MLB Daily Notes - May 1
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
Sitting is such a delightful thing to do. You really don’t appreciate sitting down until you have multiple kids who know how to use their legs, but some days all you want to do is just sit down. But then if you have a desk job you realize that sitting has diminishing returns. It feels great at first but if you sit too long it starts to hurt you. It doesn’t hurt while you’re sitting, but once you get up you realize your back and neck are all jacked up and you should have stood up and stretched out a few more times. Such is life, there are almost inherently good or bad things - the goodness or badness of the things are all based on how we use them.
I slept well, got up early, and like every other country in the world is on holiday today, so I don’t have much to do for the real life job, so it’s going to be a good day.
I tweeted out yesterday jokingly (but not really) about wanting someone to pay me $65,000 a year to do baseball stuff. It was a joke because I know nobody is going to do that, at least nobody that I actually want to work for. I don’t want to work for a team or some other structured organization, and I don’t even really want to do anything with a full-time commitment either. I’m not leaving this Substack. I’m not joking right now when I say if an MLB team wanted to hire me to do analytics for them, I would turn them down. I pretty much have the dream right now with a well paying job with full benefits and everything that also allows me to do all of this stuff I really love, so if it ain’t broken, don’t fix it. But yeah the dream situation would be that I get some other similarly-demanding baseball-related gig that gives me the stable salary and benefits (this is almost more important now with the three kids thing). Or maybe the dream is just that this Substack grows so much that I don’t need another job… but I think that’s a bit far-fetched.
Anyways, don’t think I’m not content. I cannot believe the fun and comfort of my day-to-day life and all of the stuff I get to do and all of these people I get to talk to. It’s incredible. And I firmly believe God has set this up for me in the process of rewarding my wife for how faithful of a life she has lived and how selflessly focused she is on raising our children.
In Case You Missed It
New Starts & Sits Advice piece, which will come out every other day
Weekly Projections are running daily (projects out the next 10 days)
We have four young guys to talk about, albeit it quickly.
Tyler Black: A corner infielder that the Brewers just called up. The Brewers only have Hoskins established at 1B/3B/DH, so there should be enough playing time here for Black. You’d think he’d start everyday against righties at least, and then they’ll see what he’s able to do. The last two seasons in the minors he has hit .289/.413/.515 with a high 15% BB% and a low 17% K% while stealing 58 bases. The K% might explode and he might not hit homers at nearly the same rate, but I do feel pretty decent about him making a fantasy impact given the walks and the steals. But I think I said pretty similar things about Jackson Holliday and we saw how that went. I’m adding Black in OBP leagues, and even in deeper standard leagues, and I think for now I’d prioritize him over these next two hitters.
Jordan Beck: You get the Coors appeal here. He has hit 30 homers and stolen 25 bases over his last 688 PAs in the minors, but the K% is higher at 24%. He walks a lot as well (13%). I am pretty confident he’ll struggle with strikeouts, but the fact that he can steal bases and gets the benefits of Coors makes him someone to add in most deep leagues.
Joey Loperfido: I guess I already talked about him in the notes a couple of days ago. I’d add him behind those two, but it’s good to see that the Astros cleared out a spot for him, sending Jose Abreu to the minors. Abreu had to agree to that, of course, and shout out to him for doing so - takes a good amount of humility to realize you just can’t hang anymore and to do what’s best for your organization. Loperfido has a ton of power, but there’s absolutely no guarantee that translates to the Majors.
We’ll keep a close eye on all three of these guys. We definitely don’t want to hang on to any of these rookies too long if they’re struggling a ton the first couple of weeks (in redraft leagues), because we have seen time and time again that the adjustment needed is just too big to pull off in a short amount of time (and plenty of guys can never get there).
One more time about Paul Skenes. He threw 75 pitches and six innings yesterday and has now recorded 41 strikeouts and six walks in his six AAA outings. I am extremely confident that he will be getting the call-up in the next 10 days. He either starts for the Pirates this Sunday at home against the Rockies, or next weekend at home against the Cubs. When he does, he should be started in every fantasy league in existence. So if somehow he’s available in your league, you should go add him.
The pitcher of the day yesterday was a guy we’ve been talking a lot about here recently, Jack Flaherty. What a dominant outing he had against his former team:
6.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 14 K, 1 BB, 25.8% SwStr%, 62.4% Strike%
That was the fifth-best Strike% start in the Majors this year and fourth-best SwStr% start. He’s now up to a league-leading 30.6% K-BB%. That’s a 34% K% and a 3.4% BB% for the season.
