Request Player/Topic For Me to Discuss
The topic of the last couple of days for me is concerning sports betting. I started tracking my K prop recommendations on Monday to see how good they actually are.
If you don’t know, paid subscribers get access to the betting prop sheet, which compares my projections with the sports book lines every day to point out the best possible value bets. It looks like this for the K Props:
So this week, if you had bet on every pitcher that had a “DK Diff” of greater than 1 (meaning I’m projecting them for at least one whole strikeout more or less than the betting line), you would have made 16 bets and won 11 of them. With the juice, that would come out to only +3.87 units, so if you’re putting $10 on every single bet you’d have made $38.70 in these five days.
I think that’s pretty good, but I’m not sure it’ll stay in the black like that, but it’s fun to track at least. Actually, it’s freaking terrifying to track it because if now if these bets are losers I will have to admit that and then people will stop paying me for my advice, but I guess this is the proper thing to do.
The bigger topic here is about sports betting overall. I know there’s a huge market for it, and I’ve added plenty of paid subs this week since I’ve started talking more about it. So there’s a profit incentive for me here, clearly.
The problem is that I don’t really like sports betting. I think it’s a pretty bad thing for society as a whole. That’s not to say that I think everybody who does it is doing something wrong (I do it…). It’s just like anything else where the impact is based on how you use it. Everything in moderation!
It’s just a scary thought that young men now have such easy access to gambling. I remember being a dude in my low twenties and how appealing gambling and sports betting and DFS and the like were to me, but luckily it wasn’t really available to me at that time, and I was able to manage the stuff that was available to me without getting in trouble. But all these sportsbooks just mass advertising to young men in the targeted manner they do and giving them money to start up with and free bets and all that - it’s just predatory and there’s no doubt it’s bringing in a ton of young men who are going to end up in a bad place because of it.
I realize I’m not exactly standing up to the problem by offering gambling picks and stuff on here every day, but I want to do the minimum thing I can do here and just admit that I feel this way about it and to tell you all that I really don’t think any of this is a winning game. You can’t be a professional handicapper, and typically the more you bet, the more you’re going to lose. It’s a rigged game. That isn’t to say that you can’t be better at it than others, and it’s not to say we can’t be profitable if we’re really smart about it - but it’s not something I would want my own sons to be involved in - and that says a lot.
So I’ll give the best bets based on my model stuff and we’ll track things, just please don’t bet more than your like “entertainment budget” money on anything I say. Thanks for listening to my schpiel, again.
Johnny C, of JonPGH Fantasy Sports NFL fame, pointed out to me that he’s been having a lot of success betting the over 0.5 total base lines, and in fact he went 5-0 on the top bets from the sheet last night! So we’ll highlight some of those today as well.
The K Props to bet if we’re following our one-strikeout rule are in the screenshot above.
For the total base bets, the biggest differentials are below. What we do is sort by “JA Proj Hit” and then filter to only the 0.5 DraftKings lines:
The juice is crazy here, but Johnny C says it don’t matter! I like the Judge/Yepez/IKF lines the most there with the lines being further below that -200 which is gross.
As for baseball itself.
Eury Perez was quite impressive with the 18.2% SwStr%, here’s the pitch mix:
Don’t have the Stuff+ marks from Drew for the last few days so hopefully we get an update on that today or tomorrow and then we can check that out, but he was mighty impressive in that start despite a less-than-great box score result.
Spencer Strider continues to separate himself from the pack, 32 whiffs yesterday - ridiculous. He’s deGrom but with two arms.
Chris Bassitt was pretty great on the other side of that matchup with a 38-burger and 19 whiffs of his own. Remember when I was panicking about him after his spring and first start of the year? Pretty dumb of me.
Kyle Bradish had his best start of the year with six innings and six strikeouts and one walk. He gave up one unearned run and had an elite 18% SwStr%. The Pirates have been doing that for opposing pitchers, they’re hitting .184/.275/.298 this month for an OPS that is better than only the Guardians and Twins over these 12 days. I’m adding them back to the automated tweet that gives you the next 5-7 probable pitchers against the league’s worst offenses. Also, thank you to everybody who didn’t call me out on me having not cut my leg off this week after I said I would if they dropped 2 of 3 to the Rockies. I still have two legs, and I would like to go back on my word and keep them both.
