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Jon Gray had his first good start of the year and man, that was quite a turnaround.
Yesterday: 36% CSW%, 22.5% SwStr%, 32% K%, 0% BB%.
Before yesterday: 27% CSW%, 10.3% SwStr%, 14.5% K%, 10.7% BB%
His best pitch is the slider, and he maxed out its usage yesterday:
For the year the slider has still been quite good with an 18.2% SwStr% and a 54% GB%, but the fastball has been beaten up with an 8.3% SwStr% and a 15% Brl%. I think there are better days ahead for Gray, and this was good to see.
We also see this below in the notes:
Jon Gray's SL velo (36 pitches) UP 4.1mph to 87.5
That’s quite a change, and it will be something interesting to track moving forward.
The other standout SP performance was Mitch Keller, who went for a rare complete-game shutout against the Rockies.
Getting the Rockies on the road is one of the best matchups you can have, but Keller took full advantage. We can’t really nitpick about matchup when a dude goes nine innings, four hits, eight strikeouts, one walk.
We can nitpick a little bit about his continued below-average SwStr%. He got just a 10.7% SwStr% yesterday and he’s at 11.1% for the year. That said, his CSW% is at a better 30.5% and the K% is up at 28%. He’s getting a lot of called strikes and he’s one of these guys throwing the three fastball variations pretty much equally.
This is a bit of speculation, but I imagine that a high called strike rate and a pitch mix that features three fastball variations are correlated.
That’s just a beautiful pitch mix. Don’t get me wrong, I would really like for the SwStr% to be a couple of points higher, but there’s more than one way to skin a cat and Keller has been skinning a lot of cats this year.
Don’t be fooled by the good start from Jake Irvin, he had just a 5.4% SwStr% and a 13% BB% with the 22% K% from yesterday. The CSW% was 22.8%, which is very bad. Just a random outing there, and I don’t think Irvin is ready for the Bigs based on the two starts we’ve seen.
Dylan Cease is struggling. He started the year well, giving up just five earned runs in his first 24 innings. But his last four starts have been bad with 20 earned runs in 18 innings.
For the year:
» 25.9% K%
» 10.6% BB%
» 5.58 ERA
» 1.51 WHIP
» 27.3% CSW%
» 12.9% SwStr%
» 113 Stuff+
Cease is pretty similar to Alcantara in that he was overpriced after last season where his ERA was very lucky. He had a high walk rate last year, and he has a high walk rate this year. The bad news is with the K% and SwStr% being way down, I didn’t see that coming. Chances are he’ll rebound here and the K% will be on the way up soon, but it’s important to note that losses in K% hurt more with a bad BB%, and we know that Cease is very likely to have a bad BB% this year. I’d be a bit concerned about him, but it’s not like you can trade him for a good return right now so I guess you just need to hold on and ride it out.
Tony Gonsolin saw his velocity tick up on all of his pitches, you’ll see that below - so that’s a good sign that he’s getting back to full strength.
Braxton Garrett clearly reconsidered his life after getting blasted for 11 earnies by the Braves last week.
He said to hell with his four-seamer, changeup, and curveball, and threw cutters, sliders, and sinkers yesterday, with the cutter going up to a season-high 34% usage.
He didn’t do great in the box score, giving up four more earned runs, but the SwStr% was good at 13.8% and he limited it to just one walk. He’s still struggling overall with a 19% K% and an 11.3% SwStr%, so I guess he’s not really someone to roster in shallow leagues - but he is a guy with the raw talent to go on some really good runs.
Zac Gallen has 64 strikeouts and six walks this year. That’s a 31% K-BB%. If you take away his first start (cause why not), he has a 34.3% K% and a 1.8% BB% for a 32.5% K-BB%. That’s ridiculous. What a stud.
On the hitting side, Andy Ibanez has quietly gone for a .333/.357/.556 line in 28 PAs. He has a 13.6% Brl% and a 17.9% K%. He’s one of these guys that have turned the Tigers’ offense around in the last week or so. Zach McKinstry has also been good, here’s a look at that Tigers’ offense for the year:
Ibanez is 30 and McKinstry is 28, so it’s not like these are budding prospects. We probably don’t need to pay them much attention in fantasy, but they’re at least short-term adds in very deep leagues.