It’s so good that I think overnight he’s gone from a buy-low to a sell-high. I’m convinced he’s much better this year than in the past, but I am certainly not believing he’s suddenly a top 10 pitcher. Not that you’ll be able to get that kind of return for him, but the value on him is blowing up fast and it’s always good to be vigilant of when that gets too high - and the days after a 14-strikeout game from a previously-mediocre pitcher can facilitate that.
Another guy making me look good this year is MacKenzie Gore. Yesterday against Texas:
5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 7 K, 1 BB, 19.8% SwStr%, 49.5% Strike%, 35.2% Ball%
That’s a very good start and now for the season he’s at a 29% K%, a 6.9% BB%, a 15.5% SwStr%, and a 35.2% Ball%. Great stuff there. He’s always had the strikeout/nastiness ability, it was just a matter of refining the command and it seems he’s done that, at least so far. He’s the #4 SP on the Automated SP Ranks:
Jared Jones
Tarik Skubal
Zack Wheeler
MacKenzie Gore
Nick Lodolo
And as far as the Player Checklist goes he has three checks:
He’s pretty close on the “SwStr+Ball MFQ” one, but the Ball% is just more good than great right now. If you have no idea what you’re looking at there and want to know, check out this podcast episode where I explain it all:
Freddy Peralta had a fine start but it would have been much better had he not been ejected in the sixth inning. So if you woke up today to see a 5.1 from Freddy and you were pissed about him, just look up that ejection to get even more pissed about it.
Reynaldo Lopez had another pretty good outing with 5 innings and a 7:2 K:BB, but he did give up three runs on six hits and took the loss.
Spencer Turnbull made his case to keep his rotation job with a 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6:0 K:BB start where he continued to get whiffs (16.3% SwStr%). It will be interesting to see what the Phillies do there with Taijuan Walker back in the fold.
Hunter Brown I guess definitely sucks now, six more earned runs on his tally and another bad 43.3% Strike% and 11.3% SwStr% to bring his season Strike% to 44%. You’d start to worry about him losing his job if the Astros rotation wasn’t so thin already, although he might just have to lose it anyways. Maybe he’s a bullpen guy for now.
That thing I mentioned in the slate preview yesterday about Logan Webb’s downside came to pass yesterday. The command wasn’t there (42.9% Ball%) and he gave up nine hits. That can happen with a pitch-to-contact pitcher, even the best pitch-to-contact pitcher in the league, and that’s why he’s a pretty good fade in DFS when the ownership is high.
Mitch Keller really stinks. He managed just five innings, giving up three runs to teh Athletics last night. The 38.5% Ball% was bad and now he’s at a 45.8% Strike%, 10.2% SwStr%, and 35.5% Ball% on the season. That’s just not good. It doesn’t look like he has any command of his fastballs, and he throws so many of them (4-Seam = 33%, Sinker = 22%, Cutter = 22%). That’s like 80% fastball usage. Why are you doing that? You have a sweeper, curveball, and changeup… use them.
Jose Berrios got through seven innings with just two runs allowed, but only five whiffs and a bad 41.3% Strike%. The Royals couldn’t really punish him much on contact, but I’d still be trying to sell Berrios while his ERA is this good.
There weren’t a ton of strikeouts yesterday, the only other two (besides Flaherty) to go above seven were Kyle Gibson and Cole Ragans, who both pitched extremely well and struck out nine. I’d say while Ragans is healthy he should be viewed as a top-ten pitcher given the current landscape of things.
