Reviews, Previews, and Ranks: Cleveland Guardians

Nov 30, 2022

Giving another freebie out here, but if you want the rest of the teams and my full rankings, you have to become a paid member for $7/month.

The surprise team of the 2022 season was Cleveland. They won 92 games but really didn’t give us much for fantasy, so I think this will be a pretty quick one.

Pitchers

Shane Bieber

It’s been a pretty wild ride for Bieber.

2018: 19 GS, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 24.3% K%, 4.7% BB%, 11.4% SwStr%
2019: 33 GS, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 30.2% K%, 4.7% BB%, 14.0% SwStr%
2020: 12 GS, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 41.1% K%, 7.1% BB%., 17.1% SwStr%
2021: 16 GS, 3.17 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 33.1% K%, 8.1% BB%, 16.2% SwStr%
2022: 31 GS, 2.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 25.0% K%, 4.6% BB%, 13.8% SwStr%

You would have to call 2022 a big success for Bieber just by virtue of him getting back to 30 starts and 200 innings. The numbers were quite good as well, but it’s hard not to notice that big drop in K% and SwStr%. Obviously that 2020 season wasn’t a real thing, and it wasn’t hard to know that even the 33% K% in 2021 was inflated - but coming the whole way down to 25% was surprising.

He did improve as the year went on, with a 23.1% K% in his first nine starts and then a 25.8% mark over his next 22, but he was pretty much a mid-twenties guy over any stretch you look at.

He ramped up the cutter usage after the first couple of months, and threw that pitch a bunch against lefties after he started using it (30% usage against LHB after June 1st).

Here are the marks on all of his pitches

Two really great breaking balls. He attacks lefties and righties differently, but the splits were fine:

RHB: .238/.278/.352, 22.5% K%, 5.0% BB%
LHB: .221/.251/.340, 28.2% K%, 3.9% BB%

He was pretty darn consistent in delivery good CSW% and SwStr% marks after getting in his groove after a shaky May.

He got hit around on May 12th, but after that start he took off

25 GS, 2.64 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 25.8% K%, 4.1% BB%

That’s a fantasy ace for sure. I really love that we saw 200 innings out of Bieber and the arsenal is so deep and his command is still so good, I am a big fan of buying in on Bieber in 2023 as he’ll definitely be falling out of the top tier of SPs.

I think a good draft strategy will be to go hitter heavy early on and then soak up a few of the SPs from tiers 2 and 3, and Bieber will probably fall perfectly in line with that strategy.

Comps/RankArounds: Aaron Nola, Dylan Cease

Triston McKenzie

McKenzie took a step forward in 2022, but it was far from a consistent year for him.

Inconsistency has been his calling card. He will go out and have some of the best individual starts of the entire season, but then the next week go out and give up six runs. But in this case, the final season numbers are good

30 GS, 2.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 25.6% K%, 5.9% BB%, 28.7% CSW%, 14.1% SwStr%

In 2021 he did this:

24 GS, 4.95 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 27.5% K%, 11.7% BB%, 28.2% SW%, 13.5% SwStr%

So we see a massive drop in the walk rate there, which made all of the difference in the ERA and WHIP. What’s weird is that the CSW% stayed pretty low, but he did earn more whiffs.

Here’s the pitch arsenal stuff:

So he’s mostly four-seamers, but does have two other good pitches. He is basically a two-pitch guy when you consider the splits. He goes 55% FF and 32% CU to lefties, and then 57% FF and 29% SL to righties.

He put up a 12.9% SwStr% against lefties and a sick 15.1% SwStr% against righties, so he’s definitely more effective when he has the platoon advantage.

Over his last dozen starts, he was great:

12 GS, 31.4% CSW%, 15.8% SwStr%, 28.5% K%, 4.7% BB%, .270 xwOBA

Really impressive stuff there down the stretch and he was instrumental in getting the Guardians to the playoffs. It was extra great seeing him get deep into games there, but it wasn’t the toughest schedule either.

