alex Kirilloff - 64 PA, 0.434 wOBA, 0.332 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Jeimer Candelario - 71 PA, 0.406 wOBA, 0.305 xwOBA, -0.101 Diff
Yandy Diaz - 66 PA, 0.407 wOBA, 0.307 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Brendan Donovan - 69 PA, 0.425 wOBA, 0.327 xwOBA, -0.098 Diff
C.J. Abrams - 76 PA, 0.393 wOBA, 0.3 xwOBA, -0.093 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Joey Gallo - 41 PA, 14 BIP, 4 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 63 PA, 35 BIP, 10 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Willson Contreras - 41 PA, 22 BIP, 6 Brls, 27.3 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 45 PA, 27 BIP, 7 Brls, 25.9 Brl%
Francisco Alvarez - 52 PA, 36 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 60 PA, 29 BIP, 7 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Jake Burger - 57 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Ryan Noda - 56 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Max Muncy - 71 PA, 41 BIP, 9 Brls, 22.0 Brl%
Joey Votto - 56 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
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