MLB Daily Notes - May 2nd
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
New ERA vs. WHIP Scatter Plot on the MLB & MiLB Stats Dashboard!
We have four pitchers with a sub-1.50 ERA across 5+ starts, here they are with their SIERA in [brackets]:
Shota Imanaga 0.78 [3.13]
Ranger Suarez 1.32 [2.41]
Spencer Turnbull 1.39 [3.20]
Jose Berrios 1.44 [4.32]
Reynaldo Lopez 1.50 [3.56]
Imanaga has really come on the scene hot. He now has allowed just three earned runs in 34.2 innings with a 35:4 K:BB. He’s won five of his six starts (the only one he didn’t win was a four-inning rain-shortened outing against the Dodgers), and he’s surrendered just two homers. Nothing under the hood would tell you he’s been overly lucky:
15.9% SwStr%, 31.5% Ball%, 23.5% K-BB%, 49.6% Strike%
Those are elite numbers across the board, so he would certainly seem to be a very good pitcher. The .220 BABIP is very low, so there’s some room for regression there. He’s also given up two homers on his 31 fly balls, a 6% HR/FB, and that should move in the upward direction as well. But I’m not giving you much useful information here by telling you he won’t maintain a friggin sub-1 ERA.
I consider him a great sell-high option, but not in the sense that you must trade him by the weekend. Given how many injures we’ve seen, there just aren’t a ton of really great arms left, so Imanaga is probably top-20 almost by default. I can’t think of a clear one-for-one swap I’d do for Imanaga. What I would be looking to do is swap him for a “lesser” pitcher (by the current perception at least) and then get another good player coming back to you. Say, swap him for Bryce Miller and a hitter that fills a big need for you.
Chris Sale was your top algo rank of the day.
5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 9 K, 0 BB, 21% SwStr%, 59% Strike%, 29% Ball%
Crazy good start there for Sale, who has been everything you desired him to be when you drafted him. He has a 24.1% K-BB% on the year and the whiffs are still elite at 15.6% SwStr%, and hey he’s even getting more ground balls this year (51%).
I also consider him a sell-high with the injury questions. 13 innings in 2022 and 109 last year. Seems a bit too optimistic to think he can get to 170 this year. It could happen, but it would seem wise to take a deal where you get a more reliable ace pitcher or stud hitter back for him right now while he’s pitching like a top-ten starter.
Joe Musgrove was also great:
6 IP, 2 ER, 9 K, 0 BB
He has looked a lot better in his last three starts.
First 5: 12.2% SwStr%, 43.3% Strike%, 38.2% Ball%, 8% K-BB%
Last 3: 14.1% SwStr%, 48.9% Strike%, 33.7% Ball%, 20.9% K-BB%
Good for you if you held on to Musgrove or acquired him on the cheap, he seems to have found the command with just a 3% BB% in these last three outings.
Jose Butto is holding on to his job for dear life. He put up another solid outing:
6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 6 K, 2 BB, 15.8% SwStr%, 44.2% Strike%, 40% Ball%
That’s a pretty awful Strike/Ball combo, but plenty of whiffs and a great result.
I do wonder how much teams look at the stuff I look at. Are they evaluating outings with SwStr% and Ball% and stuff in mind? That’s interesting to me. Maybe they have even better ways of doing it.
But anyways, Butto is the man holding back Christian Scott. Scott is the Mets top pitching prospect and probably second to only Paul Skenes in terms of fantasy pitcher prospects to add this year. He’s down in AAA with 25.1 innings under his belt and a pristine 38.3% K% an 6.4% BB%. That is the second-best AAA K-BB% this year (to Skenes). He is 24 and has never had trouble with minor league hitters, so I would think he should be arriving soon.
Quintana, Severino, and Manaea have those jobs locked in, and the other two there are the aforementioned Butto and Adrian Houser. Houser is probably their worst pitcher with an 8.37 ERA, a 1.90 WHIP, and a 1.8% K-BB% so far - so maybe he’s the guy that they pull for Scott - although I think they’d have to DFA him, he doesn’t seem like much of a bullpen arm to me. I don’t know what I’m saying, I just want Christian Scott to come up because I’ve stashed him in multiple leagues.
Luis Gil beat Corbin Burnes with 6.2 shutout innings, and he only walked one guy! I’m not sure if he changed something on purpose or not, but the SwStr% was way down to 9.5%, and the Ball% was still bad at 38.9%. When I saw that he shut the Orioles out I assumed he just had a lucky control day and dominated them, but that’s not really what happened. Weird pitcher.
I actually played him on my single DraftKings lineup last night, so those 26 points had me convinced I was heading to the money, but then this really weird stuff happened:
Trevor Williams vs. TEX: 5 IP, 0 R, 3 K, 4 BB
Triston McKenzie vs. HOU: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 6 K, 1 BB
Trevor Williams stranded like a bajillion base runners, and I guess McKenzie isn’t hurt after all?
