.
Request Player/Topic For Me to Discuss
Last call to submit some stuff ^ for the podcast this afternoon - I’ll be answering the questions in there.
Luis Castillo has proven to be one of the better picks of the draft this year as a guy who went in tier 2 or tier 3 of the SPs, and he’s been incredible. 2.97 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 28.3% K%, 5.6% BB%. He’s been great, and shout out to you for having him if you do.
Tommy Henry had his highest whiff count of the year with 18 whiffs. That’s his second-straight start with double-digit whiffs and a SwStr% above 15%. That has coincided with heightened changeup use:
I don’t think Henry is anyone to care about for fantasy, but it’s always interesting to see improved performance with a distinct pitch mix change.
Gavin Stone took his lumps against the Braves, but he did post a nice 17.7% SwStr%. Here is the data on him for his two outings:
He’s throwing more balls than strikes, which is a massive problem, but if he does start throwing some more strikes there’s certainly some upside there with the changeup and slider being very tough to hit, it seems.
I wouldn’t get too excited about Luis Ortiz’s start for the Pirates last night as he handled the Rangers nicely.
He still had a well below-average Strike% (league average 46.5%) and he had another below-average SwStr%. It was better, but still not good - I don’t think the guy is a Major Leaguer right now.
The only other pitchers in the league with 3+ GS and a Strike% below 40% are
Luis Cessa 39.7%
Jose Urena 39.7%
Chad Kuhl 39.4%
Carlos Carrasco 39.2%
Austin Gomber 39.2%
Madison Bumgarner 38.9%
Luis L. Ortiz 38.7%
Drew Rucinski 36.3%
Kodai Senga takes the hill tonight and that will be interesting to see if he can keep up his improved recent form. Over the last three weeks, he is fourth in the league with a 32.9% K%. Here are his stats by month:
April: 27.4% K%, 15.4% BB%, 45.5% Strike%, 39.7% Ball%
May: 32.9% K%, 11.4% BB%, 46.0% Strike%, 41.0% Ball%
So the ball rate actually hasn’t changed. The league average on that stat is 36%, so he’s above that - but he’s made up for it with a bunch of strikeouts and a lowered (but still pretty bad) walk rate. If he really is a 33% K% - 11% BB% guy, that’ll work great - but more likely he’ll be around 29%-12% and that’s not so good.
Fantastic start for Tanner Houck last night we can’t miss that. Six innings, one run, eight strikeouts, one walk. His season so far:
It’s all pretty MEH, but the SwStr% is nice and the ball rate is better than average. That rotation continues to be interesting with Garrett Whitlock coming back this weekend. It looks like this right now:
Locked in while healthy: Sale, Paxton
Probably not going anywhere: Kluber
Battling for the rest: Whitlock, Bello, Houck
Unless they really want to do a six-man rotation, somebody is going to have to go next week. Houck and Whitlock both pitched in the bullpen last year, so I would think they’d be more likely to end up back in the bullpen with Houck being the more likely guy in my eyes, but this great start last night helps his case. Keep an eye out for now. Bello gets the next go at it tonight against the Angels, so it’ll be fun to see what he pulls out after a start last time with seven strikeouts and five walks.
Nolan Gorman has recovered from his strikeout scare there. You can get pretty deep into the data with him, but for now we can just point out that his strikeout rate is on the downslope again:
We loved it in mid-April when it was in the low-twenties, but then I thought he was going the way of the birds in late April as it climbed near 30%, but now we’re back down under 25% so that’s great. His barrel rate has stayed really strong all season long:
I regret my decision to trade him for Blake Snell, and I take back the mean things I said about trade partner Paul a few weeks back.
Josh Jung is also hitting the ball well and the contact rate is coming up:
He’s above 70% now but the K% is still at 30%. That might actually be okay with his raw power, and we could also see that dip down a few more points soon with the improving contact rates.
