Reviews, Previews, and Ranks: Milwaukee Brewers
Introduction & Glossary Post Here
We are into the teams that have tons of fantasy juice, the rankings are going to get interesting real quick. The Brewers had a good year, but couldn’t quite reach the postseason. They have a loaded starting rotation once again this year, and half the lineup is fantasy relevant as well. Off we go.
Pitchers
Corbin Burnes
We got what a reasonable person would have expected from Burnes in 2022. He could not replicate the 2021 Cy Young Award, which he never should have been expected to. Here are the stats from the last two seasons:
2021: 28 GS, 167 IP, 2.43 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 35.6% K%, 5.2% BB%, 18.4% SwStr%
2022: 33 GS, 202 IP, 3.07 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 30.5% K%, 6.4% BB%, 16.3% SwStr%
He threw more innings but got worse in every other category, but again - there’s nothing wrong with landing on a 24% K-BB% and a ridiculous 16.3% SwStr%.
The pitch mix didn’t change, because why would you change anything after winning a Cy Young?
Super similar numbers across the board there, but an expected drop in SwStr% on his most thrown pitch - the cutter.
The velo and spin are nearly unmatched by other starters, the FX table is on its green like Irish Spring:
Burnes is real good!
He did have a somewhat scary stretch in the numbers last year, however you won’t be able to tell when that came if you’re looking at the CSW% and SwStr% chart:
From August 29th through September 19th:
5 GS, 32.1 IP, 5.29 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 25.0% K%, 4.5% BB%
Still a 20.5% K-BB% there, but he gave up 1.7 HR/9 in that stretch. It did function to raise the ERA to a more “very good” spot rather than elite number he had before that.
This might actually function to make Burnes cheaper than he should be in 2023. He’s an ace, and I’m certain he’ll end up in my top five, if not top three.
Comps/RankArounds: Sandy Alcantara
Brandon Woodruff
The picture of consistency!
2019: 122 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 29% K%, 6.1% BB%, 44.6% GB%
2020: 74 IP, 3.05 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 31.1% K%, 6.1% BB%, 49.4% GB%
2021: 179 IP, 2.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 29.8% K%, 6.1% BB%, 41.5% GB%
2022: 153 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 30.6% K%, 6.8% BB%, 37.6% GB%
So yeah I think we should project Woodruff for a 30% K% and a 6% BB%. This is some Khris Davis .247 stuff!
The downside, I guess, is that it another year shy of 190 innings. He has never reached 180, which stinks, I suppose - but it doesn’t seem like something that should have us downgrading him hugely.
The advanced marks were sparkling again:
15.4% SwStr%, 32.3% CSW%, .272 xwOBA
The only change we’ve seen is the falling ground-ball rate. That seems to be because the four-seamer usage has been increased as the sinker usage has fallen.
2021 → 2022
FF :: 33.7% → 38.4%
SI :: 26.7% → 21.5%
CU:: 16.7% → 12.6%
CH :: 14.2% → 16.3%
SL :: 8.7% → 11.3%
Fewer sinkers and more four-seamers means more whiffs, fewer ground balls, and often more home runs given up. That all happened with Woody in 2022, but overall it was not a change we need to worry about. His arsenal is great:
The changeup was one of the best pitches in the entire league, which is awesome to see since that wasn’t even really a huge part of his arsenal while he was coming up.
Woodruff has a rock solid floor and a pretty huge ceiling if he can finally stay healthy for 190+ innings. He will also probably not even be drafted in the top tier of starters, which gives us the opportunity to get him as our ace in the third or fourth round, which seems like a really sound draft strategy to go about this year - but of course my opinion on that can change as we move forward. I love Woodruff once again!
Comps/RankArounds: Shane McClanahan, Dylan Cease
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