Blake Snell and Dustin May faced off again and both had good starts, although the strikeouts were low. Snell has three straight quality starts now but has walked seven in his last two outings.
May had another really low SwStr% (5%), but continues to flummox hitters with the heavy downward-moving stuff he throws.
I mean those swinging-strike rates are egregiously bad and if it were anybody but May, I’d be running for the hills on him. The 45% GB% is alarming too since you’d really like that to be like 55% for a guy not getting strikeouts, but he’s given up only one homer and a .283 xwOBA. That is actually a little bit of bad news since we know that pitchers can’t fully control quality of contact, but I think May actually might be an exception just because of his wicked his stuff is (130 Stuff+).
But if you can get a different very good pitcher with strikeouts for him, do it!
Sonny Gray is an MFQ (a magic formula qualifier, from now on I’m just using that acronym and if you don’t know what it means screw you!), and pitched well again last night. He has a 33.3% K%, a 7.8% BB%, and a 64.2% GB%! That’s beautiful, I’d trade Dustin May for him right now.
The Twins have found some kind of fountain of pitching or something. Their team 18.5% K-BB% leads baseball and their 3.36 ERA is fifth-best. Neat-o!
Brent Rooker continues his insane season with two more barrels yesterday and his 11th dinger. Only six hitters have 100+ PA with a Brl/PA above 12%, and he’s one of them, in fact he leads the league in the category:
The K% didn’t stay under 20% for long but it’s at just 24% right now which is obviously perfectly fine with the power he’s bringing to the table.
It’s creeping upward, but we knew that would happen. He’s had a bad contact rate all year, but that’s actually been on the rise a bit:
It’s hard to not believe in the guy’s power right now. The downside is that he ends up with a 28% K% or so and the Brl/PA comes down because of that, but again - this dude has been mashing homers every week for a few years now, he just didn’t get the chance to do it in the Bigs last year.
Not going to blame anybody for selling high on him, in fact it’s probably a good idea if you can really get someone to bite - but I doubt anyone is going to bite since this was all so unexpected and the guy is older and on the Athletics. I’m probably just going to ride it out where I have him.
The time is now to bail on Jarren Duran, I think. He is at the top of the wOBA over-performer list with a .435 wOBA on a .289 xwOBA.
By “bail”, I don’t mean “drop”. I just mean shop him and try to get a decent return. Maybe Andres Gimenez or some other currently struggling asset.
Speaking of Gimenez, we’ll take a few of the player requests from the form that you can fill out with the button at the top of this, and then we’ll be done here.
Andrew DeSoiza asked about Andres Gimenez, and yes I have seen other people complaining about him as well. He’s slashing .231/.301/.346 with two homers and six steals. There were concerns about his power production in the profile this offseason, so that’s not super surprising that he’s struggling there. The thing we drafted him primarily for were the steals, so to only have six is a little bit disappointing given that you kind of wanted him to be a near-league-leader. His GB% is up to 52% and the Brl% is 1%. I think the homer expectations on him were too high coming into the year, but he’s much better than a 1% barrel rate, so unless he’s hurt, I think better days are coming. He still is not striking out much (19%) and the SB attempt rate has been great, so I think he’ll turn it around and be a much better fantasy contributor soon - just don’t expect many dingers.
Mike Mitchell asks Is Jesus Sanchez Breaking Out?
I haven’t seen much from Jesus Sanchez this year, I guess he’s been slipping under my radar. Looking now, he still has the power going (9.1% Brl/PA, 15.6% Brl%), but the strikeout rate is still what I would have guessed at 31%. He is walking at an above-average rate (9.1%), but the contact rate is below 70% and he has a .405 BABIP that isn’t going to stick around.