McKenzie is a tough one for sure. He will be 25 on Opening Day, so he has the youth thing going on - there’s definitely room for growth and he could certainly develop into one of the game’s best pitchers, but I think the price might be a little bit too high on him in 2023. I have some doubts that he can replicate a great walk rate, and regression to 8-9% would hurt pretty bad I think.

Comps/RankArounds: Logan Gilbert, Pablo Lopez

Cal Quantrill

He stayed relevant again in 2022 despite the inability to get strikeouts.

32 GS, 186.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 16.6% K%, 6.1% BB%, 24.6% CSW%

That’s a really, really low CSW%, which makes it surprising that Quantrill had the level of success he did (even though the success was limited - it’s not like a 3.38 ERA is fantastic).

This made me curious about the relationship between CSW% and ERA - and it’s not an incredibly strong one:

So it’s not impossible to put up a good ERA with a bad CSW%, but in general you are looking for guys with CSW% marks above 30%.

The CSW% is low mostly because of the lack of whiffs (9.0% SwStr%). He doesn’t have a single pitch with a standout SwStr%:

The GB% dropped by two points to 42.4% - so that’s not a very good number either, and the barrel rate came up to 7.5%. None of this stuff is good, and Quantrill only had a handful of really good starts for fantasy teams:

We have seen these types of guys have plenty of success, but it’s rare - and it’s not something I want to roll the dice on. I will have Quantrill very, very low in the rankings.

Comps/RankArounds: Kutter Crawford, Cole Irvin

Aaron Civale

Civale did not stay healthy in 2022 but had a very interesting season.

20 GS, 97 IP, 4.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 24.1% K%, 5.4% BB%, 28.7% CSW%, 11.4% SwStr%

So these numbers look bad, no doubt. However, the K% was growing late int he year and the BB% stayed great all year:

You like to see the blue and red lines separating there. From August 10th on (his final 8 starts), he did this:

43 IP, 12.8% SwStr%, 30.1% CSW%, 27.5% K%, 4.2% BB%, 3.6% Brl%, .247 xwOBA

That’s a 23% K%-BB%, very, very strong. The 12.8% SwStr% doesn’t match a 27.5% K%, but it does match something like a 25-26% mark.

Civale has all kinds of weapons at his disposal:

Against righties

Sinker (34% usage, 3.6% SwStr%)
Curveball (25%, 20.2%)
Cutter (22%, 14.8%)
Four-seam (10.5%, 3.4%)
Slider (6.0%, 10.0%)
Splitter (3.3%, 3.7%)

Against lefties

Cutter (49%, 10%)
Curveball (31%, 22.2%)
Sinker (9%, 1.5%)
Four-seam (7%, 3.8%)
Splitter (4.0%, 3.3% SwStr%)

So he has useful SwStr% marks on the cutter and curveball, and then he has a sinker and a four-seamer to mix in as well. All of this hasn’t led to much fantasy success for Civale yet, but he has had some bright moments and he’s still quite young (27).

So look, the guy posted an 18.7% K%-BB% last year. That’s going to be one of the best marks for pitchers around where he gets drafted - and it will have my more than willing to draft him in deep leagues.

Comps/RankArounds: Alex Wood, Kyle Bradish

Hitters

Jose Ramirez

Ramirez had another great year in 2022

685 PA, .278/.353/.512, 29 HR, 20 SB, 12% K%, 10.1% BB%

39 HR+SB with a good batting average and an absurd amount of RBI (126). He returned first-round value, and that was despite the fact that he was playing hurt for at least half the year. He hurt his hand in June and after that, his swing speed was definitely affected.

April-May: 9.8% Brl%, .372 xwOBA, 39.9% Hard-Hit%,
June on: 5.3% Brl%, .291 xwOBA, 35.7% Hard-Hit%

He kept putting tons of balls in play and racking up base hits, but you can see there that he just wasn’t hitting the ball with the same authority.

He has had surgery on that and expects to be 100% ready to go by the season’s start. That means his 29-homer total was low.