McKenzie:
First 3: 13 IP, 9 ER, 5 K, 12 BB, 2 HR, 8% K%, 19% BB%
Last 3: 16 IP, 5 ER, 19 K, 6 BB, 2 HR, 29% K%, 9% BB%
I thought the slow start was due to injury, but I guess it was just due to… a slow start. I suppose he’s a pitcher you want to have now, the 20% K-BB% in these last three starts kind of makes me say that, but I do have to admit that I’m mad at McKenzie now for making me look stupid.
Verlander once again:
7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, 8.2% SwStr%, 40% Ball%
Bad SwStr%, Strike%, and Ball% numbers, but it didn’t matter. Verlander has defied the metrics for a long time, so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised here.
Either he has amazing command and knowledge of pitching, or the league hitter’s have just been paid off to dog it against him so he doesn’t have a bad end to his Hall of Fame career. I’m going with the second one.
Quinn Priester had a quality start but it actually sucked pretty horribly against the Athletics:
6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 K, 4 BB
As many balls (39.2%) as strikes (39.2%0, a really bad 10.3% SwStr% against a really bad lineup, and more walks than strikeouts. So yeah we’re back off Priester - sorry about that if you got excited, although you did get a quality start out of it.
How about this Roddery Munoz fellow. He’s a 24—year-old pitcher who has been with three different organizations. Let’s look at the history:
So that is a career 23.9% K% and 12% BB% in the minors with a 5.63 ERA. You certainly wouldn’t expect much in the Majors given that, but he’s off to a hot start this year:
He had a good 14.6% SwStr% and 32.9% Ball% last night. Pitch mix on the season:
I would be a bit interested if it weren’t for the mediocre past. Given those minor league numbers and the lack of prospect hype, it will take a few more starts of this kind of stuff to convince me at all - but it’s possible he’s just a much better pitcher this year. 24 is not old at all, so we’ll keep an eye on him, but I wouldn’t want to start him next time out.
I was thinking of adding a thing here where every day I give you a hitter to add. It will be mostly focused on deeper leagues, and most days it will be not be like “you need to go get this guy right now!” Just a hitter with some surprisingly good numbers that is widely available.
Yesterday’s was Josh Rojas, and I gave that out on Twitter:
For today, let’s take Alex Kirilloff. Two things Kirilloff has a lot of in his past:
Prospect hype
Injuries
Back in 2021-2022, we were really excited to get Kirilloff in the bigs. Since 2021 in the minors he slashed .359/.455/.659 with an elite 14 PA/HR and 18% K%. His Major League career has been mediocre at .260/.321/.426 with a 33 PA/HR and a 23.5% K%, but I think most of that time has been without full health. This year the OPS is up to .794 and the K% is down to 22%, although he’s homered just twice despite the decent 9% Brl%.
Nothing is fantastic on the savant page:
But he’s hitting the ball hard this year as you can see, and that’s a good sign for his health. The reason for the lack of homers is probably his low pull rate. He’s at just 33.3%, and the league average is 37%. He’s been below 34% every year of his career, so he’s just not really a guy going up there looking to pull dingers.
But he’s probably a top 20 first baseman right now, and that works in plenty of leagues.
“Starts & Sits” is rolling, this will come out every other day, here’s todays:
Just a very quick look at the next two days worth of probable pitchers and my quick categorizations of all of them.
