MLB Daily Notes - May 9th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
I would rather do things that I want to do rather than things that I do not want to do. I don’t want to fix SQL and C# sharp problems at work today, I don’t want to help my kids go to the bathroom, I don’t want to clean the house or attend meetings. I just want to write these daily notes and do a sick podcast today and read a book and exercise and eat good food.
But I will do the things I do not want to do, and I will have the best attitude possible about it, because that is what a responsible adult does. And someday, I will retire from my normal job and my kids will be self-sufficient and my wife and I will sit down, and the Pirates will make the playoffs.
We go to the beach every summer and for the last five years now we’ve had a child under two years old with us, which means someone and usually two people have to be up and at it making sure that child doesn’t die. So there’s just no sitting ever, but we’re getting there, we’re getting there.
I remember the first couple of years I’d go on that vacation (it’s my wife’s family’s yearly vacation) and I would house like 3-5 books in one week. That’s the trip that really got me back into reading books. I started with Chris Moneymaker’s book:
And then I moved onto more mature books like ones about serial killers.
^ That book is incredible.
And now I’ve evolved even beyond serial killer books. I’m currently reading Jonathan Haidt’s recent book:
So I’ll be finishing that one at the beach this year, and then I also have an Andrew Klavan FICTION book to read, and the rest will be mostly Christian theology stuff which I can’t get enough of these days.
I would seriously, seriously recommend that Haidt book for anybody with kids still in their primary schooling days. Like in grade school, whatever the right wording for that. It’s pretty terrifying, but I think you have to have a healthy dose of being terrified to be a truly good parent.
Guess what, I’m bringing back the reader requests form. We did this last year, and I’m not sure why I haven’t brought it back this year. If you have a specific player or topic…
effing A someone is calling me for work right now brb,
Okay I handled it. I had told this woman that the error she’s telling me exists doesn’t actually exist and she’s just doing something wrong, but then she called me and proved me wrong. Classic.
Anyways if you have a specific player or topic you want me to weigh into, fill out this form:
And then maybe I’ll get to it. Last year I’d forget about those for awhile, and sometimes I’d get so many requests that I couldn’t handle it. A couple of times I just let them accrue for a week or so and then banged them all out with a podcast - so there are a lot of options I have here. I’ll include that form in all of the daily notes from here on, unless I forget all about this.
The reason that I was reminded of this is because a paid subscriber e-mailed me directly to ask me to break down Aaron Civale, so let’s do that.
His season fantasy results look like something I would have made when I was playing that Line Rider game back in middle school:
Here are the box score results:
So we can break it down into halves:
First4: 7 ER, 29.2% K%, 4.5% BB%, 47.2% Strike%, 36.1% Ball%, .244 xwOBA
Last4: 20 ER, 18.9% K%, 8.9% BB%, 45.8% Strike%, 34.8% Ball%, .390 xwOBA
The SwStr% was about the same in both samples, below 11.5%, so we never should have believed in the strikeouts early on - and I think I might have actually said that at some point.
The .390 xwOBA over the last four is really high, it’s seventh-worst in the league over that span. We should see some improvement on that moving forward though, there’s a lot of randomness on that front so you typically see regression toward the mean.
Civale isn’t new, he’s been around quite awhile and he’s never really been a dependable fantasy asset. I know people get excited when guys go to the Rays, but there’s only so much you can do. Here’s the pitch mix for the season:
He throws a lot of different pitches and that keeps hitters of balance, that plus his good command has been what has kept him competitive int he Majors, but the command just hasn’t been nearly as good this year overall and that’s hard to overcome given that he doesn’t generate a lot of whiffs.
I think it looks like this for Civale:
10-team leagues: Do not own
12-team leagues: Stream in good matchups
15-team leagues: Start
There’s no upside with him, so dropping Civale is not something you’re going to really regret later on. Hope this helps.
The top pitchers yesterday were clearly Dylan Cease and Chris Sale, so no huge surprises at the top of the board:
Cease: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 12 K, 2 BB, 21.2% SwStr% (24 whiffs)
Sale: 6 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 10 K, 1 BB, 19.4% SwStr% (20 whiffs)
But a couple of more interesting names behind them:
Paddack: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 10 K, 1 BB, 19.2% SwStr% (19 whiffs), 29.3% Ball%
It wasn’t a good WHIP or a quality start from Paddack, he used a lot of pitches to rack up all of those strikeouts, but man - he was dominant. Here’s a plot I haven’t used in a really long time:
That’s a big fat upward trend in strike earning, especially the whiffs. I did not expect this from Paddack. He has a 12.4% SwStr% on the yar, but it’s up to 15% the last four starts.
