MLB Daily Notes - June 13th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
It wasn’t a huge day of baseball yesterday so I’m not going to add anything to the notes below.
I wanted to bring up the new resource I made over the weekend, it’s an Excel sheet of the next 10 days worth of probable pitchers and projected scores. It looks like this:
It goes on for the next 10 days, so you can use that to see your upcoming SP matchups or find a streamer or something. The “Proj” column is actually just an average of the last three projections I’ve made for each pitcher, it’s not an actual projection using the opponent and ballpark and stuff - but I thought it was a useful thing to add to see generally what the projection model thinks about those guys.
The link is below the paywall and in the resource glossary, so give that a bookmark if you like it.
I also wrote an extra post yesterday examing HR/FB to find over-performers and under-performers in home runs this year. Lots of stuff in there and it’s free for all, check it out here:
And now we’ll go on to the report, again - no further commentary from me today - talk to you later!
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. James Paxton (vs. COL): 26.5 Points
2. Bryce Miller (vs. MIA): 25.1 Points
3. Charlie Morton (vs. DET): 24.56 Points
4. Logan Webb (vs. STL): 21.55 Points
5. Connor Seabold (vs. BOS): 19.3 Points
6. Ken Waldichuk (vs. TB): 15.55 Points
7. James Kaprielian (vs. TB): 14.7 Points
8. Matthew Liberatore (vs. SF): 14.1 Points
9. Tyler Anderson (vs. TEX): 11.5 Points
10. Zach Eflin (vs. OAK): 10.31 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Charlie Morton (ATL): 17 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
2. Tommy Henry (ARI): 17 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
3. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 16 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
4. James Paxton (BOS): 16 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
5. Zach Eflin (TB): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
6. James Kaprielian (OAK): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
7. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 12 Whiffs (81 Pitches)
8. Bryce Miller (SEA): 12 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
9. Connor Seabold (COL): 10 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
10. Ken Waldichuk (OAK): 8 Whiffs (51 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ken Waldichuk (OAK): 60.8 Strike%, 27.5 Ball%
2. James Paxton (BOS): 56.1 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
3. Zack Greinke (KC): 51.9 Strike%, 29.6 Ball%
4. James Kaprielian (OAK): 49.5 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
5. Luke Weaver (CIN): 49.5 Strike%, 34.4 Ball%
6. Bryce Miller (SEA): 49.4 Strike%, 37.1 Ball%
7. Connor Seabold (COL): 48.9 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
8. Zach Eflin (TB): 48.9 Strike%, 38.3 Ball%
9. Tommy Henry (ARI): 48.2 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
10. Charlie Morton (ATL): 46.2 Strike%, 41.3 Ball%
11. Matt Strahm (PHI): 46.0 Strike%, 32.0 Ball%
12. Jesus Luzardo (MIA): 45.7 Strike%, 34.6 Ball%
13. Dane Dunning (TEX): 45.6 Strike%, 36.7 Ball%
14. Tyler Alexander (DET): 45.1 Strike%, 31.4 Ball%
15. Logan Webb (SF): 44.3 Strike%, 31.8 Ball%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. James Paxton - 6.0 IP - 146.0 JA Points
2. James Kaprielian - 6.0 IP - 139.0 JA Points
3. Logan Webb - 6.67 IP - 128.0 JA Points
4. Charlie Morton - 5.67 IP - 123.5 JA Points
5. Bryce Miller - 6.0 IP - 109.5 JA Points
6. Zach Eflin - 4.67 IP - 104.0 JA Points
7. Matthew Liberatore - 5.67 IP - 100.5 JA Points
8. Connor Seabold - 5.67 IP - 94.5 JA Points
9. Ken Waldichuk - 3.0 IP - 94.0 JA Points
10. Jesus Luzardo - 4.0 IP - 88.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 13.0 GS - 121.86 JA Points
2. Trevor Richards (TOR) - 1.0 GS - 119.5 JA Points
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 119.12 JA Points
4. Alex Wood (SF) - 7.0 GS - 111.4 JA Points
5. David Peterson (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 109.05 JA Points
6. Luis Castillo (SEA) - 13.0 GS - 108.64 JA Points
7. Brayan Bello (BOS) - 10.0 GS - 107.97 JA Points
8. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 14.0 GS - 107.1 JA Points
9. James Paxton (BOS) - 6.0 GS - 106.74 JA Points
10. Connor Brogdon (PHI) - 1.0 GS - 106.5 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Bryce Miller's SL velo (20 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.8
Connor Seabold's SL velo (25 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.8
Tyler Anderson's CH velo (33 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 81.2
Matthew Liberatore's SI velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 93.2
Matthew Liberatore's CH velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 86.1
Zack Greinke's SL velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 77.8
Charlie Morton's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.1mph to 84.4
Zack Greinke's CU velo (14 pitches) DOWN -3.2mph to 70.1
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Garrett Hill's SL usage (40.4%) up 12.6 points
Garrett Hill's CH usage (19.2%) up 11.5 points
James Paxton's CU usage (33.7%) up 18.0 points