And that will do it for today’s daily notes, it’s a light day of baseball so I think I’ll take the day off from the slate previews and DFS and whatnot. Tootaloo.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Chris Sale
2. Shota Imanaga
3. Joe Musgrove
4. Jose Butto
5. Erik Miller
6. Roddery Munoz
7. Corbin Burnes
8. Zach Eflin
9. Triston McKenzie
10. Kutter Crawford
11. Ross Stripling
12. Emerson Hancock
13. Kenta Maeda
14. Luis Gil
15. Zack Wheeler
16. Patrick Sandoval
17. Bailey Ober
18. Chris Bassitt
19. Colin Rea
20. Andrew Heaney
21. Graham Ashcraft
22. Quinn Priester
23. Seth Lugo
24. Trevor Williams
25. Justin Verlander
26. Dakota Hudson
27. Miles Mikolas
28. Chris Flexen
29. Jordan Montgomery
####Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Seth Lugo (vs. TOR): 31.35 Points
2. Shota Imanaga (vs. NYM): 31.35 Points
3. Chris Sale (vs. SEA): 27.65 Points
4. Roddery Munoz (vs. COL): 26.5 Points
5. Luis Gil (vs. BAL): 26.44 Points
6. Joe Musgrove (vs. CIN): 25.1 Points
7. Kutter Crawford (vs. SF): 24.15 Points
8. Colin Rea (vs. TB): 23.9 Points
9. Patrick Sandoval (vs. PHI): 23.65 Points
10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (vs. ARI): 23.3 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Sale (ATL): 21 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
2. Jose Butto (NYM): 15 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
3. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 15 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
4. Joe Musgrove (SD): 14 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
5. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 14 Whiffs (95 Pitches)
6. Zach Eflin (TB): 13 Whiffs (88 Pitches)
7. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 13 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
8. Triston McKenzie (CLE): 13 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
9. Roddery Munoz (MIA): 12 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
10. Kutter Crawford (BOS): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Sale (ATL): 59.0 Strike%, 29.0 Ball%
2. Joe Musgrove (SD): 54.0 Strike%, 32.2 Ball%
3. Patrick Sandoval (LAA): 52.9 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%
4. Roddery Munoz (MIA): 50.0 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
5. Zack Wheeler (PHI): 49.1 Strike%, 36.8 Ball%
6. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): 48.9 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
7. Corbin Burnes (BAL): 48.4 Strike%, 35.8 Ball%
8. Shota Imanaga (CHC): 48.3 Strike%, 33.3 Ball%
9. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 47.8 Strike%, 32.6 Ball%
10. Ross Stripling (OAK): 46.8 Strike%, 26.6 Ball%
11. Kenta Maeda (DET): 46.8 Strike%, 34.2 Ball%
12. Miles Mikolas (STL): 46.5 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%
13. Seth Lugo (KC): 46.5 Strike%, 38.6 Ball%
14. Colin Rea (MIL): 46.5 Strike%, 35.4 Ball%
15. Bailey Ober (MIN): 46.3 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Andrew Heaney: 74 Pitches, 21 Outs, 3.52 POUT
2. Shota Imanaga: 87 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.14 POUT
3. Triston McKenzie: 90 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.29 POUT
4. Kutter Crawford: 92 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.38 POUT
5. Ross Stripling: 79 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.39 POUT
6. Kenta Maeda: 79 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.39 POUT
7. Bailey Ober: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
8. Roddery Munoz: 82 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.56 POUT
9. Dakota Hudson: 78 Pitches, 17 Outs, 4.59 POUT
10. Seth Lugo: 101 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.81 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Chris Bassitt's FC velo (12 pitches) UP 2.6mph to 90.7
Chris Bassitt's SI velo (33 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 93.9
Jordan Montgomery's FF velo (15 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 91.7
Patrick Sandoval's CU velo (11 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 75.0
Quinn Priester's CH velo (19 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 87.3
Jordan Montgomery's SI velo (23 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 91.4
Emerson Hancock's SL velo (19 pitches) DOWN -3.4mph to 81.8
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Bailey Ober's FC usage (28.0%) up 23.7 points
Chris Flexen's SL usage (22.8%) up 15.4 points
Dakota Hudson's CH usage (17.9%) up 13.1 points
Jordan Montgomery's FF usage (23.8%) up 13.1 points
Jose Butto's SI usage (23.2%) up 11.0 points
Kutter Crawford's FC usage (47.8%) up 17.2 points
Quinn Priester's CU usage (25.8%) up 11.2 points
Seth Lugo's SV usage (11.9%) up 11.1 points
Trevor Williams's ST usage (17.7%) up 12.5 points
Triston McKenzie's CU usage (38.9%) up 18.0 points
Zach Eflin's FC usage (36.4%) up 10.9 points
Zack Wheeler's FC usage (16.0%) up 14.0 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -26.2%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -20.5%
Shota Imanaga 4-Seam Fastball: -16.2%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +16.1%
Tanner Houck Split-Finger: +15.7%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +15.3%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: +15.1%
Garrett Crochet Slider: -15.1%
Hunter Greene Slider: -14.9%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: +14.6%
Aaron Nola 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Ryan Weathers 4-Seam Fastball: -13.9%
Marcus Stroman Slider: +13.7%
Cal Quantrill Split-Finger: +12.7%
Michael Soroka 4-Seam Fastball: -12.6%
Kutter Crawford Cutter: +12.4%
Logan Allen Sweeper: -12.3%
Yu Darvish Slider: +12.2%
Brady Singer Sinker: +12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 96 TBF, 38.5% CSW%
Sonny Gray - 71 TBF, 37.0% CSW%
Chris Sale - 103 TBF, 35.8% CSW%
Jared Jones - 84 TBF, 35.5% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 93 TBF, 35.2% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 97 TBF, 34.9% CSW%
Nick Lodolo - 94 TBF, 34.8% CSW%
Zack Littell - 77 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Reynaldo Lopez - 70 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 88 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
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