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The Player Prop Comparison sheet got a massive facelift yesterday as I added BET VALUES to all of the bets there.
I explained it in a video last night, but I will re-iterate with an example here.
Here’s what the K Prop tab looks like right now:
My projections have been high on Pivetta all year… but that’s not the point. Right now my projection is 6.68 and the line is 5.5. That means my model thinks it’s pretty likely for the result to be over 5.5. The vegas over line of +130 says it’s unlikely to go over 5.5, so there is a big disparity there. The .222 you see there says that the difference my model’s projection of how likely the over is to hit is 22.2 points above what the Vegas line implies. So my model might be saying it’s a 68% chance to hit, and the Vegas line is saying it’s at 46%. That’s how you interpret that.
Doing it this way lets us compare all different types of bets to see where the best values are, that is shown in the “All Bet Values” tab:
You get a free look at it today, but for full access to the sheet you will have to become a paid member!
Yesterday, the K props were quite good going 4-1 at the top of the sheet, but the total base recommendations weren’t so good and overall it was a losing night for me. But it will be fun to track and see which bet types seem to do better and worse. For me, this really isn’t about making money - it’s more of just trying to solve a puzzle.
The three big standout SPs yesterday were Michael Wacha, Jack Flaherty, and Charlie Morton.
Wacha has had a weird season
He’s popped for double-digit strikeouts twice now, one against the Braves and once against the Royals. All-in-all he’s been pretty mediocre with a 22.3% K% and a 6.5% BB% to go with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.
Charlie Morton continues to get it done with a 2.85 ERA on a 1.37 WHIP this season. His 24% K% is down from what we’re used to and the walks are still up there above the league average at 8.7%. But he has a 16.4% SwStr% and a 29.9% K% over his last three starts, so maybe he’s rounding into shape. He’s a ticking time bomb, it would seem, but the bomb is still in tact and he’s been good for fantasy purposes this year.
As for Jack Flaherty, I think we all just wish he would pick a lane. He struck out 10 last night with two walks and didn’t give up a run over seven three-hit innings. A beautiful start for the man and that brought his K% up to 24% for the year. He still has an awful 14.4% BB% and can just obliterate your fantasy team any time he takes the hill, but all-in-all, I think you’d have to say he’s been better than most of us thought he would be.
Grayson Rodriguez had another bad start and now sits with a 25.9% K%, a 10.0% BB%, a 12% SwStr%, and a .359 xwOBA. I am surprised at how low the K% and SwStr% since he was supposed to have wipeout stuff. It’s not surprising when a rookie pitcher walks a lot of guys and gives up some homers, but we were promised elite stuff from Grayson, and it doesn’t seem to be the case!
I don’t think you drop him in deeper leagues or anything, but he is frustrating and has had more bad starts than good ones at this point.
Alek Manoah has been awful and there’s not much for redeeming qualities in the profile. Here’s me showing off my own tweet!
I didn’t want to be one of the dudes overreacting in April to some bad starts, but at this point, I think it’s probably time to cut bait.
Merrill Kelly shows up below with a 26.3% K-BB% over the last three weeks, that’s 10th best in the league. The people that drafted him as a boring but decent innings-eater are profiting pretty big off the season he’s put up so far.
We’re also seeing Kyle Bradish in the top ten of the JA ranking algorithm and in the hot pitcher tracker. He has a 20.9% K% and an 8.7% BB% for the season, which sucks, but over the last three outings he has a 15% SwStr%, a 23% K%, and a 6% BB%. He has 15 and 16 whiffs in his last two starts against the Braves and Pirates, and has kept the walks to just one or two in five of his six starts - so he might end up with a pretty good season after all.
Shifting to hitters, Brenton Doyle had a double-barrel game. He has four homers and a 19% Brl% in 51 PAs, but the K% is up at 31% and he doesn’t walk much (6%) and the contact rate is low at 71%. He’s posted strikeout rates above 30% at every level of the last three seasons:
So I guess he wasn’t really worth bringing up, no reason to roster him right now outside of Rockies-only leagues.
Esteury Ruiz is going to run away with the SB crown this year if he stays healthy. He has 19 attempts in the last 30 days, five more than the second-place hitter Ji Hwan Bae.
Ruiz has 19 steals this season, but Acuna is right behind him with 17 steals - so there’s some competition I guess. Here are your highest SB Attempt Rates so far this year:
Bae 62.1%
Mateo 57.7%
Ruiz 45.8%
Chisholm Jr. 44.4%
Witt Jr. 43.8%
Franco 39.0%
Merrifield 36.1%
Marte 35.0%
Volpe 33.3%
Capel 31.8%
MJ Melendez is coming around in recent weeks, dropping the K% and raising the Contact%:
Not sure if any leagues saw him get dropped while he was struggling, but he’s looking good now so I would think he should easily be viewed as a top-10 catcher moving forward. Tons of raw power there and plays every day.