There’s nothing egregious in his swing profile with a swing rate four points above average and a chase rate right at the league average, so that’s fine - but it just seems like Sanchez is only a slightly better version of what we’ve seen from him so far. He’ll hit his homers, but the K% is a huge problem and will drive his batting average down in a hurry.
1. Chris Bassitt (vs. ATL): 37.85 Points
2. Spencer Strider (vs. TOR): 33.41 Points
3. Corbin Burnes (vs. KC): 27.9 Points
4. Sonny Gray (vs. CHC): 24.99 Points
5. Kyle Bradish (vs. PIT): 23.1 Points
6. James Paxton (vs. STL): 22.25 Points
7. J.P. France (vs. CWS): 20.61 Points
8. Drew Smyly (vs. MIN): 18.5 Points
9. Austin Gomber (vs. PHI): 18.01 Points
10. Eury Perez (vs. CIN): 16.91 Points
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 32 Whiffs (110 Pitches)
2. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 19 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. Eury Perez (MIA): 16 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
4. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 16 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
5. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 16 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
6. Austin Gomber (COL): 14 Whiffs (77 Pitches)
7. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 14 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
8. Tylor Megill (NYM): 14 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
9. Logan Allen (CLE): 13 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
10. Ken Waldichuk (OAK): 12 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
1. Spencer Strider (ATL): 29.1 SwStr%, 44.5 CSW%
2. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 18.0 SwStr%, 38.2 CSW%
3. James Paxton (BOS): 13.8 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%
4. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 18.4 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
5. Austin Gomber (COL): 18.2 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
6. Eury Perez (MIA): 18.2 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
7. Tylor Megill (NYM): 15.1 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
8. Corbin Burnes (MIL): 13.5 SwStr%, 29.8 CSW%
9. Sonny Gray (MIN): 11.7 SwStr%, 28.7 CSW%
10. Gerrit Cole (NYY): 16.8 SwStr%, 28.4 CSW%
1. Spencer Strider - 6.33 IP - 199.0 JA Points
2. Chris Bassitt - 8.67 IP - 167.0 JA Points
3. Kyle Bradish - 6.0 IP - 155.5 JA Points
4. J.P. France - 6.67 IP - 136.5 JA Points
5. Gerrit Cole - 5.0 IP - 114.0 JA Points
6. Austin Gomber - 6.33 IP - 113.0 JA Points
7. Tylor Megill - 5.0 IP - 107.0 JA Points
8. Sonny Gray - 5.33 IP - 102.5 JA Points
9. Corbin Burnes - 6.0 IP - 101.5 JA Points
10. Graham Ashcraft - 5.67 IP - 101.0 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 6.0 GS - 125.08 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 8.0 GS - 122.54 JA Points
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 119.12 JA Points
4. Brayan Bello (BOS) - 5.0 GS - 115.7 JA Points
5. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 8.0 GS - 113.97 JA Points
6. David Peterson (NYM) - 7.0 GS - 111.6 JA Points
7. Kyle Bradish (BAL) - 6.0 GS - 110.06 JA Points
8. Griffin Canning (LAA) - 5.0 GS - 108.59 JA Points
9. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 8.0 GS - 108.01 JA Points
10. Matthew Boyd (DET) - 7.0 GS - 107.29 JA Points
Taijuan Walker's ST velo (16 pitches) UP 4.0mph to 86.7
Tylor Megill's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 3.4mph to 86.4
Ryne Nelson's CH velo (18 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 84.5
Spencer Strider's SL velo (38 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.7
Gerrit Cole's CH velo (11 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.8
Adam Wainwright's SI usage (38.4%) up 35.1 points
Austin Gomber's CU usage (36.4%) up 18.0 points
Blake Snell's CH usage (26.7%) up 14.2 points
Chris Bassitt's SI usage (51.5%) up 13.6 points
Corbin Burnes's FC usage (65.4%) up 13.0 points
Kyle Bradish's SL usage (31.5%) up 10.7 points
MacKenzie Gore's FF usage (72.9%) up 11.9 points
Max Castillo's CH usage (22.5%) up 11.9 points
Sonny Gray's SI usage (31.9%) up 16.6 points
Taijuan Walker's ST usage (21.9%) up 10.1 points
Tyler Anderson's FC usage (33.3%) up 10.4 points
Tylor Megill's CU usage (21.5%) up 13.9 points
