Relievers to Target in Holds Leagues
Analysis on your draft strategy should change when you have holds as a category
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One of the biggest advantages in a category fantasy baseball league comes when you have holds as a category and you’re playing in a league where most of the league doesn’t know how to handle that properly.
I would imagine that most people in holds leagues handle it fine, but there are certainly a few dozen people reading this who this will help.
I personally don’t play in any holds leagues, so I’ve never cared to write about it much. But several people have asked me about it, so I’m here to sacrifice for you. I’m basically laying down my life for you right now.
Let’s talk about some high-level numbers. The basics. Here is the definition of a hold:
There can be multiple holds in a single game. That’s not the case with saves. Therefore, there are more holds than saves every year. Last year:
Saves: 1,224
Holds: 2,562
There were 52% more holds than saves. 39 pitchers earned at least 10 saves, and 100 pitchers earned at least 10 holds.
The bottom line: holds are easy to find.
In a league where saves plus holds replaces saves as a category, all relievers are significantly less valuable. This gives you an edge in the draft if not everybody realizes that.
Here’s the full data for all relievers who earned at least one save or hold.
You can see that three of the top in SV+HLD were not closers. Think of where Emmanuel Clase and Bryan Abreu were probably drafted last year. Even in a sharp league, there’s no doubt there was a ton of space between those two, if Abreu was even drafted! And yet, he was right there with the elite guys in the category.
In a saves + holds league, the lesson to be learned is do not pay for relievers. There’s no reason to use a costly draft pick for an elite closer. Let someone else do it. You’ll be able to catch up just fine with much cheaper options.
What about ratios? The best ratios come from closers on average, surely. But these holds leaders are typically elite arms who could be closers; they’re just stuck behind some bigger names. The ratio should be fine. Also, ratios don’t matter nearly as much for relievers since they’re throwing such a small percentage of your team’s total innings. Don’t get bogged down by reliever ratios; just target the saves and holds.
I put together this Google Sheet last night using ATC Projections in the FanGraphs Auction Calculator.
What I did was get relief pitcher auction values for three league types.
Saves Only Leagues
Saves + Holds Leagues
Saves AND Holds Leagues
That third one is the (rare) league where you have both categories separate. There are negative values in there because some of the projected ratios send guys below zero. Don’t let that mess with you; just view it as a ranked list rather than worry about what the number actually is.
Your league draft will certainly look a lot different than the ADP shown in the data. These ADPs are taken from NFBC drafts where holds is not a thing. But still, there’s little doubt that the elite closers won’t be the first relievers off the board in your draft, so we can use the ADP as a general guidepost.
To make this as simple as I can, you should follow these rules. Draft pitchers who are
Very good (high K%, proven track record in high leverage situations)
Cheap in drafts
On good teams
Using that guidance, here are 15 names I’d be looking for:
Cade Smith, Guardians
Jason Adam, Padres
Griffin Jax, Twins
Matt Strahm, Phillies
Tanner Scott, Dodgers
Tyler Holton, Tigers
Bryan Abreu, Astros
Orion Kerkering, Phillies
A.J. Puk, Diamondbacks
Kirby Yates, Dodgers
Jeremiah Estrada, Padres
Robert Garcia, Rangers
Justin Martinez, Diamondbacks
Pete Fairbanks, Rays
Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox
This doesn’t mean I won’t take one of the top dozen or so closers. You’re unlikely to have to use a top-ten pick on a closer. And if that’s how your draft is going, just let everybody else do it - them all massively overpaying for closers is helping you anyways.
It makes the most sense to me to get a solid tier three or tier four closer (Andres Munoz, Jhoan Duran, Ryan Walker, Kenley Jansen) and then pair him with names from that list. If you need to go deeper, the full projected saves and holds data is below.
The main point is don’t overpay. If you think someone is going to take Cade Smith in the 15th round, don’t jump them - let them do it. It’s easy to find holds. There’s no reason to pay for saves or holds.
Full Save + Holds Projections
I used ATC because that system is simply better than I am at projecting pitchers, especially relievers. There will be misses, for sure, but there will also be a ton of holds to be had on waivers. Here you go:
Projection-wise, you’ll see the saves guys at the top. There absolutely will be several guys who get into the top ten primarily with holds, but it’s harder to project that exactly, so the saves guys end up on top. This doesn’t change anything I’ve said above.
Use that table to sort by holds and target the cheap guys.
Very Cheap Targets
Tyler Rogers, Cincinnati Reds
Jose Butto, New York Mets
Yennier Cano, Baltimore Orioles
Jared Koenig, Milwaukee Brewers
Hunter Harvey, Kansas City Royals
Yennier Cano, Baltimore Orioles
Hunter Gaddis, Cleveland Guardians
I’ve done it. I’ve covered holds leagues targets. I’d advise you to pay more attention to my general strategy talk rather than the individual player targets. A lot of weird and random stuff is going to happen this season, and as long as you’re in a league that rosters fewer than 400 players during the season, you’ll be able to catch up in saves + holds on waivers. It’s easy.