Rest of Season Ranks - Third Base
A summer series of posts re-ranking players by position
Shortstop was the toughest one yet, but we get some relief at third base. There are certainly some tough comparisons and some rankings to dispute, but it was an easier list to come up with. Here we go.
Tier One
Jose Ramirez
Bobby Witt Jr.
Rafael Devers
This is close to what I had at the beginning of the season, but I think two names drop into tier two, which we’ll see soon.
Ramirez isn’t going anywhere at #1 despite his “down year”. He has just a dozen homers and six steals. He’s outside of the top 20 in terms of fantasy points scoring. He’s not doing anything phenomenally well, but he’s doing everything pretty well - and I expect improvement from here.
Witt Jr. has been very unlucky this year and still has more points scored than J-Ram. His K% is down to 20%, and he has 23 steals with his 12 homers. The home run rate should come up slightly, and I think so should the batting average (currently .247).
As for Devers, it’s a bit of a down year so far for him as well with an OPS just under .800. He’s homered 18 times but the batting average is down at .241 and he hasn’t stolen a base, but again - he gets points for the reliability and the fact that I think he’ll be better in the second half.
Tier Two
Austin Riley
Josh Jung
Manny Machado
Nolan Arenado
All of these guys could be the 3B1 from here on out, but to me they are a step behind those first three names. Austin Riley doesn’t steal, and that has shown us what his fantasy value can fall to if he’s not hitting a ton of homers, which he isn’t right now (just 13 this year), but I would pick him in the top 5 or so if I’m just predicting total home runs from here on out.
Josh Jung has been the best 3B in fantasy this year, but I’m just much more conscious with these young players. Maybe he’s really a total stud now, but I have trouble believing he can hold up a .270 batting average with his 28% K%, and he’s also a guy that doesn’t steal. I think he’s a threat to go really, really cold for awhile - and that keeps him out of the top tier for now.
Manny Machado is probably too low, but man he’s been BLAH with a .706 OPS and just nine homers. Weird stuff. I haven’t counted that against the others as much, but with Machado - we kind of have seen him just go away for full seasons at a time before (by going away I just mean not a top-tier 3B in fantasy), so maybe that’s happening again? I’m not sure, but the ceiling is definitely behind the guys in the top tier.
And then one more disappointment to round out the top two tiers is Nolan Arenado who is slashing just .268/.315/.471 this year with 15 homers. Another formerly held stud hitter with an OPS under .800. Tough season for these veteran 3Bs.
Tier Three
Max Muncy
Matt Chapman
Alex Bregman
Jordan Walker
Spencer Steer
Gunnar Henderson
You can see my anti-rookie bias here. I doubt many people would really be ranking Muncy, Chapman, and Bregman above that trio of rookies (or second year players, I’m not sure what Gunnar is), but I’m playing for the safety here.
We have seen Walker and Henderson struggle for good stretches, and just because they’ve had big Junes doesn’t mean I’m shoving them into the top 10 over veterans who have been putting up really solid fantasy seasons for years now. Steer I think is very good, but I don’t think he has the same ceiling as Walker/Henderson, so while we’ve seen fewer red flags with him, he certainly doesn’t have that game-breaking upper-tail outcome like Walker & Gunnar.
Tier Four
Ryan McMahon
Justin Turner
Yandy Diaz
Isaac Paredes
Ezequiel Duran
Jake Burger
Royce Lewis
Eugenio Suarez
Brandon Drury
And then there’s a huge drop-off to this tier. Still some upside players (Duran, Lewis), and still some solidity (Turner, Diaz), but mostly from here on out we’re getting those category specialists like Burger/Suarez who do one or two things and struggle with the rest.
Tier Five
Brett Baty
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Maikel Garcia
J.D. Davis
Alec Bohm
Andy Ibanez
A good week for Baty would shoot him up to the next tier, but it’s been disappointing so far. He’s not a game-breaking upside player either with his lack of speed, so I think it’ll take him a little bit of time to really be a threat to be at op-12 3B, but the talent is obviously there for me to look very silly saying all of this.
I like Garcia’s upside as well with the power/speed combo he has, but he hasn’t turned it into much fantasy production yet, and the Royals aren’t a good offense to be a part of right now.
Tier Six
Patrick Wisdom
Jon Berti
Miguel Vargas
Jeimer Candelario
Anthony Rendon
Brendan Donovan
Ha-Seong Kim
Chris Taylor
Yoan Moncada
Rodolfo Castro
Taylor Walls
Brian Anderson
I went the whole way to 40 here just cause it was easy. I don’t want to roster any of these guys in shallow leagues. The guys I could see having very useful second-halves would be Wisdom (prone to just go nuts for several weeks and Vargas, but mostly we have underwhelming guys here that don’t project to do very much.
That’s it, leave your comments and criticisms in the comments!