MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, August 23
Introduction / Explanation For New Readers
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Jordan Montgomery continued his torrid pace with his new team, throwing a complete game one-hitter last night against the Cubs. He struck out seven and walked nobody. Over his last three starts he has 23 strikeouts and two walks while giving up just one run. Some more stats on Montgomery as a red bird:
We had him as a buy-low for most of the year here since the underlying numbers were beating the box scores, and it seems to be paying off right now for the stretch run. It also just seems like the Cardinals are a good team to play for, players really seem to elevate themselves with that organization - although that claim would be pretty tough to ever prove.
Albert Pujols is certainly liking his time back with the Cardinals. He homered against last night and has been quite a good hitter this season.
The other very interesting start of the night came from Edward Cabrera. He threw eight scoreless against the Athletics with seven strikeouts and three walks. He’s one of the most interesting pitchers by the numbers that I’ve seen this year, so I want to go over that. For the year:
32.3% CSW%
14.5% SwStr%
28.1% K%
12.4% BB%
.138 AVG
.200 SLG
4.6% Brl
“Effectively wild” would be a good term for him, although I am curious if one can really be “effectively” wild over a significant sample of games, I have serious doubts, in fact.
Here are the other pitchers in the league with five starts and walk rates above 12%:
It’s not a good list of pitchers, really only Cabrera can be considered a “good pitcher” this season. His K% soars above the rest of the group, which certainly helps, but there is just no way that a WHIP below 1 (which Cabrera currently has) can be sustained with a double-digit walk rate.
Cabrera in AAA this season had a 3.83 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, but now in the Majors, he has a 1.44 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. You just don’t see guys putting up better numbers immediately upon getting run at the highest level. I would call Cabrera a sell-high, but we’re too late in the season for that to even really be a thing. If you can get a nice haul for him in dynasty leagues though, I would really consider it.
Here’s the pitch arsenal breakdown to put a pin in this:
The changeup is really good, but the 19.5% SwStr% doesn’t put it in the conversation for best changeups in the league (right now that crown goes to Brandon Woodruff with a mark of 28.4%). He backs it up with a fine four-seamer, and has a useful slider/curveball/sinker trio as well. I like the profile a lot with all these different pitches that he throws with confidence and success (so far), but I’m just not going to buy into a guy with a 12% walk rate - it’s just so, so difficult to have success while doing that.
Jon Berti had barrels #10 and #11 of his season yesterday and is now the whole way up to a 6.4% Brl% on the year. Notably, he didn’t even homer on his two barrels and still sits with just a pair of long balls for the year.
Plenty more interesting stuff in the reports below, I will leave you to it:
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Edward Cabrera (MIA): 14.9 SwStr%, 34.7 CSW%
2. Drew Smyly (CHC): 15.2 SwStr%, 34.3 CSW%
3. Roansy Contreras (PIT): 13.5 SwStr%, 30.3 CSW%
4. Jordan Montgomery (STL): 14.1 SwStr%, 29.3 CSW%
5. Domingo German (NYY): 5.8 SwStr%, 27.9 CSW%
6. Max Scherzer (NYM): 12.9 SwStr%, 27.7 CSW%
7. Jeffrey Springs (TB): 15.3 SwStr%, 27.6 CSW%
8. Jake Odorizzi (ATL): 14.4 SwStr%, 26.7 CSW%
9. Sonny Gray (MIN): 11.6 SwStr%, 26.1 CSW%
10. Vince Velasquez (CWS): 10.0 SwStr%, 26.0 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jordan Montgomery - 9.0 IP - 67.75 JA Points
2. Edward Cabrera - 8.0 IP - 64.0 JA Points
3. Jake Odorizzi - 6.0 IP - 57.25 JA Points
4. Julio Urias - 6.0 IP - 48.25 JA Points
5. Jeffrey Springs - 5.67 IP - 48.25 JA Points
6. Drew Smyly - 7.0 IP - 43.0 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer - 6.67 IP - 36.5 JA Points
8. Domingo German - 6.33 IP - 34.75 JA Points
9. Joel Kuhnel - 2.0 IP - 34.25 JA Points
10. Roansy Contreras - 7.0 IP - 25.0 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 15.0 GS - 56.34 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 24.0 GS - 53.08 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 23.0 GS - 51.62 JA Points
4. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 21.0 GS - 50.44 JA Points
5. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 24.0 GS - 50.43 JA Points
6. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 24.0 GS - 48.6 JA Points
7. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 25.0 GS - 48.4 JA Points
8. Blake Snell (SD) - 16.0 GS - 46.88 JA Points
9. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 18.0 GS - 46.08 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 19.0 GS - 44.67 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Adam Oller's SL velo (22 pitches) UP 2.0mph to 84.1
Drew Smyly's CU velo (48 pitches) UP 1.8mph to 80.1
Eric Lauer's SL velo (16 pitches) DOWN -4.2mph to 83.6
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Drew Smyly's SI usage (44.4%) up 11.0 points
Edward Cabrera's SI usage (17.8%) up 10.3 points
Jordan Montgomery's FF usage (35.4%) up 24.1 points
Noah Syndergaard's SI usage (49.4%) up 21.2 points
Tucker Davidson's CH usage (14.1%) up 12.1 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Drew Smyly - 93 TBF, 40.3% CSW%
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 36.7% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 35.3% CSW%
Triston McKenzie - 101 TBF, 34.1% CSW%
Corey Kluber - 76 TBF, 34.0% CSW%
Aaron Nola - 77 TBF, 33.7% CSW%
Robbie Ray - 78 TBF, 33.6% CSW%
Edward Cabrera - 84 TBF, 33.5% CSW%
Framber Valdez - 83 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 32.6% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 45.7% K%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 38.8% K%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 37.8% K%
Justin Steele - 88 TBF, 37.5% K%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 37.0% K%
Robbie Ray - 78 TBF, 34.6% K%
Edward Cabrera - 84 TBF, 33.3% K%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 32.0% K%
Triston McKenzie - 101 TBF, 31.7% K%
Sonny Gray - 86 TBF, 30.2% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Jacob deGrom - 81 TBF, 44.4% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 98 TBF, 33.7% K-BB%
Justin Steele - 88 TBF, 33.0% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 92 TBF, 32.6% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 82 TBF, 30.5% K-BB%
Triston McKenzie - 101 TBF, 26.7% K-BB%
Julio Urias - 93 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 25.8% K-BB%
Lance Lynn - 94 TBF, 25.5% K-BB%
Kevin Gausman - 99 TBF, 24.2% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 83 TBF, 73.7% GB%
Logan Webb - 83 TBF, 68.3% GB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 66.1% GB%
Marcus Stroman - 95 TBF, 62.7% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 79 TBF, 61.4% GB%
Alex Cobb - 100 TBF, 59.4% GB%
Kyle Wright - 74 TBF, 59.3% GB%
Shane Bieber - 103 TBF, 58.9% GB%
Edward Cabrera - 84 TBF, 57.8% GB%
Chris Bassitt - 108 TBF, 57.0% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Chris Archer - 72 TBF, 30.6 K%, 6.9 BB%, 53.3% GB%
JT Brubaker - 65 TBF, 29.2 K%, 6.2 BB%, 48.8% GB%
Jeffrey Springs - 87 TBF, 28.7 K%, 6.9 BB%, 55.4% GB%
Lance Lynn - 94 TBF, 27.7 K%, 2.1 BB%, 47.7% GB%
Luis Castillo - 111 TBF, 27.0 K%, 6.3 BB%, 45.8% GB%
Zac Gallen - 97 TBF, 32.0 K%, 6.2 BB%, 66.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Charlie Morton - +4.0% CSW%, -2.6 BB%
Lance Lynn - +2.5% CSW%, -4.1 BB%
Dean Kremer - +3.8% CSW%, -4.3 BB%
Justin Steele - +2.2% CSW%, -5.1 BB%
Matt Manning - +5.2% CSW%, -1.8 BB%
Triston McKenzie - +4.2% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Corey Kluber - +3.5% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Zac Gallen - +4.0% CSW%, -3.9 BB%
JT Brubaker - +4.4% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Austin Voth - +3.8% CSW%, -3.0 BB%
Drew Rasmussen - +2.8% CSW%, -5.5 BB%
Max Fried - +4.7% CSW%, -3.8 BB%
Jose Suarez - +2.2% CSW%, -4.8 BB%
Michael Wacha - +6.8% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Adolis Garcia (TEX) 4 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Jon Berti (MIA) 5 PA, 5 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Charles Leblanc (MIA) 4 PA, 6 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Luis Robert (CWS) 5 PA, 8 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 3 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jon Berti - 5.0 PA - 58.0 JA Points
2. Michael Harris II - 3.0 PA - 52.0 JA Points
3. Nick Castellanos - 4.0 PA - 44.0 JA Points
4. J.T. Realmuto - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
5. Randy Arozarena - 4.0 PA - 43.0 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu - 5.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
7. Max Muncy - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
8. Nick Gordon - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
9. Albert Pujols - 4.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
10. Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 3.0 PA - 36.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 426.0 PA - 140.47 JA Points
2. Juan Soto (SD) - 513.0 PA - 136.84 JA Points
3. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 517.0 PA - 133.54 JA Points
4. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 500.0 PA - 113.36 JA Points
5. Freddie Freeman (LAD) - 532.0 PA - 110.0 JA Points
6. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 403.0 PA - 109.68 JA Points