One more guy to mention is Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is on the super ultra mega hot hitters with a .453 xwOBA and an 89% Contact% with just a 13% K% over the last two weeks. He’s hitting .309/.371/.537 this year with six homers, quite good!
1. Michael Wacha (vs. KC): 40.55 Points
2. Jack Flaherty (vs. MIL): 36.75 Points
3. Charlie Morton (vs. TEX): 34.21 Points
4. Merrill Kelly (vs. OAK): 32.75 Points
5. George Kirby (vs. BOS): 23.61 Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (vs. BAL): 16.15 Points
7. Phil Bickford (vs. MIN): 15.75 Points
8. Jhony Brito (vs. TOR): 14.39 Points
9. Noah Syndergaard (vs. MIN): 12.6 Points
10. Jeff Hoffman (vs. SF): 12.5 Points
1. Charlie Morton (ATL): 23 Whiffs (106 Pitches)
2. Michael Wacha (SD): 18 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 17 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
4. Jack Flaherty (STL): 17 Whiffs (105 Pitches)
5. Hunter Greene (CIN): 15 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
6. Tanner Houck (BOS): 15 Whiffs (75 Pitches)
7. Alex Wood (SF): 14 Whiffs (72 Pitches)
8. Pablo Lopez (MIN): 11 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
9. Framber Valdez (HOU): 11 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
10. David Peterson (NYM): 10 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
1. Alex Wood (SF): 19.4 SwStr%, 41.7 CSW%
2. Charlie Morton (ATL): 21.7 SwStr%, 38.7 CSW%
3. Jack Flaherty (STL): 16.2 SwStr%, 37.1 CSW%
4. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 17.5 SwStr%, 36.1 CSW%
5. Noah Syndergaard (LAD): 16.9 SwStr%, 35.6 CSW%
6. Tanner Houck (BOS): 20.0 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
7. George Kirby (SEA): 8.2 SwStr%, 32.0 CSW%
8. Shohei Ohtani (LAA): 10.2 SwStr%, 30.6 CSW%
9. Michael Wacha (SD): 17.5 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
10. Framber Valdez (HOU): 12.1 SwStr%, 29.7 CSW%
1. Merrill Kelly - 7.0 IP - 174.0 JA Points
2. Charlie Morton - 6.67 IP - 174.0 JA Points
3. Jack Flaherty - 7.0 IP - 162.5 JA Points
4. George Kirby - 6.33 IP - 149.5 JA Points
5. Michael Wacha - 7.0 IP - 134.5 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani - 7.0 IP - 116.5 JA Points
7. Alex Wood - 4.67 IP - 113.0 JA Points
8. Pablo Lopez - 4.67 IP - 111.0 JA Points
9. Jhony Brito - 5.33 IP - 111.0 JA Points
10. Tanner Houck - 5.0 IP - 103.0 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 6.0 GS - 125.08 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 8.0 GS - 122.54 JA Points
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 119.12 JA Points
4. Brayan Bello (BOS) - 5.0 GS - 115.7 JA Points
5. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 9.0 GS - 111.3 JA Points
6. Kyle Bradish (BAL) - 6.0 GS - 110.06 JA Points
7. Connor Brogdon (PHI) - 1.0 GS - 109.23 JA Points
8. David Peterson (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 109.05 JA Points
9. Griffin Canning (LAA) - 5.0 GS - 108.59 JA Points
10. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 8.0 GS - 108.01 JA Points
Grayson Rodriguez's FF velo (32 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 97.8
Noah Syndergaard's CU velo (10 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 78.5
Brad Keller's CU velo (17 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 83.5
Jhony Brito's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.3
Jack Flaherty's CH velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 84.9
Drew Rucinski's SI velo (26 pitches) DOWN -2.0mph to 87.7
Alex Wood's CH usage (29.2%) up 12.5 points
Brad Keller's SL usage (41.5%) up 12.0 points
Brad Keller's CH usage (14.9%) up 12.5 points
Connor Seabold's SL usage (43.8%) up 13.2 points
Framber Valdez's FC usage (26.4%) up 12.6 points
Jameson Taillon's SI usage (25.0%) up 11.0 points
Merrill Kelly's SL usage (16.5%) up 12.3 points
Noah Syndergaard's CU usage (16.9%) up 12.0 points
Shohei Ohtani's FC usage (27.6%) up 18.9 points
Spencer Strider - 69 TBF, 37.8% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 72 TBF, 35.0% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 104 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 103 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 74 TBF, 34.3% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 104 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Julio Urias - 99 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Rich Hill - 69 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Cristian Javier - 72 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Kevin Gausman - 69 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 69 TBF, 43.5% K%
Kevin Gausman - 69 TBF, 37.7% K%
Mitch Keller - 104 TBF, 37.5% K%
Cristian Javier - 72 TBF, 34.7% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 72 TBF, 33.3% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 104 TBF, 31.7% K%