It really does look like the changes that they made to Comerica Park have made a big difference for hitters. Here are some numbers on that.
HR/FB
DET: 16.5%
League Average: 15.2%
HR/Brl
DET: 61.5%
League Average: 47.8%
SLG on FB
DET: .843
League Average: .798
I think we’re far enough into the season to say those are real indicators, so that’s good news for hitters in Detroit.
Let’s look at some good and bad hitters of the last two weeks before we hit publish.
OPS Leaders
OPS Losers
Plenty of interesting names on the list of losers.
As always, the general rule here is that short-term data only means something when you want it to mean something. If you have a guy on the losers list, don’t worry - small sample size. If you have a guy on the leaders list - hell yeah he’s a total stud now.
On to the normal report, I put all the best stuff behind the paywall again.
1. Mitch Keller (vs. COL): 37.25 Points
2. Jon Gray (vs. SEA): 31.35 Points
3. Logan Gilbert (vs. TEX): 28.61 Points
4. Zac Gallen (vs. MIA): 28.15 Points
5. Shane McClanahan (vs. BAL): 26.70 Points
6. Jake Irvin (vs. SF): 24.0425 Points
7. Tony Gonsolin (vs. MIL): 23.7 Points
8. Freddy Peralta (vs. LAD): 22.5 Points
9. Joey Wentz (vs. CLE): 19.1575 Points
10. Marcus Stroman (vs. STL): 18.5 Points
1. Jon Gray (TEX): 20 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
2. Freddy Peralta (MIL): 14 Whiffs (94 Pitches)
3. Marcus Stroman (CHC): 14 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
4. Kyle Gibson (BAL): 13 Whiffs (93 Pitches)
5. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 12 Whiffs (87 Pitches)
6. JP Sears (OAK): 12 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
7. Dylan Cease (CWS): 12 Whiffs (97 Pitches)
8. Shane McClanahan (TB): 12 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
9. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 12 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
10. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 11 Whiffs (80 Pitches)
1. Jon Gray (TEX): 22.5 SwStr%, 36.0 CSW%
2. Tony Gonsolin (LAD): 13.8 SwStr%, 32.5 CSW%
3. JP Sears (OAK): 16.4 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
4. Marcus Stroman (CHC): 15.7 SwStr%, 31.5 CSW%
5. Zac Gallen (ARI): 12.2 SwStr%, 31.1 CSW%
6. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 13.8 SwStr%, 31.0 CSW%
7. Logan Gilbert (SEA): 13.2 SwStr%, 30.8 CSW%
8. Mitch Keller (PIT): 10.7 SwStr%, 30.1 CSW%
9. Miles Mikolas (STL): 5.2 SwStr%, 29.2 CSW%
10. Joey Wentz (DET): 7.6 SwStr%, 27.2 CSW%
1. Mitch Keller - 9.0 IP - 150.0 JA Points
2. Jon Gray - 7.0 IP - 138.5 JA Points
3. Logan Gilbert - 6.67 IP - 125.5 JA Points
4. Zac Gallen - 7.0 IP - 123.5 JA Points
5. Freddy Peralta - 6.0 IP - 121.5 JA Points
6. Braxton Garrett - 5.33 IP - 121.5 JA Points
7. Tony Gonsolin - 6.0 IP - 121.0 JA Points
8. Marcus Stroman - 6.0 IP - 112.5 JA Points
9. Shane McClanahan - 6.0 IP - 102.0 JA Points
10. Kyle Gibson - 6.0 IP - 94.5 JA Points
1. Jacob deGrom (TEX) - 6.0 GS - 125.08 JA Points
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 119.12 JA Points
3. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 7.0 GS - 117.06 JA Points
4. Trevor Rogers (MIA) - 4.0 GS - 114.76 JA Points
5. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 8.0 GS - 113.97 JA Points
6. Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 7.0 GS - 110.83 JA Points
7. Jesus Luzardo (MIA) - 7.0 GS - 110.2 JA Points
8. Taylor Clarke (KC) - 1.0 GS - 110.0 JA Points
9. Hunter Greene (CIN) - 7.0 GS - 109.05 JA Points
10. Josiah Gray (WSH) - 7.0 GS - 107.96 JA Points
Jon Gray's SL velo (36 pitches) UP 4.1mph to 87.5
Joey Wentz's FC velo (26 pitches) UP 3.2mph to 88.4
Kyle Gibson's CH velo (30 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 86.4
Tony Gonsolin's CU velo (14 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 82.0