Ken Waldichuk's CH usage (33.3%) up 18.0 points
Logan Webb's CH usage (47.7%) up 12.7 points
Matthew Liberatore's CH usage (12.8%) up 10.1 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Jameson Taillon Cutter: -20.9%
Yusei Kikuchi Curveball: +18.8%
Yu Darvish Sinker: +18.3%
Jameson Taillon 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
JP Sears Sweeper: -16.4%
Logan Allen Changeup: +15.7%
Matt Strahm Cutter: -15.4%
Noah Syndergaard Curveball: +14.7%
Yusei Kikuchi Changeup: -14.4%
Mike Clevinger 4-Seam Fastball: -13.8%
Sonny Gray 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
J.P. France Changeup: +13.0%
Adrian Houser Sinker: +13.0%
Tanner Houck Cutter: -13.0%
Jose Berrios 4-Seam Fastball: -12.4%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Colin Rea - 89 TBF, 34.7% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 79 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Jesus Luzardo - 86 TBF, 33.9% CSW%
James Paxton - 89 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 103 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Hunter Greene - 68 TBF, 41.2% K%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 38.0% K%
Kevin Gausman - 98 TBF, 36.7% K%
Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 36.6% K%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 35.9% K%
Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 35.1% K%
James Paxton - 89 TBF, 33.7% K%
Max Scherzer - 81 TBF, 33.3% K%
Jon Gray - 77 TBF, 32.5% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 75 TBF, 32.0% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Max Scherzer - 81 TBF, 32.1% K-BB%
Michael Kopech - 93 TBF, 31.2% K-BB%
Hunter Greene - 68 TBF, 30.9% K-BB%
Jon Gray - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Luis Castillo - 74 TBF, 29.7% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 75 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Jesus Luzardo - 86 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
James Paxton - 89 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 98 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Marcus Stroman - 110 TBF, 71.4% GB%
Zach Eflin - 94 TBF, 61.8% GB%
Hunter Brown - 72 TBF, 60.5% GB%
Logan Webb - 104 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Bryce Elder - 101 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Bobby Miller - 87 TBF, 54.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 75 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Ranger Suarez - 99 TBF, 53.4% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 106 TBF, 52.6% GB%
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 51.9% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Braxton Garrett - 82 TBF, 30.5 K%, 6.1 BB%, 51.9% GB%
Clayton Kershaw - 75 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.7 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Jesus Luzardo - 86 TBF, 30.2 K%, 3.5 BB%, 49.1% GB%
Max Scherzer - 81 TBF, 33.3 K%, 1.2 BB%, 43.4% GB%
Ryan Walker - 44 TBF, 29.5 K%, 4.5 BB%, 64.3% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Miles Mikolas - +3.7% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Michael Kopech - +2.4% CSW%, -5.0 BB%
Jesus Luzardo - +3.6% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Jon Gray - +2.6% CSW%, -5.4 BB%
Luis Castillo - +5.3% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Daniel Lynch - +2.7% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Griffin Canning - +4.0% CSW%, -7.1 BB%
Zach Davies - +4.2% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
Kyle Bradish - +3.0% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Chris Stratton - +3.3% CSW%, -1.5 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Andy Ibanez (DET) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 3 Barrels, 1 HR
Rafael Devers (BOS) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Randy Arozarena (TB) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) 6 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
New Max Launch Velos
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. J.T. Realmuto - 5.0 PA - 62.5 JA Points
2. Shohei Ohtani - 6.0 PA - 37.5 JA Points
3. Leody Taveras - 6.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
4. Ketel Marte - 5.0 PA - 30.5 JA Points
5. Patrick Bailey - 4.0 PA - 29.5 JA Points
6. Eugenio Suarez - 4.0 PA - 29.5 JA Points
7. Nick Castellanos - 5.0 PA - 28.0 JA Points
8. Zach Neto - 5.0 PA - 23.0 JA Points
9. Nick Fortes - 3.0 PA - 20.5 JA Points
10. Randy Arozarena - 4.0 PA - 20.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 297.0 PA - 21.48 JA Points
2. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 299.0 PA - 15.65 JA Points
3. Josh Naylor (CLE) - 220.0 PA - 9.09 JA Points
4. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 209.0 PA - 7.56 JA Points
5. Mookie Betts (LAD) - 289.0 PA - 1.18 JA Points
6. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 300.0 PA - -1.2 JA Points
7. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 245.0 PA - -3.67 JA Points
8. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 265.0 PA - -4.75 JA Points
9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 281.0 PA - -5.2 JA Points
10. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 265.0 PA - -8.68 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 114.1mph - home_run