April Summary
Surprisingly Good Team Offenses
Brewers (.757 OPS)
Red Sox (.741 OPS)
Diamondbacks (.724 OPS)
Guardians (.719 OPS)
Surprisingly Bad Team Offenses
Marlins (.607 OPS)
Cadrinals (.635 OPS)
Mariners (.649 OPS)
Pirates (.655 OPS)
Rays (.663 OPS)
Surprising Everyday Hitters That Didn’t Homer
Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson, Andrew Vaughn, Colt Keith, Gabriel Moreno, Gavin Lux, Chas McCormick, Wilmer Flores, Anthony Rendon
SB Attempt% Leaders
De La Cruz 64%
Caballero 62%
L Thomas 55%
Turang 45%
Siri 43%
Rafaela 43%
Benson 42%
Witt Jr. 41%
Mullins 38%
Rengifo 38%
Brl/PA Leaders
Ohtani 16.1%
Perez 14.8%
Langeliers 13.0%
Soto 12.5%
Alvarez 11.7%
Walker 11.7%
Trout 11.2%
Witt Jr. 11.1%
Adolis 11.0%
Greene 10.9%
SwStr% Leaders
Jones 21.6%
Flaherty 17.8%
Lodolo 17.4%
Skubal 16.2%
S Gray 15.9%
Wheeler 15.9%
Pepiot 15.9%
Imanaga 15.6%
Gore 15.5%
Eovaldi 15.5%
Peralta 15.4%
Ragans 15.3%
Crochet 15.3%
Wicks 15.3%
Castillo 15.1%
Five Check SPs
6+ Check Hitters
Tyler Freeman 👀
Josh Rojas 👀
Least Lucky Hitters
Brandon Nimmo
Shea Langeliers
Ty France
Yordan Alvarez (lol)
Encarnacion-Strand
Randy Seager
Matt Olson
Jack Suwinski
Luckiest Hitters
Ryan Jeffers
Isaac Paredes
Brenton Doyle
Ezequiel Tovar
Daulton Varsho
Mark Canha
Minor League Studs
AAA players - using select advanced data
Hitters:
Hunter Goodman (21.5% Brl%, 20.9% K%)
Kyle Manzardo (16.9% Brl%, 17.4% K%)
Jordan Beck (16.5% Brl%, 19.8% K%)
Griffin Conine (13.7% Brl%, 23.8% K%)
Pitchers:
Paul Skenes (40% K-BB%, 19.9% SwStr%)
Christian Scott (32% K-BB%, 14.4% SwStr%)
Jack Leiter (34% K-BB%, 18.6% SwStr%)
Cade Povich (31% K-BB%, 14.4% SwStr%)
It was a great month, here’s to five more!
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Jack Flaherty
2. MacKenzie Gore
3. Luis Castillo
4. Matt Manning
5. Sean Manaea
6. Tyler Anderson
7. Freddy Peralta
8. Reynaldo Lopez
9. Jon Gray
10. Nick Martinez
11. Brandon Hughes
12. Cole Ragans
13. Spencer Turnbull
14. Sixto Sanchez
15. Kyle Gibson
16. Yu Darvish
17. Hunter Brown
18. Nestor Cortes
19. Tyler Alexander
20. Carlos Carrasco
21. Michael Soroka
22. Ryan Feltner
23. Mitch Keller
24. Dean Kremer
25. Javier Assad
26. Landon Knack
27. Cooper Criswell
28. Steven Matz
29. Alex Wood
30. Jose Berrios
31. Simeon Woods Richardson
32. Logan Webb
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jack Flaherty (vs. STL): 41.21 Points
2. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. ATL): 31.35 Points
3. Cole Ragans (vs. TOR): 30.81 Points
4. Kyle Gibson (vs. DET): 28.15 Points
5. Freddy Peralta (vs. TB): 25.39 Points
6. Jon Gray (vs. WSH): 24.2 Points
7. Cooper Criswell (vs. SF): 21.45 Points
8. Spencer Turnbull (vs. LAA): 19.59 Points
9. Yu Darvish (vs. CIN): 19.45 Points
10. Dean Kremer (vs. NYY): 18.95 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jack Flaherty (DET): 24 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
2. Luis Castillo (SEA): 20 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 18 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
4. Sean Manaea (NYM): 16 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
5. Spencer Turnbull (PHI): 16 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
6. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 15 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
7. Matt Manning (DET): 15 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
8. Kyle Gibson (STL): 15 Whiffs (98 Pitches)
9. Cole Ragans (KC): 14 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
10. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 14 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Jack Flaherty (DET): 62.4 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
2. Matt Manning (DET): 55.1 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
3. Sixto Sanchez (MIA): 54.4 Strike%, 22.1 Ball%
4. Luis Castillo (SEA): 52.4 Strike%, 31.1 Ball%
5. Cole Ragans (KC): 51.4 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
6. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 51.1 Strike%, 31.5 Ball%
7. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL): 51.1 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
8. Yu Darvish (SD): 50.0 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
9. MacKenzie Gore (WSH): 49.5 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
10. Tyler Alexander (TB): 49.4 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
11. Jon Gray (TEX): 49.0 Strike%, 26.5 Ball%
12. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 48.5 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
13. Mitch Keller (PIT): 47.9 Strike%, 38.5 Ball%
