MLB Daily Notes - September 8th
A daily automated report of what happened yesterday in Major League Baseball, along with other recent trends and further analysis.
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Two things before we get started! My daughter is one her fourth week of preschool, and I think she’s already starting to fake sick. She threw up Tuesday morning so she stayed home, but by like 10:00 she was totally normal and fine, so she went all week normally - but today she’s saying she’s sick again and doesn’t want to go to school! I thought preschool was supposed to be so fun that the kids would want to go even if they weren’t feeling great - what’s the deal?
In all seriousness, I think she does have something - she has a temperature hovering around 100, which really isn’t anything crazy and completely within the margin of error of one of these rinky-dink thermometers - but she’s going to stay home against today. But that makes another point - did kids just stay home any time they coughed and had a slight fever back in BC (before Covid)? Would I be like an evil and bad parent to send my kid to school with a 100.2 degree fever here in the days of the WAC (the World After COVID)?
I can see both sides of this one, and I could even see why some of you just answered that question like “it’s not evil, but yeah you shouldn’t do that.” If you know your kid is even slightly sick and might be contagious, it’s a little uncaring to send them into a building with dozens to hundreds of other kids, but is that really a sustainable thing? Kids are sick like 20% of the time, I don’t think perfect health is a rational standard for when they can go into the world. Plus, these freaking kids need strong immune systems, you know? That’s kind of the key to being healthy the rest of your life - getting exposed to some nasty stuff when you’re a kid. I wonder how many kids born after like 2017 are going to be immunocompromised just because their parents kept them in a bubble because they were permanently freaked out and scarred by COVID. What a crazy couple of years that all was… sheesh.
The other thing is that football is back and my eyes have been re-opened to how dumb a lot of the talk about fantasy football can be. A ton of people really like football, so you get a ton of people talking about football, so this is just a numbers game. A certain percentage of any population is going to be pretty dumb - so the higher the total people talking, the higher the number of dumb people talking.
And look, I’m not even going to call out anybody individually besides Cris Collinsworth. Me saying “dumb” here isn’t even really intended to be malicious, and I’m not saying this right now just to avoid looking like a jerk - it’s just the truth. Being dumb isn’t a problem in this front - it’s just sports takes, they are meaningless. You can be dumb about sports and be the best most successful most virtuous person in the world - it does you very little extra good to know sports very well.
So anyway, the first thing was that near the end of the game last night, the Lions had a 4th down at like the Chiefs 45 yard line or something and they went for it. So the options were to punt and give the ball to the Chiefs around the 10-20 yard line, or risk it and potentially give it to them at the 45. Collinsworth said, “does it even really matter where you give Mahomes the ball?” And I’m sure 99% of people just let that slide or didn’t hear it - but I was outraged. I was so worked up that, and this isn’t common for me, I TWEETED ABOUT IT.
Like are you kidding me dude? Do you think that it just doesn’t matter where Mahomes starts a drive? As long as it’s a two-minute drill or a “clutch” situation, he’s just going to win the game no matter what? It’s so ridiculous, man. Star athletes are susceptible to every environmental force that normal people are - and yes, it’s significantly less likely for Mahomes to drive 85 yards than for him to drive 65 (he just needed a field goal in that case, so it was more like 55 vs. 25 but whatever you get my point).
That point applies to all the people who acted like the supporting cast Mahomes has doesn’t matter either. Travis Kelce goes out and people are like OH YEAH PUTTING MORE MONEY ON THE CHIEFS NOW!!
Now, there is CERTAINLY something to be said for non-QBs not having nearly as big of an impact on the game as a QB missing, that’s obviously true. It’s pretty darn easy to replace a running back or a WR2 or something, and often times you just won’t see the game lines move when a big name that isn’t a QB gets unexpectedly ruled out, but to act like the Chiefs’ chances of winning that game don’t go down without Kelce is foolishness. I’m not at all saying that Lions +4.5 or whatever it ended up at was clearly the right bet, not at all, but again - people just act like the normal rules of probability don’t apply to the Patrick Mahomes’ of the world, and they do - they do.
That game was hilarious though, I’ve never seen a wide receiver core screw over their QB so bad. Through my eyes it looked like Mahomes played a great game, but there were just so many huge mistakes, drops, and missed plays from the receivers. Pretty funny and interesting game to open up the season, and your boy got a nice game from my fantasy RB3 David Montgomery!
