Regression Inspection - Pitchers
I look through three key stats that are subject to regression and find players due for either positive or negative regression in 2024.
Check out the hitters regression piece here.
We’ll go through a few key pitcher stats here that are prone to randomness and therefore regression. I’ll leave half of this one free so the masses can get a taste, but eventually there will be paywall - and you’ll need to be a paid subscriber to get access to the full data.
Anyways, thanks for being here - no use wasting more words, let’s get to the analysis.
BABIP
We had to qualify BABIP a lot with hitters since some guys can generate consistently high BABIPs by just having the skill for it. This isn’t nearly as true with pitchers, as shown with these two scatter plots:
The correlation for hitters is 0.44, and for pitchers it’s down at .08. That means that pitcher BABIP should be expected to regress back toward the league average. This makes it a lot easier for us to find regressors. So let’s look at them.
Positive Regression Expected
These are your pitchers that gave up extremely high BABIP in 2023.
A lot of these pitchers are just guys that were really horrible in 2023. You can expect a higher BABIP for arms like Wainwright and Davies since they just aren’t putting up quality pitches, but the names that are interesting to me:
Hunter Greene
Dylan Cease
Hunter Brown
Brady Singer (sort of)
Luis Severino (sort of)
I say (sort of) with those last two because I don’t think either of them are very good at this point. I only want to draft pitchers that can get strikeouts, so for a guy with a 20% K%, I don’t care so much about what their BABIP might be because they’re just letting too many balls get into play from the beginning.
If I drop the GS minimum to 10, Michael Grove (.364 BABIP allowed) and Garrett Whitlock (.340) stand out. I like both of those guys a lot, assuming they’re in the rotation. You can check out this full data with the link below the paywall.
Negative Regression Expected
Some of the standout names here:
Tyler Wells
Tony Gonsolin
Corbin Burnes
Reese Olson
Blake Snell
Eury Perez
Gerrit Cole
I don’t think it’s right to expect the same BABIP from a Tyler Wells type as a Blake Snell type. Snell’s pitches are much better, moving more, etc. So it makes sense that those pitches would generate weaker contact more often - but you see with Snell there that his 2023 BABIP hugely out-paced his previous two numbers.
Same with Gerrit Cole there who went .269 in 2022, but you see that he’s not always able to control BABIP with a .305 mark in 2021. I don’t think we’re moving Cole off of SP2 no matter what, but for me there are a few of these signs with him that just make me want either draft Strider or wait an extra round or two to grab my ace. I don’t have a problem with Cole as a top 2 SP this year, but I don’t think I’ll draft him at all.
Very similar is Corbin Burnes, he saw his strikeout rate come down FIVE POINTS in 2023, but he still turned in a good season with a 3.39 ERA in 194 innings. But if that K% stays at 25% and the BABIP comes up toward .300, I think it’ll be a disappointing season for Burnes as a top-5 SP pick.
We’re moving on now, so here comes that paywall. Sign up today to get this piece and everything else I do, check out the about page here for more information.