One more hitter to mention - Spencer Torkelson. He is one of 15 hitters with 150+ PA, a Brl% above 9%, and a K% under 20%.
You’d think some better production has to be coming for him. You can see he’s last on the list there with just four homers. It’s also good news for him that Detroit isn’t the pitcher’s paradise it used to be.
Torkelson would seem to be a good buy-low candidate.
Onto the rest of the report, thanks for being here!
1. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. OAK): 29.9 Points
2. Sean Manaea (vs. MIN): 24.66 Points
3. Tanner Houck (vs. LAA): 24.5 Points
4. Hunter Gaddis (vs. CWS): 23.7 Points
5. Cristian Javier (vs. MIL): 22.5 Points
6. Jaime Barria (vs. BOS): 22.05 Points
7. Luis Ortiz - 682847 (vs. TEX): 21.06 Points
8. Tommy Henry (vs. PHI): 19.16 Points
9. Edward Cabrera (vs. COL): 15.9 Points
10. Josh Fleming (vs. TOR): 13.9 Points
1. Luis Castillo (SEA): 22 Whiffs (101 Pitches)
2. Tommy Henry (ARI): 18 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
3. Tanner Houck (BOS): 17 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
4. Gavin Stone (LAD): 14 Whiffs (79 Pitches)
5. Sean Manaea (SF): 14 Whiffs (83 Pitches)
6. Cristian Javier (HOU): 14 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
7. Jordan Montgomery (STL): 13 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
8. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
9. Hunter Gaddis (CLE): 13 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
10. Michael Lorenzen (DET): 12 Whiffs (85 Pitches)
1. Tanner Houck (BOS): 20.5 SwStr%, 41.0 CSW%
2. Luis Castillo (SEA): 21.8 SwStr%, 37.6 CSW%
3. Sean Manaea (SF): 16.9 SwStr%, 37.3 CSW%
4. Jaime Barria (LAA): 18.8 SwStr%, 35.9 CSW%
5. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 13.8 SwStr%, 34.0 CSW%
6. Michael Lorenzen (DET): 14.1 SwStr%, 32.9 CSW%
7. Charlie Morton (ATL): 12.1 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
8. Cristian Javier (HOU): 14.6 SwStr%, 30.2 CSW%
9. Tommy Henry (ARI): 19.4 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
10. Gavin Stone (LAD): 17.7 SwStr%, 29.1 CSW%
1. Tanner Houck - 6.0 IP - 154.0 JA Points
2. Chris Bassitt - 6.0 IP - 133.0 JA Points
3. Luis Castillo - 6.0 IP - 133.0 JA Points
4. Cristian Javier - 6.0 IP - 125.5 JA Points
5. Josh Fleming - 6.0 IP - 109.5 JA Points
6. Tommy Henry - 5.67 IP - 108.5 JA Points
7. Zack Wheeler - 6.0 IP - 105.0 JA Points
8. Jaime Barria - 5.0 IP - 103.5 JA Points
9. Hunter Gaddis - 6.0 IP - 102.0 JA Points
10. Sean Manaea - 3.67 IP - 100.0 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 6.0 GS - 125.08 JA Points
2. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 9.0 GS - 121.72 JA Points
3. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 119.12 JA Points
4. Brayan Bello (BOS) - 6.0 GS - 115.75 JA Points
5. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 10.0 GS - 109.43 JA Points
6. David Peterson (NYM) - 8.0 GS - 109.05 JA Points
7. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) - 10.0 GS - 107.63 JA Points
8. Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 10.0 GS - 107.53 JA Points
9. Connor Brogdon (PHI) - 1.0 GS - 107.04 JA Points
10. Taylor Clarke (KC) - 1.0 GS - 106.64 JA Points
Luis Castillo's CH velo (27 pitches) UP 2.2mph to 89.9
Luis Castillo's FF velo (41 pitches) UP 2.1mph to 97.6
Brady Singer's SL velo (40 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 85.7
Brandon Williamson's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 82.4
Cristian Javier's SL velo (31 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 80.7
Corbin Burnes's SL velo (12 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 89.0
Bailey Ober's CH usage (36.8%) up 15.3 points
Chase Anderson's FF usage (40.0%) up 12.5 points
Edward Cabrera's FF usage (37.1%) up 10.9 points
Hunter Gaddis's FF usage (61.7%) up 23.9 points
Jaime Barria's CH usage (34.4%) up 20.2 points
Jesse Scholtens's FF usage (43.3%) up 12.4 points