Charlie Morton - 103 TBF, 31.1% K%
Framber Valdez - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Zac Gallen - 100 TBF, 31.0% K%
Chris Sale - 78 TBF, 30.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 69 TBF, 37.7% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 69 TBF, 34.8% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 104 TBF, 34.6% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 72 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 100 TBF, 28.0% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 74 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 100 TBF, 27.0% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Merrill Kelly - 99 TBF, 26.3% K-BB%
Alex Cobb - 77 TBF, 68.4% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 88 TBF, 63.3% GB%
Josh Fleming - 76 TBF, 62.3% GB%
Bryce Elder - 92 TBF, 61.8% GB%
Logan Webb - 113 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Hunter Brown - 90 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Kodai Senga - 69 TBF, 57.1% GB%
Framber Valdez - 100 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Drew Rasmussen - 92 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Patrick Sandoval - 104 TBF, 55.4% GB%
Aaron Judge (NYY) 4 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Brenton Doyle (COL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Cal Raleigh (SEA) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Jorge Polanco (MIN) 6 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Kyle Tucker (HOU) 4 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Max Muncy (LAD) 5 PA, 18 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Orlando Arcia (ATL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Trevor Larnach (MIN) 5 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
1. Brenton Doyle - 4.0 PA - 44.5 JA Points
2. C.J. Abrams - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
3. Cal Raleigh - 5.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
4. Jeff McNeil - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
5. Orlando Arcia - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
6. Aaron Judge - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
7. Shohei Ohtani - 6.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
8. Chad Wallach - 5.0 PA - 34.5 JA Points
9. Trevor Larnach - 5.0 PA - 30.0 JA Points
10. Max Muncy - 5.0 PA - 28.5 JA Points
1. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 185.0 PA - 25.41 JA Points
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 174.0 PA - 22.87 JA Points
3. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 186.0 PA - 8.28 JA Points
4. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 167.0 PA - 4.55 JA Points
5. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 167.0 PA - 3.47 JA Points
6. Will Smith (LAD) - 114.0 PA - 3.16 JA Points
7. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 186.0 PA - 1.83 JA Points
8. Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 183.0 PA - -1.09 JA Points
9. Salvador Perez (KC) - 158.0 PA - -7.85 JA Points
10. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 169.0 PA - -9.47 JA Points
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 116.1mph - home_run
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 115.1mph - double
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 114.9mph - home_run
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 114.6mph - home_run
Matt Olson (ATL) - 112.6mph - double
Trevor Larnach (MIN) - 112.0mph - home_run
Stone Garrett (WSH) - 111.9mph - nan
Hunter Renfroe (LAA) - 111.5mph - nan
Byron Buxton (MIN) - 111.5mph - single
Jorge Polanco (MIN) - 111.2mph - double
Top 10
Keibert Ruiz - 67 PA, 0.277 wOBA, 0.404 xwOBA, 0.127 Diff
Josh Bell - 68 PA, 0.304 wOBA, 0.38 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff
Kyle Tucker - 72 PA, 0.256 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Bryson Stott - 76 PA, 0.217 wOBA, 0.277 xwOBA, 0.06 Diff
Mitch Haniger - 59 PA, 0.23 wOBA, 0.289 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Eugenio Suarez - 83 PA, 0.277 wOBA, 0.335 xwOBA, 0.058 Diff
Willy Adames - 75 PA, 0.231 wOBA, 0.285 xwOBA, 0.054 Diff
Xander Bogaerts - 75 PA, 0.265 wOBA, 0.318 xwOBA, 0.053 Diff
Alex Bregman - 75 PA, 0.245 wOBA, 0.297 xwOBA, 0.052 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 75 PA, 0.264 wOBA, 0.315 xwOBA, 0.051 Diff
Bottom 10
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 64 PA, 0.527 wOBA, 0.403 xwOBA, -0.124 Diff
Andres Gimenez - 60 PA, 0.29 wOBA, 0.182 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Jarren Duran - 69 PA, 0.427 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, -0.105 Diff
Thairo Estrada - 80 PA, 0.361 wOBA, 0.271 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Eddie Rosario - 58 PA, 0.382 wOBA, 0.293 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff
Robbie Grossman - 74 PA, 0.334 wOBA, 0.25 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff
J.T. Realmuto - 57 PA, 0.413 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff
James Outman - 71 PA, 0.3 wOBA, 0.216 xwOBA, -0.084 Diff
Isaac Paredes - 60 PA, 0.403 wOBA, 0.322 xwOBA, -0.081 Diff
Will Smith - 66 PA, 0.436 wOBA, 0.36 xwOBA, -0.076 Diff
Josh Lowe - 57 PA, 34 BIP, 8 Brls, 23.5 Brl%
Luke Raley - 48 PA, 30 BIP, 7 Brls, 23.3 Brl%
Trevor Larnach - 48 PA, 22 BIP, 5 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 71 PA, 51 BIP, 11 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Randy Arozarena - 77 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 60 PA, 25 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Brenton Doyle - 47 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Cal Raleigh - 63 PA, 36 BIP, 7 Brls, 19.4 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 49 PA, 37 BIP, 7 Brls, 18.9 Brl%
Jose Siri - 47 PA, 27 BIP, 5 Brls, 18.5 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 77 PA, 0.473 xwOBA
Salvador Perez - 67 PA, 0.462 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 49 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Anthony Rendon - 66 PA, 0.438 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 71 PA, 0.427 xwOBA
Luis Robert - 68 PA, 0.421 xwOBA
Masataka Yoshida - 70 PA, 0.415 xwOBA
Adley Rutschman - 80 PA, 0.414 xwOBA
Josh Lowe - 57 PA, 0.414 xwOBA
Bo Bichette - 81 PA, 0.413 xwOBA
Luis Arraez - 69 PA, 125 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 51 PA, 90 Swings, 91.1 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 60 PA, 115 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 47 PA, 81 Swings, 90.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 76 PA, 130 Swings, 90.0 Cont%
Myles Straw - 58 PA, 107 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 67 PA, 109 Swings, 89.0 Cont%
Adley Rutschman - 80 PA, 107 Swings, 88.8 Cont%
Will Smith - 66 PA, 104 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Wander Franco - 79 PA, 143 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Wander Franco - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 6 Attempts (4 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 5 Attempts (3 steals)
Ryan McMahon - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Leody Taveras - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Jonathan India - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Christian Yelich - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 19 Attempts (16 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 14 Attempts (10 steals)
Thairo Estrada - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Wander Franco - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 11 Attempts (11 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 11 Attempts (10 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 8 Attempts (4 steals)
Jeremy Pena - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Michael Conforto - +8.7% Contact%, +3.8 mph exit velo, -3.9 Chase%
MJ Melendez - +6.6% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Yordan Alvarez - +12.3% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -9.6 Chase%
Jurickson Profar - +8.2% Contact%, +6.9 mph exit velo, -13.1 Chase%
Amed Rosario - +11.3% Contact%, +3.0 mph exit velo, -9.1 Chase%
Christian Yelich - 0.485 xwOBA, 17.1% Brl%, 84.9% Contact%, 22.0% Chase%, 13.5% K%
Juan Soto - 0.436 xwOBA, 17.5% Brl%, 82.5% Contact%, 19.0% Chase%, 13.8% K%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 0.453 xwOBA, 16.1% Brl%, 89.2% Contact%, 15.6% Chase%, 13.0% K%
Mookie Betts - 0.412 xwOBA, 16.7% Brl%, 83.9% Contact%, 18.2% Chase%, 15.3% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.45 xwOBA, 15.9% Brl%, 83.9% Contact%, 21.6% Chase%, 14.5% K%
Yandy Diaz - 0.399 xwOBA, 10.8% Brl%, 84.2% Contact%, 19.8% Chase%, 14.5% K%
Yordan Alvarez - 0.416 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 84.0% Contact%, 18.6% Chase%, 15.1% K%
Jorge Mateo - 36.6% Whiff%, 82.8% Weak%, 0.975 Cold Rating
Joey Wiemer - 35.0% Whiff%, 92.0% Weak%, 0.969 Cold Rating
James Outman - 39.7% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.958 Cold Rating
Kyle Schwarber - 39.5% Whiff%, 72.0% Weak%, 0.924 Cold Rating
Ryan Noda - 38.0% Whiff%, 72.7% Weak%, 0.922 Cold Rating
Joey Gallo - 37.9% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.922 Cold Rating
William Contreras - 33.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.904 Cold Rating
Trent Grisham - 33.3% Whiff%, 73.7% Weak%, 0.884 Cold Rating
Francisco Alvarez - 32.8% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.857 Cold Rating
Tyler Stephenson - 34.8% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.849 Cold Rating
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