Surprising to see his four-seamer getting this many strikes (14.9% SwStr%, 55% Strike%). That makes his four-seamer one of the best four-seamers in the game, and we previously thought it was his worst pitch. Unfortunately, the changeup hasn’t been nearly as good as we thought. But over his last four starts:
Paddack SwStr%/Strike% by Pitch
FF: 17.9% / 55%
CH: 14.4% / 45%
SL: 13.9% / 51%
CU: 7.1% / 31%
Those are well above-average Strike% marks on those first three pitches. It’s impressive stuff bro, I can’t lie to you. I think he’s a pretty nice pickup in 12-teamers. He’s probably available in your league as well with his 4.34 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, but the K-BB% is not bad at all at 17.4% and it’s 25.8% (!!!) over his last four starts. The BABIP is crazy high at .365, so there will be some better results coming on that front.
Bassitt: 6.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB, 16.7% SwStr%, 34.3% Ball%
Three different dudes named Chris generated 15+ whiffs last night. That’s crazy. Bassitt is his usual up-and-down self this year, and it’s been mostly bad with a 5.06 ERA and 1.55 WHIP on a 10.6% K-BB%. If this weren’t such an established VET, we’d probably be running for the hills, but remember last year:
33 GS, 3.60 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 22.5% K%, 7.1% BB%, 15.4% K-BB%
Maybe he’s worse this year, but it’s silly for us to assume that. We should always just take the bigger sample, and over his last 41 starts he has a 14.5% K-BB% with a 3.86 ERA, so that’s more than good enough for 12-team leagues or deeper. Those innings-eaters who don’t crush your ratios are more valuable than you think.
By the way my psycho-analyzation of Derek Shelton’s Paul Skenes comments was right on the money two days ago. Skenes will debut Saturday at home against the Cubs just as originally forecasted. So that’s exciting. We now will have Jared Jones and Paul Skenes starting back-to-back, certainly the best Pirates SP duo of my lifetime. It would be more fun for us Pittsburgh bro’s if they could score more than two runs per game, but you gotta take what you can get. Having one leg is better than not having any, I guess.
Some other SP performances I feel like I should mention:
Carlos Rodon. Very good, 6.1 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 7 K, 0 BB, 16% SwStr%. That’s much better than his season SwStr% of 11.4%, which is still a major concern - but good to see him still capable of getting a bunch of whiffs. I’m still pretty pessimistic on him, but maybe I’ll be proven wrong there.
Tanner Bibee - It has not been a good season for the second-year man, although it wasn’t so bad yesterday with a 13.4% SwStr% and 51.2% Strike%, but he gave up five hits and four runs and didn’t even make it into the fifth inning. The K-BB% is still 17.8% and the SwStr% is now 13.5%, so I’d consider him a buy-low - should be better days ahead.
Kyle Bradish - He crushed in his second start back with nine strikeouts in five innings and he threw 90 pitches. It’s just a 12.1% SwStr% and 39% Ball% in these first two starts, which isn’t good, but it’s incredibly early for him obviously. You also probably won’t get a huge SwStr% from him given how easy his four-seamer is to make contact with (6.9% SwStr% this year, 5.9% since 2023). I suppose I can’t say he’s not a top-30 SP right now, but I am just so bigoted against starting pitchers with crappy fastballs.
Jack Leiter - The stuff hasn’t played in the Majors in two starts. 60 pitches yesterday, an 11.7% SwStr% and 45% Strike%, he gave up six runs (four earned) on seven hits in four innings.
Hitter Add of the Day
Michael Massey, Kansas City Royals
He missed the beginning of the season with injury, but he’s seen 61 PAs now and has done this:
.281/.283/.491, .775 OPS, 8.2% K%, 1.6% BB%, 3 HR, 0 SB, 5.5% Brl%
I highlighted him a lot as a deep, deep league middle infielder given his big time leap in K% last season. In 2023:
461 PA, .229/.274/.381, .655 OPS, 21.5% K%, 5.2% BB%, 15 HR, 6 SB
So that’s not a good season, a .655 OPS is bad, but you can see that he was pretty decent on the homers and steals front. That’s a pace of about 20 homers and 10 steals. He’s newly 26, so there’s some age-based upside left in the tank here, and there should be some regression on the BABIP front as well (.258 since last year). Underrated hitter. I’m not recommending him for 12-team leagues, but 15-teams or something like that - sure.