Ramirez is still just 30 years old and there’s nothing he doesn’t do really, really well for fantasy purposes. He’s a top-five player for me, I’m sliding him in ahead of Julio Rodriguez just because of the long history of greatness we’ve seen from him. I think I’ll end up with Trea Turner ahead of him, but I’m not all that certain - and where Trea lands in free agency may make the decision.

Comps/RankArounds: Trea Turner, Julio Rodriguez

Andres Gimenez

The 23-year-old had his best season in 2022 and things are really looking up for the man.

557 PA, .295/.366/.464, 17 HR, 21 SB, 20.1% K%, 6.1% BB%, 6.2% Brl%, .302 xwOBA

Great batting average, a good amount of steals, and a non-awful amount of power. I think there’s room for growth in the power department given his age and the impressive max exit velo we saw from him (113.6 mph).

He had his barrel rate around 10% in June and was slashing .310/.338/.545 on June 8th, he trailed off a bit throughout the season but still - a positive sign that he was able to barrel the ball up at a high rate early in the year.

The one thing that could help him with homers is if he hit more fly balls next year:

He seems to have the bat speed but just doesn’t have the swing path (or whatever) down. I really like these kinds of guys, because there’s just not much that has to be done to turn 17 homers into 27. Even if that doesn’t happen, he should put up a good batting average with his low strikeout rate and great foot speed, and he’ll steal you 15+ bags while he’s at it. Big fan of Gimenez for next year!

Comps/RankArounds: Ramon Laureano, Austin Meadows

Amed Rosario

Another surprisingly young hitter on this Cleveland team (he just turned 27), but a different profile than what we’ve discussed so far.

670 PA, .283/.312/.403, 11 HR, 18 SB, 16.6% K%, 3.7% BB%, 86 R, 71 RBI, 4.5% Brl%, .298 xwOBA

He swings a ton and therefore makes a ton of contact, but he has very little power in the bat.

He hits a bunch of ground balls and is very fast, which turns into a lot of singles and steals.

We’ve seen the same Rosario for years now, he has been in the league in 2017 and has a career .274/.308/.404 slash line, although it’s notable that he has hit above .280 since 2019. He can be counted on for a good batting average and 20 steals, and he can be a contributor in runs scored as well if he’s near the top of that lineup - which is in doubt right now since Kwan seems to have taken that role.

Overall, Rosario doesn’t have the upside I want, but if he’s cheap enough he’s certainly considerable as a guy who can hit .290 and steal 30 bags in a good year.

Comps/RankArounds: Luis Garcia, Alex Verdugo

Steven Kwan

He had a useful rookie year with Cleveland

638 PA, .298/.371/.400, 6 HR, 19 SB, 9.4% K%, 9.7% BB%, 1.4% Brl%, .304 xwOBA

The average and slugging did creep up as the year went on

But it still finished at a bad .400 SLG and there is just no swing speed here. His hardest-hit ball was 107.5 and he didn’t hit a single ball that was labeled a blast. There’s no power here, don’t fall for it.

So what do we need from a guy provided we can’t project for more than 10 homers? We need batting average, steals, and runs scored. Kwan gave us all of those (.298, 19, 89) - but he didn’t give us anything ELITE.

The contact rate and strikeout rate suggest that he COULD give us an elite batting average some day, but he doesn’t hit the ball hard so that does hurt him. I doubt he’ll ever bat below .280 - and .320 is certainly in the range of outcomes, but .290 seems to be the right projection. He’s also not a burner

Steven Kwan Max Sprint Speed: 28.4 ft/sec
Lg Average Max Sprint Speed: 27.2 ft/sec

So it would seem the steals are relatively capped. You could see 25, but that’s not going to a massive boost in that category next year. He could score 100 runs, but that’s also far from a guarantee since he doesn’t hit homers and is always dependent on other people to drive him in.

He did a ton of damage late in the year, which I think will inflate his draft price a bit. I have been trying to not get into the ADP while doing these ranks because I don’t want to be UNDER THE INFLUENCE, but here I go to check on Kwan.

