Reader Questions & Player Analysis

I catch up on reader questions submitted through the link in the daily notes, and dive deeper into certain players.

Jon A

Jul 19, 2023

Players / Topics Mentioned (in order)

Yainer Diaz
Gavin Williams
Joey Votto
Will Benson
Corey Julks
Learning Python
wRC+ vs. Other Stats
Ketel Marte
Cody Bellinger
Marcus Stroman
CJ Abrams
Ty France

Tim asks:

Has Yainer Diaz done enough to garner full playing time even when Yordan returns?

This question was asked 10 days ago, which I guess isn’t all that long ago in baseball time since we had those four days for the break. But yes, Yainer has been in the lineup most days since Yordan has been out, and he’s shown what he can do.

What I’m not going to do is show you what he’s done in that short sample, we’re going to talk in big samples here - because it’s starting to really annoy me that fantasy analyst bros make recommendations based on like the last seven days and stuff - that’s dumb.

Yainer on the year:

.267/.288/.487, 10 HR, 19.8 PA/HR, 13.2% Brl%, 19.7% K%, 3.0% BB%

So he’s one of the most aggressive hitters in the league, swinging near 60% of the time.

That results in a crazy high chase rate, and overall he just doesn’t have a good swing profile.

We learned in this analysis piece from a couple of weeks ago that a high swing rate doesn’t damn you to fantasy dudness, but it does keep you away from studness. You can easily survive a high swing rate as long as you’re making it count when you’re making contact, and Yainer certainly has been doing that - and in his case, the contact rate is high enough to keep the K% down.

So I think he’s certainly good enough at hitting to justify a spot in almost any lineup in the league. However, the Astros are one of the tougher ones to get into. He has caught 20 games this year, so he’ll get in there like that - but no, I don’t think he’s an everyday player when Yordan returns. I doubt they want Yordan to do much in the outfield, and clearly, they’re committed to Martin Maldonado for whatever reason. So that will result in a start or two a week behind the plate for Diaz, and maybe an extra one or two starts giving Yordan a day off - or maybe he can make an appearance the rare times Yordan plays some outfield - but overall my answer would be no, I don’t think he’ll play enough for standard league consideration if Yordan is healthy.

Brandon Foster asks

How do we measure Gavin Williams at this point? He doesn’t have what I would call a bad start, but all we have to go on is two matchups against KC, one against Oakland, and one against the Braves that could have been worse. I own a lot of stock in rookie pitchers but it seems most people rank the rookies among the other rookies, that seems easy. I have Perez, Williams and Abbott, which seem like the cream of the crop (right now) but how do they compare to pitchers that have been at it for 2-3 years? That would be a helpful measuring stick, since I’ve seen those players for an extended amount of time and I know what the strengths and weaknesses are.

We have a couple more starts from Williams since this was asked, so let’s take a look.

5 GS
12.6% SwStr%
48.8% Strike%
32.5% Ball%
19.2% K%
9.2% BB%
4.7% Brl%
.324 xwOBA
39% GB%
29% LD%
26% FB%

The SwStr% is okay, and I think that K% should probably come up a few points. A 12.6% SwStr% is a half point above average, so you’d expect a 23-25% K% if we’re going by that. The best thing about Williams is the super low Ball%.

The pitch mix:

Really good marks on the four-seamer, which is very important to see. The question is, does he have a secondary pitch that can do enough? The slider isn’t awful there at 15.1% SwStr% and 51% Strike%, but it’s a few points below where we’d really want it to be (league average SwStr% on a slider is 16.3%).

So overall I think this is good for Williams. It’s a good foundation to build on, but it doesn’t seem like a guy that can be near a fantasy ace in the short term.

Your bigger question is a very good and interesting one. It’s easy to compare Gavin Williams to Andrew Abbott and Eury Perez and the rest, but it’s harder to know where to rank him when you’re looking at like Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, etc. But those two names are about where I’d put him. I had him between 55 and 60 in the Rest of Season SP Ranks, and if I were to update that today, I think he’d go up 5-10 spots since he’s definitely going to be needed in that rotation now with Bieber out and the really good signs with the Ball%.

Brandon also asks

Can Joey Votto continue his recent success? He’s obviously on a heater the last week and won’t continue at that rate, but what about ROS? Is this just one of those things like when old people wake up feeling great about two days a week but the rest of the time they’re “under the weather”? No offense to old people, they’re great, I myself am probably considered old to some people, including Votto.

This question was asked on July 9th so that explains the “heater” talk. Votto and the Reds haven’t been good coming out of the break, but that’s like 3 games so let’s not mention it.