Kyle Freeland's FF velo (13 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 90.5
Kyle Gibson's ST velo (11 pitches) UP 1.9mph to 82.9
Kyle Gibson's FC velo (19 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 90.8
Tony Gonsolin's FF velo (22 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 93.2
Tony Gonsolin's FS velo (28 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 84.1
Tony Gonsolin's SL velo (16 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 87.5
Anthony DeSclafani's CH velo (13 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.8
Braxton Garrett's FC usage (34.5%) up 32.2 points
Dylan Cease's FF usage (49.5%) up 11.6 points
Hunter Brown's FF usage (47.4%) up 16.0 points
JP Sears's ST usage (42.5%) up 11.1 points
Jake Irvin's SI usage (23.9%) up 10.3 points
Jon Gray's SL usage (40.4%) up 10.4 points
Kyle Gibson's CH usage (32.3%) up 14.1 points
Marcus Stroman's FF usage (20.2%) up 12.0 points
Mitch Keller's FF usage (35.0%) up 10.5 points
Nestor Cortes's FF usage (60.7%) up 12.7 points
Shane McClanahan's SL usage (26.5%) up 14.2 points
Zac Gallen's FF usage (60.0%) up 17.9 points
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 38.2% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Clayton Kershaw - 96 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Rich Hill - 75 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 75 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Luke Weaver - 73 TBF, 33.2% CSW%
Yu Darvish - 72 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 71 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Hunter Greene - 72 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 TBF, 45.1% K%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 43.5% K%
Kevin Gausman - 72 TBF, 38.9% K%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 38.3% K%
Edward Cabrera - 91 TBF, 37.4% K%
Shane McClanahan - 93 TBF, 33.3% K%
Logan Gilbert - 92 TBF, 32.6% K%
Cristian Javier - 74 TBF, 32.4% K%
Clayton Kershaw - 96 TBF, 32.3% K%
Hunter Greene - 72 TBF, 31.9% K%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 TBF, 38.0% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 94 TBF, 37.2% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 92 TBF, 37.0% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 72 TBF, 36.1% K-BB%
Logan Gilbert - 92 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Eduardo Rodriguez - 97 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 102 TBF, 26.5% K-BB%
Clayton Kershaw - 96 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Cristian Javier - 74 TBF, 25.7% K-BB%
Edward Cabrera - 91 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
Framber Valdez - 79 TBF, 66.7% GB%
Max Fried - 71 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Alex Cobb - 105 TBF, 64.5% GB%
Bryce Elder - 95 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Sonny Gray - 94 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Josh Fleming - 72 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Logan Webb - 81 TBF, 59.6% GB%
Brad Keller - 89 TBF, 56.7% GB%
Jake Woodford - 73 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 81 TBF, 54.7% GB%
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) 3 PA, 3 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Joc Pederson (SF) 4 PA, 10 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Christian Walker, Yesterday: 114.3 Previous High: 112.6
Gleyber Torres, Yesterday: 111.7 Previous High: 111.6
Josh Lowe, Yesterday: 113.3 Previous High: 111.8
Willson Contreras, Yesterday: 117.5 Previous High: 116.2
1. Andy Ibanez - 4.0 PA - 40.0 JA Points
2. Jesus Sanchez - 3.0 PA - 39.5 JA Points
3. Joc Pederson - 4.0 PA - 32.0 JA Points
4. Rodolfo Castro - 3.0 PA - 24.5 JA Points
5. Chris Taylor - 1.0 PA - 23.5 JA Points
6. Emmanuel Rivera - 5.0 PA - 22.0 JA Points
