Rest of Season Ranks - Starting Pitcher
A summer series of posts re-ranking players by position
This is the toughest position to do, but I did what I could. The problem is that we have to fight against recency bias so hard. 10 weeks ago we were all ranking Corbin Burnes at #1 or #2, but now he has a K-BB% under 15% and just hasn’t been himself.
So who is he most likely to be in the second half? The guy he was from 2021-2022 in 60 starts, or the guy that he’s been so far in 18 starts most recently? And what do we do with all of these rookies!?
I did my best, feel free, as always, to roast me in the comments - although I do now realize that I’m only allowing comments from paid subs, so you have to actually pay me to roast me, which sounds morally bankrupt - but I like money too.
I have 100 pitchers ranked here. I left out the guys that are injured for the longer term, so you’ll be missing a few guys there that are several weeks away from a return, but I did rank most of the guys that are expected back within the next few weeks. Off we go.
Tier One
Spencer Strider
I didn’t actually do the lone man in tier one thing with Acuna like I should have, but I’m doing it with Strider. The most important thing a pitcher can do is have a high strikeout rate, and nobody is close to Strider in that regard. The K% vs. BB% plot looks like a ticket website for a concert where Strider is showing you where the stage is and the rest of the pitchers are the available seats. It’s ridiculous:
So that’s all I have to say about Strider, clear #1 right now.
Tier Two
Gerrit Cole
Shane McClanahan
Kevin Gausman
Shohei Ohtani
Joe Ryan
Tyler Glasnow
You can shuffle these names around in almost any order and be fine, but here’s what I landed on. These are all elite K-BB% guys, with the [temporary?] exception of McClanahan who is down at 16% this year. His 17% SwStr% is second-best though, so I imagine he’s in for a higher K% in the second half provided he stays healthy (he’s currently at 26%, a handful of points below expectations).
You could make the case that Gausman has been the second-best pitcher in the league this year with his sweet 26% K-BB%, but there’s always some inconsistency with him given the reliance on the splitter, and whatever - #4 is a pretty aggressive ranking.
I’m fully in on Glasnow, but it’s possible I’m not penalizing him enough for the fact that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. There are only about 15 starts left to stay healthy for, and I have very little doubt that he doesn’t end up as a top-tier pitcher if he does stay healthy through that.
Tier Three
Zack Wheeler
Max Scherzer
Pablo Lopez
Framber Valdez
Corbin Burnes
These guys could all go up into the next tier, but I think with each guy there is reason to be a bit lower on that group.
Wheeler’s GB% is lower than normal this year and the K% is down a bit at 27%. Scherzer has these minor little injuries that seem to creep up and he gets buried by the long ball quite a bit.
Lopez hasn’t pitched at this level previously in his career (23.9% K-BB% right now), so I have a little bit of doubt that he can keep that going despite how awesome he’s been this year (15.7% SwStr%, 52% Strike%).
Valdez has gotten better every year, but he still comes up a little bit short in those K/9 or K% leagues with his 26% K% which might tick down a bit in the second half (just a 12.3% SwStr%).
And then Burnes I just can’t figure out. If he hadn’t been so good in 2021-2022, he wouldn’t be anywhere near this tier with his 12.8% SwStr% and 23.1% K% this year - that’s weird stuff, but I’m not going to be shocked if he ramps that up to a 14% SwStr% and 30% K% in the second half given the track record.
Tier Four
Blake Snell
Luis Castillo
Zac Gallen
Clayton Kershaw
Carlos Rodon
This is the last tier, I think, of guys that I could see easily pitching like a tier one pitcher from here on. The upside drops off a bit after this tier.
I hesitate to put Blake Snell this high given his propensity to have streaks like the one he is on right now just to revert to the guy who can’t throw strikes, but since May 1st he’s right there with Strider (and Glasnow - he’s the other dot up there) in terms of K%
If I (still) had any Snell, I would definitely be looking to trade him for a different top-25 SP just given the consistency issues, but it’s going amazingly well for him right now.
The last four there are guys that bonafide aces, but some have walk issues at times (Castillo), and some have health/workload concerns (Kershaw & Rodon).
Tier Five
Logan Webb
Sandy Alcantara
Logan Gilbert
Justin Steele
Yu Darvish
Aaron Nola
George Kirby
Julio Urias
Jesus Luzardo
Joe Musgrove
Justin Verlander
It’s a mixed back here, so let’s hit each guy quickly.
Webb - Still not getting many strikeouts (10.6% SwStr%, 25% K%), but the GB% and the BB% makes up for it. His upside is under most of these other names, but he’s so solid that he ends up pretty high here and I think that’s right.
Alcantara - His stuff is too good to stay down, and we’ve seen some signs of life lately. Still a very strong 13.8% SwStr% and 6.9% BB% on the year, that’ll play.
Gilbert - Has these runs of looking like one of the best pitchers in the league, and has kept the K-BB% above 20% in the first half.
Steele - I can’t explain it, but he keeps getting it done. A lower 17% K-BB% but a .322 xwOBACON which is harder and harder to blame on good luck.
Darvish & Nola - Both have K% declining, but they’ve been so solid for so long I can’t let them fall too far.
Kirby - Love the Strike% and Ball% on him, he’ll have some bad starts because he throws too many strikes some times, but he’ll also have some dominant starts and there’s certainly untapped potential still in this kid.
