MLB Daily Notes: Tuesday, July 12
Introduction / Explanations for New Readers
I’m considering hiring an NFL DFS writer, if you’re interested in that check out the details here.
Speaking of NFL, it really seems to me that plenty of people have shifted their focus away from MLB recently. Seeing less engagement on RotoBaller and Reddit and whatnot, and we’ve plateaued a bit on subscribers here. This was a predictable thing, but it starting to happen before the All-Star Break is much earlier than I expected. It does give committed players an edge here as some of their competition stops paying attention. Let’s keep plugging away on the notes here!
Vinnie Pasquantino gave us more reason to believe in the hot hitter tracker. He had 9 plate appearances between both games of the double header, he swung the bat 12 times, made contact on 10 of those swings, walked twice, struck out twice, and crushed a homer in the first game (one barrel, one blast).
I’ve started to bet on the total base overs for all super hot hitters, and that resulted in a two-for-two yesterday as Marcell Ozuna got a knock against Scherzer. More bets coming today as everybody is in play.
Max Scherzer did it again yesterday leading the day with a 35.5% CSW% and a 22.6% SwStr%. He might just be the overall SP1 right now, clearly showing no ill effects of the missed time.
Brad Keller wasn’t far behind him with a 34.1% CSW% and a 16.5% CSW%, striking out eight Tigers over seven innings walking one, giving up just three hits. He did it with increased four-seamer usage
He threw 42 four-seamers and just seven sinkers. The 14.3% SwStr% on his four-seamer was elite, but for the year the mark on the pitch is just 9.4% - so not a super believable number either, probably taking advantage of the Tigers lineup there. Probably nothing to do here.
Trevor Rogers just keeps doing the same thing. He went 5.1 innings giving up three runs (two earned) on six hits with seven strikeouts and three walks. The whiffs haven’t been a problem, he has a 13.8% SwStr% over his last 11 starts, but he just can’t command his pitches well enough to make it count. There are certainly way worse pitchers to roster, and there’s always upside with this kind of swing-and-miss stuff, but it doesn’t seem right now that he’s going to be a fantasy ace again.
My guy Alex Cobb put up a quality start (barely), but the 27% CSW% and 7.0% SwStr% he put up probably has me ready to give up on him. He’s lost the strikeouts over his last few starts (14.8% K%, 7.7% SwStr% over his last 5 starts) - which is awful news for his WHIP, and his walk rate will probably be league-average at best. I suppose I have to admit that I was wrong about Cobb, since I’ve been touting him hard all season long and it hasn’t turned into anything for fantasy purposes.
The hitter of the day was Jake Cronenworth who took advantage of Coors to put up three hits with a barrel and a homer. He’s been underwhelming in 2022 with a .241 average and a .389 SLG and just eight homers and one steal. The 83% contact rate is good but the 20% K% is up a touch from last year, doesn’t seem like there’s a ton of reason to roster him in fantasy after he leaves Coors Field.
Brandon Belt had two barrels and now has four over his last 15 PA’s, only whiffing thrice on his 28 swings. That’s a good sign for the turnaround, maybe he’s healthy and caught back up to speed now. I’m adding him where I can, we know what he’s capable of when he’s going well.
A follow-up from yesterday, Manny Machado made contact on seven of his nine swings and added a homer, so that’s a good sign for the health of his ankle (yesterday I was speculating about if he’s really healthy in case you missed it). That’s good news.
Your current hot hitters (hitters seeing significant gains in contact rate, exit velocity, and chase rate over the last seven days as compared to their career marks)
Teoscar Hernandez
Randal Grichuk
Matt Chapman
Alec Bohm
Your current super ultra mega hot hitters (xwOBA above .375, contact rate above 75%, chase rate below 25%, K% below 20% over the last 15 days):
George Springer
Jose Altuve
Kris Bryant (paternity leave)
Marcell Ozuna
Vinnie Pasquantino
We’ll lay some scratch on those names today just in case this whole thing is really real.
On to the notes!