Spencer Strider - 96 TBF, 40.0% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 95 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Edward Cabrera - 82 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 75 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Jose Berrios - 77 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Rich Hill - 92 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 97 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 96 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 96 TBF, 44.8% K%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 39.8% K%
Edward Cabrera - 82 TBF, 37.8% K%
Cristian Javier - 95 TBF, 36.8% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 36.4% K%
Sonny Gray - 90 TBF, 33.3% K%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Mitch Keller - 78 TBF, 33.3% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 95 TBF, 31.6% K%
Zack Wheeler - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
Spencer Strider - 96 TBF, 40.6% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 93 TBF, 37.6% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 95 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 78 TBF, 29.5% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 108 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Sonny Gray - 90 TBF, 25.6% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 95 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 113 TBF, 24.8% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 97 TBF, 24.7% K-BB%
Alex Cobb - 110 TBF, 69.4% GB%
Brayan Bello - 87 TBF, 66.1% GB%
Sonny Gray - 90 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Logan Webb - 111 TBF, 63.3% GB%
Josh Fleming - 76 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Framber Valdez - 108 TBF, 61.6% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 113 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Zach Eflin - 90 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Shohei Ohtani - 77 TBF, 56.4% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 92 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Brent Rooker (OAK) 6 PA, 16 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ezequiel Duran (TEX) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Jake Fraley (CIN) 5 PA, 14 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Nolan Arenado (STL) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Randy Arozarena (TB) 5 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Willi Castro (MIN) 3 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Mookie Betts, Yesterday: 109.8 Previous High: 109.5
1. Nolan Arenado - 5.0 PA - 62.5 JA Points
2. Freddie Freeman - 4.0 PA - 52.5 JA Points
3. Yordan Alvarez - 5.0 PA - 42.5 JA Points
4. Cedric Mullins II - 5.0 PA - 42.5 JA Points
5. Jake Fraley - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
6. Anthony Rendon - 5.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
7. Ezequiel Duran - 5.0 PA - 40.5 JA Points
8. Freddy Fermin - 3.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
9. Amed Rosario - 5.0 PA - 28.0 JA Points
10. Esteury Ruiz - 6.0 PA - 27.0 JA Points
1. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 172.0 PA - 21.16 JA Points
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 161.0 PA - 18.51 JA Points
3. Will Smith (LAD) - 104.0 PA - 16.73 JA Points
4. Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 169.0 PA - 8.64 JA Points
5. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 171.0 PA - 8.42 JA Points
6. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 174.0 PA - 7.47 JA Points
7. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 156.0 PA - 6.41 JA Points
8. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 158.0 PA - 4.68 JA Points
9. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 161.0 PA - 0.87 JA Points
10. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 172.0 PA - -11.16 JA Points
Willi Castro (MIN) - 114.2mph - double
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 113.8mph - field_out
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 113.5mph - home_run
Juan Soto (SD) - 113.5mph - double
Sean Murphy (ATL) - 113.2mph - field_out
Willson Contreras (STL) - 112.8mph - grounded_into_double_play
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) - 112.2mph - sac_fly
Carlos Correa (MIN) - 112.1mph - nan
Joc Pederson (SF) - 112.0mph - home_run