7. Will Smith (LAD) - 435.0 PA - 100.05 JA Points
8. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 517.0 PA - 94.08 JA Points
9. Alex Bregman (HOU) - 501.0 PA - 93.49 JA Points
10. D.J. LeMahieu (NYY) - 480.0 PA - 93.25 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Luis Robert (CWS) - 117.8mph - field_out
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 110.6mph - double
Christian Yelich (MIL) - 110.0mph - double
Peyton Burdick (MIA) - 109.8mph - field_out
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 109.6mph - home_run
Ryan O'Hearn (KC) - 109.4mph - single
Charles Leblanc (MIA) - 109.0mph - home_run
Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 108.7mph - home_run
Nick Castellanos (PHI) - 108.6mph - home_run
Max Kepler (MIN) - 108.6mph - single
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
J.D. Davis - 49 PA, 27 BIP, 9 Brls, 33.3 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 62 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 74 PA, 45 BIP, 9 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Nick Pratto - 59 PA, 30 BIP, 6 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Max Muncy - 66 PA, 40 BIP, 8 Brls, 20.0 Brl%
Yordan Alvarez - 69 PA, 41 BIP, 8 Brls, 19.5 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 57 PA, 32 BIP, 6 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Michael Massey - 66 PA, 48 BIP, 9 Brls, 18.8 Brl%
Paul DeJong - 73 PA, 39 BIP, 7 Brls, 17.9 Brl%
Teoscar Hernandez - 71 PA, 45 BIP, 8 Brls, 17.8 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - xwOBA Leaders
Juan Soto - 81 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
Paul Goldschmidt - 83 PA, 0.431 xwOBA
J.D. Davis - 49 PA, 0.43 xwOBA
Rowdy Tellez - 65 PA, 0.423 xwOBA
Max Muncy - 66 PA, 0.423 xwOBA
Lars Nootbaar - 77 PA, 0.419 xwOBA
Aaron Judge - 78 PA, 0.414 xwOBA
Nick Gordon - 56 PA, 0.414 xwOBA
Nolan Arenado - 82 PA, 0.41 xwOBA
Jake Fraley - 63 PA, 0.408 xwOBA
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 73 PA, 125 Swings, 94.4 Cont%
Nick Madrigal - 61 PA, 111 Swings, 91.9 Cont%
Jose Iglesias - 68 PA, 127 Swings, 91.3 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 73 PA, 121 Swings, 90.9 Cont%
Ildemaro Vargas - 58 PA, 87 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Nico Hoerner - 76 PA, 133 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Steven Kwan - 74 PA, 114 Swings, 89.5 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 64 PA, 104 Swings, 89.4 Cont%
Isaac Paredes - 58 PA, 106 Swings, 88.7 Cont%
David Fletcher - 73 PA, 116 Swings, 87.1 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Christian Walker - 79 PA, 17.7 K%, 14.3 Brl%
Jesse Winker - 57 PA, 19.3 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Michael Massey - 66 PA, 18.2 K%, 18.8 Brl%
Paul Goldschmidt - 83 PA, 14.5 K%, 15.5 Brl%
Sean Murphy - 79 PA, 15.2 K%, 16.1 Brl%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 79 PA, 11.4 K%, 16.2 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Jose Siri - +4.2% Contact%, +3.5 mph exit velo, -16.9 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
Alex Bregman - 0.436 xwOBA, 13.3% Brl%, 84.3% Contact%, 15.2% Chase%, 7.0% K%
Christian Walker - 0.408 xwOBA, 15.0% Brl%, 76.4% Contact%, 23.0% Chase%, 16.9% K%
Jake Fraley - 0.433 xwOBA, 15.4% Brl%, 83.5% Contact%, 18.3% Chase%, 12.7% K%
Juan Soto - 0.435 xwOBA, 16.7% Brl%, 80.2% Contact%, 15.7% Chase%, 18.3% K%
Manny Machado - 0.382 xwOBA, 11.1% Brl%, 78.9% Contact%, 24.1% Chase%, 15.5% K%
Mitch Haniger - 0.391 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 77.7% Contact%, 24.6% Chase%, 18.9% K%
Paul Goldschmidt - 0.382 xwOBA, 14.6% Brl%, 76.8% Contact%, 22.8% Chase%, 17.2% K%
Ronald Acuna Jr. - 0.375 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 80.2% Contact%, 18.0% Chase%, 21.7% K%
Sean Murphy - 0.378 xwOBA, 12.2% Brl%, 80.9% Contact%, 21.9% Chase%, 14.0% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.457 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 83.5% Contact%, 23.0% Chase%, 7.4% K%
Wilmer Flores - 0.378 xwOBA, 11.4% Brl%, 81.2% Contact%, 23.1% Chase%, 16.7% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Brandon Lowe - 36.4% Whiff%, 87.5% Weak%, 0.971 Cold Rating
Oneil Cruz - 46.3% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.969 Cold Rating
Brandon Belt - 34.8% Whiff%, 75.0% Weak%, 0.921 Cold Rating
Josh Bell - 32.6% Whiff%, 74.3% Weak%, 0.884 Cold Rating
Jonathan Schoop - 35.1% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.882 Cold Rating
J.D. Martinez - 38.4% Whiff%, 68.0% Weak%, 0.876 Cold Rating
Alek Thomas - 29.2% Whiff%, 77.4% Weak%, 0.848 Cold Rating
Jeremy Pena - 40.4% Whiff%, 65.6% Weak%, 0.832 Cold Rating
Rafael Devers - 29.8% Whiff%, 73.2% Weak%, 0.825 Cold Rating
Michael A. Taylor - 36.9% Whiff%, 65.5% Weak%, 0.82 Cold Rating
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