Pitchers - Yesterday
Let’s check the season on Ryan Pepiot, who had a big start yesterday and really showed Lance Lynn and Clayton Kershaw how it’s done.
So he hasn’t been very healthy this year, but some pretty decent numbers while he’s been on the hill (those AAA games are in the Pacific Coast League where the league ERA is 5.77).
Here’s the arsenal in his time in the Majors:
Luis Castillo kept it moving, just another great outing for him:
Fantastic freaking season for that guy, he’s one of the few pitchers that (in my head at least) hasn’t gone through any real rough patches. Although, that is not to say he hasn’t had bad starts - but he’s bounced back very nicely from all of them and the numbers right now are pristine.
I need to make a decision on Carlos Rodon today as I head into the playoffs next year. He got obliterated by the Tigers last night but he led the slate in SwStr% at 17.8% and had a bunch of chases as well. He went for a solid 50.7% Strike% and 28.8% Ball% and he didn’t even walk anybody - so really it was not a horrible start by those numbers.
His fastball got hit hard when it was contacted, but again a 17.9% SwStr% and 49% Strike% on the pitch is going to work quite well most of the time.
For the year now:
10 GS, 13.8% SwStr%, 47.3% Strike%, 20.1% K%, 10.3% BB%, .346 xwOBA
Last 5 starts:
5 GS, 14.7% SwStr%, 49.1% Strike%, 22.1% K%, 5.3% BB%, .332 xwOBA
So this is a real #PlantYourFlag moment for me. The numbers I like most are pretty strong, especially recently, and the pitcher I would replace him with would not be very good, so I think, based on principle, I have to roll with him and his 6.60 ERA into the playoffs. He sets up to face the Red Sox in Boston in the middle of next week, and then probably the Blue Jays twice to finish out the season.
Fantasy Points Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo - 622491 (vs. TB): 28.7 Points
2. Ryan Pepiot (vs. MIA): 25.15 Points
3. Cal Quantrill (vs. LAA): 22.5 Points
4. Zack Littell (vs. SEA): 20.4 Points
5. Ryne Nelson (vs. CHC): 18.36 Points
6. Max Fried (vs. STL): 14.7 Points
7. Eduardo Rodriguez (vs. NYY): 14.7 Points
8. Braxton Garrett (vs. LAD): 10.66 Points
9. Randy Vasquez (vs. DET): 10.24 Points
10. Isaiah Campbell (vs. TB): 8.25 Points
Whiffs Leaders - Yesterday
1. Luis Castillo (SEA): 17 Whiffs (108 Pitches)
2. Cal Quantrill (CLE): 13 Whiffs (82 Pitches)
3. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 13 Whiffs (73 Pitches)
4. Ryan Pepiot (LAD): 10 Whiffs (84 Pitches)
5. Max Fried (ATL): 9 Whiffs (103 Pitches)
6. Randy Vasquez (NYY): 8 Whiffs (50 Pitches)
7. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 8 Whiffs (91 Pitches)
8. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 8 Whiffs (89 Pitches)
9. Zack Littell (TB): 7 Whiffs (86 Pitches)
10. Adam Wainwright (STL): 7 Whiffs (104 Pitches)
Strike% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Braxton Garrett (MIA): 52.7 Strike%, 36.3 Ball%
2. Luis Castillo (SEA): 51.9 Strike%, 36.1 Ball%
3. Carlos Rodon (NYY): 50.7 Strike%, 28.8 Ball%
4. Ryne Nelson (ARI): 49.3 Strike%, 30.1 Ball%
5. Cal Quantrill (CLE): 48.8 Strike%, 32.9 Ball%
6. Ryan Pepiot (LAD): 48.8 Strike%, 28.6 Ball%
7. Davis Daniel (LAA): 48.5 Strike%, 37.9 Ball%
8. Randy Vasquez (NYY): 46.0 Strike%, 44.0 Ball%
9. Adam Wainwright (STL): 43.3 Strike%, 36.5 Ball%
10. Zack Littell (TB): 43.0 Strike%, 29.1 Ball%
11. Eduardo Rodriguez (DET): 41.6 Strike%, 40.4 Ball%
12. Devin Smeltzer (MIA): 40.3 Strike%, 37.3 Ball%
13. Max Fried (ATL): 39.8 Strike%, 42.7 Ball%
14. Javier Assad (CHC): 35.6 Strike%, 39.1 Ball%
Pitcher/Pitch Trends
I highlighted Max Fried’s velocity a week or so ago, so we should update on that:
So that’s kind of weird, the fastball velo is down but the slider is up. Either way, I don’t see any reason to think he’s not healthy - so you’re starting him confidently from here on out - obviously.