Brent Rooker is also smashing in the middle of this resurgent A’s lineup.
108 PA, .277/.370/.628, .998 OPS, 9 HR, 33.3% K%, 12.0% BB%
But remember that he did this year as well. He started incredibly well but then was pretty mediocre/bad in the middle of the year before finishing strong.
But his 2023 line was nothing to sneeze at:
526 PA, .246/.329/.488, .817 OPS, 30 HR, 33% K%, 9% BB%
So he strikes out a ton but is excellent when he is able to get to the ball.
I feel like in a 12-team league or in any five-outfielder league, he’s probably a guy you take the Blake Snell Approach (BSA™) with.
The Blake Snell Approach
Start the player every day
Do not watch their games
Ignore the day-to-day results
At the end of the year, you’ll probably look at the full season and be like “okay yeah that was pretty good.”
And now I really need to get back to this heap of e-mails and tickets… geh.
Thursdays are a good day for me to just focus on all things non-baseball since there are often very few games on there and my incessant work on this blog really ends up piling real-life stuff up for me. So I’ll do my best to be productive today. Wish me luck. I love you.
Pitcher Reports
Algo SP Ranks - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease
2. Chris Paddack
3. Chris Sale
4. Chris Bassitt
5. Carlos Rodon
6. Osvaldo Bido
7. Reese Olson
8. Aaron Nola
9. Kyle Bradish
10. Martin Perez
11. Tanner Bibee
12. Jose Soriano
13. Jack Leiter
14. Chris Flexen
15. Jordan Hicks
16. Gavin Stone
17. Mitchell Parker
18. Jordan Montgomery
19. Joe Ross
20. George Kirby
21. Aaron Civale
22. Nick Pivetta
23. Hayden Wesneski
24. Graham Ashcraft
25. Michael Lorenzen
26. Ryan Weathers
27. Spencer Arrighetti
28. Peter Lambert
29. Brady Singer
30. JP Sears
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease (vs. CHC): 41.95 Points
2. Chris Sale (vs. BOS): 33.3 Points
3. Chris Flexen (vs. TB): 29.1 Points
4. Chris Paddack (vs. SEA): 28.59 Points
5. Carlos Rodon (vs. HOU): 24.04 Points
6. Kyle Bradish (vs. WSH): 23.65 Points
7. Chris Bassitt (vs. PHI): 23.24 Points
8. Gavin Stone (vs. MIA): 22.15 Points
9. David Robertson (vs. OAK): 17.9 Points
10. Brady Singer (vs. MIL): 17.79 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Dylan Cease (SD): 24 Whiffs (113 Pitches)
2. Chris Sale (ATL): 20 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
3. Chris Paddack (MIN): 19 Whiffs (99 Pitches)
4. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 17 Whiffs (102 Pitches)
5. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 16 Whiffs (100 Pitches)
6. Jordan Hicks (SF): 12 Whiffs (92 Pitches)
7. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 12 Whiffs (90 Pitches)
8. Aaron Nola (PHI): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
9. Chris Flexen (CWS): 12 Whiffs (96 Pitches)
10. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 11 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Chris Paddack (MIN): 56.6 Strike%, 29.3 Ball%
2. Chris Sale (ATL): 53.4 Strike%, 33.0 Ball%
3. Dylan Cease (SD): 53.1 Strike%, 38.9 Ball%
4. Tanner Bibee (CLE): 51.2 Strike%, 34.1 Ball%
5. Kyle Bradish (BAL): 51.1 Strike%, 37.8 Ball%
6. Aaron Nola (PHI): 51.0 Strike%, 29.2 Ball%
7. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 50.0 Strike%, 31.0 Ball%
8. Chris Bassitt (TOR): 50.0 Strike%, 34.3 Ball%
9. George Kirby (SEA): 48.6 Strike%, 30.0 Ball%
10. Anthony Molina (COL): 48.1 Strike%, 35.2 Ball%
11. Chris Flexen (CWS): 47.9 Strike%, 39.6 Ball%
12. Martin Perez (PIT): 47.9 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
13. Brady Singer (KC): 47.2 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
14. Reese Olson (DET): 47.2 Strike%, 34.8 Ball%
15. Mitchell Parker (WSH): 46.8 Strike%, 31.2 Ball%
Pitches/Out (POUT) Leaders - Yesterday
1. Gavin Stone: 89 Pitches, 21 Outs, 4.24 POUT