Looks like he’s going around pick 120, which is ahead of guys like Vaughn, Stanton, Joe Ryan, Hunter Renfroe, Lucas Giolito, and Jorge Polanco - so yeah I’m going to be fully out on Kwan.

Comps/RankArounds: Amed Rosario, Alex Verdugo

Josh Naylor

ANOTHER guy here that is way younger than I expected. Naylor is just 25 years old. He had a decent year with Cleveland but once again ell short of the perceived upside.

498 PA, .256/.319/.452, 20 HR, 6 SB, 16.1% K%, 7.6% BB%, 8.6% Brl%, .327 xwOBA

Great strikeout rate, a strong contact rate, and a decent barrel rate with a good xwOBA. These are the reasons we get excited for this guy every year. Given the fact that he’s 25 (and not like 29 which is what I would’ve guessed like an idiot), we probably should stay excited at least for his potential upside.

Naylor was the only Guardian player with 400+ PA and a barrel rate above 8% (that’s about the league average). He added to that an 80.5% contact rate. Do you know how many hitters went for an 8%+ barrel rate and an 80%+ contact rate? SIX.

Juan Soto (12.4% Brl%, 80.6% Cont%)
Will Smith (10.3% Brl%, 80.7% Cont%)
Freddie Freeman (9.9% Brl%, 80.5% Cont%)
Mookie Betts (9.7% Brl%, 83.5% Cont%)
Josh Naylor (8.6% Brl%, 80.5% Cont%)
Nolan Arenado (8.2% Brl%, 80.9% Cont%)

His PA/HR was good but not great at 24.7 (20 homers in 494 PA). That has a lot to do with the 49% GB%. Come on Cleveland, get the ball off of the ground!

One thing I haven’t really been checking on is the pull/shift stuff. Shifts are banned next year, and Naylor was shifted on 77% of the time with his 42% pull rate (league average 37%). That’s good news for his batting average certainly.

Naylor is slotted in the clean-up spot for the Guardians right now, and I don’t see how that would change since he’s seemingly the only guy besides J-Ram that can hit the long ball here. If he stays healthy and lowers the GB%, I think he should have a pretty productive year - and the upside is huge.

Comps/RankArounds: Christian Yelich, Alec Bohm

Oscar Gonzalez

The 24-year-old had some big moments in the playoffs, but had a pretty encouraging regular season as well between some missed time.

AAA: 182 PA, .282/.308/.506, 9 HR, 0 SB
MLB: 382 PA, .293/.325/.459, 11 HR, 1 SB

Will Brennan

He spent most of the year in AAA, but he’s slated in to the starting lineup for the big league team right now.

AA: 157 PA, .311/.382/.504, 4 HR, 5 SB, 10.2% K%, 10.8% BB%
AAA: 433 PA, .316/.367/.471, 9 HR, 15 SB, 12.2% K%, 7.6% BB%
MLB: 45 PA, .357/.400/.500, 1 HR, 2 SB, 8.9% K%, 4.4% BB%

Clearly, the guy doesn’t strike out, but he also doesn’t hit a ton of homers. Huh, that sounds like literally every other hitter we have discussed here… are the Guardians doing this shit on purpose?

Hard to believe anything from 45 PA, but here are some more numbers from that time in the Majors

5.3% Brl%, 82.1% Cont%, .304 xwOBA, 42.1% HardHit%, 109 max velo, 53% GB%

A little bit more pop shown here then Rosario/Kwan, but obviously it comes with much less believability in his ability to consistently hit big league hitting. Still, an 82% Contact% and a 9% K% is impressive and significant even in 45 PA.

We have to rank him pretty low still because we don’t know if he’ll truly be a starter on Opening Day. If he is, he would seem to be a fine guy to add as your fifth outfielder as a super cheap draft pick with counting stat upside.

Comps/RankArounds: Triston Casas, Oscar Colas

That does it for the Guardians, we are closing in on the end here! Thanks for subscribing and reading.

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