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Max Fried's SL velo (17 pitches) UP 1.7mph to 86.7
Eduardo Rodriguez's CH velo (22 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 87.2
Javier Assad's SL velo (10 pitches) DOWN -1.8mph to 79.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Randy Vasquez's SI usage (30.0%) up 10.4 points
Ryne Nelson's FF usage (68.5%) up 15.2 points
Zack Littell's SI usage (22.1%) up 17.3 points
Pitch Mix Changes - Last 3 Starts
Alex Cobb Split-Finger: +21.6%
Josiah Gray Sinker: +21.3%
Zach Davies Sinker: -19.2%
Alec Marsh Slider: -18.9%
Zack Littell Sinker: +18.9%
Bryan Woo Cutter: +18.7%
Kyle Muller Slider: -17.0%
Michael Soroka 4-Seam Fastball: +16.6%
Johnny Cueto Cutter: -16.1%
Zack Littell 4-Seam Fastball: -15.8%
Michael Soroka Sinker: -15.3%
Bobby Miller 4-Seam Fastball: +15.1%
Patrick Sandoval Slider: -14.8%
Lucas Giolito Changeup: +14.6%
Bobby Miller Sinker: -14.3%
Josiah Gray 4-Seam Fastball: -14.0%
J.P. France Curveball: +13.9%
Tanner Houck Sinker: +13.9%
Joan Adon Curveball: -13.8%
Rich Hill 4-Seam Fastball: +13.6%
Chris Sale Slider: +13.4%
Matt Manning Slider: +13.4%
Jake Irvin Sinker: +13.3%
Tarik Skubal 4-Seam Fastball: -13.2%
Rich Hill Curveball: -13.0%
Zach Davies 4-Seam Fastball: +12.9%
Hunter Brown Slider: -12.8%
Jon Gray Slider: +12.6%
Sonny Gray Sweeper: +12.6%
Touki Toussaint 4-Seam Fastball: -12.5%
Alex Cobb Sinker: -12.1%
Pitchers - Recent Leaders
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 36.2% CSW%
Zach Eflin - 91 TBF, 34.6% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 68 TBF, 34.5% CSW%
Bobby Miller - 76 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 89 TBF, 34.2% CSW%
Blake Snell - 78 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Lucas Giolito - 71 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Logan Gilbert - 101 TBF, 32.9% CSW%
Brandon Woodruff - 91 TBF, 32.7% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 90 TBF, 40.0% K%
Freddy Peralta - 86 TBF, 39.5% K%
Spencer Strider - 89 TBF, 37.1% K%
Kodai Senga - 77 TBF, 35.1% K%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Justin Steele - 101 TBF, 32.7% K%
Mitch Keller - 80 TBF, 32.5% K%
Charlie Morton - 68 TBF, 32.4% K%
Blake Snell - 78 TBF, 32.1% K%
Jon Gray - 69 TBF, 31.9% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 90 TBF, 36.7% K-BB%
Freddy Peralta - 86 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 30.2% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 89 TBF, 29.2% K-BB%
Tyler Glasnow - 99 TBF, 28.3% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 101 TBF, 27.7% K-BB%
Gerrit Cole - 96 TBF, 27.1% K-BB%
Mitch Keller - 80 TBF, 26.2% K-BB%
Kodai Senga - 77 TBF, 26.0% K-BB%
Zach Eflin - 91 TBF, 25.3% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 61.9% GB%
Logan Webb - 97 TBF, 59.5% GB%
Alex Cobb - 93 TBF, 59.2% GB%
Cristopher Sanchez - 69 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Zac Gallen - 76 TBF, 58.5% GB%
Framber Valdez - 106 TBF, 57.5% GB%
Brayan Bello - 98 TBF, 56.2% GB%
Hyun Jin Ryu - 83 TBF, 55.9% GB%
Justin Steele - 101 TBF, 54.8% GB%
Andrew Heaney - 83 TBF, 54.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Cole Ragans - 90 TBF, 40.0 K%, 3.3 BB%, 46.0% GB%
Freddy Peralta - 86 TBF, 39.5 K%, 7.0 BB%, 47.8% GB%
Justin Steele - 101 TBF, 32.7 K%, 5.0 BB%, 54.8% GB%
Kyle Bradish - 71 TBF, 31.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 61.9% GB%
Max Fried - 102 TBF, 27.5 K%, 6.9 BB%, 45.5% GB%
Mitch Keller - 80 TBF, 32.5 K%, 6.2 BB%, 43.8% GB%
Tarik Skubal - 99 TBF, 30.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 51.6% GB%
Tyler Glasnow - 99 TBF, 31.3 K%, 3.0 BB%, 49.2% GB%
Zack Wheeler - 96 TBF, 33.3 K%, 3.1 BB%, 52.5% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Chris Bassitt - +2.7% CSW%, -3.6 BB%
Justin Steele - +2.8% CSW%, -2.8 BB%
Zack Wheeler - +2.4% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Mitch Keller - +4.8% CSW%, -2.2 BB%
Graham Ashcraft - +6.3% CSW%, -2.0 BB%
Jameson Taillon - +5.5% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Alex Cobb - +2.7% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Cole Ragans - +3.4% CSW%, -7.0 BB%
Griffin Canning - +4.8% CSW%, -4.5 BB%
Ryan Yarbrough - +4.7% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Hitters
Spencer Torkelson, man!