7. Willson Contreras - 4.0 PA - 22.0 JA Points
8. Alex Bregman - 4.0 PA - 21.0 JA Points
9. Luke Raley - 4.0 PA - 21.0 JA Points
10. Bryan Reynolds - 4.0 PA - 19.5 JA Points
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 148.0 PA - 37.03 JA Points
2. Bo Bichette (TOR) - 159.0 PA - 24.15 JA Points
3. Matt Chapman (TOR) - 144.0 PA - 19.31 JA Points
4. Will Smith (LAD) - 90.0 PA - 10.0 JA Points
5. Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 158.0 PA - 9.37 JA Points
6. Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 146.0 PA - 6.85 JA Points
7. Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) - 152.0 PA - 6.84 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 142.0 PA - 4.65 JA Points
9. Jarred Kelenic (SEA) - 130.0 PA - -1.85 JA Points
10. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 158.0 PA - -3.54 JA Points
Willson Contreras (STL) - 117.5mph - field_out
Christian Walker (ARI) - 114.3mph - home_run
Josh Lowe (TB) - 113.3mph - home_run
Ketel Marte (ARI) - 112.3mph - single
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 112.2mph - double
Mike Trout (LAA) - 112.2mph - field_out
Gleyber Torres (NYY) - 111.7mph - home_run
Alek Thomas (ARI) - 110.9mph - single
Pavin Smith (ARI) - 110.7mph - single
Jesus Sanchez (MIA) - 110.5mph - field_out
Top 10
Keibert Ruiz - 70 PA, 0.287 wOBA, 0.386 xwOBA, 0.099 Diff
Kyle Tucker - 72 PA, 0.282 wOBA, 0.362 xwOBA, 0.08 Diff
Jose Abreu - 72 PA, 0.236 wOBA, 0.309 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Myles Straw - 67 PA, 0.193 wOBA, 0.266 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Triston Casas - 58 PA, 0.324 wOBA, 0.397 xwOBA, 0.073 Diff
Adley Rutschman - 82 PA, 0.273 wOBA, 0.34 xwOBA, 0.067 Diff
Nolan Arenado - 72 PA, 0.183 wOBA, 0.248 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 69 PA, 0.259 wOBA, 0.323 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 70 PA, 0.395 wOBA, 0.457 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
George Springer - 74 PA, 0.224 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, 0.062 Diff
Bottom 10
Cody Bellinger - 74 PA, 0.404 wOBA, 0.279 xwOBA, -0.125 Diff
Jarren Duran - 76 PA, 0.44 wOBA, 0.318 xwOBA, -0.122 Diff
Corbin Carroll - 61 PA, 0.45 wOBA, 0.337 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Thairo Estrada - 81 PA, 0.395 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
James Outman - 81 PA, 0.376 wOBA, 0.269 xwOBA, -0.107 Diff
Yandy Diaz - 75 PA, 0.51 wOBA, 0.41 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 66 PA, 0.466 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Eric Haase - 60 PA, 0.405 wOBA, 0.311 xwOBA, -0.094 Diff
Leody Taveras - 61 PA, 0.418 wOBA, 0.326 xwOBA, -0.092 Diff
C.J. Abrams - 63 PA, 0.311 wOBA, 0.221 xwOBA, -0.09 Diff
Matt Chapman - 76 PA, 44 BIP, 11 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Randy Arozarena - 80 PA, 49 BIP, 12 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 85 PA, 61 BIP, 14 Brls, 23.0 Brl%
Brandon Drury - 73 PA, 46 BIP, 10 Brls, 21.7 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 69 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Brent Rooker - 75 PA, 38 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.1 Brl%
Mike Trout - 81 PA, 55 BIP, 11 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 70 PA, 56 BIP, 11 Brls, 19.6 Brl%
Max Muncy - 65 PA, 33 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.2 Brl%
Trevor Larnach - 57 PA, 28 BIP, 5 Brls, 17.9 Brl%
Masataka Yoshida - 76 PA, 0.478 xwOBA
Sean Murphy - 69 PA, 0.471 xwOBA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 70 PA, 0.457 xwOBA
Jonah Heim - 68 PA, 0.455 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 76 PA, 0.433 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 85 PA, 0.429 xwOBA
Adolis Garcia - 82 PA, 0.425 xwOBA
Christian Walker - 74 PA, 0.424 xwOBA
Nick Castellanos - 76 PA, 0.422 xwOBA