Urias - I don’t know, I’ve never really liked him - but I couldn’t justify going much lower on him since he’s healthy again.
Luzardo - Snell-lite, I don’t really believe he’s a 6.1% BB% guy - but maybe he is. He could be higher, and if he really finishes the year with a BB% under 8% he’s going to be pretty high in the ranks next year.
Musgrove - Slow start but he’s getting there. 24% K%, 5% BB% - pretty good after a late and bad start to the year.
Verlander - He barely made it here. He’s been bad this year (20% K%, 7% BB%), but again he’s earned the benefit of the doubt still.
Tier Six
Freddy Peralta
Lucas Giolito
Nathan Eovaldi
Lance Lynn
Braxton Garrett
James Paxton
Dylan Cease
Hunter Greene
Brayan Bello
Jon Gray
Tarik Skubal
I really like this group of pitchers. This is probably the group where I have the most guys where I’m higher than others on. I am convinced that Lance Lynn is going to have the bounce-back second half, Braxton Garrett has been right up there with the aces of the league if you ignore that ridiculously bad Braves start, Paxton and Greene would be much higher if I felt confident in their health situations, and so on.
I’m very much in on Skubal as well, he’s only made two appearances so far and has been held to four innings each time, but the stuff is legit and he was checking the K-BB% box with authority before the injury. He’s a guy I’d go acquire right now.
Tier Seven
Tyler Wells
Charlie Morton
Mitch Keller
Hunter Brown
Cristian Javier
Bailey Ober
Sonny Gray
Zach Eflin
I’m a little weird on the Astros pitchers here. Javier could probably go much lower given his 12.7% SwStr% and 21.5% K% this year, but we can’t forget what he did last year - so that guy could come back.
Brown has been really good as a rookie with a 19.7% K-BB%, but the SwStr% is low (11.9%) and you do have to wonder about them possibly skipping a turn or two from him to save the arm for the playoffs.
The rest of these guys I like just fine but can see them trending downward in the second half. The hot start for Keller was just that - a hot start that we shouldn’t have expected to keep up, a K% above 26% or so from this guy just doesn’t make a lot of sense.
The rest of the names are good and solid, but I don’t think they can really do much better than they have so far this year.
Tier Eight
Shane Bieber
Jose Berrios
Reid Detmers
Eduardo Rodriguez
Garrett Whitlock
Bobby Miller
Andrew Abbott
Bieber is just so disappointing, but this is a low, low ranking on him. But what can I do? He has a 13% K-BB% this year and an 11.3% SwStr%. He is so dependent on called strikes and that doesn’t go well most of the time.
Then we get into the rookies here, and those guys are really hard to peg. I like Miller the best still all things considered (depth of pitch arsenal, possible innings left in the tank, etc.), but I’m not going to predict with confidence that he’ll be the best of the bunch the rest of the year.
With all of the rookies, I could see them pitching like aces or pitching their way right back to the minors in every case. I’m not going to say much more than that - they’re all largely unknowns.
And you guys know I love me some Garrett Whitlock, even though he’s hurt… again.
Tier Nine
Marcus Stroman
Jordan Montgomery
Gavin Williams
Taj Bradley
Eury Perez
Merrill Kelly
Tony Gonsolin
Andrew Heaney
Yusei Kikuchi
MacKenzie Gore
Bryce Miller
Bryan Woo
Eury Perez is pretty clearly the best of the rookies on a per-inning level, but I don’t think he has more than 7 or so Major League starts left in him and he was limited to around 80 pitches in his last few.
Gavin Williams has been impressing me, but I need to see a little bit more. He has been posting an elite Ball%, but it’s less than five starts so we have to hold our horses.
Lots of those "boring veteran” names start showing up here as well.
Tier Ten
Kyle Bradish
Kenta Maeda
Chris Bassitt
Tanner Houck
Edward Cabrera
Domingo German
Tanner Bibee
More rookies and some confusing veterans that I don’t really know what to do with. These are fringe pitchers in standard leagues. The upside guys are Maeda, Cabrera, and Bibee.
Tier Eleven
Bryce Elder
Emmet Sheehan
Nick Lodolo
Kodai Senga
Michael Soroka
Jack Flaherty
Michael Wacha
Alex Cobb
JP Sears
Drean Kremer
Kutter Crawford
Seth Lugo
Griffin Canning
Reese Olson
Clarke Schmidt
Luis Severino
Too much to even talk about here, I’m wrapping this up! I’ll answer specific questions about the pitchers in the comments if anybody leaves any.
Tier Twelve
Alek Manoah
Aaron Civale
Josiah Gray
Matthew Boyd
Patrick Sandoval
Michael Kopech
J.P. France
Grayson Rodriguez
Logan Allen
Ryne Nelson
Kyle Gibson
Taijuan Walker
Dane Dunning
Jameson Taillon
Ranger Suarez
Brady Singer
There are certainly a ton of pitchers that are right there with the end of this list. It’s not like there aren’t guys out there you would easily want to start ahead of Taillon in certain matchups, but I have to end the list somewhere - and at this point I’ve probably lost most of your attention anyways.
Basically, I view all of these guys similarly. I think they’re all good enough to turn into something decent or good in the second half, but I don’t expect much from any of them - they’re all more like streamer options.
The guys I could see really elevating in the second half would be
Manoah
Grayson
Gray
Taillon
And that’s the list! Hope this titillated you for a couple of minutes. I’m pretty glad to be done with this series - goodbye!