Season:
.235/.319/.453, 27 HR, 15.1% Brl%, 24.6% K%
Since July 1st:
.251/.345/.539, 16 HR, 20.0% Brl%, 25.8% K%
Do you know how many hitters this year have a Brl% above 15% and a K% below 25%? Just these guys:
We could see Torkelson as being one of the best power hitters in the league as soon as next year, and I think the batting average could easily hover around .260-.275 next year - which would make him a pretty great fantasy player. The ceiling is capped, however, with the lack of steals and the Tigers lineup around him - but man he’s been great this year and especially lately.
Tommy Pham also continues to produce.
392 PA, .262/.329/.470, 15 HR, 17 SB, 22.2% K%, 8.9% BB%, 11.6% Brl%
He’s another guy that was free in fantasy this year and has paid off big time for those who added him.
Michael Harris this year:
.291/.336/.462, 14 HR, 18.6% K%, 5.9% BB%, 21 SB
It’s looking unlikely he’ll get to the 20-20 season we were hoping for/expecting, but still a pretty solid year for the young guy and I think he should be a top 30 or so hitter nrext year given the five-category upside.
Multiple Barrels
Andy Ibanez (DET) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Michael Harris II (ATL) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Spencer Torkelson (DET) 5 PA, 4 Swings, 3 Barrels, 2 HR
Tommy Pham (ARI) 5 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 2 HR
Hardest Hit Balls
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 115.3mph - home_run
Tommy Pham (ARI) - 110.8mph - field_out
J.P. Crawford (SEA) - 110.3mph - foul
Christian Walker (ARI) - 109.5mph - field_out
Spencer Torkelson (DET) - 109.4mph - home_run
Yandy Diaz (TB) - 109.4mph - field_out
Everson Pereira (NYY) - 109.3mph - double
Corbin Carroll (ARI) - 109.1mph - single
Luken Baker (STL) - 108.9mph - field_out
Travis d'Arnaud (ATL) - 108.4mph - foul
Last 3 Weeks - wOBA vs. xwOBA Comparison
Top 10
Everson Pereira - 58 PA, 0.202 wOBA, 0.281 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Salvador Perez - 65 PA, 0.204 wOBA, 0.283 xwOBA, 0.079 Diff
Ryan McMahon - 79 PA, 0.295 wOBA, 0.372 xwOBA, 0.077 Diff
Jose Ramirez - 82 PA, 0.26 wOBA, 0.33 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Logan O'Hoppe - 60 PA, 0.229 wOBA, 0.299 xwOBA, 0.07 Diff
Alec Bohm - 79 PA, 0.371 wOBA, 0.436 xwOBA, 0.065 Diff
Trent Grisham - 59 PA, 0.222 wOBA, 0.286 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Drew Waters - 63 PA, 0.307 wOBA, 0.371 xwOBA, 0.064 Diff
Adley Rutschman - 76 PA, 0.355 wOBA, 0.414 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Juan Soto - 82 PA, 0.347 wOBA, 0.406 xwOBA, 0.059 Diff
Bottom 10
Anthony Santander - 65 PA, 0.482 wOBA, 0.342 xwOBA, -0.14 Diff
Alex Bregman - 92 PA, 0.485 wOBA, 0.361 xwOBA, -0.124 Diff
Nolan Jones - 75 PA, 0.4 wOBA, 0.287 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Luis Rengifo - 75 PA, 0.504 wOBA, 0.391 xwOBA, -0.113 Diff
Corbin Carroll - 78 PA, 0.457 wOBA, 0.345 xwOBA, -0.112 Diff
Adam Duvall - 77 PA, 0.462 wOBA, 0.353 xwOBA, -0.109 Diff
Trea Turner - 75 PA, 0.511 wOBA, 0.403 xwOBA, -0.108 Diff
Mookie Betts - 77 PA, 0.528 wOBA, 0.422 xwOBA, -0.106 Diff
Jeff McNeil - 74 PA, 0.352 wOBA, 0.25 xwOBA, -0.102 Diff
Julio Rodriguez - 72 PA, 0.488 wOBA, 0.388 xwOBA, -0.1 Diff
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Davis Schneider - 50 PA, 27 BIP, 8 Brls, 29.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 85 PA, 45 BIP, 12 Brls, 26.7 Brl%