Jose Caballero (SEA) - 111.9mph - nan
Top 10
Keibert Ruiz - 66 PA, 0.285 wOBA, 0.381 xwOBA, 0.096 Diff
Max Muncy - 62 PA, 0.314 wOBA, 0.386 xwOBA, 0.072 Diff
Xander Bogaerts - 72 PA, 0.254 wOBA, 0.324 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Myles Straw - 65 PA, 0.204 wOBA, 0.273 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Bryson Stott - 65 PA, 0.212 wOBA, 0.281 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Bobby Witt Jr. - 89 PA, 0.259 wOBA, 0.328 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 68 PA, 0.24 wOBA, 0.304 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Kyle Tucker - 73 PA, 0.284 wOBA, 0.348 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Jean Segura - 60 PA, 0.213 wOBA, 0.276 xwOBA, 0.063 Diff
Christian Yelich - 67 PA, 0.314 wOBA, 0.37 xwOBA, 0.056 Diff
Bottom 10
Jarren Duran - 69 PA, 0.435 wOBA, 0.289 xwOBA, -0.146 Diff
James Outman - 72 PA, 0.386 wOBA, 0.272 xwOBA, -0.114 Diff
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 64 PA, 0.489 wOBA, 0.377 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Corbin Carroll - 59 PA, 0.418 wOBA, 0.316 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Leody Taveras - 69 PA, 0.391 wOBA, 0.292 xwOBA, -0.099 Diff
Thairo Estrada - 79 PA, 0.371 wOBA, 0.28 xwOBA, -0.091 Diff
Anthony Santander - 76 PA, 0.417 wOBA, 0.331 xwOBA, -0.086 Diff
Christian Walker - 71 PA, 0.464 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, -0.082 Diff
TJ Friedl - 58 PA, 0.349 wOBA, 0.267 xwOBA, -0.082 Diff
Robbie Grossman - 69 PA, 0.352 wOBA, 0.271 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Randy Arozarena - 81 PA, 46 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.1 Brl%
Brandon Drury - 72 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Jesus Sanchez - 48 PA, 31 BIP, 7 Brls, 22.6 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 89 PA, 49 BIP, 11 Brls, 22.4 Brl%
Mike Trout - 81 PA, 54 BIP, 12 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Matt Chapman - 75 PA, 43 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.9 Brl%
Josh Lowe - 60 PA, 39 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.5 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 59 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 69 PA, 43 BIP, 8 Brls, 18.6 Brl%
Ryan Noda - 64 PA, 27 BIP, 5 Brls, 18.5 Brl%
Masataka Yoshida - 75 PA, 0.47 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 75 PA, 0.463 xwOBA
Jesus Sanchez - 48 PA, 0.44 xwOBA
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 74 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 59 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Triston Casas - 52 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Sean Murphy - 69 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Anthony Rendon - 72 PA, 0.428 xwOBA
Salvador Perez - 69 PA, 0.423 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 89 PA, 0.419 xwOBA
Myles Straw - 65 PA, 116 Swings, 91.4 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 69 PA, 138 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 62 PA, 113 Swings, 90.3 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 54 PA, 88 Swings, 89.8 Cont%
Will Smith - 56 PA, 85 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 83 PA, 114 Swings, 88.6 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 86 PA, 153 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 70 PA, 126 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 66 PA, 109 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 73 PA, 142 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Esteury Ruiz - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Wander Franco - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Jarren Duran - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Raimel Tapia - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Adam Frazier - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Geraldo Perdomo - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jon Berti - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Leody Taveras - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 18 Attempts (15 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 14 Attempts (11 steals)