Brent Rooker - 75 PA, 0.42 xwOBA
Luis Arraez - 66 PA, 131 Swings, 93.1 Cont%
Geraldo Perdomo - 50 PA, 87 Swings, 92.0 Cont%
Myles Straw - 67 PA, 116 Swings, 91.4 Cont%
Alejandro Kirk - 52 PA, 84 Swings, 90.5 Cont%
Keibert Ruiz - 70 PA, 115 Swings, 90.4 Cont%
Masataka Yoshida - 76 PA, 102 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 93 PA, 174 Swings, 90.2 Cont%
Jesse Winker - 50 PA, 86 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 82 PA, 144 Swings, 88.9 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 63 PA, 115 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Esteury Ruiz - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 5 Attempts (5 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Raimel Tapia - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 5 Attempts (2 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Wander Franco - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Taylor Walls - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Jon Berti - 4 Attempts (2 steals)
Esteury Ruiz - 18 Attempts (16 steals)
Ji Hwan Bae - 14 Attempts (12 steals)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 12 Attempts (11 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Bobby Witt Jr. - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 10 Attempts (5 steals)
Wander Franco - 9 Attempts (6 steals)
Thairo Estrada - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Jorge Mateo - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Anthony Volpe - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Victor Robles - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Shohei Ohtani - 8 Attempts (5 steals)
Jon Berti - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Starling Marte - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Luis Garcia - +13.4% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -16.3 Chase%
Hunter Renfroe - +8.0% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -3.1 Chase%
Ke'Bryan Hayes - +8.7% Contact%, +6.4 mph exit velo, -7.3 Chase%
Connor Joe - +3.8% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -7.5 Chase%
Francisco Lindor - +4.4% Contact%, +6.9 mph exit velo, -10.8 Chase%
Jesse Winker - +10.9% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -14.6 Chase%
Will Smith - +6.3% Contact%, +7.1 mph exit velo, -9.3 Chase%
Leody Taveras - +8.0% Contact%, +8.2 mph exit velo, -17.2 Chase%
Zach McKinstry - +9.3% Contact%, +3.6 mph exit velo, -10.6 Chase%
Kevin Kiermaier - +17.6% Contact%, +3.3 mph exit velo, -15.3 Chase%
Shea Langeliers - +11.9% Contact%, +3.4 mph exit velo, -11.5 Chase%
Ian Happ - 0.389 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 75.2% Contact%, 20.6% Chase%, 20.7% K%
LaMonte Wade Jr. - 0.424 xwOBA, 12.5% Brl%, 75.7% Contact%, 12.8% Chase%, 19.2% K%
Masataka Yoshida - 0.524 xwOBA, 13.3% Brl%, 93.1% Contact%, 18.1% Chase%, 3.8% K%
Max Kepler - 0.4 xwOBA, 14.3% Brl%, 83.1% Contact%, 22.4% Chase%, 20.4% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.458 xwOBA, 15.4% Brl%, 81.5% Contact%, 19.8% Chase%, 13.0% K%
Joey Gallo - 40.4% Whiff%, 83.3% Weak%, 0.991 Cold Rating
Nolan Gorman - 36.7% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.953 Cold Rating
Andrew McCutchen - 40.3% Whiff%, 69.6% Weak%, 0.9 Cold Rating
Brian Anderson - 31.5% Whiff%, 76.0% Weak%, 0.897 Cold Rating
Michael Conforto - 31.5% Whiff%, 75.9% Weak%, 0.893 Cold Rating
Jorge Soler - 31.5% Whiff%, 73.5% Weak%, 0.873 Cold Rating
James Outman - 49.5% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.871 Cold Rating
Alek Thomas - 31.7% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.861 Cold Rating
Trea Turner - 30.4% Whiff%, 74.3% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
Joey Wiemer - 33.3% Whiff%, 69.2% Weak%, 0.842 Cold Rating
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