MLB Postseason Game Previews - October 23
An automated report of each game on the MLB slate with full projections, recommended bets, and the top DFS plays from each.
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I stupidly said last week that we were looking at the last two-game slate of the postseason, and then the very next day there was another two-game slate. And now we have another one! But this one will certainly be the last one.
It’s the most exciting night of baseball yet. We have game six in Philadelphia and then a huge game seven in Houston. Philly has been so crazy that it’s been pretty amazing just to watch those games on TV, so I’m excited about that - and then everybody loves a game seven. We have some pretty strong pitching matchups too (Kelly vs. Nola, Scherzer vs. Javier).
Game Lines
ARI vs. PHI (-166), O/U 8
TEX vs. HOU (-122), O/U 9
DFS Preview
Last chance to play real MLB DFS of the year so we’ve gotta go, the time is now to take one down!
Starting Pitchers
I don’t see any pitchers that are obvious scratch-offs. These guys are all in position to get deep into the game if they’re rolling, and there are no openers or any business like that.
Nola is the biggest favorite with the best matchup, which makes him the highest projection. He’s also in the best form currently, if you’re into that kind of stuff. So you could certainly lock in Nola, but I could absolutely see any one of these four guys leading the slate in points. Pretty big advantage to Javier price-wise, at least $1,000 cheaper than the rest of those names. He has a 17.4% SwStr% this postseason, but he has been pretty wild with a 39.5% Ball% and a 14% BB%.
Scherzer somewhat surprisingly made the ALCS roster and pitched five days ago on the 18th, but he wasn’t very sharp with a 47.6% Strike%, a 12.7% SwStr%, and a bad .436 xwOBA allowed. That is one freaking outing, so we shouldn’t care, but it does make you pause a little bit more since he hadn’t made a start prior to that since early September. He may not be fully healthy right now. Scherzer has the name value, and people view him as a “big game pitcher”, which actually pushes me toward just completely fading him. I think there might be an edge here in playing the theory that he’s not healthy and will not pitch well while the field rosters him at a high level because of the name.
Merrill Kelly is the last guy to mention. It’s a brutal park to pitch in with that crowd, although I think the field will overrate that a bit. He gave up five barrels and three homers in his first start in Philly this series, which is going to make people not go to him. My guess is that ownership goes like this:
Nola
Javier
Scherzer
Kelly
I’m scratching off Scherzer as we talked about above, I think that’s the best DFS “game theory” angle to play, and I kind of want to be a little bit above the field on Kelly as well. So I’ll probably go largely Nola + Kelly, but I will do my best to get as many Phillies bats into all my lineups that don’t include Kelly.
Team DraftKings Projections
Rangers - 72
Phillies - 67
Astros - 63
D’Backs - 62
This is a really tight slate. Given Nola’s history, it wouldn’t be surprised to see the Diamondbacks hit him around some, but we can’t play all the hitters, we have to cut down the player pool some, and maybe following the crowd and fading D’Backs hitters is the smart way to go there, even if it is a popular route.
Catchers
1. Gabriel Moreno ($3300.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 7.1 points, 1.11 score
2. J.T. Realmuto ($4200.0) vs. Merrill Kelly: 7.59 points, 1.11 score
3. Mitch Garver ($3500.0) vs. Cristian Javier: 6.93 points, 1.09 score
4. Jonah Heim ($3000.0) vs. Cristian Javier: 6.04 points, 0.96 score
5. Martin Maldonado ($2700.0) vs. Max Scherzer: 4.01 points, 0.61 score