Votto now for the year:

77 PA
.231/.351/.600
7 HR
21.4% Brl%
47.6% HardHit%
29.9% K%
11.7% BB%
68% Contact%
40% GB%
38% FB%

This looks a lot like the Joey Votto of 2021 when he just came into that year clearly set on hitting dingers to keep his career going. A 38% FB% and a barrel rate anywhere north of 12% will play quite well in Great American, of course, so I would say he’s someone that should be started in plenty of fantasy leagues.

The playing time question is here now with CES promoted. We’ll see what the Reds do with that, but the most likely thing would seem to be just kind of a wheel system where a different guy sits every day. That should keep everybody afloat if that’s the case, but maybe Votto as the old man gets two days off a week instead of just one. I don’t know, but it does seem like he’ll hit some homers - since that’s all he’s been trying to do since BC (before Corona).

Eli says:

1. Will Benson
2. Corey Julks

Another Redleg - what a team! Benson this year:

143 PA
.287/.392/.484
4 HR
10.3% Brl%
24.5% K%
14.7% BB%
73% Cont%
38% GB%
28% FB%
8 SB
20.5% SB Att%

Another guy getting the ball in the air, barreling at a good rate, and limiting the strikeouts. Pretty encouraging early profile I’d say.

The reason for doubt is that he had just an .808 OPS in the minors, which would cast some doubt about his current .875 mark in the Majors. I’d say he’s going to have a lower home run rate than we’d like, but not nothing - and the steals are there.

I think there will be some regression toward the .800 OPS mark, and like with any young player - things could go very wrong in a hurry. He’s not a priority guy for me.

As for Corey Julks, man I haven’t looked at this guy a single time this year. And now that I look at him, I know why I haven’t! A .732 OPS with a 4.3% Brl% and a 24% K%? What’s there to like? Easy fade, moving on!

Josh D says

Absolutely love your stuff! Wish I had your Python skills that's for sure. Anyway, my question is what do you think about wRC+ as a measure of a hitters skill? How about vs xwOBA?

Many such cases of people wishing they knew Python, many such cases. People ask me about learning all the time and the honest truth is that it’s not an easy thing to learn. I think most people could learn it if they dedicate enough time to it, but there are definitely some people that just don’t have that kind of brain. This isn’t me trying to sound superior to anybody, it’s just something that is much more easily learned from someone with an analytical brain rather than the alternative, which is scientifically called “artsy fartsy”. But if you’re half-decent with numbers and logic, you can do it. Just be ready to dedicate like a few hundred hours to learning - and don’t give up!

wRC+ is probably the gold standard for real-life production. It’s adjusted to the league and park context, and it accounts for more than just how the ball leaves your bat (which is mostly what xwOBA will tell you).

But for fantasy purposes, we don’t want to adjust for park. If a guy plays half of his games in Coors Field, that’s a plus - we don’t want to take that away from him. I don’t look much at wRC+ myself, but admittedly that’s because it’s not on my dashboards - and that’s because I don’t know how to calculate it myself and don’t really care to figure it out!

I like Brl%, K%, GB%, and xwOBA. Those are the ones I talk most about, as you might have noticed!

Matt asks

Ketel Marte

It’s been a bumpy ride for Marte. He had an all-time fantasy season back in 2019 but then disappointed in 2021 and 2022. 2022 had a lot to do with injury, but 2023 has been closer to 2019.

He’s on pace for 25 homers again with a really nice .849 OPS and a 9.2% Brl%.

The key has been healthy, some good fortune (BA being his xBA pretty significantly), and a better supporting cast. Here are his StatCast numbers from his career:

We don’t see a ton of differences there in the 2023 column. He’s around the same 46% GB% we’re used to, and the K% isn’t much different than what we’ve seen in the past. He’s just a very good hitter, but it does seem like maybe the HR pace will slow up as we finish out the year. He’s probably a sell right now rather than a buy, but you’ll be fine just starting him and riding it out - it’s nice to have a reliably good batting average guy in the middle of a good lineup.

From Jason H:

Is this the Jason H that I know? Is it? My forever first and favorite boss man? If not, pardon me, Jason H.

Bellinger, he’s on a tear but statcast isn’t great, is this a legit bounce back or just a hot streak

It sure looked like he had found the swing again with his new club in April when he started the year with an OPS well above 1.000.

But then came the downswing where he looked like his normal self, but now look at him - back to a 1.200+ OPS over these 15-day rolling windows!

The problem is that his season barrel rate is 5.2%. That’s not going to get it done. Maybe he’s been hurt, and now he’s healthy - and that will come back up, but I don’t know - it’s not encouraging.