Jordan Montgomery's CH usage (44.3%) up 24.7 points
Luis Castillo's CH usage (26.7%) up 10.7 points
Michael Lorenzen's FF usage (50.6%) up 16.1 points
Sean Manaea's FF usage (61.4%) up 17.7 points
Tommy Henry's CH usage (30.1%) up 11.0 points
Zack Wheeler's SL usage (28.7%) up 12.8 points
Shohei Ohtani - 100 TBF, 36.3% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 76 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 97 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Braxton Garrett - 93 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 88 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 102 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Shane Bieber - 112 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 104 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 97 TBF, 32.5% CSW%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 76 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Mitch Keller - 102 TBF, 36.3% K%
Framber Valdez - 102 TBF, 34.3% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 100 TBF, 34.0% K%
Chris Sale - 80 TBF, 33.8% K%
Kodai Senga - 70 TBF, 32.9% K%
Zach Eflin - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Joe Ryan - 94 TBF, 31.9% K%
Cristian Javier - 91 TBF, 31.9% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 88 TBF, 31.8% K%
Logan Gilbert - 93 TBF, 31.2% K%
Mitch Keller - 102 TBF, 34.3% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 102 TBF, 30.4% K-BB%
Chris Sale - 80 TBF, 30.0% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 97 TBF, 29.9% K-BB%
Joe Ryan - 94 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Shohei Ohtani - 100 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 93 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Merrill Kelly - 95 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 91 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
Edward Cabrera - 81 TBF, 23.5% K-BB%
Alex Cobb - 75 TBF, 67.3% GB%
Brayan Bello - 71 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Josh Fleming - 96 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 108 TBF, 63.6% GB%
Andrew Heaney - 97 TBF, 57.4% GB%
Framber Valdez - 102 TBF, 56.5% GB%
Bryce Elder - 92 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Nathan Eovaldi - 86 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Merrill Kelly - 95 TBF, 55.7% GB%
Mitch Keller - 102 TBF, 55.7% GB%
J.D. Martinez (LAD) 5 PA, 13 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
MJ Melendez (KC) 4 PA, 9 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Will Smith (LAD) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) 5 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Trea Turner, Yesterday: 114.0 Previous High: 113.1
1. Yordan Alvarez - 5.0 PA - 55.0 JA Points
2. J.D. Martinez - 5.0 PA - 54.5 JA Points
3. Eddie Rosario - 4.0 PA - 45.5 JA Points
4. Whit Merrifield - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
5. Miguel Rojas - 4.0 PA - 39.5 JA Points
6. Jurickson Profar - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 4.0 PA - 30.0 JA Points
8. Josh Jung - 4.0 PA - 27.0 JA Points
9. Will Smith - 5.0 PA - 26.5 JA Points
10. Kyle Schwarber - 4.0 PA - 25.5 JA Points
1. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 212.0 PA - 20.38 JA Points
2. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 219.0 PA - 7.21 JA Points
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 197.0 PA - 3.86 JA Points
4. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 194.0 PA - 3.4 JA Points
5. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 218.0 PA - 3.3 JA Points
6. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 180.0 PA - -0.22 JA Points
7. Will Smith (LAD) - 138.0 PA - -3.91 JA Points
8. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 162.0 PA - -4.94 JA Points
9. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 177.0 PA - -4.97 JA Points
10. Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 203.0 PA - -9.66 JA Points
Trea Turner (PHI) - 114.0mph - nan
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 112.9mph - home_run
Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 112.0mph - home_run
Javier Baez (DET) - 111.4mph - double
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 111.1mph - double
Austin Riley (ATL) - 110.8mph - double
Shea Langeliers (OAK) - 110.7mph - double
Jonathan India (CIN) - 110.3mph - double
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 110.3mph - single
Mickey Moniak (LAA) - 110.2mph - home_run
Top 10
Brendan Donovan - 63 PA, 0.259 wOBA, 0.378 xwOBA, 0.119 Diff
Andy Ibanez - 63 PA, 0.265 wOBA, 0.38 xwOBA, 0.115 Diff
Keibert Ruiz - 58 PA, 0.241 wOBA, 0.35 xwOBA, 0.109 Diff
Miguel Rojas - 58 PA, 0.273 wOBA, 0.365 xwOBA, 0.092 Diff
Cal Raleigh - 60 PA, 0.322 wOBA, 0.41 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Brett Baty - 59 PA, 0.294 wOBA, 0.382 xwOBA, 0.088 Diff
Bryan Reynolds - 78 PA, 0.3 wOBA, 0.384 xwOBA, 0.084 Diff
Mitch Haniger - 56 PA, 0.188 wOBA, 0.264 xwOBA, 0.076 Diff
Pete Alonso - 75 PA, 0.353 wOBA, 0.424 xwOBA, 0.071 Diff
Tyrone Taylor - 59 PA, 0.21 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, 0.069 Diff
Bottom 10
Isaac Paredes - 62 PA, 0.368 wOBA, 0.256 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Kevin Kiermaier - 58 PA, 0.445 wOBA, 0.341 xwOBA, -0.104 Diff
Nolan Gorman - 62 PA, 0.531 wOBA, 0.429 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 73 PA, 0.544 wOBA, 0.444 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Esteury Ruiz - 93 PA, 0.361 wOBA, 0.261 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Dominic Fletcher - 74 PA, 0.376 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, -0.097 Diff
Seiya Suzuki - 70 PA, 0.42 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Cedric Mullins II - 81 PA, 0.419 wOBA, 0.329 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Joey Meneses - 69 PA, 0.357 wOBA, 0.268 xwOBA, -0.089 Diff
Luis Robert - 79 PA, 0.501 wOBA, 0.416 xwOBA, -0.085 Diff
Aaron Judge - 55 PA, 31 BIP, 14 Brls, 45.2 Brl%
Christopher Morel - 47 PA, 28 BIP, 8 Brls, 28.6 Brl%
Jose Siri - 52 PA, 33 BIP, 8 Brls, 24.2 Brl%
Matt Olson - 81 PA, 44 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.7 Brl%
Triston Casas - 55 PA, 36 BIP, 8 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 76 PA, 56 BIP, 12 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Jake Bauers - 48 PA, 24 BIP, 5 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Salvador Perez - 75 PA, 53 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Patrick Wisdom - 51 PA, 20 BIP, 4 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 82 PA, 60 BIP, 12 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 55 PA, 0.587 xwOBA
Yordan Alvarez - 76 PA, 0.486 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 82 PA, 0.484 xwOBA
Triston Casas - 55 PA, 0.455 xwOBA
Christian Yelich - 69 PA, 0.447 xwOBA
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 73 PA, 0.444 xwOBA
Ezequiel Duran - 74 PA, 0.443 xwOBA
Christopher Morel - 47 PA, 0.439 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 64 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Nolan Gorman - 62 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Luis Arraez - 75 PA, 136 Swings, 94.1 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 78 PA, 126 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 77 PA, 112 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 73 PA, 112 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Myles Straw - 63 PA, 104 Swings, 88.5 Cont%
Masataka Yoshida - 71 PA, 109 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Mark Canha - 51 PA, 84 Swings, 88.1 Cont%