First Base
1. Bryce Harper ($5900.0) vs. Merrill Kelly: 9.31 points, 1.14 score
2. Christian Walker ($4400.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 7.65 points, 1.02 score
3. Nathaniel Lowe ($3700.0) vs. Cristian Javier: 7.32 points, 0.99 score
4. Jose Abreu ($4100.0) vs. Max Scherzer: 6.32 points, 0.85 score
Second Base
1. Marcus Semien ($5100.0) vs. Cristian Javier: 9.03 points, 1.13 score
2. Bryson Stott ($3900.0) vs. Merrill Kelly: 7.41 points, 0.99 score
3. Jose Altuve ($5600.0) vs. Max Scherzer: 8.17 points, 0.99 score
4. Ketel Marte ($4500.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 7.75 points, 0.98 score
Third Base
1. Josh Jung ($4000.0) vs. Cristian Javier: 6.94 points, 1.01 score
2. Alex Bregman ($4600.0) vs. Max Scherzer: 7.37 points, 0.99 score
3. Alec Bohm ($3800.0) vs. Merrill Kelly: 6.84 points, 0.95 score
4. Evan Longoria ($2900.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 5.53 points, 0.93 score
Shortstop
1. Corey Seager ($6200.0) vs. Cristian Javier: 9.87 points, 1.2 score
2. Trea Turner ($6000.0) vs. Merrill Kelly: 8.62 points, 1.05 score
3. Jeremy Pena ($3300.0) vs. Max Scherzer: 5.74 points, 0.83 score
4. Geraldo Perdomo ($3000.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 5.26 points, 0.74 score
Outfield
1. Kyle Schwarber ($5000.0) vs. Merrill Kelly: 9.11 points, 1.21 score
2. Corbin Carroll ($5400.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 9.3 points, 1.2 score
3. Leody Taveras ($3100.0) vs. Cristian Javier: 7.76 points, 1.16 score
4. Adolis Garcia ($5200.0) vs. Cristian Javier: 9.03 points, 1.15 score
5. Michael Brantley ($3200.0) vs. Max Scherzer: 7.89 points, 1.14 score
6. Yordan Alvarez ($6300.0) vs. Max Scherzer: 9.41 points, 1.11 score
7. Kyle Tucker ($4900.0) vs. Max Scherzer: 8.51 points, 1.1 score
8. Evan Carter ($4300.0) vs. Cristian Javier: 8.88 points, 1.07 score
9. Tommy Pham ($3400.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 6.76 points, 1.01 score
10. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3200.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 6.56 points, 0.98 score
11. Brandon Marsh ($3100.0) vs. Merrill Kelly: 6.47 points, 0.93 score
12. Alek Thomas ($2800.0) vs. Aaron Nola: 5.83 points, 0.88 score
13. Nick Castellanos ($4800.0) vs. Merrill Kelly: 6.61 points, 0.88 score
14. Mauricio Dubon ($2700.0) vs. Max Scherzer: 5.73 points, 0.82 score
15. Johan Rojas ($2800.0) vs. Merrill Kelly: 5.22 points, 0.72 score
Game by Game Previews
ARI @ PHI
I haven’t seen many betting spots to feel good about this whole postseason. The lines have been sharp, as you might expect.
I was personally expecting the Phillies to be a bigger favorite than they are, but it all seems pretty fair. There are lot of these over 0.5 H+R+RBI lines you could go after, those will hit pretty often just given how many different ways there are to win that, but you’ll get mostly -150 or worse on those.
Projected Game Score:
PHI 4.56 - ARI 4.0
PHI 53.3% To Win
Vegas O/U: 8
Projected Total: 8.56
2023 Pitcher Stats
Aaron Nola: 32 GS, 3087 Pitches, 25.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 12.8 SwStr%, 49.6 Strike%, 32.8 Ball%, 43.1 GB%, 8 Brl%
Merrill Kelly: 30 GS, 2803 Pitches, 25.9 K%, 9.4 BB%, 13.2 SwStr%, 48.2 Strike%, 35.3 Ball%, 45.7 GB%, 8 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Aaron Nola (PHI): 88.0 Pitches 5.46 IP, 5.2 H, 2.5 ER, 5.4 K, 1.4 BB, 15.16 FPts
Merrill Kelly (ARI): 84.0 Pitches 5.26 IP, 4.9 H, 2.6 ER, 5.5 K, 2.1 BB, 14.03 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Aaron Nola - 5.5 strikeouts
Merrill Kelly - 5.5 strikeouts
ARI Hitter Projections
1. Corbin Carroll: 4.47 PA, 1.05 H, 1.75 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.29 SB, 9.3 FPts