Mike Ford - 56 PA, 34 BIP, 9 Brls, 26.5 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 80 PA, 42 BIP, 11 Brls, 26.2 Brl%
Trea Turner - 75 PA, 53 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.5 Brl%
Marcell Ozuna - 79 PA, 54 BIP, 13 Brls, 24.1 Brl%
Matt Wallner - 61 PA, 27 BIP, 6 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Mitch Garver - 70 PA, 45 BIP, 10 Brls, 22.2 Brl%
Nelson Velazquez - 57 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Luis Robert - 60 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Kyle Schwarber - 85 PA, 0.532 xwOBA
Marcell Ozuna - 79 PA, 0.504 xwOBA
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 89 PA, 0.46 xwOBA
Mitch Garver - 70 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Jose Abreu - 48 PA, 0.454 xwOBA
Gleyber Torres - 73 PA, 0.451 xwOBA
Davis Schneider - 50 PA, 0.445 xwOBA
Alec Bohm - 79 PA, 0.436 xwOBA
Yoan Moncada - 64 PA, 0.435 xwOBA
Teoscar Hernandez - 85 PA, 0.432 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Nick Madrigal - 53 PA, 87 Swings, 94.3 Cont%
Luis Arraez - 72 PA, 130 Swings, 93.1 Cont%
Alex Bregman - 92 PA, 124 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 79 PA, 165 Swings, 87.9 Cont%
Justin Turner - 80 PA, 147 Swings, 87.8 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 56 PA, 87 Swings, 87.4 Cont%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 89 PA, 165 Swings, 87.3 Cont%
Jeff McNeil - 74 PA, 133 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 82 PA, 149 Swings, 87.2 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 75 PA, 131 Swings, 85.5 Cont%
Last 10 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 7 Attempts (7 steals)
Tommy Edman - 7 Attempts (6 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 6 Attempts (5 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 5 Attempts (4 steals)
Josh Lowe - 4 Attempts (3 steals)
Nolan Jones - 4 Attempts (4 steals)
Harrison Bader - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Cody Bellinger - 3 Attempts (1 steals)
Steven Kwan - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Kerry Carpenter - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Chris Taylor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Ronny Mauricio - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Akil Baddoo - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Kyren Paris - 3 Attempts (3 steals)
Whit Merrifield - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 3 Attempts (2 steals)
Last 30 Days - SB Attempt Leaders
Esteury Ruiz - 15 Attempts (14 steals)
C.J. Abrams - 14 Attempts (13 steals)
Randy Arozarena - 13 Attempts (10 steals)
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 12 Attempts (10 steals)
Elly De La Cruz - 12 Attempts (9 steals)
Nico Hoerner - 11 Attempts (8 steals)
Julio Rodriguez - 11 Attempts (9 steals)
Tommy Edman - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Ha-Seong Kim - 9 Attempts (7 steals)
Fernando Tatis Jr. - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Andres Gimenez - 9 Attempts (8 steals)
Francisco Lindor - 8 Attempts (8 steals)
Michael Harris II - 8 Attempts (7 steals)
Trevor Story - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Corbin Carroll - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
Dairon Blanco - 8 Attempts (6 steals)
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