I know Bellinger steals, and that is meaningful - but I don’t know if we really want to start an outfielder like him without being able to get some good homer production. His xwOBA is low at .303 and the hard-hit rate is just 29%. It doesn’t seem like he’s swinging the bat very fast. Even in this recent streak where he has a 1.234 OPS since 6/29, he has only a 3.9% Brl% and a 23.5% Hard%. He’s done that mostly by just putting everything in play (9% K%) and getting lucky:

So my answer is this is just a temporary run and he’s probably still not any good (for fantasy purposes, at least).

Jack Lindsay asks

First, thank you for your hard work on buys and sells for all 30 teams. I just had a question regarding Marcus Stroman. While I understand that his K% is low and a lower BABIP doesn't bode well, wouldn't a 2nd highest GB% as well as calling Wrigley Field home negate some of these issues? At least as an ERA and WHIP asset. Thanks

A super high GB% absolutely helps with ERA and therefore with quality starts, and maybe even wins. It doesn’t necessarily help with WHIP, and Stroman has never been a good WHIP guy with a walk rate that goes between average and mediocre.

Basically, Stroman is just who he’s always been - and he’s benefitting a lot from the positive side of the variance this year. The 58% GB% keeps him competitive, and it’s not like the 21% is completely awful - but overall he has a 12% K-BB% and that’s just not going to turn out well most of the time.

On the park note - is Wrigley Field considered a pitcher’s park or something? It has always seemed extremely neutral to me, but maybe I’m missing something on that point.

I said to sell high on Stroman because he has a great ERA with a bad K-BB% - so that’s just always a sell high. The problem is, you’re probably in a sharp league - and people know this stuff already. So you can’t always actually get a “sell high” return for a known commodity like Stroman - and I’m absolutely not advising that anybody dump him for just anything they can get.

Mark D:

Is CJ Abrams a worthy pickup or leave on the wire for a 12 team league

Another anonymous comment came in about Abrams as well. So yeah, here’s the explosion that we’ve seen:

If there was a legitimate “turnaround”, it would have started around June 20th. Since then:

79 PA
.347/.392/.569
2 HR
6.8% Brl%
17.7% K%
3.8% BB%
83% Contact%
.322 xwOBA
42% GB%
.404 BABIP
.416 wOBA
.322 xwOBA
.287 xBA

He’s been actually better lately, no question - but there is a ton of good fortune here, it would seem. Even if he’s suddenly a 7% Brl%, 18% K% guy - that makes him more “okay” than “good” in the fantasy game - and I have serious doubts he’s actually this guy for real.

He’s 22, so we can’t write anything in stone about him - but I’ve seen nothing so far in his career to make me want to have him on a fantasy team.

Poor Nationals, Abrams/Gray/Ruiz was supposed to be like a franchise-changing haul - doesn’t seem to be the case so far.

My guy Michael Stovik asked two questions

Michael King - worth the bad ratios in a SOLDS league

and

Ty France - any hope for a turn around

For the first one, I don’t do relievers - I’m sorry. I do a lot of stuff every day, more than most people - but I can’t make any more time for reliever talk. My unofficial, unaffiliated in-house (but not actually in-house) contact on this is BullpenGuru. Shoot him a tweet.

As for Ty France, man I haven’t heard a peep about that guy this year! He must really be sucking! Let’s see

388 PA
.251/.322/.374
7 HR
6.1% Brl%
19% K%
.310 xwOBA

We will now establish the TY FRANCE RULE. Do not draft any player who does not either

a) hit homers
b) steal bases
c) project for an insanely high batting average

I could have left off point c there because batting average is one of the tougher things in the league to project - but I don’t really want to say “never draft Luis Arraez” either. But if I’m being honest, I’ll never draft Luis Arraez - so the real TY FRANCE RULE is just don’t ever draft a player who does not either

a) hit homers
b) steal bases

and by “hit homers” I don’t mean he’ll hit 12-17 a year and by “steal bases” I don’t mean he’ll steal 10-15 a year.

You gotta do something well to be a useful fantasy player. There are the exceptions that do a little bit of everything and it works out - but the general rule is sound.

You drafted Ty France for what exactly? To try to get a good batting average with a decent RBI total and maybe 15 homers. But even if he limps to 15 homers, that’s not really moving the needle - and the batting average is just not something you can rely on - especially with a slow guy like him.

So don’t draft the Ty France types. Drop him now, forgive yourself, and do better next year.

That is it for the mailbag, it’s empty now! Feels good! Keep the questions coming, just give me a day or two to rest now.

JonPGH MLB Data Warehouse

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