CSW% Leaders - Yesterday
1. Max Scherzer (NYM): 22.6 SwStr%, 35.5 CSW%
2. Brad Keller (KC): 16.5 SwStr%, 34.1 CSW%
3. Sean Manaea (SD): 7.7 SwStr%, 31.9 CSW%
4. Aaron Nola (PHI): 14.3 SwStr%, 31.6 CSW%
5. Trevor Rogers (MIA): 14.9 SwStr%, 30.7 CSW%
6. Merrill Kelly (ARI): 9.9 SwStr%, 27.7 CSW%
7. Mitch Keller (PIT): 8.4 SwStr%, 27.4 CSW%
8. Adrian Martinez (OAK): 9.1 SwStr%, 27.3 CSW%
9. Alex Cobb (SF): 7.0 SwStr%, 27.0 CSW%
10. Alex Faedo (DET): 6.7 SwStr%, 26.7 CSW%
Top Pitcher JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Brad Keller - 7.0 IP - 73.5 JA Points
2. Max Scherzer - 7.0 IP - 58.0 JA Points
3. Trevor Rogers - 5.33 IP - 47.5 JA Points
4. Mitch Keller - 7.0 IP - 37.75 JA Points
5. Aaron Nola - 7.0 IP - 37.5 JA Points
6. Sean Manaea - 6.33 IP - 37.5 JA Points
7. Merrill Kelly - 7.0 IP - 33.5 JA Points
8. Yerry De Los Santos - 1.33 IP - 29.0 JA Points
9. Trevor Stephan - 2.0 IP - 27.25 JA Points
10. Scott Barlow - 2.0 IP - 25.75 JA Points
Pitcher JA Scores - Season
1. Spencer Strider (ATL) - 8 GS - 57.26 JA Points
2. Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 17 GS - 54.88 JA Points
3. Shane McClanahan (TB) - 17 GS - 54.82 JA Points
4. Dylan Cease (CWS) - 17 GS - 52.91 JA Points
5. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 12 GS - 51.87 JA Points
6. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 14 GS - 50.41 JA Points
7. Max Scherzer (NYM) - 10 GS - 48.95 JA Points
8. Carlos Rodon (SF) - 17 GS - 46.94 JA Points
9. Gerrit Cole (NYY) - 17 GS - 45.81 JA Points
10. Cristian Javier (HOU) - 12 GS - 45.29 JA Points
Velo Changes - Yesterday
Max Scherzer's CH velo (13 pitches) UP 1.5mph to 85.4
Mitch Keller's FF velo (20 pitches) DOWN -1.7mph to 94.3
Mitch Keller's CU velo (21 pitches) DOWN -2.3mph to 77.3
Mitch Keller's SL velo (28 pitches) DOWN -4.2mph to 82.0
Pitch Mix Changes - Yesterday
Aaron Nola's FF usage (55.1%) up 21.5 points
Alex Faedo's SL usage (46.7%) up 12.5 points
Brad Keller's FF usage (46.2%) up 13.8 points
Brayan Bello's FF usage (32.9%) up 24.0 points
Daniel Lynch's FF usage (55.6%) up 12.8 points
Jose Urena's FF usage (18.9%) up 12.2 points
Josh Fleming's CU usage (23.9%) up 13.6 points
Miles Mikolas's FF usage (39.4%) up 17.7 points
Spencer Howard's SI usage (28.6%) up 17.0 points
CSW% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 39.9% CSW%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 38.2% CSW%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 35.6% CSW%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 35.1% CSW%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Corbin Burnes - 77 TBF, 34.4% CSW%
Mark Leiter Jr. - 74 TBF, 33.8% CSW%
Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 33.3% CSW%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 33.0% CSW%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 32.8% CSW%
K% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 44.7% K%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 40.0% K%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 38.9% K%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 38.7% K%
Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 37.5% K%
Josiah Gray - 78 TBF, 33.3% K%
Robbie Ray - 96 TBF, 33.3% K%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 33.0% K%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 32.9% K%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 32.4% K%