2. Ketel Marte: 4.39 PA, 1.01 H, 1.69 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.04 SB, 7.75 FPts
3. Gabriel Moreno: 4.31 PA, 1.09 H, 1.6 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.05 SB, 7.1 FPts
4. Christian Walker: 4.16 PA, 0.93 H, 1.74 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.03 SB, 7.65 FPts
5. Tommy Pham: 3.98 PA, 0.83 H, 1.4 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.11 SB, 6.76 FPts
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: 3.98 PA, 0.97 H, 1.58 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.56 FPts
7. Alek Thomas: 3.76 PA, 0.86 H, 1.35 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.06 SB, 5.83 FPts
8. Evan Longoria: 3.47 PA, 0.67 H, 1.27 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.01 SB, 5.53 FPts
9. Geraldo Perdomo: 3.5 PA, 0.65 H, 0.92 TB, 0.04 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.26 FPts
PHI Hitter Projections
1. Kyle Schwarber: 4.45 PA, 0.8 H, 1.78 TB, 0.27 HR, 0.03 SB, 9.11 FPts
2. Trea Turner: 4.32 PA, 1.05 H, 1.73 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.21 SB, 8.62 FPts
3. Bryce Harper: 4.19 PA, 0.99 H, 1.79 TB, 0.18 HR, 0.11 SB, 9.31 FPts
4. Alec Bohm: 4.14 PA, 1.0 H, 1.52 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.84 FPts
5. Bryson Stott: 4.03 PA, 1.0 H, 1.52 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.14 SB, 7.41 FPts
6. J.T. Realmuto: 3.91 PA, 0.91 H, 1.6 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.13 SB, 7.59 FPts
7. Nick Castellanos: 3.81 PA, 0.89 H, 1.53 TB, 0.14 HR, 0.05 SB, 6.61 FPts
8. Brandon Marsh: 3.59 PA, 0.77 H, 1.24 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.09 SB, 6.47 FPts
9. Johan Rojas: 3.42 PA, 0.72 H, 0.97 TB, 0.03 HR, 0.15 SB, 5.22 FPts
Best Bets
Evan Longoria ARI - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-120.0) - 0.178 value
Geraldo Perdomo ARI - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-120.0) - 0.173 value
Alek Thomas ARI - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-145.0) - 0.17 value
Brandon Marsh PHI - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (-160.0) - 0.161 value
Geraldo Perdomo ARI - HitterK Under 0.5 (+200.0) - 0.139 value
Corbin Carroll ARI - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (+110.0) - 0.122 value
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ARI - HitterK Under 0.5 (+190.0) - 0.113 value
Bryce Harper PHI - H+R+RBI Over 1.5 (-105.0) - 0.102 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) OF $5000: 9.11 Proj, 1.21 Score
Corbin Carroll (ARI) OF $5400: 9.3 Proj, 1.2 Score
Bryce Harper (PHI) 1B $5900: 9.31 Proj, 1.14 Score
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) C $4200: 7.59 Proj, 1.11 Score
Gabriel Moreno (ARI) C $3300: 7.1 Proj, 1.11 Score
TEX @ HOU
I put Cristian Javier down for 85 pitches, but DraftKings sportsbook seems to not be that high on him as my model is telling us to attack the overs on his workload. I’m not confident in him, he’s been pretty mediocre for most of the year and even in this good postseason stretch - he hasn’t shown great command. So I think the Rangers could work some walks and hit a couple of dingers (like they do) early on and chase him - but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he shuts them down for six innings.
So I’m not really helping anybody here. All things said, I’d like to bet the over on this game - because I have serious questions about both starters.
My for fun parlay of the day would be Phillies moneyline + over 9 in this game.
Or you could do a same game parlay with Javier and Scherzer both going over 5.5 strikeouts and the game staying under 8 runs or something like that - play the correlation that if both pitchers are on their game (very possible), they get deep into the game, rack up strikeouts, and the runs scored in the game stay low.
