Reviews, Previews, and Ranks: New York Mets
Introduction & Glossary Post Here
Pitchers
Max Scherzer
I don’t think it’s worthwhile to really dig in on Scherzer, he’s still really good:
Another year with a 30%+ K%, and this time he took the walk rate below 4.5%. The SwStr% and CSW% were great, there is just nothing to complain about here.
The only thing to mention is that he has not exceeded 180 innings since 2018. He’s gone 172, 67, 179, and 145 over the last four seasons. If he can get 180 again, that’s beautiful and he’ll be a top-five pitcher, but there is the risk with a guy that will be turning 39 during the season.
The risk is nowhere near the risk presented by deGrom, so I have ranked him pretty high, right now he’s #6 behind Burnes, Alcantara, Cole, Woodruff, and McClanahan.
Comps/RankArounds: Woodruff, McClanahan
Justin Verlander
I was almost done with this post, and then I went for a run before finishing it up. While I was running, it was announced that Verlander had signed a two-year deal with the Mets.
As if by magic, Verlander, at the age of 39, led the freaking league in ERA after missing all of 2021 and only throwing 73 pitches in 2020.
175 IP, 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 27.8% K%, 4.4% BB%, 27.9% CSW%, 13.0% SwStr%
He has long been a 50%+ fastball guy, so that wasn’t new.
What was new was a lower SwStr%, which came in at 13%.
His high K% really doesn’t make sense in tandem with the 28% CSW% and 13% SwStr%:
But Verlander pretty much transcends statistical analysis. He clearly just knows #HowToPitch. He’s deceptive or he has pinpoint command or he’s paying off hitters or something, who knows.
I don’t see why we would doubt that Verlander can be fantastic once again in 2022 after seeing what he did in 2021. If he’s going as a top ten SP, I probably won’t have any of him just because it feels dumb to lead my pitching staff with a forty year old posting underwhelming CSW% and SwStr% marks - but whatever he’ll win another Cy Young and I’ll eat a bag on it.
Comps/RankArounds: Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani
Tylor Megill
Megill was an interesting case in 2022. We should go into a bit of detail here.
Megill was pretty much undrafted, as his spot in the rotation was unclear and we hadn’t seen much from him in the past. But he came out of the gate hot, pitching like a bonafide ace.
6 GS, 33.1 IP, 2.43 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 27.7% K%, 6.2% BB%
That’s a beautiful 21.5% K%-BB%. It came with a convincing 15.2% SwStr%. In those six starts, his arsenal broke down like this:
So he had super high fastball usage, but you can see why with the sick 16.9% SwStr% and 33.5% CSW%. You rarely find SwStr% rates on four-seamers above even 14%, so I don’t think that’s something that would have stuck - but look, it was clearly a very, very good fastball.
Add on to that “good not great” changeups and sliders and you have a really nice-looking pitch mix.
Megill is huge (6’ 7’’), so that allows him to get a ton of extension:
His stuff is good. I doubt he would have kept up a 28% K% all year since that four-seamer was due for some SwStr% regression and his other pitches fell short of elite at getting whiffs, but I think a 24-26% K% would have been about where it landed and that’s fine.
In his seventh start, he got roughed up and then hit the IL with a lat issue. He came back in June and made two starts that didn’t go very well, and then hit the IL again with a shoulder issue. So those are two injuries you don’t want to see from a pitcher. He was on the shelf from June 17th to September 19th, and he came back just in a relief pitcher role from there on.
Megill will almost surely be in the rotation in 2023 with the departure of Jacob deGrom. Right now, roster resource is showing Megill as the #3 guy with David Peterson and Elieser Hernandez behind him - so if he’s healthy, he is going to get a really good shot at being a starter for the Mets next year.
In 2021:
18 GS, 26.1% K%, 7.1% BB%, 4.52 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 27.7% CSW%, 13.1% SwStr%
So we saw reason for optimism there with the good K-BB and the strong SwStr%. I think it’s perfectly fair to project a 13%-14% SwStr% next year, and he’s never had any big issues with the walk - so, there is lots to like here.
The injuries are an issue, even in 2021 he managed just 130 innings between the minors and Majors, so it’s hard to imagine he can ramp it up to 170 or something, but Megill is good and he’s being drafted very, very late. I like the idea of taking a shot on him.
Doing some more searching, it looks like there’s more pessimism than I thought about if Megill is really a guy the Mets want in the rotation. They seem to be aggressively pursuing Rodon/Verlander, so this rotation will almost surely add another arm or two, which would push Megill down.
We will have to wait to see how the Mets rotation is shaping up in February to really get a good rank on Megill. Maybe it’s best to just not draft him for now until we have that info.. but look if he’s in the rotation you’re going to see the ADP shoot up 50-100 picks, so he’s a risk/reward pick in early drafts.
Comps/RankArounds (if in rotation): Mike Clevinger, Eric Lauer, Bailey Ober
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