K-BB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani - 76 TBF, 38.2% K-BB%
Spencer Strider - 85 TBF, 35.3% K-BB%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 34.7% K-BB%
Dylan Cease - 93 TBF, 29.0% K-BB%
Josiah Gray - 78 TBF, 28.2% K-BB%
Yu Darvish - 79 TBF, 27.8% K-BB%
Carlos Rodon - 102 TBF, 27.5% K-BB%
Blake Snell - 72 TBF, 26.4% K-BB%
Charlie Morton - 100 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
Patrick Sandoval - 76 TBF, 25.0% K-BB%
GB% Leaders - Last 3 Weeks
Framber Valdez - 109 TBF, 67.6% GB%
Alex Cobb - 92 TBF, 65.2% GB%
Andre Pallante - 99 TBF, 64.2% GB%
Sandy Alcantara - 115 TBF, 63.7% GB%
Taijuan Walker - 100 TBF, 60.3% GB%
Kris Bubic - 71 TBF, 58.3% GB%
Brad Keller - 96 TBF, 58.2% GB%
Josh Winckowski - 72 TBF, 56.6% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 56.1% GB%
Mitch Keller - 95 TBF, 55.2% GB%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Pitchers - Last 3 Weeks
Clayton Kershaw - 103 TBF, 28.2 K%, 5.8 BB%, 50.0% GB%
Collin McHugh - 52 TBF, 30.8 K%, 1.9 BB%, 48.5% GB%
David Peterson - 67 TBF, 37.3 K%, 7.5 BB%, 47.2% GB%
Luis Castillo - 104 TBF, 29.8 K%, 7.7 BB%, 53.2% GB%
Mark Leiter Jr. - 74 TBF, 27.0 K%, 5.4 BB%, 47.9% GB%
Max Castillo - 54 TBF, 31.5 K%, 5.6 BB%, 55.9% GB%
Shane McClanahan - 72 TBF, 38.9 K%, 4.2 BB%, 56.1% GB%
Hot Pitcher Tracker - Last 3 Weeks vs. Career
Carlos Rodon - +3.6% CSW%, -2.3 BB%
Josiah Gray - +3.0% CSW%, -4.7 BB%
Patrick Sandoval - +2.0% CSW%, -1.7 BB%
Shane McClanahan - +3.8% CSW%, -1.9 BB%
Spenser Watkins - +2.3% CSW%, -3.5 BB%
Cristian Javier - +6.0% CSW%, -4.4 BB%
Brandon Woodruff - +7.6% CSW%, -1.6 BB%
Bryse Wilson - +5.1% CSW%, -5.3 BB%
Noah Syndergaard - +3.6% CSW%, -3.2 BB%
Max Scherzer - +6.9% CSW%, -5.6 BB%
Multiple Barrels
Austin Riley (ATL) 4 PA, 11 Swings, 2 Barrels, 1 HR
Brandon Belt (SF) 3 PA, 4 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Vimael Machin (OAK) 5 PA, 7 Swings, 2 Barrels, 0 HR
Top Hitter JA Scores - Yesterday
1. Jake Cronenworth - 5.0 PA - 54.0 JA Points
2. Jake Marisnick - 4.0 PA - 47.0 JA Points
3. Brandon Belt - 3.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
4. J.T. Realmuto - 4.0 PA - 42.0 JA Points
5. Rhys Hoskins - 4.0 PA - 41.0 JA Points
6. Luis Guillorme - 4.0 PA - 39.0 JA Points
7. Vimael Machin - 5.0 PA - 37.0 JA Points
8. Emmanuel Rivera - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
9. Xander Bogaerts - 4.0 PA - 35.0 JA Points
10. Eric Haase - 4.0 PA - 33.0 JA Points
Hitter JA Scores - Season
1. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) - 312.0 PA - 148.85 JA Points
2. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) - 280.0 PA - 130.0 JA Points
3. Juan Soto (WSH) - 364.0 PA - 119.34 JA Points
4. Aaron Judge (NYY) - 359.0 PA - 117.55 JA Points
5. Luis Arraez (MIN) - 323.0 PA - 110.71 JA Points
6. Jose Abreu (CWS) - 363.0 PA - 109.31 JA Points
7. Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 319.0 PA - 106.58 JA Points
8. Yandy Diaz (TB) - 316.0 PA - 106.08 JA Points
9. Will Smith (LAD) - 295.0 PA - 105.36 JA Points
10. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) - 368.0 PA - 104.57 JA Points
Hardest Hit Balls
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 116.9mph - foul
Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 112.1mph - foul
Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 112.1mph - double
Robinson Cano (ATL) - 112.0mph - single
Seth Brown (OAK) - 112.0mph - field_out
Austin Riley (ATL) - 111.6mph - home_run
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 111.2mph - nan
Daulton Varsho (ARI) - 110.3mph - single
Daulton Varsho (ARI) - 110.0mph - foul
Nolan Jones (CLE) - 110.0mph - double
Last 3 Weeks - Brl% Leaders
Yordan Alvarez - 66 PA, 38 BIP, 12 Brls, 31.6 Brl%
Kyle Schwarber - 80 PA, 51 BIP, 14 Brls, 27.5 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 80 PA, 60 BIP, 15 Brls, 25.0 Brl%
Shohei Ohtani - 71 PA, 45 BIP, 11 Brls, 24.4 Brl%
Diego Castillo - 56 PA, 32 BIP, 7 Brls, 21.9 Brl%
Bryan De La Cruz - 48 PA, 37 BIP, 8 Brls, 21.6 Brl%
Franmil Reyes - 77 PA, 42 BIP, 9 Brls, 21.4 Brl%
Aaron Judge - 77 PA, 48 BIP, 10 Brls, 20.8 Brl%
Jorge Alfaro - 58 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Luke Voit - 67 PA, 34 BIP, 7 Brls, 20.6 Brl%
Last 3 Weeks - Contact% Leaders
Luis Arraez - 89 PA, 135 Swings, 96.3 Cont%
Yandy Diaz - 79 PA, 122 Swings, 94.3 Cont%
Bryson Stott - 60 PA, 108 Swings, 92.6 Cont%
Alex Verdugo - 81 PA, 136 Swings, 91.2 Cont%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa - 54 PA, 76 Swings, 90.8 Cont%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 58 PA, 79 Swings, 89.9 Cont%
Tony Kemp - 60 PA, 126 Swings, 89.7 Cont%
Wander Franco - 57 PA, 103 Swings, 89.3 Cont%
Luis Guillorme - 50 PA, 85 Swings, 88.2 Cont%
J.P. Crawford - 65 PA, 113 Swings, 87.6 Cont%
Magic Formula Qualifiers - Hitters - Last 3 Weeks
Carlos Santana - 67 PA, 19.4 K%, 15.6 Brl%
Joc Pederson - 62 PA, 19.4 K%, 15.2 Brl%
Julio Rodriguez - 80 PA, 16.2 K%, 25.0 Brl%
Robert Refsnyder - 52 PA, 19.2 K%, 19.4 Brl%
Rowdy Tellez - 70 PA, 15.7 K%, 17.6 Brl%
Yadiel Hernandez - 54 PA, 16.7 K%, 17.1 Brl%
Hot Hitter Tracker - Last 7 vs. Career
Teoscar Hernandez - +6.0% Contact%, +3.2 mph exit velo, -3.9 Chase%
Randal Grichuk - +13.9% Contact%, +8.6 mph exit velo, -9.0 Chase%
Matt Chapman - +5.7% Contact%, +6.6 mph exit velo, -7.8 Chase%
Alec Bohm - +10.3% Contact%, +4.1 mph exit velo, -3.3 Chase%
Super Ultra Mega Hot Hitters - Last 15 Days
George Springer - 0.428 xwOBA, 14.0% Brl%, 76.1% Contact%, 23.6% Chase%, 10.3% K%
Jose Altuve - 0.394 xwOBA, 10.3% Brl%, 84.9% Contact%, 22.7% Chase%, 9.4% K%
Kris Bryant - 0.459 xwOBA, 11.4% Brl%, 85.7% Contact%, 23.3% Chase%, 5.9% K%
Marcell Ozuna - 0.39 xwOBA, 16.3% Brl%, 81.6% Contact%, 21.9% Chase%, 15.8% K%
Vinnie Pasquantino - 0.412 xwOBA, 12.8% Brl%, 89.9% Contact%, 20.8% Chase%, 13.8% K%
Cold Hitters - Last 2 Weeks
Patrick Wisdom - 40.3% Whiff%, 71.4% Weak%, 0.941 Cold Rating
Manny Machado - 40.7% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.928 Cold Rating
Orlando Arcia - 33.9% Whiff%, 78.3% Weak%, 0.91 Cold Rating
Jorge Alfaro - 36.6% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.888 Cold Rating
Michael A. Taylor - 30.9% Whiff%, 80.8% Weak%, 0.888 Cold Rating
Brian Anderson - 34.8% Whiff%, 70.8% Weak%, 0.886 Cold Rating
Rafael Devers - 38.4% Whiff%, 66.7% Weak%, 0.857 Cold Rating
Stephen Piscotty - 43.5% Whiff%, 63.6% Weak%, 0.856 Cold Rating
Taylor Walls - 29.7% Whiff%, 76.9% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
Javier Baez - 32.1% Whiff%, 70.0% Weak%, 0.854 Cold Rating
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