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 113.3mph - double
Adam Duvall (BOS) - 112.6mph - nan
Willson Contreras (STL) - 111.7mph - field_out
Nick Castellanos (PHI) - 111.2mph - single
Jose Siri (TB) - 110.9mph - home_run
Garrett Cooper (MIA) - 110.1mph - field_out
Jordan Walker (STL) - 110.0mph - single
Michael Harris II (ATL) - 110.0mph - field_error
Elehuris Montero (COL) - 109.9mph - grounded_into_double_play
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Bobby Witt Jr. - 72 PA, 0.337 wOBA, 0.44 xwOBA, 0.103 Diff
Kyle Schwarber - 84 PA, 0.336 wOBA, 0.436 xwOBA, 0.1 Diff
Tommy Edman - 70 PA, 0.209 wOBA, 0.308 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff
Anthony Volpe - 59 PA, 0.156 wOBA, 0.253 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff
Rafael Devers - 75 PA, 0.295 wOBA, 0.392 xwOBA, 0.097 Diff
Francisco Lindor - 76 PA, 0.279 wOBA, 0.369 xwOBA, 0.09 Diff
Nolan Gorman - 68 PA, 0.215 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Trea Turner - 83 PA, 0.281 wOBA, 0.356 xwOBA, 0.075 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 84 PA, 0.306 wOBA, 0.377 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Bryce Harper - 77 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.413 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Bottom 10
Corbin Carroll - 79 PA, 0.527 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, -0.162 Diff
Jorge Soler - 73 PA, 0.462 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Bryson Stott - 76 PA, 0.338 wOBA, 0.26 xwOBA, -0.078 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 59 PA, 0.373 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Josh Naylor - 68 PA, 0.455 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, -0.074 Diff
Ty France - 75 PA, 0.435 wOBA, 0.364 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Orlando Arcia - 73 PA, 0.346 wOBA, 0.275 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Jeremy Pena - 71 PA, 0.372 wOBA, 0.301 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Spencer Steer - 84 PA, 0.411 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Luis Arraez - 78 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.071 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Trent Grisham - 61 PA, 35 BIP, 9 Brls, 25.7 Brl%
Gunnar Henderson - 52 PA, 35 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.9 Brl%
Jack Suwinski - 59 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 84 PA, 47 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.3 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 86 PA, 57 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.3 Brl%
Keibert Ruiz - 52 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%
Jorge Soler - 73 PA, 44 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Joey Wiemer - 71 PA, 40 BIP, 7 Brls, 17.5 Brl%
Ryan McMahon - 88 PA, 52 BIP, 9 Brls, 17.3 Brl%
J.D. Martinez - 73 PA, 47 BIP, 8 Brls, 17.0 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Freddie Freeman - 78 PA, 0.49 xwOBA
Mookie Betts - 82 PA, 0.448 xwOBA
Luke Raley - 50 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Bobby Witt Jr. - 72 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
Kyle Schwarber - 84 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Ryan McMahon - 88 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Gunnar Henderson - 52 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 84 PA, 0.426 xwOBA
Donovan Solano - 59 PA, 0.423 xwOBA
Corey Seager - 83 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Wander Franco - 73 PA, 112 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 78 PA, 145 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Kyle Tucker - 71 PA, 126 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 81 PA, 173 Swings, 89.6 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 73 PA, 118 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Tucupita Marcano - 52 PA, 98 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 71 PA, 119 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Willie Calhoun - 53 PA, 73 Swings, 87.7 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 51 PA, 97 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 54 PA, 112 Swings, 86.6 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Michael A. Taylor - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Christian Yelich - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Corey Julks - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Nolan Jones - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Spencer Steer - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Daulton Varsho - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 16 Attempts (13 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 14 Attempts (11 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Jake McCarthy - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Wander Franco - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Christian Yelich - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Willi Castro - 10 Attempts (10 steals)
Josh Lowe - 10 Attempts (9 steals)
Jake Fraley - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Taylor Walls - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Starling Marte - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
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