Wander Franco - 85 PA, 142 Swings, 88.0 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 62 PA, 115 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Brendan Donovan - 63 PA, 110 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Esteury Ruiz - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Brice Turang - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Tommy Edman - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jake Fraley - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Josh Lowe - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jose Caballero - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Willi Castro - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Harrison Bader - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
George Springer - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Paul Goldschmidt - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Wander Franco - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Starling Marte - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Taylor Walls - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Luke Raley - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Oscar Mercado - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 22 Attempts (19 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 13 Attempts (9 steals)
Wander Franco - 13 Attempts (11 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 11 Attempts (11 steals)
Thairo Estrada - 10 Attempts (7 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Taylor Walls - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
J.T. Realmuto - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Brenton Doyle - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Jon Berti - 7 Attempts (3 steals)
Josh Lowe - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Leody Taveras - 7 Attempts (5 steals)
Mookie Betts - +6.1% Contact%, +5.0 mph exit velo, -11.4 Chase%
J.D. Martinez - +7.9% Contact%, +4.0 mph exit velo, -5.0 Chase%
Austin Riley - +7.7% Contact%, +4.7 mph exit velo, -5.9 Chase%
Josh Jung - +3.2% Contact%, +9.7 mph exit velo, -11.3 Chase%
Matt Vierling - +10.5% Contact%, +5.3 mph exit velo, -6.0 Chase%
Bryan Reynolds - 0.41 xwOBA, 13.5% Brl%, 76.0% Contact%, 24.8% Chase%, 19.2% K%
Freddie Freeman - 0.433 xwOBA, 18.8% Brl%, 82.0% Contact%, 21.3% Chase%, 14.3% K%
Juan Soto - 0.447 xwOBA, 15.2% Brl%, 81.1% Contact%, 19.2% Chase%, 18.0% K%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 0.407 xwOBA, 12.2% Brl%, 89.4% Contact%, 22.6% Chase%, 14.8% K%
Michael Conforto - 0.396 xwOBA, 13.2% Brl%, 83.3% Contact%, 22.5% Chase%, 13.7% K%
Mookie Betts - 0.468 xwOBA, 18.2% Brl%, 86.4% Contact%, 12.3% Chase%, 11.7% K%
Pete Alonso - 0.448 xwOBA, 25.0% Brl%, 78.6% Contact%, 22.8% Chase%, 15.4% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.534 xwOBA, 22.0% Brl%, 84.4% Contact%, 23.2% Chase%, 13.0% K%
Spencer Torkelson - 0.389 xwOBA, 13.9% Brl%, 83.9% Contact%, 19.6% Chase%, 17.3% K%
Yordan Alvarez - 0.532 xwOBA, 26.2% Brl%, 79.1% Contact%, 22.0% Chase%, 14.3% K%
James Outman - 37.4% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.969 Cold Rating
Wil Myers - 36.1% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.944 Cold Rating
Trent Grisham - 33.9% Whiff%, 78.9% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Michael Harris II - 32.5% Whiff%, 83.9% Weak%, 0.914 Cold Rating
Christian Walker - 32.3% Whiff%, 79.3% Weak%, 0.9 Cold Rating
Matt Thaiss - 37.3% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.9 Cold Rating
William Contreras - 31.5% Whiff%, 80.0% Weak%, 0.89 Cold Rating
Francisco Alvarez - 33.8% Whiff%, 73.1% Weak%, 0.879 Cold Rating
Willy Adames - 35.2% Whiff%, 69.0% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
Randy Arozarena - 32.6% Whiff%, 73.3% Weak%, 0.866 Cold Rating
All of the really good stuff in the notes has been moved behind the paywall. For $7/month or $70/year, you will receive more detailed notes along with custom reports, dashboards, projections, and a ton more. 10% of your membership fees go directly to Samaritan’s Purse Charity.
Free samples