2. Joe Ross: 67 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.47 POUT
3. George Kirby: 70 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.67 POUT
4. Jordan Montgomery: 95 Pitches, 20 Outs, 4.75 POUT
5. Mitchell Parker: 77 Pitches, 16 Outs, 4.81 POUT
6. Nick Pivetta: 58 Pitches, 12 Outs, 4.83 POUT
7. Martin Perez: 73 Pitches, 15 Outs, 4.87 POUT
8. Reese Olson: 89 Pitches, 18 Outs, 4.94 POUT
9. Jack Leiter: 60 Pitches, 12 Outs, 5.0 POUT
10. JP Sears: 88 Pitches, 17 Outs, 5.18 POUT
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Jose Soriano's SL velo (10 pitches) UP 2.7mph to 93.4
Tanner Bibee's SL velo (27 pitches) UP 2.3mph to 87.3
Ryan Weathers's ST velo (20 pitches) UP 1.6mph to 82.9
Chris Bassitt's ST velo (11 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 74.8
Dylan Cease's FF velo (56 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 97.3
George Kirby's FF velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 94.5
JP Sears's FF velo (25 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 91.5
Kyle Muller's SL velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.5mph to 85.2
JP Sears's ST velo (28 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 78.7
Michael Lorenzen's ST velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.9mph to 81.0
Jordan Hicks's SI velo (46 pitches) DOWN -4.3mph to 94.2
Jordan Hicks's ST velo (26 pitches) DOWN -5.0mph to 79.9
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Civale's ST usage (19.5%) up 14.9 points
Jordan Hicks's FS usage (20.7%) up 11.4 points
Jose Soriano's SI usage (51.2%) up 12.1 points
Kyle Bradish's SI usage (46.7%) up 24.6 points
Kyle Muller's SL usage (37.7%) up 12.0 points
Martin Perez's FC usage (43.8%) up 20.2 points
Michael Lorenzen's SI usage (31.8%) up 17.7 points
Mitchell Parker's SL usage (15.6%) up 11.3 points
Nick Pivetta's FC usage (12.1%) up 10.1 points
Osvaldo Bido's FF usage (40.4%) up 12.2 points
Osvaldo Bido's CH usage (21.1%) up 10.6 points
Peter Lambert's SI usage (13.4%) up 12.5 points
Ryan Weathers's SI usage (17.5%) up 13.7 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Sean Manaea 4-Seam Fastball: -41.2%
Patrick Sandoval 4-Seam Fastball: -23.7%
Jose Soriano Sinker: +19.9%
Hunter Greene 4-Seam Fastball: +18.0%
Jose Soriano 4-Seam Fastball: -17.9%
Carlos Rodon Slider: +17.1%
Chris Flexen 4-Seam Fastball: -16.4%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: +15.8%
Miles Mikolas Slider: -15.4%
Brady Singer Sinker: +15.1%
Joe Ross 4-Seam Fastball: +14.2%
Hunter Greene Slider: -14.1%
Zack Littell Sinker: -14.1%
Mitch Keller 4-Seam Fastball: +14.1%
Joe Ross Sinker: -14.0%
Chris Flexen Cutter: +13.9%
Yu Darvish Slider: +13.6%
Luis Severino Cutter: -13.2%
Jordan Hicks Split-Finger: +13.1%
Seth Lugo Slurve: +12.3%
Seth Lugo Curveball: -12.2%
Max Fried Sweeper: -12.1%
Ronel Blanco 4-Seam Fastball: -12.1%
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 37.4% CSW%
Chris Sale - 99 TBF, 35.9% CSW%
Yoshinobu Yamamoto - 103 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 91 TBF, 33.1% CSW%
Triston McKenzie - 87 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 106 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 102 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 32.4% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 32.1% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jack Flaherty - 91 TBF, 39.6% K%
Tyler Glasnow - 80 TBF, 36.2% K%
Dylan Cease - 95 TBF, 34.7% K%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 34.4% K%
Chris Sale - 99 TBF, 32.3% K%
Cole Ragans - 83 TBF, 30.1% K%
George Kirby - 87 TBF, 29.9% K%
Luis Castillo - 97 TBF, 29.9% K%
Patrick Sandoval - 91 TBF, 29.7% K%
Tanner Bibee - 88 TBF, 29.5% K%
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