Thairo Estrada - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Wander Franco - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 10 Attempts (5 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 10 Attempts (8 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 9 Attempts (9 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Yordan Alvarez - +12.8% Contact%, +4.8 mph exit velo, -5.6 Chase%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - +3.8% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -13.8 Chase%
Jonathan India - +5.8% Contact%, +6.9 mph exit velo, -10.1 Chase%
Mitch Haniger - +10.8% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Jurickson Profar - +7.4% Contact%, +4.3 mph exit velo, -6.8 Chase%
Nick Pratto - +11.7% Contact%, +5.9 mph exit velo, -11.5 Chase%
Michael Massey - +6.4% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -7.5 Chase%
Kevin Kiermaier - +15.2% Contact%, +4.9 mph exit velo, -17.9 Chase%
Christian Yelich - 0.401 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 82.1% Contact%, 22.3% Chase%, 10.2% K%
Dansby Swanson - 0.384 xwOBA, 16.7% Brl%, 76.2% Contact%, 22.9% Chase%, 22.7% K%
Freddie Freeman - 0.387 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 80.4% Contact%, 21.6% Chase%, 17.2% K%
Ian Happ - 0.43 xwOBA, 10.0% Brl%, 75.7% Contact%, 19.5% Chase%, 14.8% K%
Juan Soto - 0.45 xwOBA, 19.4% Brl%, 79.6% Contact%, 18.2% Chase%, 14.5% K%
Ketel Marte - 0.387 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 85.3% Contact%, 22.5% Chase%, 14.3% K%
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 0.428 xwOBA, 11.4% Brl%, 80.2% Contact%, 15.0% Chase%, 15.4% K%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 0.404 xwOBA, 12.1% Brl%, 88.6% Contact%, 18.6% Chase%, 12.8% K%
Max Kepler - 0.392 xwOBA, 16.2% Brl%, 80.0% Contact%, 22.4% Chase%, 17.9% K%
Mookie Betts - 0.393 xwOBA, 16.7% Brl%, 84.9% Contact%, 17.6% Chase%, 16.9% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.428 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 81.1% Contact%, 22.7% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Yordan Alvarez - 0.406 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 86.1% Contact%, 21.3% Chase%, 14.3% K%
Joey Gallo - 38.3% Whiff%, 88.2% Weak%, 0.985 Cold Rating
Joey Wiemer - 35.8% Whiff%, 84.0% Weak%, 0.954 Cold Rating
William Contreras - 36.9% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.92 Cold Rating
Harold Ramirez - 43.2% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.916 Cold Rating
Jorge Mateo - 35.1% Whiff%, 73.5% Weak%, 0.909 Cold Rating
Kyle Schwarber - 38.3% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.907 Cold Rating
Trent Grisham - 34.1% Whiff%, 73.9% Weak%, 0.9 Cold Rating
James Outman - 41.9% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.892 Cold Rating
Brandon Lowe - 32.2% Whiff%, 74.1% Weak%, 0.881 Cold Rating
Ryan Noda - 43.2% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.869 Cold Rating
Yunior Severino (MIN): 2/3, 3R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 36FPts
Jordan Luplow (TOR): 2/4, 2R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 36FPts
Luken Baker (STL): 3/4, 2R, 2HR, 3RBI, 0SB, 35FPts
Orelvis Martinez (TOR): 2/5, 2R, 2HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 34FPts
Victor Mesa Jr. (MIA): 2/4, 3R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 33FPts
Vidal Brujan (TB): 3/6, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1SB, 31FPts
Freddy Zamora (MIL): 3/4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1SB, 31FPts
Bennett Hostetler (MIA): 2/4, 3R, 1HR, 4RBI, 0SB, 31FPts
Tyler Fitzgerald (SF): 2/4, 2R, 1HR, 3RBI, 1SB, 30FPts
Miguel Hiraldo (TOR): 2/6, 2R, 1HR, 5RBI, 0SB, 29FPts
Tobias Myers (MIL): 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 10K, 2BB, 35FPts
Evan McKendry (TB): 7IP, 2H, 0ER, 6K, 2BB, 29FPts
Matt Andriese (LAD): 6IP, 2H, 0ER, 6K, 0BB, 28FPts
Dax Fulton (MIA): 5IP, 5H, 3ER, 9K, 1BB, 25FPts
Brent Headrick (MIN): 5IP, 3H, 1ER, 6K, 2BB, 22FPts
Alejandro Melean (TOR): 3IP, 1H, 0ER, 8K, 0BB, 22FPts
Anthony Veneziano (KC): 5IP, 3H, 0ER, 6K, 1BB, 21FPts
Will Stewart (MIA): 3IP, 0H, 0ER, 6K, 2BB, 21FPts
Jack Cushing (OAK): 6IP, 4H, 1ER, 4K, 1BB, 20FPts
Mason Montgomery (TB): 4IP, 3H, 1ER, 7K, 1BB, 20FPts
All of the really good stuff in the notes has been moved behind the paywall. For $7/month or $70/year, you will receive more detailed notes along with custom reports, dashboards, projections, and a ton more. 10% of your membership fees go directly to Samaritan’s Purse Charity.
Free samples
