Players to Target in High Replacement Level Leagues
A look at my favorite risky players to take in leagues in leagues that ease the pain of injuries
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This is the second post in a series where I look at players that stand out in non-standard leagues. The first one I covered was daily changes leagues. Check that one out if you play in any leagues where you can change your lineup every day rather than once per week.
This post will focus on the leagues where you have a bunch of IL spots and a pretty high replacement level on the waiver wire.
Take Jacob deGrom. In order to get him this year, you’ll have to use a top 60 pick on him. That means he’ll be one of the first five players on your roster and almost surely your first or second starting pitcher.
If you’re playing in an NFBC draft-and-hold league where there are no trades or waivers, you will be pretty much eliminated if deGrom goes out for the year in May or June again this year. You want all of your primary SPs to stay mostly healthy to win those types of leagues.
Conversely, consider a 10-team league where you can stash deGrom on your IL. You won’t be able to replace all of deGrom in that situation, but you’re likely to be able to get 50-60% of his value back. That makes the risk a lot more palatable.
So he’s the first example. Let’s go through some other names who have low ADP primarily because of injury risk. I am not telling you to go ahead and take all of these guys. You’re best off restricting yourself to 1-3 of them.
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
ADP: 31
Acuna should be back in May. There are real questions about how many bases he’ll steal this year, but it’s not as though steals is the only way this guy contributes. I don’t think even a lingering knee thing will keep him away from hitting a homer or two every week and scoring a ton of runs along the way.
There’s a re-injury risk, for sure, but he fits this post very well, even while still going in the first four rounds.
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 101
You could probably just go and draft yourself the first seven starting pitchers on the Dodgers because it’s a good bet we’ll see 10+ guys make starts for them this year.
Glasnow is a top-ten starting pitcher in the game when he’s healthy. Of course, he never stays healthy, but if you can squeeze 15-20 starts out of him along with the replacement value, you’re not in a bad spot for an 8th or 9th round pick.
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
ADP: 114
Yelich’s season ended in late July after he elected to go for back surgery. That decision was made in the hopes that it would give him fuller and longer relief from his nagging back issues. I’m not sure if that will happen, but it seems like he’ll be ready to go for Opening Day.
The main point to make is that Yelich was smashing last year:
314 PA, .315/.406/.504, 11 HR, 21 SB
If we somehow knew he’d play 140+ games, he’d be top 40 pick. The steals and runs are elite. And he’s a huge boost in OBP leagues. He has one of the highest walk rates in the league.
He’s not super cheap, and there is the chance that the back stuff effects his performance without actually putting him on the IL. But I expect Yelich to be a phenomenal contributor while he’s on the field.
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
ADP: 119
I think he’ll post really strong power numbers while he’s healthy. That’s not a slam dunk since we haven’t seen a ton of Lewis in the Majors, but it’s a fine enough bet at ADP 120. You might just end up with 125 games, 25 homers, and a .275 batting average. That works very nicely when you include the replacement value that comes when/if he hits the IL.
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
ADP: 120
This is the lowest price we’ve ever seen on Mike Trout. He played just 29 games last year, but at least he’s coming into camp healthy again this year. People want to think there’s a 1% chance that he can play 120 games. But that’s not the case. It’s at least 30% or so, and he’ll very likely perform like a top-20 hitter when he’s in the lineup.
If you feel good about the outfield replacement in your league, Trout is a no-brainer this year.
Five more to go, but first, we hit the paywall! Take advantage of the big yearly discount today and get everything I’m doing here for just $59 for the year.