14. Carlos Carrasco (CLE): 47.4 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%
15. Spencer Turnbull (PHI): 46.9 Strike%, 38.8 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Ryan Feltner: 89 Pitches, 23 Outs, 3.87 POUT
2. Jon Gray: 98 Pitches, 24 Outs, 4.08 POUT
3. Freddy Peralta: 66 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.12 POUT
4. Landon Knack: 64 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.27 POUT
5. Jose Berrios: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
6. Dean Kremer: 93 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.43 POUT
7. Jack Flaherty: 93 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.65 POUT
8. Yu Darvish: 70 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.67 POUT
9. Kyle Gibson: 98 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.67 POUT
10. Luis Castillo: 103 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.9 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Sixto Sanchez's SL velo (28 pitches) UP 3.1mph to 87.2
Jack Flaherty's CU velo (19 pitches) UP 2.8mph to 79.3
MacKenzie Gore's SL velo (14 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 91.4
Sixto Sanchez's CH velo (21 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 88.4
Jack Flaherty's FF velo (37 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 95.1
Jack Flaherty's SL velo (24 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.1
Tyler Alexander's FC velo (29 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 84.1
Freddy Peralta's SL velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 80.7
Javier Assad's SI velo (24 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 90.9
Javier Assad's FF velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 91.2
Carlos Carrasco's FF velo (16 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 90.7
Nick Martinez's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.6mph to 78.9
Javier Assad's FC velo (21 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 87.0
Sean Manaea's CH velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 84.6
Sean Manaea's FF velo (27 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 91.4
Reynaldo Lopez's FF velo (47 pitches) DOWN -2.2mph to 95.3
Steven Matz's CH velo (22 pitches) DOWN -2.4mph to 81.6
Reynaldo Lopez's SL velo (27 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 84.4
Sean Manaea's ST velo (10 pitches) DOWN -2.5mph to 76.2
Steven Matz's SI velo (44 pitches) DOWN -2.9mph to 91.2
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Alex Wood's SL usage (38.7%) up 10.9 points
Carlos Carrasco's SI usage (34.2%) up 22.5 points
Dean Kremer's FS usage (14.0%) up 11.5 points
Freddy Peralta's SL usage (34.8%) up 11.6 points
Hunter Brown's FC usage (14.4%) up 11.7 points
Jacob Lopez's SL usage (43.3%) up 10.6 points
Logan Webb's ST usage (19.8%) up 17.2 points
MacKenzie Gore's CH usage (15.4%) up 10.5 points
Matt Manning's ST usage (34.8%) up 27.6 points
Mitch Keller's FF usage (43.8%) up 15.7 points
Nestor Cortes's FF usage (65.2%) up 14.1 points
Sean Manaea's SI usage (23.9%) up 19.7 points
Tyler Alexander's ST usage (18.8%) up 12.0 points
Yu Darvish's SL usage (41.4%) up 23.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -26.2%
Kutter Crawford Sweeper: -20.2%
Ross Stripling 4-Seam Fastball: +16.6%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +16.1%
Tanner Houck Split-Finger: +15.7%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: +15.2%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -15.1%
Hunter Greene Slider: -14.9%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: +14.6%
Aaron Nola 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Marcus Stroman Slider: +13.7%
Cal Quantrill Split-Finger: +12.7%
Michael Soroka 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Logan Allen Sweeper: -12.3%
Yu Darvish Slider: +12.2%
Brady Singer Sinker: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 69 TBF, 37.3% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 71 TBF, 37.0% CSW%
Jared Jones - 84 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Chris Sale - 81 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 74 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Reynaldo Lopez - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 39.6% K%
Sonny Gray - 71 TBF, 38.0% K%
Zack Wheeler - 72 TBF, 36.1% K%
Pablo Lopez - 78 TBF, 35.9% K%
Garrett Crochet - 76 TBF, 34.2% K%
Freddy Peralta - 89 TBF, 33.7% K%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 33.0% K%
Luis Castillo - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 78 TBF, 30.8% K%
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