Projected Game Score:
TEX 5.22 - HOU 4.18
TEX 55.5% To Win
Vegas O/U: 9
Projected Total: 9.4
2023 Pitcher Stats
Max Scherzer: 27 GS, 2465 Pitches, 27.9 K%, 7.3 BB%, 14.6 SwStr%, 50.2 Strike%, 33.7 Ball%, 33.7 GB%, 8 Brl%
Cristian Javier: 31 GS, 2882 Pitches, 23.1 K%, 9.0 BB%, 13.0 SwStr%, 45.8 Strike%, 38.2 Ball%, 26.1 GB%, 9 Brl%
Pitcher Projections
Max Scherzer (TEX): 80.0 Pitches 4.99 IP, 4.8 H, 2.3 ER, 4.1 K, 1.5 BB, 11.66 FPts
Cristian Javier (HOU): 85.0 Pitches 5.25 IP, 4.9 H, 2.7 ER, 4.4 K, 2.6 BB, 11.45 FPts
K Prop Lines - DraftKings
Max Scherzer - 4.5 strikeouts
Cristian Javier - 4.5 strikeouts
TEX Hitter Projections
1. Marcus Semien: 4.7 PA, 1.04 H, 1.73 TB, 0.15 HR, 0.15 SB, 9.03 FPts
2. Corey Seager: 4.57 PA, 1.18 H, 2.14 TB, 0.21 HR, 0.02 SB, 9.87 FPts
3. Evan Carter: 4.53 PA, 0.89 H, 1.51 TB, 0.13 HR, 0.12 SB, 8.88 FPts
4. Adolis Garcia: 4.37 PA, 0.91 H, 1.72 TB, 0.2 HR, 0.15 SB, 9.03 FPts
5. Leody Taveras: 4.29 PA, 0.99 H, 1.48 TB, 0.08 HR, 0.15 SB, 7.76 FPts
6. Josh Jung: 4.14 PA, 0.88 H, 1.56 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.03 SB, 6.94 FPts
7. Nathaniel Lowe: 4.07 PA, 0.91 H, 1.42 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.32 FPts
8. Mitch Garver: 3.92 PA, 0.73 H, 1.36 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.93 FPts
9. Jonah Heim: 3.65 PA, 0.75 H, 1.24 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.02 SB, 6.04 FPts
HOU Hitter Projections
1. Jose Altuve: 4.35 PA, 0.98 H, 1.68 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.1 SB, 8.17 FPts
2. Michael Brantley: 4.37 PA, 1.21 H, 1.84 TB, 0.11 HR, 0.01 SB, 7.89 FPts
3. Alex Bregman: 4.24 PA, 0.92 H, 1.5 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.02 SB, 7.37 FPts
4. Yordan Alvarez: 4.16 PA, 1.03 H, 2.03 TB, 0.24 HR, 0.01 SB, 9.41 FPts
5. Jose Abreu: 4.03 PA, 0.87 H, 1.43 TB, 0.12 HR, 0.0 SB, 6.32 FPts
6. Kyle Tucker: 3.92 PA, 0.93 H, 1.66 TB, 0.16 HR, 0.18 SB, 8.51 FPts
7. Mauricio Dubon: 3.83 PA, 0.88 H, 1.35 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.05 SB, 5.73 FPts
8. Jeremy Pena: 3.71 PA, 0.8 H, 1.24 TB, 0.09 HR, 0.08 SB, 5.74 FPts
9. Martin Maldonado: 3.31 PA, 0.51 H, 0.92 TB, 0.1 HR, 0.0 SB, 4.01 FPts
Best Bets
Cristian Javier HOU - Outs Over 12.5 (+110.0) - 0.314 value
Cristian Javier HOU - Walks Over 1.5 (-125.0) - 0.179 value
Jonah Heim TEX - HitterK Under 0.5 (+175.0) - 0.148 value
Kyle Tucker HOU - HitterK Under 0.5 (+145.0) - 0.141 value
Martin Maldonado HOU - H+R+RBI Over 0.5 (+110.0) - 0.137 value
Michael Brantley HOU - HitterK Under 0.5 (+105.0) - 0.137 value
Corey Seager TEX - HitterK Under 0.5 (+170.0) - 0.132 value
Alex Bregman HOU - HitterK Under 0.5 (+120.0) - 0.128 value
Marcus Semien TEX - HitterK Under 0.5 (+160.0) - 0.117 value
Max Scherzer TEX - Outs Over 13.5 (-110.0) - 0.11 value
DFS Top Plays (DraftKings)
Corey Seager (TEX) SS $6200: 9.87 Proj, 1.2 Score
Leody Taveras (TEX) OF $3100: 7.76 Proj, 1.16 Score
Adolis Garcia (TEX) OF $5200: 9.03 Proj, 1.15 Score
Michael Brantley (HOU) OF $3200: 7.89 Proj, 1.14 Score
Marcus Semien (TEX) 2B $5100: 9.03 Proj, 1.13 Score
And now officially, for real this time, it’s curtains for the game previews. You will see these again next Opening Day in March!